What is needed so that the offensive on the Belarusian front does not wait for the fate of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

July 25 2023 101

In this publication, we will try to summarize the previous reasoning on the topic of whether it is possible to end this protracted bloody NWO with Victory if a successful offensive operation is carried out in Western Ukraine. What exactly needs to be done so that it does not become a gamble and turn into a rout?

Large battalions

It should be taken into account that the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently outnumber both the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus taken together. Kyiv was able to provide this significant advantage due to several waves of mobilization, which it is absolutely not going to stop. The most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian army hold the territories of Donbass occupied by them, and are also concentrated in an offensive configuration in the Azov region. In other directions, in the northeast and north of Ukraine, there are groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cover the borders, less numerous and on technology simpler.

From a possible sudden "attack" of the Russian or Belarusian armies, the border areas of Nezalezhnaya are "sown" with mines and other fortifications that impede the offensive. If you look at what is happening now in the Zaporozhye direction, where the Ukrainian army, suffering heavy losses, is fighting against Russian defensive lines without noticeable success, then the idea of doing something similar to us in the Kiev or Volyn directions may seem like the purest gamble. However, everything is not as simple as it seems at first glance.

First of all, we must remember that luck favors large battalions, and for an offensive it is necessary to ensure a 3-4-fold numerical superiority on a specific sector of the front. If it is decided to end the NWO with Victory, then on the territory of Belarus it is necessary to create at least two powerful groups, one of which will be aimed at Volyn, and the second at Kyiv. Their total number should be 200-300 thousand, preferably 400, in order to quickly end this war with a guarantee in our favor.

The main purpose of the operation will be to enter Western Ukraine, excluding the possibility of its occupation by the Polish-Lithuanian corps, and cutting off the channels for supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with NATO-made weapons and ammunition. Large military contingents will be needed to quickly crush the enemy's resistance, blockade the cities and rapidly move further, from Lutsk to Lvov and further to Uzhgorod. Forces will be needed to guard the rear, for a counter-guerrilla war, and also to repel a deblocking blow, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will undoubtedly try to inflict.

In order for this enemy strike not to be so devastating, a second grouping in the Kiev direction is just needed, which will be able to launch an offensive against the Ukrainian capital if the most combat-ready units are removed from there by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The question is where to get these 200-300, or even 400 thousand trained fighters?

I think it would be right if it was created on an equal footing by Russia and Belarus with the participation of Wagner. Can our country allocate 150 thousand fighters to such an important strategic direction, success in which means the real approach of Victory? Surely this can be done even within the framework of the current recruitment campaign, recruiting and training military personnel over the next few months, focusing on the end of autumn as a deadline.

With Belarus, the situation is somewhat more complicated. On the one hand, President Lukashenko estimated its entire peacetime army at 75 people, and not all of them are combatants. On the other hand, the mobilization reserve that Minsk can count on is estimated at 500 people. There is also the Territorial Defense Troops, which in wartime can be brought up to 120 thousand people. And the "Old Man" actually began a covert mobilization, creating a People's Militia, service in which does not relieve the obligation to appear at the military registration and enlistment office on the agenda. That is, if necessary, Belarus can assemble a group of 100-150 thousand people, which could be trained by instructors from Wagner PMC. And they could also become the tip of this spear of the joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.

In other words, if such a goal were set, within the next 3-6 months Russia and Belarus could jointly create several army corps along the lines of the Union State, which are able to carry out an offensive operation in the Volyn and Kiev directions and jointly put an end to this war.

There are mines

Now it is necessary to say a few words about the terrible minefields that the Ukrainian counter-offensive stumbled over. Is it worth it now for us to go to these "killing fields" ourselves? In fact, everything is not as clear as it seems.

Mines are a very serious defensive weapon, but they are not a panacea. To overcome minefields, many varieties of special mine clearing fighting vehicles, which are available in the Russian army. The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stumbled not so much on mine laying, but on the effective interaction of our engineering troops, artillerymen and aviation.

Yes, the minefields did not allow the Ukrainian army to carry out rapid forced marches to great depths, which they clearly counted on, having received Western "armor". Yes, with special equipment, minefields can be overcome, but for this the enemy has to stray into columns and let mine-clearing combat vehicles forward, which move at low speed. As a result, these columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are turning into an easy target for Russian attack helicopters, attack and front-line aircraft, and long-range artillery, corrected with the help of UAVs. The result is deplorable - the minimum progress forward with maximum losses.

The main conclusion is that the counteroffensive was brought down primarily by highly effective air and artillery operations, and minelaying worked as a way of turning enemy columns into an easy target, like in a shooting range. It is precisely the lack of attack aircraft, fighters and helicopters in the Armed Forces of Ukraine that is the main reason for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, which all adequate military experts are saying in plain text.

So, now the enemy de facto does not have strike aircraft and is not expected until the winter-spring of next year, but we have it. Russia and Belarus right now have a huge tactical air superiority advantage. Yes, the Russian Aerospace Forces cannot work in strategic depth with “cast iron”, but our aviators have learned to perfectly support infantry from the air in the way it should be done, having established interaction with them. And we finally have gliding bombs that can be dropped while remaining outside the range of enemy air defense.

That is, when attacking Volyn or Kiev from the territory of Belarus, the Russian-Belarusian group will be able to knock out the enemy’s fortified positions with air-launched missiles and gliding bombs, as well as strike UAVs, preventing him from shooting our ground forces, as in the “Azov shooting range”, and they will be able to move forward, clearing the way among the mines with special equipment. So far, we have this advantage, and we must use it while it lasts. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive NATO fighters and attack helicopters, the balance of power will begin to change again, not in favor of Russia.

No need to waste time and miss a unique chance to complete the NWO with our Victory! This can still be done realistically within the next six months at a moderate price.

Information

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Nelton

+2

25 July 2023 15: 18

the enemy de facto has no attack aircraft and is not expected until the winter-spring of next year, but we have it.

Based on the thesis that

the West is planting the Armed Forces of Ukraine exactly as many such weapons as to hold the front line

then even before it turns out to starve out which thread of Sarny, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will massively have both fighters (with vacation pilots) and air defense systems.
And it will be with our shock group, as with the 2nd shock group on Volkhovsky ...
1. voznesensky
  
  +2
  
  26 July 2023 03: 48
  
  If we proceed from the thesis that "the West throws up the Armed Forces of Ukraine exactly as much ...
  
  It seems to me that it is necessary to proceed not from your, or anyone else's, ASSUMPTION (you have a "thesis"), but from the CALCULATION of what exactly from weapons and in what time frame the West CAN deliver to Ukraine. It is not at all a fact that your assumption, dear Nelton, reflects the real political and technical (for today !!!) possibilities of the West to supply "exactly as many" weapons and in such a time frame as is necessary to "hold the front line." The states at the moment (!) Are not able to do whatever they want. There are many reasons for this, both political and technical... I hope that we will find people who will be able to assess the real situation with the supply of weapons to Ukraine for the next half a year. AND
  
  with our strike force it will not be like with the 2nd strike force on Volkhovsky ...
  
  (in 1941-42)
  1. Nelton
    
    +2
    
    26 July 2023 13: 27
    
    Quote from voznesensky
    real political and technical (for today !!!) possibilities of the West to supply "exactly so many" weapons and in such a time frame
    
    I admit that I overestimate the possibilities of the West.
    But in such aspects it is better to overdo it than to be capricious.
    
    In terms of aviation, they definitely have reserves.
    And it's not just F16.
    
    In addition, now the West explicitly prohibits hitting with its long-range missiles on the old regions of the Russian Federation (and, of course, the Republic of Belarus).
    And if this ban is lifted, then the strikes on aviation bases will become mutual.
    Given the advantage of the West in space intelligence, their strikes will be more accurate than ours.
    
    Here is the news today:
    
    ... 24 Storm Shadow missiles were fired from Su-4 bombers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: 3 at the ammunition depot near Volny, and 1 at the repair base near Novostepnoye, which hit targets.
    
    those. the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have combat-ready aircraft, which are still based somewhere, despite the fact that the range of our missiles is enough to hit any point on the territory of Ukraine.
    1. voznesensky
      
      0
      
      26 July 2023 21: 59
      
      I don't oppose you, Nelton. I just expressed my belief that
      
      as it was in 1941-42 on Volkhovsky
      
      will not happen again. If only because, I hope, neither the General Staff nor the Supreme Commander have yet forgotten the recent lesson in the fall of 2022, unlike the lessons of the Second World War.
Sergey Latyshev

-2

25 July 2023 15: 25

In the meantime, the Old Man has not recognized either Crimea or new territories ..
Maybe, of course, spit, and start killing all opponents as well, without declaring war and recognizing Crimea ... but it would be better to first recognize Crimea, and then start bombing Kyiv ...
1. skeptic
  
  +2
  
  25 July 2023 18: 06
  
  Quote: Sergey Latyshev
  In the meantime, the Old Man did not recognize either the Crimea or the new territories.
  
  For small states, this is the option of the least losses, both in image and economically. Until Belarus gets into a squabble, no one will arrange sabotage on its territory, creating a "precedent for retaliatory actions." It is better for Belarusians to throw in the necessary components for Russian weapons, while remaining a neutral party to the conflict. It may well turn out that it is precisely this status that will be most necessary, at the final stage, in resolving the conflict.
  Even now, taking the Wagner out of harm's way, Lukashenka is helping his country and Russia, while at the same time pulling back significant forces of the Ukronats.
Bakht

+4

25 July 2023 15: 43

At the moment, there is no question of any participation of Belarus in the war. As there are no signs of a strike from the north. There is nothing but projectors.
It will take not even six months to create a strike force. And Lukashenka will not risk his people.

For the sake of interest, a question for experts in military affairs and technology. What is the range of the Lancets? And can a strike force (no matter Russian, Ukrainian, Belarusian) get out from under the umbrella of military air defense and electronic warfare systems? It is unlikely that in modern conditions someone will dare to send a strike force a couple of hundred kilometers away into a deep raid. This is not 1941 or 1944. Guderianov, Mansteinov, Konev and Zhukov are not visible on the horizon. And the encirclement of cities will require much more than a group of half a million.
1. 1_2
  
  +1
  
  25 July 2023 16: 54
  
  like up to 60km, but you need a UAV repeater to communicate beyond the radio horizon
2. Sergei Fonov
  
  +3
  
  25 July 2023 17: 01
  
  Lukashenka took Wagner in order to prepare the army, but he will not send it to the war, because the ally does not dominate in the NWO, and this is an alarming sign, why waste resources ahead of time, if the outcome of the war really threatens Belarus, then the Old Man will think how to get out of the situation with minimal losses, and it’s not a fact that it will be a war. In general, to pin hopes on ten million Belarus, Russia with its 143 million, is somehow strange, given the fact that Ukraine has about 40 million people.
3. voznesensky
  
  0
  
  26 July 2023 04: 46
  
  It is unlikely that in modern conditions someone will dare to send a strike group a couple of hundred kilometers into a deep raid ... (Bakht (Bakhtiyar)
  
  You, dear, did not understand something about what has been proposed for a long time and by many (including your obedient servant), - I hope, and is being prepared! - the offensive of our armed forces from the borders of Belarus in the direction of the south and southwest to the western borders of present-day Ukraine. Of course, there was no talk of any "raid" behind enemy lines by any strike force, and now there is no talk. We are talking about a decisive, FULL-SCALE offensive by our Armed Forces (most likely with the participation of the Armed Forces of the BR), which should predetermine the outcome of this war and end with our Victory. Another option, providing for some kind of local "raid on the rear" (a la Kovpak / Vershigora), would naturally have sad consequences for us. I believe that in our General Staff, with all the criticism they deserve, they are still not complete ignoramuses ...
  1. Bakht
    
    +1
    
    26 July 2023 06: 38
    
    Dear, did you notice only the word "raid"?
    In the Kupyansk direction (according to data that are being published), a group of 150 thousand people, 900 tanks, hundreds of pieces of artillery was assembled. Promotion is measured at 4-6 km per week. And up to 10 km along the front.
    This, of course, is much better than tens and hundreds of meters per month. But ... this grouping will not come out from under the umbrella of military air defense and the range of cannon artillery. I asked about the range of the Lancets. It is 40-50 km.
    No "full-scale" offensive is foreseen. Only if the front crumbles and the Armed Forces lose control. I also believe that not complete ignoramuses sit in the General Staff. That is why the proposed offensive from Belarus looks like a gamble. With the real size and combat capability of the Belarusian army (and its combat capability and motivation is a pig in a poke), Old Man would protect his territory.
    An increase in the number of Russian Armed Forces by 400 thousand people looks exactly the same adventure. This involves a new mobilization and the creation of 2-3 more full-fledged army associations. There are no resources for this. Just as there is no adequate mobilization resource.
    You can discuss this option. Nobody forbids. In real life, it is not feasible.
    1. voznesensky
      
      0
      
      26 July 2023 21: 16
      
      You can discuss this option. Nobody forbids. In real life, it is not feasible.
      
      Thanks for the permission to "discuss". I will definitely use this. I do not agree with the categoricalness of your judgments. It is known that the necessary quality of any analytically thinking person is his ability to doubt his arguments.
      1. Bakht
        
        +1
        
        26 July 2023 21: 29
        
        I doubt it. If you notice, I often use the expression "at the moment." That is, I am stating a fact. And even in the last post it is written verbatim
        
        In real life it is not feasible.
        
        That is, under real conditions. And that's what I'm sure of and no doubt about it. And this "in real life" will be relevant, at least until the summer.
  2. Sergei Fonov
    
    0
    
    26 July 2023 14: 10
    
    Oleg Petrovich! This article is a reflection on a possible future. To prepare an offensive, it is necessary to wear down the enemy, prepare reserves, people, equipment, food supplies and means of delivering them to personnel, and much more. So far, we are not observing the preparation of a decisive offensive, in no sector, the front is standing, and apparently this suits everyone. We don’t have a war, we have a NVO, we are preparing a parade, capitalist Russia will celebrate the Soviet holiday, Navy Day, and the sailors, and not only them, will commemorate the dead sailors and the cruiser Moscow.
    1. voznesensky
      
      0
      
      26 July 2023 20: 57
      
      In general, everything is correct, Sergey. But... 1) The fact that "while we are not observing preparations ..." does not at all indicate that it is not being conducted. On the contrary, it would be very strange if we knew about it. 2) I don't know what you mean when you say "this seems to suit everyone". Judging by what exactly? - By the fact that everyone knows, this suits far from "everyone"! Even in the States themselves. Not to mention continental Europe (with rare exceptions) and our leadership.
      1. Sergei Fonov
        
        +1
        
        27 July 2023 16: 24
        
        Oleg Petrovich! In modern conditions, it is impossible to hide the mobilization, the Internet, social networks. What do I mean, that a low-key war suits everyone? War, like politics, is the art of the possible, Ukraine, for a number of reasons, cannot defeat the Russian Federation, Russia, in turn, has not yet transferred the country to a military footing, there is no mobilization, and there is no reliable communication. There is no information on many positions, so we can only judge from reports from the front. Not everyone is satisfied with how you write, I agree that many in the USA and the West would be happy with the victory of Ukraine, but this is not the case, and Ukraine will not have GREAT MOBILIZATION OPPORTUNITIES, and equipment without fighters is metal. Our leadership is also in some way To a certain extent, it suited, at the first stage, the "Crimean Syndrome" probably simply dominated, although by and large there was no analysis of the Crimean events of 2014, and if they did, it was superficial. In short, Ukraine wants, but cannot, and Russia can, but so far does not really want to. Although, in my opinion, the delay in the NWO has a negative impact on the domestic political agenda.
Bakht

+1

25 July 2023 15: 55

Off topic, just to understand Russia's strategy.

The Russia-Africa summit is about to open in a few days. What are the assumptions that Russia will offer African countries?
1. 1_2
  
  -2
  
  25 July 2023 16: 56
  
  well, as usual, he will offer to collect Lada Granta or UAZ. and extract oil and gas. liberals can’t even offer anything more to the Russians
  1. Bakht
    
    +2
    
    25 July 2023 17: 07
    
    I'm guessing heavily discounted or even free grain.
    
    How is this related to Ukraine? In my opinion, a military solution in Ukraine is not a priority. The calculation is made on the duration of the conflict.
    1. UAZ 452
      
      +1
      
      25 July 2023 17: 33
      
      The duration of the conflict is more detrimental to the side that started it of their own choice. Both wars, which remained in history as Patriotic, began for our country with the invasion of foreign armies into its territory, and not vice versa.
      1. Bakht
        
        0
        
        25 July 2023 17: 53
        
        The duration of the conflict affects both sides. Again, who started first has nothing to do with the duration of the conflict.
        
        Based on the interests of Russia, ending the war with a large number of victims is disastrous. Therefore, I do not expect major offensive operations. Only if the APU will crumble. But so far there are no such prerequisites.
        
        UAZ 452
        
        -2
        
        25 July 2023 22: 02
        
        When you are a side that has undergone... liberation, when you see photos of liberated cities that look like Mariupol and Bakhmut, this does not directly affect the duration of the conflict, but it greatly affects your stamina. Simply because you represent your own, your home in the place of these cities. And some irresponsible citizens of Ukraine, poisoned by enemy propaganda, for some reason are not delighted with the prospect of liberation.
        
        Bakht
        
        +6
        
        25 July 2023 22: 20
        
        In order not to end up in the position of "citizens of Ukraine who are not enthusiastic about liberation," it was not necessary to destroy other citizens of Ukraine who were not enthusiastic about the Maidan.
        
        Everything is simple here. Old as the world principle "you sow a wind, you will reap a whirlwind". Or from Leviticus
        
        “a fracture for a fracture, an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth; as he did damage to [the body] of a man, so it must be done to him ”(Leviticus 24:20)
        
        scolopendra
        
        +1
        
        28 July 2023 14: 09
        
        In order not to end up in the position of "citizens of Ukraine who are not enthusiastic about liberation," it was not necessary to destroy other citizens of Ukraine who were not enthusiastic about the Maidan.
        
        Is what you write about the inevitability of punishing all citizens of Ukraine for the crimes of 2014? That is, by offering them to stop the defense, you propose to accept the punishment?
        
        Bakht
        
        +2
        
        28 July 2023 14: 37
        
        I am opposed to "collective punishment".
        Citizens of Ukraine, of course, can continue to resist. And "kill Muscovites." But then there is no need to cry that they are also killed.
        
        Specifically, according to the "Russians" in Ukraine. Their language, culture, and faith are being taken away. Before their eyes, the Jew is selling the Fatherland to the Poles and Americans. What are they fighting for?
        
        Bakht
        
        +2
        
        25 July 2023 22: 38
        
        “I saw something,” Graeber said. - And heard a lot. I know the war is lost. And I know that we continue to fight only so that the government, the party and the people who started all this remain in power for some time and can do even more trouble.
        
        - You have to go back to the front? Pohlman finally asked.
        - I can refuse. Then I'll be hanged or shot.
        
        E.M. Remarque "A time to live and a time to die"
        
        guest
        
        +2
        
        25 July 2023 22: 57
        
        Quote: UAZ 452
        when you see photos of liberated cities that look like Mariupol and Bakhmut
        
        And who brought these cities to this? After all, it was Bandera who destroyed these cities.
        
        scolopendra
        
        -1
        
        28 July 2023 14: 27
        
        It remains to understand why:
        1. The Banedrovites have not destroyed these cities in the previous 8 years.
        2. Bandera does not destroy cities in the center and west of the country.
        
        guest
        
        +1
        
        28 July 2023 14: 31
        
        Quote: Scolopendra
        It remains to understand why
        
        And why understand that, it is called the scorched earth tactics.
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        +1
        
        26 July 2023 00: 44
        
        Quote: UAZ 452
        some irresponsible citizens of Ukraine, poisoned by enemy propaganda, for some reason are not delighted with the prospect of liberation
        
        unfortunately, these citizens did not expect that they would have to answer for the burning of people in Odessa for the murder of the children of the Donbass .... they didn’t care about those innocent people how they didn’t give a damn about their grandfathers and fathers who loved Russia the USSR, and even now they seem to care more my clothes and real estate because it can suffer ... I don’t feel sorry for them and their opinion doesn’t interest me
        
        Do not be afraid of enemies - in the worst case, they can kill you.
        Do not be afraid of your friends - at worst they can betray you.
        Fear the indifferent - they do not kill or betray, but with their tacit consent, treason and lies exist on earth.
        
        Nelton
        
        +2
        
        27 July 2023 16: 40
        
        Quote: UAZ 452
        who look like Mariupol
        
        Mariupol looks like this in some places:
        
        True, I strongly doubt that these footage was seen in Ukraine, and if they did, they did not dismiss it as fake.
        
        So yes, the motivation to defend Bakhmut, so that your native Chernigov / Poltava would not be turned into Bakhmut, is more than understandable and serious.
        Even if the enemy has serious motives.
        Or even so - especially if you understand that the enemy has serious motives for that.
      2. Vlad55
        
        +1
        
        25 July 2023 22: 52
        
        Oh, right, they said "A", but do you have the courage to say "B"?)
        
        Bakht
        
        +3
        
        25 July 2023 23: 24
        
        I understand that you misunderstood me. A quote from Remarque refers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine .. So I have the courage to say in plain text "The soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting so that the fascist regime of post-Maidan Ukraine can commit its crimes for some more time."
      3. Sergei Fonov
        
        +1
        
        27 July 2023 16: 53
        
        The conflict began back in 1991, when we called our Russians Ukraine, and gave Kravchuk a label to reign. We gave up our lands. Now, when there is a war going on for these lands and Russia is subject to sanctions, when we quarreled with many states, which prevents us from declaring the events that took place earlier as a coup. For 23 years, the Russian Federation fed the Nazi state with cheap raw materials and debt forgiveness. As in the well-known comedy, Kemsk was first given a parish, now we are retaking it back. There is an interpretation of the history of the creation and collapse of the USSR, but there is also a history of the USSR based on historical truth.
1_2

0

25 July 2023 16: 52

The talker said that if, like, psheks climb into the Zapadenschina, then this is none of his business. the main thing is that they don’t think to attack RB. and not Dimon, who made a gift to the Norwegians in his time, like he also does not mind throwing the Zapadenschina to the Poles. probably believing that local natives are not subject to reformatting in the field of the Russian world. only the Poles need territory, and they will drive the local Russophobic natives to ... the Russian Federation. so no one in the RF Ministry of Defense will twitch. if psheks climb in, they will stay there until the Russian Army knocks them out. it’s another matter if the psheks of their soldiers are dragged to the Donbass, then Govorun should be responsible for the bazaar, and will have to deliver a TNW warning strike on Warsaw
1. Bakht
  
  +2
  
  25 July 2023 17: 10
  
  There will be no tactical nuclear weapons. Forget it. Psheks are already in the Donbass. They are utilized there with conventional weapons.
  1. 1_2
    
    +1
    
    25 July 2023 17: 37
    
    there are few of them now, but what if 300 thousand fit? then one cannot do without tactical nuclear weapons. and don't be ashamed of your power, the Yankees destroyed two Yap cities just to record the number of victims. of course, before the strike, it is necessary to warn the Poles to get out of Warsaw, we do not need the victims of ordinary Poles. we need to reason with the rabid Polish dogs in power
    1. Bakht
      
      0
      
      25 July 2023 17: 56
      
      300 thousand will not fit. But even in this case, there will be no use of tactical nuclear weapons. Comparison with Japanese cities is incorrect.
      Russia will not inflict the first nuclear strike, especially because of Ukraine. This topic (the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine) is regularly raised in the West.
      1. Alexey Lan
        
        -2
        
        25 July 2023 18: 46
        
        In general, a TY blow is not excluded. And how to determine the threat to the existence of Russia. I still see this threat. And of course, you need to hit the west of Ukraine, and not NATO. In the current scenario, Russia, at best, will capture the Left Bank of the Dnieper and the South with Odessa. This is for the best, there may be more modest acquisitions.
        
        Bakht
        
        -3
        
        25 July 2023 20: 50
        
        War is not about acquisitions. The goal of the NWO (or war) has never been called the liquidation of Ukraine as a state. Even the annexation of 4 regions took place after the outbreak of hostilities. September 30, 2022. The seizure of territories is discussed on talk shows, journalists, bloggers, in the media. Another thing is that as the hostilities develop, these proposals may come true. And they may not come true.
        Today there is no threat to the existence of Russia. This does not mean that this situation will continue. But at the moment there are no conditions for the use of nuclear weapons.
        
        The purpose of the SVO is to ensure the security of the Russian Federation in the first place. And secondly, the rights of the Russian population of Ukraine. The demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine are derivatives of the first task. The best solution is to keep Ukraine (already in a truncated form) as a buffer between NATO and Russia and its non-bloc status. This can be achieved by placing Russian military bases on the territory of Ukraine (especially control over railways and ports). Under such conditions, the tasks of the NMD and the security of the Russian Federation can be considered achieved.
        
        Alexey Lan
        
        +2
        
        25 July 2023 21: 40
        
        Apparently, Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine by capitulating it. There simply is no such military force. And, therefore, some kind of Ukraine will remain and it will be hostile to Russia. Those. NWO tasks will not be fully implemented. It's already obvious. In order to completely capture Ukraine, you need to have at least a million soldiers with weapons at the front and below it. But, this is not realistic.
        
        Bakht
        
        -2
        
        25 July 2023 21: 46
        
        Does anyone say that it is necessary
        
        take over Ukraine
        
        ?
        Is this the purpose of the SVO?
        
        guest
        
        +2
        
        26 July 2023 00: 04
        
        Quote: Alexey Lan
        In order to completely capture Ukraine, you need to have at least a million soldiers with weapons at the front and below it. But, this is not realistic.
        
        Actually, it is quite real, but you have to want it.
        
        Vlad55
        
        0
        
        25 July 2023 22: 57
        
        The goal of the SVO was to reintegrate the core of 200 million through the SG with the subsequent expansion of the domestic market, otherwise the Russian Federation would not survive.
        
        Bakht
        
        -1
        
        25 July 2023 23: 20
        
        The first time I've heard. The official goals are quite different. As for "survive", it's not clear at all. You can develop perfectly with 140 million. Of course, you can't become a leader, but you can easily "survive".
        
        guest
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 00: 07
        
        Quote: Bakht
        You can develop perfectly with 140 million people.
        
        With such a meager market, you cannot create a successful market economy.
        
        Bakht
        
        +2
        
        26 July 2023 06: 21
        
        What is the population of France? Or Germany? Maybe 500 million people live in Japan or Finland?
        For example, China or India with more than a billion people "a successful (!) Market economy" is still being created. They are unlikely to succeed.
        States do not exist in isolation. Russia has all the conditions for creating a market economy. Another thing is that I believe that a market economy by itself cannot be successful. And it does not depend on the size of the population.
        
        guest
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 11: 39
        
        Quote: Bakht
        What is the population of France? Or Germany?
        
        But these two countries have a common market, and this was actually the main idea of their EU.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 13: 09
        
        this was actually the main idea of their EU.
        
        This was not the main idea behind the creation of the EU
        
        Yes, there are about 500 million people within the walls of the European Union. And so they now have a "successful market economy" and a systemic crisis. (sarcasm to be clear).
        
        A successful economic mechanism is based on several pillars. And the main thing in it is the availability of resources. And then there are less significant factors.
        
        One of the mistakes of the Western economic model is the requirement to have a large consumer market. For some reason, this does not save from periodically recurring crises. The consumer society cannot serve as the basis for expanding production.
        China will soon face this. If you haven't already encountered. China's economic program for inclusive development provides for the creation of a domestic market of at least 400 million middle-class consumers. That is, they want to reach the capacity of the domestic market, comparable to the EU. The crisis is guaranteed.
        
        The presence of a large number of consumers, the calculation of economic power in terms of GDP, monetary methods of regulation, all this has been built into the basis of economic development. This is the wrong way. Capitalism (market methods) is based on an unshakable principle. It is only possible in an expanding market. But the degradation of Western politicians has reached such an extent that they do not understand this.
        The introduction of sanctions against Russia, and even more so, secondary sanctions, narrow this very market. Those who understand the "other canon" of economics suggested a different path. On the contrary, lift the sanctions and "strangle Russia in its arms." Fortunately, the leaders of the West did not think of this before.
        
        guest
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 13: 37
        
        Quote: Bakht
        This was not the main idea behind the creation of the EU
        
        In the distant 50s, of course, the EU had a different name, but the main idea was to create a large economic space. When a political and ideological component was added to the EU, the degradation of this organization began.
        
        strange guest
        
        0
        
        25 July 2023 23: 33
        
        On such terms
        
        will have to contain.
        
        Bakht
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 06: 25
        
        Not necessarily.
        
        On such terms
        
        Ukraine will have to pay its own debts and work. I'm not proposing to make Ukraine a Russian protectorate.
        I have heard this thesis many times. They say that the maintenance of Ukraine is too expensive. The same was said about the Donbass. There are many more advantages, as it turns out. Both economic and geopolitical.
        The alternative is war, human and material losses. Which is much more expensive.
        
        strange guest
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 06: 40
        
        On such terms
        
        with our military bases and a puppet government, it will be a "country" under sanctions and an unrecognized government. Something like Syria, only at our borders - with the flight of the economically active population and the destroyed economy, only without oil and the League of Arab States. The content of which will fall entirely on our shoulders - because it will be necessary to maintain at least some kind of minimum acceptable standard of living. Otherwise, they will rebel and start all over again.
        
        Bakht
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 06: 58
        
        The government there is already puppet. Only pro-Western. By the way, I did not propose such a government. Sanctions are not so terrible, as the practice of the last 40-50 years shows. The economically active population will return if there is work. Parasites will remain in Europe, which is not bad.
        I have indicated only those items that are necessary to complete the tasks of the CBO.
        There should be a set of measures to improve the state. Some of them I have mentioned before. State building is a long-term and hard work. It is necessary to reformat Ukraine into a federal state with the obligatory presence of the Russian population in state institutions. Only under such conditions is a peaceful neighborhood possible. That is why I do not consider the washing out of the Russian-speaking regions from Ukraine a good decision.
        Your option with some kind of territorial acquisitions is precisely the direct path to the continuation of the war with NATO troops near the borders of Russia.
        
        Have you carefully read what was said at the last NATO summit? As soon as the war in Ukraine stops, Ukraine will be accepted into NATO. Even a temporary truce will do for this. There would be a reason.
        
        strange guest
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 07: 09
        
        That is why
        
        to the Dniester and Tisza
        
        Once we started. Let's solve at least one problem - NOT bringing NATO's borders closer to Moscow. And there is no need to be afraid of the NATO border with Russia (if it passes along the Tisza) - the Finns are already in NATO, so what? If only away from the capital. Let's restore the status quo.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 07: 11
        
        Only in the event of an unexpectedly rapid collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
        
        strange guest
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 07: 30
        
        Yes, anyway. It is one thing to hunchback and overstrain, restoring YOUR OWN, and a completely different thing is a FOREIGN state. Let it be friendly. BYE.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 07: 36
        
        I don't want to repeat myself.
        
        To the Dniester and Tisza
        
        certainly pleasing to the ear. I don't see any prerequisites at the moment.
        
        strange guest
        
        +3
        
        26 July 2023 08: 24
        
        So they will not appear if there is no will.
        
        guest
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 13: 43
        
        Quote: Bakht
        That is why I do not consider the washing out of the Russian-speaking regions from Ukraine a good decision.
        
        I want to remind you that the presence of Russian-speaking regions in no way prevented the complete nazification of Ukraine, including these same regions.
        
        Bakht
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 14: 33
        
        That's right, it didn't hurt. But it did not allow to completely turn Ukraine into a Bandera state. Without them, the remnants of Ukraine will become completely anti-Russia.
        Precisely to prevent this process, Ukraine must necessarily include Russian-speaking regions. But no longer a different legal basis. The federalization of Ukraine is a mandatory condition. When (if) there are Russian-speaking deputies in the Rada with the right to veto over their regions, the situation will be completely different.
        
        guest
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 15: 42
        
        Quote: Bakht
        But it did not allow to completely turn Ukraine into a Bandera state.
        
        How was it not allowed? I propose to take a closer look at this pseudo-state.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 15: 47
        
        I look carefully. Crimea, Donbass, part of the population in Kharkov, Odessa ... The fact that there was a coup d'etat and in 8 years it became a Nazi state, so in 1933 Germany was not Nazi either. 8 years is a long time.
        
        guest
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 15: 55
        
        Crimea and even Donbass had nothing to do with Ukraine for the last 9 years, but Kharkov and Odessa turned into Nazi cities. My relatives stayed there and the rules of the forum will not allow me to quote even a small part of what they say about Russians. In short, for some 9 years, generally adequate people turned into finished Nazis.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 16: 54
        
        Well, this is the confirmation of my words. For 8 years there were no Russian representatives in the Rada. I don't mean Russians by passport, but by mentality. If they are not there for another 8 years, then you will hear nothing like that.
        How to denazify a country if only Nazis remain in the country?
        
        strange guest
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 17: 37
        
        Like how .. history knows examples. The final solution of "issues".
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 17: 54
        
        Bad analogy. Maybe world history knows such examples. Russian history knows no such examples.
        
        What to do with "Russian" people in Ukraine?
        
        strange guest
        
        +1
        
        26 July 2023 17: 58
        
        So what to do? Former Ukraine regions in the Russian Federation. Denazify the Nazis, let the Russian people live. Give preferences - exempt from taxes and payments, social guarantees in full, the right to elect and be elected - unlike Ukrainians. The police and security forces, local authorities, teachers and doctors are only Russians.
        
        Bakht
        
        +1
        
        26 July 2023 19: 05
        
        It will not work. segregation and apartheid. You will get Nazi regions within the Russian Federation. The same Ukraine, only on the contrary. And how can you
        
        Former Ukraine regions in the Russian Federation
        
        ? Will there be laws different from the laws of the Russian Federation? I'm talking about elections. And you will certainly demand a ban on holding positions.
        
        adequate people turned into finished Nazis
        
        strange guest
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 21: 30
        
        What does Nazism have to do with it? Well, in the Russian Empire there was a "Pale of Settlement" for a certain nation. And there was some loss of rights. And nothing, the country lived and developed. Developed the fastest. If not for the weakness of Nicholas and the machinations of the Anglo-Saxons. This is what should be introduced for Ukrainians. Double taxation, a ban on higher education, a ban on living without permission in cities and villages .. and holding public office, but you can learn a lot of things .. Everything new is well forgotten old.
        
        Bakht
        
        +2
        
        26 July 2023 21: 36
        
        This is, if not Nazism, then nationalism. There is a difference, but very minor. For a certain part of the population (on a national basis), a loss of rights is introduced. The Constitution of the country of the Russian Federation does not apply to these people. Is the fifth column in the passport required? Or will you sew a trident on clothes?
        What was in tsarist Russia 150 years ago should not be dragged into the Russian Federation in the 21st century.
        But that's my personal opinion. I have already been pointed out that I am overly categorical.
        
        guest
        
        -1
        
        27 July 2023 00: 20
        
        Quote: Bakht
        For a certain part of the population (on a national basis), a loss of rights is introduced.
        
        The problem here is rather something else, even if such a loss of rights is introduced, it will give little, because even among ethnic Russians there are quite a few ... divorced.
        
        strange guest
        
        +1
        
        27 July 2023 13: 17
        
        But it would be nice to return the fifth column. I now feel a sense of pride from the fact that I am Russian. Not just a Russian citizen, but Russian by nationality. The representative of a great people, who endured a lot of hardships and hardships, and gave the world outstanding figures, and behind which is the history of their ancestors. A difficult story, with dark and bright spots, with ups and downs, but it is the history of my people. And I sincerely do not understand why a Tatar/Jew/Kalmyk cannot experience the same feelings and should be ashamed of his nationality, refusing to indicate it in his passport.
        
        guest
        
        -1
        
        27 July 2023 00: 23
        
        Quote: Bakht
        How to denazify a country if only Nazis remain in the country?
        
        Remember the experience of 1945.
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        29 July 2023 19: 54
        
        don’t have to support Ukraine, let them work and support themselves, you fell into the trap of the Western grief of the “economists” who consider themselves the navel of the earth and think that without their “markets” and under sanctions no one will survive, very much will survive if they work and produce , and even more so, having the Russian market and the Chinese potential for supplying everything necessary, the USSR survived, the DPRK survives even without the PRC, and now the union of the Russian Federation of the Republic of Belarus
        The liberated Ukraine, China and Iran are more stable than the Western system, and they cling to it only in BRICS, but almost the whole world, except for the three outcasts = the EU and the USA with Japan
      2. strange guest
        
        0
        
        25 July 2023 23: 09
        
        So like D.A.M. not in the West..
Alexey Lan

0

25 July 2023 18: 42

However, the main question is how to fully arm 200 thousand troops. According to various reports, we seem to have 100-150 thousand reserves, but how they are trained and armed is another question. Yes, and they are needed now on the LBS, which, apparently, has been seriously knocked out. Those. the named 200 thousand is additional, it is quite problematic without additional mobilization.
1. Bakht
  
  +2
  
  25 July 2023 18: 47
  
  Quite right. They can and will be able to arm, but last year's mobilization showed that training centers cannot cope even with 150. And another question rests on the command staff. It's one thing to replenish existing parts. But the army commanders are talking about the need to rotate units. To create new units is thousands of sergeants, warrant officers and junior commanders. There are plenty of generals, but where to get platoon and company commanders?
vlad127490

+1

25 July 2023 19: 17

What is needed so that the offensive on the Belarusian front does not wait for the fate of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Have brains. Be a patriot of Russia. Do not be a thief, bandit, huckster, mafia.
Have legitimacy. Have the support of the people, not the capitalists - the oligarchs.
What was not and is not now.
There is no purpose. There is no strategy. No desire to win. There is no desire to transfer the NWO to a people's liberation war. There is no Law.
First, the Russian Federation needs to issue a Law, which will say that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975, is an integral part of Russia.
In the presence of the Law, the military operation conducted by Russia in Ukraine is the liberation of the territory of Russia occupied by separatists, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia, the reunification of peoples, the inclusion of the economy, population, territory of Ukraine in the sphere of economic activity of Russia.
1. UAZ 452
  
  +1
  
  26 July 2023 17: 22
  
  It is gratifying to see such faith in the magical power of the law. Indeed, they held a referendum in the Zaporozhye region without the city of Zaporozhye itself, they passed a law that Zaporozhye is now a Russian city, and immediately it became one! And immediately there tricolors were raised everywhere. Ah, they didn’t raise it - Zaporozhye, it turns out, was initially occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but these are already trifles, aren’t they?
blackies

-2

25 July 2023 20: 52

bullshit for civilians.
Vladimir1155

0

25 July 2023 21: 47

with all due respect to the author, he thinks in terms of the beginning of the last century, to achieve it you need not numerical superiority, but superiority in military strength, oh there are missiles, drones, etc., minefields are overcome by special mine clearance systems, if you already attack, then like in bakhmut it eats shells not to be sick, to clear all the supported and populated areas until there is probably left behind resistance and only then enter
Mikhail Dadeko

+2

25 July 2023 22: 35

In order for Belarus to act as a united front with the Russian Federation, it must be attacked, and such frivolities will not be allowed to Poland, they will continue to play "eyes" only if part of the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is pulled over!
Vlad55

+2

25 July 2023 23: 04

That's right, Mr. Marzhetsky, from a military point of view, everything is correct, but too late. If only because while Moscow is creating its own grouping in the north, Kyiv will compensate by creating its own and strengthening its defense lines. Such operations had a chance of success a year ago, but not today.
strange guest

0

25 July 2023 23: 13

What do you need? total mobilization. Against a 10-million army, even if it is armed only with "Kalash" - Ukraine will not last even a month. And by the winter go home with a sense of accomplishment.
1. Bakht
  
  +1
  
  26 July 2023 06: 45
  
  It's already been in history
  
  You will return home before autumn leaf fall.
  
  A crowd of 10 million with "Kalash" is not an army.
  1. strange guest
    
    0
    
    26 July 2023 07: 00
    
    Well, not 10, but 27 (it seems that the mobile reserve estimated Shoigu as much). And yes, history knows - the barbarians even took Rome. Despite the difference in armament and superiority in military science. Big battalions decide. Supply - at the expense of the enemy. Cities - three days to plunder. There is no need to invent anything - everything has long been invented before us.
    1. Bakht
      
      0
      
      26 July 2023 07: 10
      
      The mobilization reserve is usually estimated at 10% of the population. During World War II, the USSR and Germany mobilized approximately 17-18%. It was too much.
      In modern Russia, for the last 20 years, not everyone has gone through the army. So the mobilization reserve, I think, is less than 10 million. But the new law has raised the draft age to 30 years. Probably this will give some increase in the size of the army next spring.
      The task of the Ministry of Defense is to prepare for the reception of conscripts and train them. This will also take 3 to 6 months. So you start to figure out - how long is the war designed for? Yes, and the increase in the production of ammunition has been increased by a multiple. I would not count on a quick end to hostilities.
      1. strange guest
        
        -1
        
        26 July 2023 07: 19
        
        It's strange that you think it's a mob reserve. For example, North Korea. 26 million population - mobile reserve 6,5 million. Suitable for military service - 10 million. Other percentages.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 07: 27
        
        I don't think so. Such figures are given by practice. Mobrereserve is the maximum bar. How many you can call, these are other numbers.
        The USSR called for 32 million over 4 years. With a population of 170 million
        Germany called for 20 million over 6 years. With a population of 70 million
        And this number includes women.
  2. strange guest
    
    0
    
    26 July 2023 07: 40
    
    And about the fact that "this is not an army" - I do not agree. In the Great Patriotic War, the divisions of the People's Militia were only given weapons - in what they came, in that they went to the front. Grandpa went through this himself. But the task was completed. No worse than the army - without any uniforms. The city has not been surrendered.
    1. Bakht
      
      0
      
      26 July 2023 07: 44
      
      I do not know in which division of the people's militia your grandfather served. But for the most part, the divisions of the people's militia were armed quite well. Of course, by the standards of that time. Possible exceptions are October 1941 near Moscow. In a critical situation, battalions were created in the regions. Here their weapons were weak.
      1. strange guest
        
        +1
        
        26 July 2023 08: 26
        
        I wrote - the weapon was. There were no uniforms. Served in the Second (Moscow). Leningrad. Graduated in Courland. In the 85th rifle. Throughout the war - never in the medical battalion, except for pneumonia) He graduated as an artillery reconnaissance commander. Captain. Full iconostasis) And again - to the mobile reserve. Leningrad, with a population of 2,5 million, formed a People's Militia Army for 200 thousand people in two months. This is not counting those called up for mobilization in the army. Accordingly, now St. Petersburg. with the region can easily collect a million, and Moscow with the region - all 2,5.
        
        Bakht
        
        0
        
        26 July 2023 08: 37
        
        Maybe. Unlike the Moscow divisions, the first three DNOs near Leningrad were thrown immediately to the Luga line. As for uniforms, I have no data. The formation began in early July, and already on July 12, the 2nd division was in battle at the Luga line. It was problematic to supply the division with everything necessary in a week.
    2. Bakht
      
      0
      
      26 July 2023 07: 50
      
      By the time they entered the battle in the initial phase of Operation Typhoon, the rifle divisions of the people's militia were well-equipped, by the standards of 1941, with formations. In particular, by September 18, 20, the first of the former militia formations, which became the guards rifle division, the 1941th rifle division had: 10 people, trucks - 668, carbines - 164, SVT self-loading rifles - 6345, machine guns - 1366, light machine guns - 129, PPD submachine guns - 164; guns: 160-mm guns - 76, 28-mm anti-aircraft guns - 37, 14-mm howitzers - 122. It should be noted that on September 8, the 3th rifle division was the worst of a dozen militia divisions.
Kuramori Reika

0

26 July 2023 02: 52

Their current numerical superiority is not the same as it was a year ago. At the moment, half of their soldiers are forcibly drafted civilians. Of course, they were evenly distributed among the regular parts, but the more time passes, the higher their percentage will be in the total mass. And at some point, this whole structure will become unmanageable. You can’t become an officer in a couple of months of training, and a year of combat experience won’t help either. Loss of control is simply inevitable. And then the APU will cease to exist.
1. hellman anton
  
  0
  
  26 July 2023 02: 56
  
  What parallel reality are you from? May I know? Universe number 999?
  For a year and a half they have been rotting and falling apart, but something is not falling apart.
  Planet of the Pink Ponies.
Flight

+1

26 July 2023 06: 07

What is needed so that the offensive on the Belarusian front does not wait for the fate of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

To begin with, great strategists need to understand their Wishlist and capabilities. For, as experience shows, not always having a lot of money will let you spend it on your Wishlist. It turns out here either to roll up a Wishlist, or to develop opportunities. And with this, the strategists are not very ...
Flight

0

26 July 2023 07: 01

Quote: Mikhail Dadeko
In order for Belarus to act as a united front with the Russian Federation, it must be attacked, and such frivolities will not be allowed to Poland, they will continue to play "eyes" only if part of the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is pulled over!

Everything has its time. What happened in 2022 and what's in this? Last year, without a shadow of a doubt, they expected the end of the conflict, at most, in a month, and things are still there.
Muscool

+6

26 July 2023 08: 35

Just how to arm these 400 thousand?
In that year, they collected uniforms and equipment from the world one by one, and now we continue. Where to get heavy weapons and shells (even the existing grouping lacks them), and most importantly, where to get a leadership that is able to organize and successfully carry out such an offensive. The people who organized the last offensive will be in charge and on the second or third day, realizing that they messed up, they requested negotiations. And now the shells are flying not only to the LDNR, but also to Russia, such a cunning plan.
Whether they are capable of something more adequate is a big question.
In passing

0

26 July 2023 20: 05

This is not the attitude, worldview and will that were in 1941-1945. The people (mobile reserve) are also different. War, that is, NWO, is also different, it is not solved by simple armament with Kalash. The question is what to do with Ukraine? And this is a long time, reformatting thinking is three generations. What about debts? Who will pay for all these billions? And that they will require payment, so do not hesitate. And Russia will continue to be strangled with sanctions and duties, and what else. The establishment of Russian control over the territory for the purpose of security for the country alone will not solve the matter. This is not a war for Ukraine. From the beginning of the SVO, they relied on the common sense of the Ukrainians, but it did not turn out at all, because eight years had passed in Nazi propaganda. Blitzkrieg is impossible, the elite considers it too expensive, costly and ideologically harmful. Get ready for the fact that this NWO will go on for a long time, as Ukraine is destroyed. As its economy, economy, and as the mood of the population changes. And even then, if the West does not offer the Russian elite an agreement, perhaps
according to the Iraqi version, or February 1917. For hucksters. There will be no offensive from Belarus. But now they are forced to wage war, because the question of survival. Their survival.