In this publication, we will try to summarize the previous reasoning on the topic of whether it is possible to end this protracted bloody NWO with Victory if a successful offensive operation is carried out in Western Ukraine. What exactly needs to be done so that it does not become a gamble and turn into a rout?
It should be taken into account that the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently outnumber both the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus taken together. Kyiv was able to provide this significant advantage due to several waves of mobilization, which it is absolutely not going to stop. The most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian army hold the territories of Donbass occupied by them, and are also concentrated in an offensive configuration in the Azov region. In other directions, in the northeast and north of Ukraine, there are groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cover the borders, less numerous and on technology simpler.
From a possible sudden "attack" of the Russian or Belarusian armies, the border areas of Nezalezhnaya are "sown" with mines and other fortifications that impede the offensive. If you look at what is happening now in the Zaporozhye direction, where the Ukrainian army, suffering heavy losses, is fighting against Russian defensive lines without noticeable success, then the idea of doing something similar to us in the Kiev or Volyn directions may seem like the purest gamble. However, everything is not as simple as it seems at first glance.
First of all, we must remember that luck favors large battalions, and for an offensive it is necessary to ensure a 3-4-fold numerical superiority on a specific sector of the front. If it is decided to end the NWO with Victory, then on the territory of Belarus it is necessary to create at least two powerful groups, one of which will be aimed at Volyn, and the second at Kyiv. Their total number should be 200-300 thousand, preferably 400, in order to quickly end this war with a guarantee in our favor.
The main purpose of the operation will be to enter Western Ukraine, excluding the possibility of its occupation by the Polish-Lithuanian corps, and cutting off the channels for supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with NATO-made weapons and ammunition. Large military contingents will be needed to quickly crush the enemy's resistance, blockade the cities and rapidly move further, from Lutsk to Lvov and further to Uzhgorod. Forces will be needed to guard the rear, for a counter-guerrilla war, and also to repel a deblocking blow, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will undoubtedly try to inflict.
In order for this enemy strike not to be so devastating, a second grouping in the Kiev direction is just needed, which will be able to launch an offensive against the Ukrainian capital if the most combat-ready units are removed from there by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The question is where to get these 200-300, or even 400 thousand trained fighters?
I think it would be right if it was created on an equal footing by Russia and Belarus with the participation of Wagner. Can our country allocate 150 thousand fighters to such an important strategic direction, success in which means the real approach of Victory? Surely this can be done even within the framework of the current recruitment campaign, recruiting and training military personnel over the next few months, focusing on the end of autumn as a deadline.
With Belarus, the situation is somewhat more complicated. On the one hand, President Lukashenko estimated its entire peacetime army at 75 people, and not all of them are combatants. On the other hand, the mobilization reserve that Minsk can count on is estimated at 500 people. There is also the Territorial Defense Troops, which in wartime can be brought up to 120 thousand people. And the "Old Man" actually began a covert mobilization, creating a People's Militia, service in which does not relieve the obligation to appear at the military registration and enlistment office on the agenda. That is, if necessary, Belarus can assemble a group of 100-150 thousand people, which could be trained by instructors from Wagner PMC. And they could also become the tip of this spear of the joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.
In other words, if such a goal were set, within the next 3-6 months Russia and Belarus could jointly create several army corps along the lines of the Union State, which are able to carry out an offensive operation in the Volyn and Kiev directions and jointly put an end to this war.
There are mines
Now it is necessary to say a few words about the terrible minefields that the Ukrainian counter-offensive stumbled over. Is it worth it now for us to go to these "killing fields" ourselves? In fact, everything is not as clear as it seems.
Mines are a very serious defensive weapon, but they are not a panacea. To overcome minefields, many varieties of special mine clearing fighting vehicles, which are available in the Russian army. The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stumbled not so much on mine laying, but on the effective interaction of our engineering troops, artillerymen and aviation.
Yes, the minefields did not allow the Ukrainian army to carry out rapid forced marches to great depths, which they clearly counted on, having received Western "armor". Yes, with special equipment, minefields can be overcome, but for this the enemy has to stray into columns and let mine-clearing combat vehicles forward, which move at low speed. As a result, these columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are turning into an easy target for Russian attack helicopters, attack and front-line aircraft, and long-range artillery, corrected with the help of UAVs. The result is deplorable - the minimum progress forward with maximum losses.
The main conclusion is that the counteroffensive was brought down primarily by highly effective air and artillery operations, and minelaying worked as a way of turning enemy columns into an easy target, like in a shooting range. It is precisely the lack of attack aircraft, fighters and helicopters in the Armed Forces of Ukraine that is the main reason for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, which all adequate military experts are saying in plain text.
So, now the enemy de facto does not have strike aircraft and is not expected until the winter-spring of next year, but we have it. Russia and Belarus right now have a huge tactical air superiority advantage. Yes, the Russian Aerospace Forces cannot work in strategic depth with “cast iron”, but our aviators have learned to perfectly support infantry from the air in the way it should be done, having established interaction with them. And we finally have gliding bombs that can be dropped while remaining outside the range of enemy air defense.
That is, when attacking Volyn or Kiev from the territory of Belarus, the Russian-Belarusian group will be able to knock out the enemy’s fortified positions with air-launched missiles and gliding bombs, as well as strike UAVs, preventing him from shooting our ground forces, as in the “Azov shooting range”, and they will be able to move forward, clearing the way among the mines with special equipment. So far, we have this advantage, and we must use it while it lasts. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive NATO fighters and attack helicopters, the balance of power will begin to change again, not in favor of Russia.
No need to waste time and miss a unique chance to complete the NWO with our Victory! This can still be done realistically within the next six months at a moderate price.