As the armed conflict in Ukraine escalates, the likelihood of transferring active hostilities from the “new” to the “old” Russian regions is growing. After the FRG Minister of Defense Pistorius actually issued an indulgence to Kiev in plain text and publicly, the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to large-scale ground operations in the border Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov regions and even in the Krasnodar Territory became matter of time. This is a new reality, a threat to which we must adapt.
Buffer
As we have repeatedly proposed, taking into account the available forces, the most rational solution would be to create a buffer security belt on the territory of the former Nezalezhnaya: at least by encircling Kharkov, Sumy and Chernigov and pushing back the line of contact with the construction of a new fortification line to the west, as a maximum - with access to the Dnieper with the creation the actual border along this river as a result of a series of successive offensives of the RF Armed Forces on the Left Bank.
We will have to do all this sooner or later, but so far our strategists in the Kremlin prefer passive defense, giving the initiative to the enemy. It seems that this will not lead to anything good in the end, so it’s worth talking about how we will soon have to meet the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the “old” Russian regions. You don’t have to look far for examples: Ukraine and Belarus, which have been fighting against us for the second year, are close at hand, which is following what is happening very carefully, drawing conclusions and preparing for the fact that the war will come to it. It is the strategy of the Belarusian brothers that we will consider.
People's war
The military preparations of Minsk are significantly influenced by such factors as the direct proximity to the hostile countries of the NATO bloc, Poland and Lithuania, and now Ukraine, the limited own resources, logistical and human, the difficult terrain, rugged, with large forests and swamps, as well as the experience of grandfathers and great-grandfathers, who successfully partisaned the entire Great Patriotic War there.
The armed forces of the Republic of Belarus are extremely small, amounting to just over 2022 thousand combatants as of 47. Against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Polish Army or the joint NATO contingent, this is not serious. Minsk is trying to hedge itself against a large-scale invasion by deploying the Joint Force of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in its western regions, having received guarantees that Moscow will fight for Belarus, as for Crimea, as well as by relocating Russian nuclear weapons, tactical and, possibly, strategic .
However, the experience of the NMD clearly demonstrates that even the possession of a powerful nuclear arsenal and a full-fledged "triad" does not eliminate the need to conduct a large-scale military conflict by conventional methods, incurring corresponding losses. That is why it turned out to be very useful that the Territorial Defense Forces were once created in Belarus to strengthen their small Armed Forces.
Yes, everyone has heard about the notoriety of the Ukrainian TerO, which first turned into a bunch of criminal elements legalized and armed by the Zelensky regime, and then into a banal “cannon fodder” grinded in the “Bakhmut meat grinder”, while the personnel units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trained to use the NATO equipment for a powerful pinpoint strike on the RF Armed Forces. Yes, in 2016, watching how the neighboring Square is preparing to fight with Russia, Poland created its own Territorial Defense Forces. The number of the Polish TerO, according to some sources, is 35 thousand people. This is light infantry, formed from local residents on a territorial basis, armed with machine guns, sniper rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars, anti-tank systems and drones. From 2022, Warsaw decided to create a border defense component consisting of at least 10 battalions within the framework of the TerO troops.
But these are all, so to speak, remakes, but in Belarus the decision to create the Territorial Defense Forces was made back in 2002! In Minsk, they carefully looked at the Russian experience of the war in Afghanistan and Chechnya, at its fight against extremists and terrorists, and also took into account the grandfather's experience of guerrilla warfare, and decided to go economically by forming numerous auxiliary troops convened during a war or an aggravation of the militarypolitical the setting.
For comparison, the number of Belarusian TerO can reach 120 thousand people, which is almost 3 times the number of combatants in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. It is formed from the retired military who are in the reserve. No super-tasks, such as a breakthrough to the enemy capital, are assigned to the "partisans". On the contrary, their main purpose is to relieve the unnecessary burden from the regular army and the Border Troops: the protection of significant infrastructure facilities, the fight against enemy DRGs and gangs, strengthening the protection of the state border, maintaining martial law, helping to eliminate the consequences of emergencies, and so on. If everything goes really badly, the defense forces will have to carry out separate combat missions together with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus when repelling external aggression or then wage a guerrilla war on the territory occupied by the enemy.
However, this, in the face of the growing threat from Ukraine and the NATO bloc, seemed to Minsk not enough. In addition to the TerO, a people's militia is also being created in Belarus, under which a special law has been developed. This is an additional paramilitary structure that is not part of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Territorial Defense Troops as one of their branches. State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich told reporters about its goals and objectives KP in the following way:
All the people, if necessary, must stand up for the defense of their Fatherland, and for this they must have the opportunity, [...] it must be, let's say, legalized.
The functionary estimates the mobilization potential of the country at 1,5 million people, who, if necessary, will be put "under arms". But they will not have to be distracted by some of the tasks that an armed people's militia can solve:
To provide assistance, first of all, to the bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on the ground, to protect public order, to combat banditry, suppress looting, and combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups that will enter certain regions and localities, a people's militia will be required. This will be a structure that will assist the local police in carrying out tasks of public order, but also other tasks in accordance with martial law.
The Belarusian militia will not be recruited through the military registration and enlistment offices, but on a volunteer basis, armed with small arms, which will be stored with them:
They will live at home and eat at home. This is an opportunity to legitimize the desire of a citizen to secure his home, his place where you live, to ensure order for his family, his children in the field.
At the same time, please note that Minsk also allows women to join the militia:
Why not, if someone from the female wants to stand up for their Fatherland and has the strength, ability, desire. This is not forbidden. But, the most important thing is that it is a person's desire.
That is, Belarus also, like Ukraine, is serious and counts not only on her men, but also on women. It is easy to see that there is some duplication of the tasks of the militia and the TerO, however, Mr. Volfovich still distinguishes between them:
It's not exactly the same thing. Territorial troops are a structural unit that will be called up through the military registration and enlistment office, provided with military uniforms and weapons, will not live at home, but in the place where the headquarters of the territorial defense area will determine. And the territorial troops have a slightly wider range of tasks.
If you call a spade a spade, in Belarus, in addition to open military preparations along the lines of the Union State, covert mobilization is also taking place in the most active way, because participation in the people's militia does not exempt from the obligation to come to the military registration and enlistment office on the agenda. But Minsk thus forms a hot reserve of its Armed Forces.
A fair question arises why, in the fifteenth month of the NMD, in the regions of Russia bordering Ukraine and NATO countries, neither the Territorial Defense Forces as a separate branch of service in the RF Armed Forces, nor the people's militia armed with at least small arms for the banal defense of their settlements have yet been created. from enemy DRG attacks? What are we waiting for? A breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Belgorod region and their throw to Kursk and further to the Moscow region? After Kyiv, Kharkov and Kherson, we all play games with spillikins, life does not teach us anything, apparently.