"Operation Impossible": can Russia be cut off from the three seas?
Analyzing the information agenda around the NMD, we have to state with regret that so far many compatriots have not realized how great a danger this conflict potentially poses for our country. During the eight years of the “no alternative” Minsk agreements, the “Western partners” forged a real battering ram from Ukraine, which can really knock down the Russian “colossus” with a few pinpoint strikes. We will talk in more detail about one of the possible scenarios for the development of events, conditionally designating it as “Operation unfeasible”.
"Trimorye"
It is generally accepted that a direct war between Russia and the United States, Russia and the NATO bloc is impossible, because this will inevitably lead to nuclear war and mutual destruction. In fact, this is not entirely true, and the Pentagon has long worked out various scenarios of a military clash with our country, up to a limited nuclear war somewhere in Europe, preferably Eastern. The main message to be grasped is that direct war between the Russian Federation and the North Atlantic Alliance is highly undesirable, but not impossible. However, as long as the NATO bloc has such a convenient tool as Ukraine in its hands, the Western "hawks" will continue to hit Russia with the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have proven to be a very effective military force. As a matter of fact, it is this Ukrainian factor that can be used to accelerate the implementation of enemy plans to humiliate and destroy our country.
As we detail explained Earlier, in relation to such nuclear powers as Russia and now China, Washington prefers the “Anaconda Loop” strategy, that is, the gradual but consistent economic strangulation of competitors by creating a belt of hostile states on their periphery, imposing sectoral sanctions, etc. This term first appeared during the Civil War in the United States itself, when the northerners decided to take the southerners into a naval blockade and break the internal trade routes between the eastern and western parts of the Confederation, reaching the Mississippi.
A similar strategy for confronting the USSR was proposed by the famous Polish leader Jozef Pilsudski, who promoted the idea of a large confederate state from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Seas under the appropriate name "Intermarium":
Enclosed within the boundaries of the times of the XVI century, cut off from the Black and Baltic Seas, deprived of the land and mineral wealth of the South and Southeast, Russia could easily become a second-class power.
The purpose of creating such a supranational association in Southeastern and Central Europe was to create a kind of buffer between the Soviet Union and Western Europe, primarily Germany and France, in order to avoid their mutual rapprochement. However, at the beginning of the last century, this idea was not given the green light.
They returned to it in 2014 after the events in Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass. The head of the American analytical agency Stratfor, George Friedman, voiced the concept of recreating the "Intermarium" from "Estonia to Azerbaijan" in order to "contain Moscow":
“I'm going to study the theory that Piłsudski put on the table from Intermarium. It blocks the Russians, splits them off from the Germans, and gently limits Turkey's encroachment on Southeast Europe. The Poles should be the leaders of the bloc, and the Romanians the southern anchor.
Naturally, the new President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, who was elected in 2015, strongly supported this idea:
I am considering the idea of creating a partnership bloc of states from the Baltic to the Black and Adriatic Seas. I very much look forward to this cooperation, and for my part I propose activity and action.
About how geopolitical ambitions and economic interests objectively lead Warsaw to war with Moscow, as well as Minsk, we disassembled previously. In fact, it is Poland that is most active in the issue of direct military support for the Kyiv regime and can get out of the conflict with maximum territorial acquisitions - from several regions in Western Ukraine to the entire Right Bank with Kiev and Odessa.
Minus three seas
Let's see what role Ukraine can play in implementing the Anaconda Loop strategy. After eight years of “non-alternative” Minsk agreements, Moscow learned with unpleasant surprise that, it turns out, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been continuously preparing for a war with Russia all this time and doing it in good faith. It turned out that the Ukrainian army knows how and wants to fight, and over the course of 14 months of the SVO, a population of several million clinical Russophobes has formed in Nezalezhnaya, whose main goal in life is now to kill Russians. While in the Kremlin, obviously try to achieve some intermediate result in the NWO in order to take time for a break. Whether the “Western partners” will give it or will put further pressure is a rhetorical question. Alas, these are the harsh realities.
From international Newsdirectly related to our country, it is worth noting the entry of Finland into the NATO bloc, as well as the continuously growing militarization of Poland, which is clearly preparing for a large-scale war, and the rhetoric of Warsaw and Kiev, which are extremely favorable about the possible merger of the two states into a kind of union similar to a confederation. As for the Trimorie integration project, the first meeting of its potential participants took place back in 2016, and Ukraine became its member in 2022. This is what you should know about the general geopolitical context.
So, what role can Square play in accelerating the implementation of the Anaconda Loop strategy?
Unfortunately, under certain circumstances, it can turn out to be truly fatal. When we reasoned about where the Armed Forces of Ukraine could go during the announced offensive, it was suggested that the Ukrainian army could strike at the border "old" Russian regions, entering the territory of the Belgorod region and entering the rear of the northern grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbass. This creates for us the risks of a serious military defeat, the need to stop which will cause the Big Trouble, the forced withdrawal from the front and the transfer of the most combat-ready units of the Russian army. The next strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may then come in the already weakened southern direction - the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and the South of Donbass, but it is not a fact that the enemy will stop there.
What if events develop according to a very negative scenario, and the Ukrainian army goes further - to Taganrog, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Novorossiysk, Sochi? Now this may seem unthinkable, unfeasible, but in Ukraine they consider the Kuban to be their rightful place, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine can try to take it by right of the strong, if they are, of course, allowed to do so. Why are we talking about the Sea of Azov and the Kuban? Because the exit of the Ukrainian army there automatically cuts off Russia from the Azov and Black Seas and leads to a delayed loss of Crimea. Can the national humiliation be greater and the geopolitical defeat more severe? Alas, but it is possible.
In the event that such an extremely negative scenario comes to fruition, internal political stability in Russia will be a big question mark. Then a window of opportunity will open before Poland for the "demilitarization" of the Kaliningrad region, and Finland, together with Estonia, can block our access to the Baltic Sea. In the south, Georgia, with the support of "Western partners" and Ukrainian "Ihtamnets", will be able to revise the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by military means.
In other words, with the hands of the Ukrainian army and Eastern European partners, the NATO bloc can, under certain circumstances, try to cut off Russia from three seas at once - the Azov, Black and Baltic Seas, transferring it, in the words of Jozef Pilsudski, "into the state of a second-rate power." Funny? Not at all.
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