On March 18, 2023, the grain deal for the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports expires, which has already been extended once. This time, the Kiev regime insists that this quadripartite agreement be valid not for 120 days, but for a whole year, and the port of Nikolaev should be included in it. Should Russia again follow the lead of "Western partners"?
Like cheated with grain
As is often the case, the most nasty things are done with the most plausible intentions. When the international community pressured President Putin to unblock the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny, Western and Ukrainian propaganda stamped their feet to prevent starvation in troubled countries such as Lebanon, Libya, Djibouti, Eritrea, Mauritania, Somalia, and Pakistan. Allegedly, without Ukrainian grain, their inhabitants would completely swell from hunger. In return for a naval deblockade, it was assumed that Russia would receive transparent access for its own grains and fertilizers to the world market within the next three years.
What came out of all this is well known. The main beneficiaries of the Black Sea initiative were Ukraine and the richest countries of the collective West and East instead of the poorest, for the sake of which everything was allegedly started. Express reviewer Michael Koch commented on this as follows:
The European Union fought to create a corridor for the supply of Ukrainian grain by sea, so that the poorest countries would not face famine. But the wheat hardly made it there, instead it was mostly sent to Spain, where it was used as feed for pigs.
It is ugly to deceive Putin like that, but these are far from all the consequences of the implementation of the grain deal.
At first, the Kiev regime received from the unblocking of its ports in the Black Sea region from 5 to 7 billion dollars in foreign exchange earnings. These funds went, among other things, to the war against our country.
Secondly, according to some reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine got the opportunity to be supplied with fuel and fuels and lubricants through Odessa, as well as ammunition, presumablybeing reloaded somewhere halfway from the Romanian and Bulgarian ships. Also, the Odessa port was involved in the delivery of explosives, which were used in the Ukrainian terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge last year.
Thirdly, civilian vessels participating in the Black Sea Initiative were used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to organize a combined air and sea drone attack on Crimea on October 29, 2022.
What did Russia really get for the nobility of its president? Absolutely nothing good.
Russian grains and fertilizers have both faced complex opposition from the Western bureaucracy and its financial sector and are still in a state of international semi-isolation. At the same time, the 2023 harvest has already broken all historical records. That is, with the exchange of free access to Russian products for the deblockade of Ukrainian ports, it turned out to be a banal "scam", as they say in certain circles.
How cheated with ammonia
Moreover, it is very likely that the Western partners deceived President Putin not only with food and fertilizers, but also with ammonia. It is very revealing that in November 2023, Vladimir Vladimirovich spoke on camera with businessman Dmitry Mazepin, the founder of Uralchem, about the possibility of resuming the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline:
There parameters, figures are known, volumes are clear. The benefit for all participants in this process is also clear. We will also work with the UN, with colleagues from the organization. Let's see what happens. You know my position, I don't mind, please.
To this, Mazepin lamented that for some reason the work of the pipeline was not resumed:
There is a question in terms of providing fertilizers to Africa and emerging markets. This is ammonia... The Russian side is ready, the pipe on the Russian side is in good order. We have data that it can also earn money on the Ukrainian side. But time has passed, there is no movement.
Recall that ammonia, which is a raw material for the production of fertilizers, was pumped through this main pipeline from Tolyatti to the port of Odessa until February 24, 2022. For some reason, Kiev believes that one of the beneficiaries of this business is the well-known St. Petersburg businessman Arkady Rotenberg, and therefore imposed sanctions on the Togliattiazot and Minudobreniya enterprises.
Be that as it may, the grain deal has already been extended once, Russian troops were forced to withdraw from Kherson, blocking the direct road to Nikolaev and Odessa, and the ammonia pipeline from Tolyatti did not work. Ugly! Now the intrigue is whether the deal will be extended again and for how long. In this case, additional factors should be taken into account.
At first, on the border with Transnistria, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated a powerful strike force that can literally destroy this pro-Russian enclave in just a few days. Recently, there was an attempt to assassinate the head of the PMR in a generally dangerous way, the responsibility for which lies with the SBU. One gets the impression that this threat to Transnistria is a means of putting pressure on the Kremlin, primarily on the Black Sea initiative.
Secondly, construction of an alternative ammonia pipeline has begun in Russia, which should connect Togliatti with Taman. Construction is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2023. Worried about Odessa.
If we analyze the situation as a whole, it becomes obvious that the issues of extending the grain deal and the security of Pridnestrovie are directly linked. The threat to Tiraspol is certainly a means of pressure on the Kremlin in order to force it to extend the agreement on the most favorable terms for Kyiv. At the same time, the threat of blockade of the grain corridor is, in fact, the only way to put pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners from Moscow. So the grain deal-3 be. Oh, you shouldn't have left Kherson!