The economist commented on the appearance of the Il-96-400M airliner in Russia

20 2023 June 32

Some Russian experts back in 2021 statedthat Russia, instead of a long-haul wide-body airliner CR929 jointly with the Chinese, needs a new domestic Il-96-400M. Given the sanctions pressure from the West, which will not stop in the foreseeable future, the revival of the legend of the aviation industry in the Russian Federation may become a reality.

It should be noted that the Russian civil aircraft industry really began to revive. The medium-haul narrow-body MS-21 and the import-substituting Sukhoi Superjet 100 appeared. showed the first built flight prototype Il-96-400M. This is a modernized version of the huge and most reliable passenger aircraft in the world - Il-96. On June 20, the Russian economist Konstantin Dvinsky drew his attention to this, who commented on what was happening in his Telegram channel.

The expert noted that today only three aircraft manufacturers in the world can build such aircraft (types of aircraft): Boeing, Airbus and Ilyushin. At the same time, IL-96s are still being produced in the Russian Federation for government agencies, on average, one unit per year (2003 units were built in 2022-19). Then he made two points.

The first is the commercial effectiveness of the IL-96. Our aircraft has four PS-90A engines, while foreign wide-body airliners fly on two engines, which requires less fuel

He remarked.

According to the expert, if the sanctions nuance is removed, then the choice of air carriers will not be in favor of Russian products, and subsidizing the operation by the state is a meaningless undertaking. Without a doubt, the government should help the development of aircraft, their serial production, affordable leasing and other related issues, but the product itself must be competitive and high-tech.

And here the profile structures are developing a project for the transition of the Il-96 from four engines to two. The first stage is the appearance of a new version - Il-96-400M on four engines. The second stage is the remotorization of the aircraft for two high-thrust engines PD-35

- he stressed.

However, mass production of the PD-35 power unit should be expected in 2027-2028. However, this is a normal period, since then "the product has been in demand for half a century, passing only point updates." When the modernized Il-96 acquires a pair of the latest PD-35s, the problem of commercial efficiency will be resolved by itself.

The second question is the capacity of the wide-body aircraft market. Currently, Russian airlines operate 90 wide-body aircraft. However, this volume can be increased by building up a number of directions. For example, Turkey

- he added.

The expert believes that the IL-96 is convenient because it can fly long distances and carry about 400 passengers. Sometimes it is much more profitable to fly on such aircraft than on medium-haul ones. In addition, do not forget about the export potential. The markets of Cuba, Venezuela and Iran will definitely need such aircraft. In the future, you can try to promote your products in the markets of the BRICS countries (the club is expanding), there may well be buyers there, you just need to interest them.

The annual production of 5-7 Il-96-400M units on the PD-35 is a completely reasonable story. The main thing is that the project should not be shelved, and the development of the new Il-96, as well as the PD-35 engine, would continue to be done in an accelerated mode. If we miss the opportunity now, it will be impossible to revive the project in 10-15 years

He summed up.

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twice-born

+11

20 June 2023 22: 56

How long will our aviation industry be clamped down?! From every iron they yell that we need domestic aircraft, they dream of making 1000 in the 30th year (!), But they themselves do not produce anything, even proven and long-established!
This efficiency was tortured back in the 90s, when our aviation industry was destroyed, and now again ?! Another great question is whether two imported engines on their aircraft are more economical than our 4 on our IL!
But what is clear is that 4 engines are much (for all eternity) more reliable than two, even the most super-duper economical ones! Now only planes are falling one after another, and all on economical engines.
1. Vladimir Tuzakov
  
  +2
  
  21 June 2023 23: 56
  
  When oil products in the Russian Federation have nowhere to go (with sanctions on the sale), which means the price is low, so the safety with four engines is much higher, then the problem turns into a positive one, because safety in air travel is above all, which should be emphasized in proposals. The state only needs to "restrain" the profits of sellers from the sale of kerosene to carriers on IL-96. All problems can be solved with the right approach ...
  1. whitebeard
    
    +1
    
    28 June 2023 16: 32
    
    In the Russian Federation, there is no place to put oil products, but oil itself - and this is far from the same thing. We are not very good with oil products - and they are not very cheap, and there are not so many of them in quantity, and the quality often leaves much to be desired, because oil refining is high-tech, for which we largely depend on Western components, technologies and additives. So in the current conditions, oil products in the Russian Federation cannot be cheap
Sergey Latyshev

-2

20 June 2023 23: 29

All in all, tough. Mainly due to timing.

However, mass production of the PD-35 power unit should be expected in 2027-2028.

then “the product has been in demand for half a century,

Annual production of 5-7 units of Il-96-400M on PD-35

Around this time, the CR929, a direct super-mass competitor, will also come up.
And next to it are articles that Western companies are already planning to develop a new generation of airliners, and the old ones will not go anywhere.
1. Kuramori Reika
  
  +2
  
  21 June 2023 02: 29
  
  CR929 will not go into the series, it seems to have been covered up last year. The Chinese didn't seem to like that the Russians were getting too much out of this deal.
  1. savage3000
    
    0
    
    30 June 2023 16: 01
    
    we covered up our participation. Now everything belongs to China. aircraft in development.
vlad127490

+6

20 June 2023 23: 47

What is the article about? Business is capitalism and only profit, there is no question of any development of domestic aviation here. IL-96 has 4 engines. With two it will be a different plane. The comprador power does not allow the development of Russian aviation. There are ready-made IL-96-300s, there are Tu-204/214s, release them into a series, more than 1000 such aircraft are needed. What and who interferes? Name known to all.
ont65

+1

20 June 2023 23: 49

For aviation, the concepts of new / old, judging by the history of the AN-2, are of no fundamental importance, the determining criteria for validity are not new, moreover, the modernization of components and assemblies removes operational issues. There are domestic and foreign markets. Nothing prevents the internal from using what is suitable here, and from the outside to offer what satisfies the various wishes of the partners. Under the sanctions, Ila will not compete in the domestic market with Boeings or Airbuses in the future. Companies don't have to choose.
strange guest

+8

21 June 2023 00: 04

I flew a lot of things, but I remember the IL-86 with pleasure. It was a good airplane for passengers.
Kuramori Reika

0

21 June 2023 02: 27

Why do other countries need it when they can purchase a Chinese counterpart, which will also appear in the near future? Although if the Chinese are too slow with the launch of their own, then we can have time to occupy the market of the Global South. About CR929, I never believed that this project would be completed. Too many similar joint projects all over the world were terminated at the idea stage. And why is it for the Chinese? Then they will not be able to sell them to Europe.
prior

+3

21 June 2023 08: 16

How many years has Russia been unable to revive such a necessary country legend as the AN-2.
What can we say about the IL-96.
The country of constitutionally legalized theft is not capable of such feats.
1. dismas
  
  -2
  
  21 June 2023 09: 41
  
  What's the point of resurrecting an aviation legend from the 1940s? You would also remember "KHAI-1". To replace the Annushka, the Baikal monoplane was put into production.
  1. Nelton
    
    +2
    
    21 June 2023 10: 26
    
    Quote from Dismas
    monoplane "Baikal" was put into production
    
    Well, how to say - not yet launched.
    CBO made some adjustments to the project.
    
    At the moment, the aircraft is equipped (including for certification) with the H80-100 engine manufactured by GE Aviation.
    before the end of this year, the VK-800SM should go to flight tests as part of the Yak-40LL flying laboratory at SibNIA, and the first flight of the Baikal aircraft with the VK-2024SM is scheduled for the third quarter of 800.
    
    Serial production for 30 engines per year is planned to be launched in 2025
    
    for today -
    
    An autonomous combustion chamber installation manufactured by Ural Civil Aviation Plant JSC (UZGA JSC) as part of the development work to create a VK-800SM turboprop engine, from January 15 to March 17, 2023, successfully passed tests at the stand of the Central Institute aviation motor building them. P.I. Baranov.
    
    the UZGA plant itself - the same under construction:
    
    The implementation of the project of the Ural Civil Aviation Plant for the production of new domestic aircraft for Russian airlines is gaining momentum. Having moved its production to a new site of the Titanium Valley special economic zone, located near Yekaterinburg near the Uktus airport, UZGA creates a modern high-tech base there for the manufacture of its own models of Baikal and Ladoga aircraft.
    
    At present, within the structure of the production complex being formed for the Ural aircraft manufacturers, out of four planned facilities, a building of engineering and technical services with an area of 1,4 thousand square meters, a hangar for ground testing and maintenance of aircraft with an area of almost 2 thousand square meters and a universal production building with an area of 6,5, XNUMX thousand squares.
    
    https://expert-so.ru/pressroom/i149522
    1. vlad127490
      
      0
      
      22 June 2023 21: 26
      
      Why compare two completely different aircraft, the Baikal monoplane and the An-2 biplane, a lot has already been written, each has its own niche. An-2 will not be done better than it is. The simplest, cheapest option is to put a modern 2-1000 hp gasoline engine on the An-1100. Carry out remotorization of the existing An-2. In the Russian Federation there are more than 2000 pieces. It is cheaper than a new aircraft at times. There is an An-2 in China. The rights to the An-2 are now owned by the Airbus division. Which of the officials of the Russian Federation sold the rights??? Who is responsible for this is still unknown.
Dmitry Volkov

+2

21 June 2023 12: 14

It is necessary to develop the theme of both the Il-96-400 and Tu-214M, it's time to launch the Tu-334M into series, it seems to have a PD-8 engine for it, Il-114 and An-28 Pchelka instead of An-2 and some insanely expensive idea Baikal single-rotor machine, and more modern engines can be found on it, the Mi-34M is asking for a series, it is already possible
vlad127490

+2

21 June 2023 13: 14

I wrote this 6 years ago.
There are strategic and tactical goals and objectives. Mostly you discuss tactical tasks. The release of IL-96 is the strategic goal of the Russian Federation and it is not correct to discuss how much kerosene he will eat. Let the government of the Russian Federation pay for kerosene. If you are chasing savings for the sake of the collapse of the development of your aviation, then take a horse, it eats hay and does not need kerosene. If we approach the state, then by 2024 we need to produce 200 pieces of four IL-96 engines. There is everything for the release of IL-96. Transfer all aircraft to a state company (federal state enterprise). Let the design bureau develop a new aircraft, with new 2 engines, from scratch.
And nothing has changed.
1. Nelton
  
  +2
  
  21 June 2023 13: 57
  
  Quote: vlad127490
  to produce until 2024 pieces of 200 four engine IL-96
  
  People, what are you talking about?
  the number of air passengers in the Russian Federation is about 100 million per hour per year.
  (this is more than the records of the RSFSR)
  for 100 million people, a fleet of ~ 1000 aircraft was enough.
  https://www.atorus.ru/news/press-centre/new/59791.html
  90 wide-body aircraft
  700 narrow
  the rest is regionals and a trifle
  
  each board should fly for ~25 years.
  
  those. a year you need an update for 40-50 boards,
  4 (four) widebody,
  30 MS-21 / Tu-214 / SSJ
  12 regionals Il-114 / TVRS-44,
  
  This kind of production fully covers the needs of the Russian Federation in air transportation.
  
  The current capacities of UAC and UEC are significantly less, they are being increased.
  It is especially difficult for the JEC.
  Let's just say that literally yesterday in Ufa the third in the world in terms of standard sizes was delivered to Ufa for the production of components PD-8 and PD-14.
  https://vz-nn.ru/ruspolimet/54791/
  
  But a higher priority is to master the production of non-original spare parts and consumables, which is what they do. to maintain the existing fleet, the same needs the same 20-25 years.
  
  And to burn with a slogan from an armored car about 200 IL-96s per year - well, I don’t know who it is designed for.
  1. vlad127490
    
    0
    
    21 June 2023 17: 25
    
    Arithmetic. The author wrote this in January 2017, i.e. for the period 2017-2024 release 200 pcs. IL-96, it turns out 25 pcs. per year, or two to three aircraft per month. Then there was no NWO, there was silence, but smooth surface. As for consumables and components, you wrote this from the position of today. It is easy to calculate the need for boards. Counted by the numbers of the boards of the Moscow Vladivostok line, in total 21.06.2023/11/8. 40 planes fly to Vladivostok, the flight time is 2 hours 3 minutes, not all of them will fly back to Moscow at once, i.e. it is necessary to add 14-3 more sides, in total, XNUMX sides are needed for this line. So count how many airfields are available for more than XNUMX hours. There were no A and B in the USSR, and the price of an air ticket was affordable, everything remained in memory. What prevents you from developing your aviation?
    1. Nelton
      
      0
      
      21 June 2023 18: 19
      
      Quote: vlad127490
      As for consumables and components, you wrote this from the position of today.
      
      Of course.
      
      Quote: vlad127490
      for the period 2017-2024 release 200 pcs.
      
      Still too much.
      100 wide sides are enough to actually cover current needs.
      And they must fly for a long time, 25 years. So you think how much should be a year for uniform capacity utilization.
      
      There were no A and B in the USSR, and the price of an air ticket was affordable
      
      And yet, the peak of traffic - 1990, 91 million people (RSFSR), including many short flights - the most subsidized of all.
      Now, even against the backdrop of SVO - 95 million, and before the covid, there were 128 million.
      
      Well, Wishlist and Wishlist, but the real power both on the sides and on the engines (including the PS-90) is quite limited.
      And they cannot be expanded in one year, because it is necessary to replace the same equipment for production.
      
      Here in Kazan they produced a little Tu-204/214 all these years, but when a lot of them were needed, it turned out that this was impossible with the available capacities, all the same, new workshops were needed, with new equipment.
      In general, there are no special advantages over the MS-21, except that the Tu-214 has all the certificates, and it can fly abroad, and the Europeans most likely will not give the MS-21, we will have to with each country where we fly a lot, negotiate separately.
      
      As for the rest, the processes of testing / certification of engines and aircraft go in parallel with the development of the production base, and when there are certificates, then the industry will be approximately ready for serial production.
      This is not 2023 or even 2024, but nevertheless - you should not underestimate the work that is going on now and has been going on all these years before.
      1. vlad127490
        
        0
        
        21 June 2023 22: 33
        
        We can agree with you on some things, but in strategic planning our figures differ. I had to fly Far East-Moscow many times as a passenger, even when there was a Moscow-Khabarovsk line, they flew on Tu-114, Il-62, and from Khabarovsk to Vladivostok on Il-18 or by train. All foreign countries and close Turkey, and distant Thailand, India, the Caribbean, all of Africa and Latin America are IL-96, 300 or 400, this is from the occupancy and distance. I will not repeat my arithmetic, 200 is the minimum. Tu-204/214 can be attributed to long-haul, it has already flown without landing on the Moscow-Vladivostok line, Manturov banned the serial production of Tu-204/214, only a few. MS-21 is only medium-haul and only for domestic lines, will be in 2030. You know the problems of the industry. In the field of engines, the Russian Federation is far behind and cannot even do reengineering, what to discuss. Thanks to the Soviet backlog and developments.
        
        Nelton
        
        0
        
        22 June 2023 10: 20
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        serial production of Tu-204/214 Manturov banned, only single
        
        The Tu-204 was already in the series, now funds are being invested in expanding production, but the same is not instantaneous.
        They promise access to 10 boards a year - more is not needed.
        (10 per year - this is after 25 years a fleet of 250 aircraft, with a total required number of narrow-body aircraft of 800 aircraft, the remaining 550 are MS-21 and SSJ)
        
        In the field of engines, the Russian Federation lags far behind
        
        Depending on who...
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        Thanks to the Soviet backlog and developments.
        
        Thanks to the Soviets, of course, but the main backlog now is the PD-14 and its further derivatives, + composite technologies.
        
        I will not repeat my arithmetic
        
        And do not, because. your arithmetic is theoretical fabrications against practice.
        
        vlad127490
        
        0
        
        22 June 2023 16: 37
        
        The Tu-204 was already in the series, now funds are being invested in expanding production, but the same is not instantaneous.
        They promise access to 10 boards a year - more is not needed.
        (10 per year - this is after 25 years a fleet of 250 aircraft, with a total required number of narrow-body aircraft of 800 aircraft, the remaining 550 are MS-21 and SSJ)
        
        I've been hearing songs about "tomorrow" from liberals for 32 years. Planes are needed now, not in 25 years. After 2030, others will appear, for example, the long-haul MS-21.
        
        Arithmetic. When you consider and refer to the 2013th century, what prevents you from referring to the 853th century. Here are the data for 145: RF - 4231 aircraft per 316 million people, USA - 5,88 aircraft per 13,42 million people, or coefficient. RF=XNUMX; US = XNUMX, here's the arithmetic for you. Thank you.
        
        Nelton
        
        0
        
        22 June 2023 16: 55
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        Planes are needed now
        
        Now they are, current they need consumables and spare parts.
        As long as they manage.
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        When you count and refer to the XNUMXth century
        
        I refer to years with a max number of passengers.
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        USA=13,42
        
        In the US, people are 4 times richer than ours and can afford to fly more often.
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        I hear songs about "tomorrow" from liberals for 32 years
        
        well, about today - Russian electric trains (there were Riga ones in the USSR), wagons, locomotives, Russian buses, electric buses, trams, truck tractors, elevators and much more.
        
        And then you can turn from a liberalophob into a Russophobe worse than the Westerners.
        They also deny any positive in the Russian Federation.
        
        vlad127490
        
        0
        
        22 June 2023 21: 59
        
        In the US, people are 4 times richer than ours and can afford to fly more often.
        
        One of the main indicators influencing the development of the state is the ability of citizens to move around (on foot, by car, railway, plane, etc.), see Article 27 of the Constitution. In the Russian Federation, in fact, because of the cost, they made a ban on the movement of citizens, brought them closer to feudalism. This is a sign of fear of power.
        
        And then you can turn from a liberalophob into a Russophobe worse than the Westerners.
        They also deny any positive in the Russian Federation.
        
        Thanks for the warning. It doesn't threaten me. Higher education, knowledge, experience allow us to separate the grain from the chaff. In the future, please do not hang labels and respect the interlocutor.
        
        Nelton
        
        0
        
        22 June 2023 17: 39
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        I've been hearing stories about "tomorrow" from liberals for 32 years. Planes are needed now
        
        Well, if about planes:
        
        The total fleet of heavily operated SSJ aircraft now includes 150 aircraft.
        
        “We have Red Wings and Azimuth as the leaders in terms of flight time on Superjets, the figures in different periods reach 350 hours per month, almost 12 hours per day. And at the same time, the serviceability of the engines can be maintained”
        
        UAC, together with partners, was able to establish the production of main spare parts for the Russian-French SaM146 engine, which is installed on SSJ100 aircraft, the UAC CEO said at SPIEF-2023. It is reported by TASS.
        
        “First of all, our colleagues from the UEC are working on this. <...> The serviceability of the engines can be maintained. Despite the abrupt break in relations with the French and the cessation of supplies, through the joint efforts of a number of companies - our partners and colleagues, we managed to establish the production of the most frequently worn spare parts and their installation.
Komarov Alexander

+1

21 June 2023 17: 26

In the comments, the positions of patriots and liberal economists differ significantly. Liberal economists should think about the country's passengers, who are concerned not with tourist flights, but with interregional ones. That is, business trips, moving around the country in search of work or visiting friends and relatives. Russia has a colossal territory, civil aviation is more important here than in European countries. And for some reason economists are trying to put the cart before the horse. If we cannot produce aircraft engines identical to Western ones, we must use the existing ones. There is enough kerosene in the country, we are not dependent on foreign "colleagues", OJSC Rosneft is a state-owned enterprise. Russian planes are great for our country, as well as friendly countries. I really hope for the success of the aviation industry.
1. strange guest
  
  0
  
  21 June 2023 21: 52
  
  The point is that there is enough kerosene in the country and we are not dependent on anyone .. Before the pandemic, a ticket from Helsinki to Barcelona was 39 €, and St. Petersburg - Barcelona 16000 (200 € at that rate is five times more expensive) .. on our cheap kerosene. at the same time, I don’t think that the employees of foreign air carriers and airports earn less than ours, and the airlines themselves operate at a loss ... and our airlines are also subsidized every year from the budget at the expense of our own taxes) the scheme was invented zashib)) And you are talking about development aviation and justice..
  1. Vladimir Tuzakov
    
    0
    
    22 June 2023 00: 17
    
    You don’t lie, dear, that Helsinki-Barcelona is 39 euros. Such prices are junk and one-time, and rare. Here is the average price of Helsinki-Barcelona in the order of 250-300 euros. You need to lie less, then it is more preferable to listen to truthful reasoning. On the subject of fuel, in the oil-producing countries, fuel for cars is generally negligible, and kerosene for air carriers should cost significantly less, which will become a lever for winning global competition.
    1. strange guest
      
      -1
      
      22 June 2023 02: 28
      
      I then flew twice a year through Helsinki with the whole family. Norwegians and Irish. All over Europe. Like half of Peter. Vantaa da Lappa - the favorite airports of Petersburgers) Last time I bought tickets 2 weeks before the start of the NWO. Yes, in advance - for August. 270 € for three round trip. With luggage) And you will tell me) Right now you can go to the Norwegian website and calmly, head-on, without any discounts, buy tickets to Barca for July for 90 €. More precisely - for 89,90))) For 8000 rubles) I just checked) So who is lying to whom Therefore, European low-cost airlines were not allowed into Russia so as not to interfere with loot.
  2. Vladimir1155
    
    0
    
    22 June 2023 22: 14
    
    Quote: Strange guest
    that employees of foreign air carriers and airports earn less than ours, and the airlines themselves operate at a loss ..
    
    and you think!!!! it’s better to think with your head and not with false lies from Economics! for example, if Western firms are credited at 2% per annum, and there is no need to repay loans, then you can fly at a loss, this is the economy of a printing press, they print dollars and euros and receive anything for them from other countries for free, and they also give their firms money development without restrictions, at least take it for nothing, and kerosene and the number of engines have nothing to do with it
Alex Rosenberg

0

21 June 2023 17: 54

Maybe yes if only. Manturov will provide aircraft in an instant. He has a lot of superjet experience.
Vladimir1155

0

22 June 2023 22: 03

Dvinsky's reasoning about the number of dvuteeks is not correct, and 4 engines can be economical, especially since 4 is more reliable, efficiency does not depend so much on the size as on the materials used in the engine and the compression ratio and excess air coefficient (which is ensured by the heat resistance of materials), then of course, you need to switch to new engines, but do not chase the size, for example, if you make 8 engines for IL96 a year, this is a small-scale production, and if you use engines from ms21 and a superjet, then this large-scale production will turn out