How the grain deal and the security of Transnistria are connected

On March 18, 2023, the grain deal for the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports expires, which has already been extended once. This time, the Kiev regime insists that this quadripartite agreement be valid not for 120 days, but for a whole year, and the port of Nikolaev should be included in it. Should Russia again follow the lead of "Western partners"?

Like cheated with grain

As is often the case, the most nasty things are done with the most plausible intentions. When the international community pressured President Putin to unblock the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny, Western and Ukrainian propaganda stamped their feet to prevent starvation in troubled countries such as Lebanon, Libya, Djibouti, Eritrea, Mauritania, Somalia, and Pakistan. Allegedly, without Ukrainian grain, their inhabitants would completely swell from hunger. In return for a naval deblockade, it was assumed that Russia would receive transparent access for its own grains and fertilizers to the world market within the next three years.

What came out of all this is well known. The main beneficiaries of the Black Sea initiative were Ukraine and the richest countries of the collective West and East instead of the poorest, for the sake of which everything was allegedly started. Express reviewer Michael Koch commented on this as follows:

The European Union fought to create a corridor for the supply of Ukrainian grain by sea, so that the poorest countries would not face famine. But the wheat hardly made it there, instead it was mostly sent to Spain, where it was used as feed for pigs.

It is ugly to deceive Putin like that, but these are far from all the consequences of the implementation of the grain deal.

At first, the Kiev regime received from the unblocking of its ports in the Black Sea region from 5 to 7 billion dollars in foreign exchange earnings. These funds went, among other things, to the war against our country.

Secondly, according to some reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine got the opportunity to be supplied with fuel and fuels and lubricants through Odessa, as well as ammunition, presumablybeing reloaded somewhere halfway from the Romanian and Bulgarian ships. Also, the Odessa port was involved in the delivery of explosives, which were used in the Ukrainian terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge last year.

Thirdly, civilian vessels participating in the Black Sea Initiative were used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to organize a combined air and sea drone attack on Crimea on October 29, 2022.

What did Russia really get for the nobility of its president? Absolutely nothing good.

Russian grains and fertilizers have both faced complex opposition from the Western bureaucracy and its financial sector and are still in a state of international semi-isolation. At the same time, the 2023 harvest has already broken all historical records. That is, with the exchange of free access to Russian products for the deblockade of Ukrainian ports, it turned out to be a banal "scam", as they say in certain circles.

How cheated with ammonia

Moreover, it is very likely that the Western partners deceived President Putin not only with food and fertilizers, but also with ammonia. It is very revealing that in November 2023, Vladimir Vladimirovich spoke on camera with businessman Dmitry Mazepin, the founder of Uralchem, about the possibility of resuming the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline:

There parameters, figures are known, volumes are clear. The benefit for all participants in this process is also clear. We will also work with the UN, with colleagues from the organization. Let's see what happens. You know my position, I don't mind, please.

To this, Mazepin lamented that for some reason the work of the pipeline was not resumed:

There is a question in terms of providing fertilizers to Africa and emerging markets. This is ammonia... The Russian side is ready, the pipe on the Russian side is in good order. We have data that it can also earn money on the Ukrainian side. But time has passed, there is no movement.

Recall that ammonia, which is a raw material for the production of fertilizers, was pumped through this main pipeline from Tolyatti to the port of Odessa until February 24, 2022. For some reason, Kiev believes that one of the beneficiaries of this business is the well-known St. Petersburg businessman Arkady Rotenberg, and therefore imposed sanctions on the Togliattiazot and Minudobreniya enterprises.

Be that as it may, the grain deal has already been extended once, Russian troops were forced to withdraw from Kherson, blocking the direct road to Nikolaev and Odessa, and the ammonia pipeline from Tolyatti did not work. Ugly! Now the intrigue is whether the deal will be extended again and for how long. In this case, additional factors should be taken into account.

At first, on the border with Transnistria, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated a powerful strike force that can literally destroy this pro-Russian enclave in just a few days. Recently, there was an attempt to assassinate the head of the PMR in a generally dangerous way, the responsibility for which lies with the SBU. One gets the impression that this threat to Transnistria is a means of putting pressure on the Kremlin, primarily on the Black Sea initiative.

Secondly, construction of an alternative ammonia pipeline has begun in Russia, which should connect Togliatti with Taman. Construction is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2023. Worried about Odessa.

If we analyze the situation as a whole, it becomes obvious that the issues of extending the grain deal and the security of Pridnestrovie are directly linked. The threat to Tiraspol is certainly a means of pressure on the Kremlin in order to force it to extend the agreement on the most favorable terms for Kyiv. At the same time, the threat of blockade of the grain corridor is, in fact, the only way to put pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners from Moscow. So the grain deal-3 be. Oh, you shouldn't have left Kherson!
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  1. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 11 March 2023 15: 00
    All transactions must be public. Otherwise, they will be deceived again, and unlocked from obligations. Let the conditions look cynical, but their announcement will make it possible to exit the deal as soon as they are violated, and not wait for the end of the period by which the enemy will again come up with a new initiative for blackmail.
    1. EMMM Offline EMMM
      EMMM 11 March 2023 19: 50
      I agree 100% about transparency.
      Now for the fact. Last year, Russian grain exports grew by 20% - after all, sanctions were directed at shipping and insurance companies.
      And, finally, I would like to know how much our bulk fleet grew last year under the influence of sanctions.
  2. Cucumbers Offline Cucumbers
    Cucumbers (Cucumbers) 11 March 2023 15: 04
    Initially, they were not going to supply grain to the poorest countries. At the time of confinement, fodder grain remained there. This was well known, the information was freely available. As for deceived, when did our enemies keep their word? Kindergarten of some sort. Someday this war will be given a name and it will be called "Treaty War". Therefore, no contracts and deals. Transnistria. They have enough weapons and shells to turn half of Ukraine into a lunar landscape
  3. mark1 Offline mark1
    mark1 11 March 2023 15: 43
    Oh, it's not hard to deceive me! ...
    I'm happy to deceive myself!

    It's time, it's time for me to be smarter!
  4. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 11 March 2023 15: 44
    Any negotiations with Ukraine should be banned. A categorical ban. Zelensky said that negotiations with Putin are impossible. That Zelensky does not trust Putin. Specifically, in this case, the answer should be mirrored. There is no trust in Zelensky and any negotiations with him are impossible.
  5. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 11 March 2023 17: 24
    All the same, this "cunning multi-move" will be circled around the finger. Even if it's for good. Indeed, the quieter the region around Transnistria, the better. There is absolutely nothing to fight Pridnestrovie with. There may be suitable shells, but there are no trunks. During Yeltsin's time, tanks were slaughtered here and everything was taken out - well, the partners asked.
  6. KOPA Offline KOPA
    KOPA (Kolja) 11 March 2023 17: 25
    Quote: Cucumbers
    . They have enough weapons and shells to turn half of Ukraine into a lunar landscape

    ..... if only to blow up warehouses in Kolbasnaya, but also to us !!!
    1. EMMM Offline EMMM
      EMMM 11 March 2023 19: 44
      And what about Moldovans?
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 11 March 2023 21: 39
    IMHO, what a deliberate, transcendent naivety.
    Outside Capitalism. The one who pays is the one who carries the grain.
    The UN paid - several ships went to blacks. The rest was bought by Europe, Turkey, Arabs. They just paid the owners-capitalists. Our media tried to rub in that it was Zelensky who almost manually transported the ships to Europe, but ... nonsense.

    According to the rules of the grain deal, from the Internet, it concerns the safe passage of ships with grain and minesweepers nearby.
    There is nothing about UAVs, nor about the obligation to buy back the grain of Russian oligarchs or ammonia ...
    Load, take out. Couldn't upload - my fault. Socialism ended 30 years ago...
    Grain, Russian oligarchs, and so sold to the West. The hysteria somehow subsided. Well, to declare - shooting is shooting, but let's pump ammonia through the APU .... this is just cynicism. To whom death, to whom profit.

    Recent news about record trade in 22 with ... EU / NATO confirms this ...
    And the thesis "Putin is being deceived by everyone, no matter who gets there" ... it looks strange if we recall his own statements: we will not raise PV, we will not change K, V will not be, we will not start M, ....
    Rather exactly the opposite. HPP, look how it works ... everywhere the population is declining ....
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 11 March 2023 23: 16
      nor about the obligation to buy back the grain of Russian oligarchs or ammonia there is nothing there

      On July 22, a Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the UN Secretariat was signed in Istanbul on promoting the promotion of Russian food products and fertilizers to world markets. The document was signed by Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov and the UN Secretary General. According to the memorandum, the world organization was supposed to join the work to remove restrictions that impede the export of Russian products and fertilizers. The duration of the agreements was three years.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 12 March 2023 01: 17
        Security corridors instead of "assistance" of the UN.
        Did the UN help? Yes.
        But it did not promise to buy Grain and fertilizers, did not promise to remove sanctions, did not promise to bring the ships..
        And read the claims:

        In September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the EU's refusal to send Russian fertilizers to the poorest countries in Africa and Latin America the height of cynicism.

        if taken literally, then noodles are for dupes.
        Capitalism in the yard.
        Neither the EU nor Turkey will buy grain and chemicals with their own money, hire ships, pay for loading, and then deliver them for free to the "poorest countries" for three dozen lands.
        If the Russian oligarchs want to lead the "poorest countries" for free or sell them, they sign contracts, hire ships, if they don't have their own, load, transport, unload, sell, etc.

        UN? judging by the finish of the hysteria, it helped. Turkey missed the ships, some of it seemed to be bought by itself.
        But no one promised to do the work for the Russian grain generals, according to the text.
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 12 March 2023 15: 04
          According to the text there "nothing" is not true. This is called breaking agreements. Therefore, the continuation of the "grain deal" is in question.
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 12 March 2023 18: 57
            Lavrov and the Foreign Ministry are by no means known for their diplomatic victories.

            Ukraine is clear: there are three inviolable corridors for grain from 3 ports.
            Russia: "The UN will help" ... what is this? Not a word about volumes, ports, corridors, vessels involved, about cargo that is already stored somewhere ....
            But since the news has already announced a large (or record) import of grain, the UN, yes, has helped.
            And about the supply of fertilizers - too, although it seems to be less.
            1. Bakht Offline Bakht
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 12 March 2023 21: 00
              Russia did not have to specify specific ports or routes. The problem was sanctions and a ban on banking operations. Russia could not receive transactions for its grain and fertilizers. If the UN did not have any authority to solve this problem, then it was not worth putting its signature.

              Today - what is the reason for Russia to extend this deal? The UN is nobody and there is no way to call them. Ukraine insists on tightening sanctions. Turkey is an interested party.

              So the extension of the deal is in question due to the fault of the West. It would be a pity if Russia continues this practice. I mean any agreements with the West. Western countries have made it a rule not to fulfill their obligations. And they themselves cut off the path to any negotiations.

              Conclusion: the grain deal was disrupted through the fault of the West, and there is no point in extending it. No one to sign contracts with.
  8. hellman anton Offline hellman anton
    hellman anton (hellman anton) 12 March 2023 02: 54
    It is urgent to conclude a grain deal again, so that there is a reason to say again that the partners have deceived!
    The grain deal is not just a diplomatic shame, but also a military one in fact. Think about it, seaports work quietly and take out anything in combat conditions. Lol, the Americans would have sent geraniums and calibers there, and not into transformer boxes.
    The most important logistics point works without interruption, what a beauty. I think that the generals in the NATO General Staff are sitting by their heads, so they don’t destroy the enemy’s logistics
  9. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 12 March 2023 10: 35
    In its current state, Russia has nothing to oppose to a new grain deal. If she doesn't sign, they'll do without her. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy is frankly weak and will not be able to block the movement of ships. Especially if they go under the escort of the Turkish Navy. They will not shoot anti-ship missiles at civilian dry cargo ships. The authority of the Russian Federation will go from the baseboard to the baseboard. So it needs to be extended. But smart! A parity basis for the deal has already been proposed here: a cargo from Odessa passed - a cargo with grain (fertilizer) from Novorossiysk passed; if a cargo with grain from Russia did not pass - a cargo from Ukraine did not pass. It is bad, of course, that the permeability of goods from Russia will depend on Ukraine, but so far so. Visibility is maintained.
    And yes, of course, in a secret addendum to the new treaty, a condition should be stipulated: an attack on Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria is the end of the deal, up to the destruction of the ports of Ukraine. How else?
  10. archer 13 Offline archer 13
    archer 13 (Alexander Strelnikov) 12 March 2023 11: 14
    How long will our president pretend to be a naive boy in rose-colored glasses? None of the West will fulfill its obligations, isn't it time to put a bolt on all agreements.
  11. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 12 March 2023 11: 32
    Treaties only work with countries that represent something. Russia expressing "concern" is not listed here. The whole world sees the betrayal of the Russian elites.
  12. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 12 March 2023 11: 52
    Quote: Teacher
    will not be able to block the movement of ships.

    It can throw mines, and even notify about it.

    And ship insurance will cost such a pretty penny that there will be no benefit left.
  13. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 12 March 2023 11: 59
    The grain deal is a fragment of a big world game on the eve of a global war. Is it really incomprehensible that all the events around Ukraine are a purposeful preparation for a thermonuclear war with Russia. Russia has two options - to surrender and then die a war dog for US interests in a war with China, or try to win by defeating the US and its closest allies in a thermonuclear war with China. And the further the leadership of the Russian Federation hesitates, the harder it will be for the people of Russia later.
    1. scolopendra Offline scolopendra
      scolopendra (Kirill Sazonov) 16 March 2023 02: 07
      Run in 2024, we understand the program.
  14. Mikhail Kononov Offline Mikhail Kononov
    Mikhail Kononov (Mikhail Kononov) 12 March 2023 13: 09
    The deal will be extended. Just because we don't have any tools to stop her. We can get out, but the ships will keep going loaded back and forth. Nothing depends on us. We already tried that year. , after the attack on Sevastopol , pout your lips . nothing came of it. Puff one. The Turks are already putting pressure on us with customs with goods and a gas hub. The Turkish Defense Ministry has already announced that the deal will be extended. So the maximum that remains for us to do a good face in a bad game.
    1. trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 12 March 2023 13: 39
      Just because we don't have any tools to stop it.

      ?? In the Black Sea, Russia seems to have the Black Sea Fleet. In my opinion, this is the best argument.

      The Turks are already putting pressure on us and customs with goods and gas hub .

      This gas hub is a Turkish torture device adit?
  15. Vladimir R. Offline Vladimir R.
    Vladimir R. (Vladimir Russian) 12 March 2023 13: 57
    How could you not count the option of deception. It is impossible to make unforgivable mistakes while heading such a state.
  16. trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 12 March 2023 13: 57
    At the same time, the 2023 harvest has already broken all historical records.

    I find it difficult to understand the meaning of this sentence. The harvest in Russia is harvested only in the fall, and now it is only the middle of March 2023.

    on the border with Transnistria, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated a powerful strike force that can literally destroy this pro-Russian enclave in just a few days.

    And what? An attack on Transnistria = an attack on the sovereign "very independent" Moldova, because this "pro-Russian enclave" was not recognized even by Russia itself. The Moldovans did not make any "invitations-offers" to the Ukrainians to help them with the separatists, and the Ukrainians on their territory can do whatever comes into their heads.

    construction of an alternative ammonia pipeline has begun in Russia, which should connect Togliatti with Taman. Construction is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2023. Worried about Odessa.

    Yes, yes, passing by the bus stop, my cap was blown off by the wind.
    And then, Russia has already built the "alternative northern gas pipeline", but the music played for a very short time.
  17. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 12 March 2023 14: 50
    What a pity that such a great country, such an army, was plundered piece by piece by grabbers and unprincipled thieves! It is even more pitiful that there is no people's power in Russia. Now an outright traitor (Gorby), now a drunk, now a disguised traitor. Patriotic speeches, written either in Washington, or in Tel Aviv, learned to push and do nothing in twenty years of practice.
  18. Huan Maxbet Offline Huan Maxbet
    Huan Maxbet (Huan Maxbet) 16 March 2023 05: 17
    This is a strategic mistake of the leaders of Russia, how much more you can step on the same rake, it’s time to grow up already, but the lessons do not go to the future until an ax is attached to the rake handles, in other words, those people who make such decisions should be held accountable!

    As is known from the available data, Russia donated 500 thousand tons of grain to the so-called poor countries, and who checked that they got there, or again the West fooled like a child and sold these grains and put the money into circulation, or into armament supplied to Ukraine through land -liza.

    Thus, this agreement also gives Ukraine the opportunity to earn and buy additional weapons that need to be immediately brought from America or the West, and the authorities themselves, the ammonia pipeline is also not for the future, like other streams "Northern 1 and 2" and "Power of Siberia" initially they were not profitable, Novak spoke about this back in 2017, I attach the link:

    Of these pipes, only Druzhba paid off and began to generate income, but this is an achievement of another country that we inherited, and the pipes of new Russia are hundreds of billions of dollars buried in the ground, for those who did not follow the link, I will quote from Novak's words cited by Rambler:

    Back in 2017, Energy Minister Alexander Novak, speaking at the State Duma, said: - This is not a commercial project. That is, it will never pay off at all. It's clear? I have Gazprom's calculations, which show that this project will not pay off until 2048. It’s just that in all the graphs it says “does not pay off” in terms of net present value. That is, it is not a payback project.
    He has two goals. The first goal is, of course, to puff our cheeks and say that we have opened another export route for gas towards Asia. This is the first. And the second is to give money to those who build it, that is, contractors. Well, I don't see any other assignments for him.

    Another representative of the legislature joked that as soon as Chubais arrived in America, the banking sector began to collapse and the collapse of the whole of America would soon come, therefore, the economy in Russia has not developed for more than 30 years - such jokes from government officials - Moskovskaya Yumorina is resting!
    So our trouble is not that there is no responsibility, from the very beginning it was necessary to strictly punish for theft, forgery, corruption, tax evasion, there would be respect for the law, and when you can buy "law", then the law turns out to be rubber, and can be stretched across the thickness of the wallet, as an example of Vasilyeva, who stole 6 billion and received 5 years in a colony.
    But each time the court decision on the circumstances of the case, the amount became smaller, as a result, it compensated for the damage of 216 million rubles, as a result, out of the 5 years received, she spent 2,5 years in house arrest, the rest of the term went to serve out in a colony, but a month later she was released on parole for good behavior and respect for the staff of the colony!
    But there are rumors that even this month it was not she who sat out, but a double, well, only God knows!
  19. sap Offline sap
    sap (Alex) 16 March 2023 17: 19
    It's not nice to deceive Putin like that,

    Ah, it’s not difficult to deceive him, he himself is glad to be deceived! (C)