Some Russian experts back in 2021 statedthat Russia, instead of a long-haul wide-body airliner CR929 jointly with the Chinese, needs a new domestic Il-96-400M. Given the sanctions pressure from the West, which will not stop in the foreseeable future, the revival of the legend of the aviation industry in the Russian Federation may become a reality.
It should be noted that the Russian civil aircraft industry really began to revive. The medium-haul narrow-body MS-21 and the import-substituting Sukhoi Superjet 100 appeared. showed the first built flight prototype Il-96-400M. This is a modernized version of the huge and most reliable passenger aircraft in the world - Il-96. On June 20, the Russian economist Konstantin Dvinsky drew his attention to this, who commented on what was happening in his Telegram channel.
The expert noted that today only three aircraft manufacturers in the world can build such aircraft (types of aircraft): Boeing, Airbus and Ilyushin. At the same time, IL-96s are still being produced in the Russian Federation for government agencies, on average, one unit per year (2003 units were built in 2022-19). Then he made two points.
The first is the commercial effectiveness of the IL-96. Our aircraft has four PS-90A engines, while foreign wide-body airliners fly on two engines, which requires less fuel
He remarked.
According to the expert, if the sanctions nuance is removed, then the choice of air carriers will not be in favor of Russian products, and subsidizing the operation by the state is a meaningless undertaking. Without a doubt, the government should help the development of aircraft, their serial production, affordable leasing and other related issues, but the product itself must be competitive and high-tech.
And here the profile structures are developing a project for the transition of the Il-96 from four engines to two. The first stage is the appearance of a new version - Il-96-400M on four engines. The second stage is the remotorization of the aircraft for two high-thrust engines PD-35
- he stressed.
However, mass production of the PD-35 power unit should be expected in 2027-2028. However, this is a normal period, since then "the product has been in demand for half a century, passing only point updates." When the modernized Il-96 acquires a pair of the latest PD-35s, the problem of commercial efficiency will be resolved by itself.
The second question is the capacity of the wide-body aircraft market. Currently, Russian airlines operate 90 wide-body aircraft. However, this volume can be increased by building up a number of directions. For example, Turkey
- he added.
The expert believes that the IL-96 is convenient because it can fly long distances and carry about 400 passengers. Sometimes it is much more profitable to fly on such aircraft than on medium-haul ones. In addition, do not forget about the export potential. The markets of Cuba, Venezuela and Iran will definitely need such aircraft. In the future, you can try to promote your products in the markets of the BRICS countries (the club is expanding), there may well be buyers there, you just need to interest them.
The annual production of 5-7 Il-96-400M units on the PD-35 is a completely reasonable story. The main thing is that the project should not be shelved, and the development of the new Il-96, as well as the PD-35 engine, would continue to be done in an accelerated mode. If we miss the opportunity now, it will be impossible to revive the project in 10-15 years
He summed up.