Why the “grain deal” will continue to work and harm Russia even after leaving it


The so-called grain deal, in which Moscow hastily suspended participation immediately after the attack of the Ukrainian Navy on the main naval base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol, is a clear example of an extremely stupid Russian foreign policy. Sitting down to play at the same table with professional cheaters, "thieves and pirates", we received only losses for our country with zero profit.


As is often the case, a big dirty trick is conceived under the most plausible pretext. They became the need to provide Ukrainian grain "swollen with hunger" residents of the poorest countries in the world - Lebanon, Libya, Djibouti, Eritrea, Mauritania, Somalia and Pakistan. Russia allegedly blocked the export of food from the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny with its navy, but in fact the internal blockade of the ports was carried out by the Ukrainian Navy, having mined the exits from them in order to prevent the possible implementation of our landing operation. What did the "grain deal" give to all its participants?

At the end of July, a quadripartite agreement was signed in Istanbul between Russia, Turkey, the UN and Ukraine on the creation of a safe transport corridor for the export of food. Note that there were no direct agreements between Kyiv and Moscow on this matter. In accordance with the terms of the “Black Sea Initiative”, no complete demining of the Ukrainian ports was carried out, and instead the ships left them along a pre-agreed corridor. The loading of grain on board was carried out under the supervision of representatives of Turkey and the UN. At the joint coordination center in Istanbul, representatives of Russia were allowed to check the ships so that no military cargo was delivered back to Odessa.

So, what exactly did all the parties to the “grain deal” get?

Turkey and the richest countries of the European Union received the lion's share of Ukrainian grain, fodder, since all the food was taken out by them in advance before the start of the special operation. This grain did not go to Africa or the Middle East, but to feed Turkish and European agricultural animals. The benefit of Ukraine itself from the "Black Sea initiative" is immeasurably higher.

At first, foreign exchange earnings began to flow into the country, which went into the pockets of local oligarchs or went to war against Russia.

Secondly, the load on the railway and road infrastructure of Western Ukraine was significantly reduced, through which the Armed Forces of Ukraine could receive more Western weapons, ammunition and fuel in order to kill Russian soldiers and terrorize the peaceful cities of Donbass, the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and Belgorod.

Thirdly, freed up space in elevators and warehouses from last year's harvest for a new one.

Also, according to information from the Runet, which requires verification by the competent authorities, additional deliveries of weapons for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by sea could be carried out through the “grain deal”. Allegedly, after the ships unloaded in Turkish ports, after being checked by Russian specialists, returned to Ukraine, somewhere halfway they could be loaded with weapons and ammunition from Bulgarian and Romanian ships. In order not to attract much attention with a large draft, they were allegedly loaded with ammunition no more than 10-20% of the maximum deadweight. That is, one ship with a displacement of 20 tons could thus deliver at least 2 tons of NATO-style shells to Odessa without hindrance. After the commander-in-chief of the Northern Military District Surovikin began to systematically destroy the energy infrastructure of Ukraine, the secret sea route gained increased importance.

What did Russia get from the “grain deal”?

Nothing, zero without a wand. No promises to lift unspoken sanctions on the export of Russian grains and fertilizers have been fulfilled. Moreover, our country has also gone into a big minus. The port of Odessa was used to export explosives that were used during the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. And on October 29, civilian ships participating in the “Black Sea Initiative” were involved in the attack of the Ukrainian Navy on the base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol. In addition, we will now also voluntarily supply the inhabitants of Africa and the Middle East “swollen with hunger” with 500 tons of Russian grain instead of Ukrainian. Naturally, for free.

Big questions arise for the Kremlin, how well they assess all possible risks when making such important geopolitical decisions. And what, in fact, does he intend to do now that Russia has suspended its participation in the "grain deal"?

The fact is that all the other three parties to the "Black Sea initiative" are not going to abandon it and have already agreed among themselves on the mode of passage of courts without taking into account Moscow's opinion on this matter. And now Russia is being reproached from Kyiv, and from Washington, and from Ankara, and from the UN for hindering such a wonderful international humanitarian initiative. That is, the Kremlin itself legalized the presence of all these structures on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast, and now they feel great there and, undoubtedly, they will throw more sanctions on us for any active actions. But what might those actions be? Why did Kyiv decide to cut the branch on which it sits, arranging an attack on Sevastopol?

A counter question: how exactly can Moscow interfere with them now? Bring the surviving ships of the Black Sea Fleet to Odessa and take it into a real blockade? And get on board several volleys of anti-ship missiles "Harpoon" and "Neptune"? Something you don't want.

All that really remains for Russia is a land offensive operation against Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa. But what kind of attack on Odessa can be discussed here and now, when the retention of at least Kherson is in question? Unlike the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not at all shy about their means and made it impossible to use the Antonovsky bridge and the passage through the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. The supply of the Russian group on the Right Bank faced big problems, which will be aggravated on the winter Dnieper. This, in fact, is the answer to the question why the Kyiv regime went for broke by boldly attacking our Sevastopol.

Russia's ability to close the "grain corridor" unilaterally is still very limited, and a direct consequence of the events of October 29 may be an increase in the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine through Odessa, Chernomorsk and the Southern Sea Route. This can be stopped only by holding the bridgehead on the Right Bank of the Dnieper and its further expansion in the course of a large-scale offensive. The task is not trivial, but there are no special alternatives.
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  1. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 31 October 2022 12: 43
    +11
    The weakness of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is amazing! The incompetence of the decisions taken as well. Directly the enemies are sitting in the Moscow Region, the General Staff, and in the Kremlin as a whole.
    They will carry weapons now by ships! They don't care about Putin! How many more people will be killed!
    The only option is to turn off the ports, at least the power supply. Can you even deal with it? Unhappy.
    1. ja.net.1975 Offline ja.net.1975
      ja.net.1975 31 October 2022 13: 38
      +7
      and how many facts of "incompetence" do you need in making decisions that play into the hands of the enemy in order to finally see the light ..........
  2. DO Offline DO
    DO (Dmitriy) 31 October 2022 12: 50
    +6
    how exactly can Moscow prevent them now? Bring the surviving ships of the Black Sea Fleet to Odessa and take it into a real blockade? And get on board several volleys of anti-ship missiles "Harpoon" and "Neptune"? Something you don't want.
    All that really remains for Russia is a land offensive operation against Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa. But what kind of attack on Odessa can be discussed here and now, when the retention of at least Kherson is in question? Unlike the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not at all shy about their means and made it impossible to use the Antonovsky bridge and the passage through the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. The supply of the Russian group on the Right Bank faced big problems

    The answer to the question "how exactly can Moscow interfere with them now" follows from the very same quote above - symmetrically to the shelling of the Antonovsky bridge and the passage through the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, as well as the recent attack by the Armed Forces of Russian ships. That is, to inflict missile-"geranium" strikes on the infrastructure of the Odessa port. For the sake of humanity, after giving a warning to dry cargo carriers with a specific deadline, they should leave the port.
  3. wladimirjankov Offline wladimirjankov
    wladimirjankov (Vladimir Yankov) 31 October 2022 13: 50
    +11
    why did Shoigu sign this crazy agreement at all. Initially, it was clear even to not very knowledgeable people that Bandera and the West would use this sea corridor for the supply of weapons. For this unforgivable stupidity of our command and political leadership now we are getting. On the other hand, our leaders gloriously promoted themselves as humanitarians and fighters against hunger in Africa and throughout the world. We drive ourselves into a corner with these ill-conceived decisions and exacerbate the situation. I wonder what Putin will do now? blockade? Mines to put? Landing troops in Odessa? But what forces? Where are they? And the blockade is a good reason for NATO to drive its ships into the Black Sea and bring everyone closer to the Third World War.
    1. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 31 October 2022 14: 09
      -3
      It is necessary to shy away with a nuclear bomb and that's it.
      1. andrey_234 Offline andrey_234
        andrey_234 (Andrew) 31 October 2022 19: 52
        +3
        yes, and as soon as possible, so that it all ends, it is impossible to live already.
    2. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 1 November 2022 06: 06
      +1
      Quote wladimirjankov:
      For this unforgivable stupidity of our command and political leadership now we are getting.

      Since 2000, Putin has had such "nonsense" - all his work. Perhaps its real meaning is precisely in these "nonsense"
    3. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 1 November 2022 06: 36
      -1
      As far as I remember, all Putin's work is accompanied by this bewilderment of people by his decisions. The first doubts appeared after the expansion of NATO in 2004 (just a large group of countries, including the entire Baltic), which was serenely calmly perceived by Putin - "It's okay - everything is under control." Everything around was falling apart and being sold, people were waiting for investments in the development of production, but instead they received Putin's regular messages about the continued growth of huge amounts of foreign exchange reserves abroad, etc., etc.
  4. The comment was deleted.
    1. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
      Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 31 October 2022 19: 49
      +7
      All this is SVO, this is a business project of Putin and Biden. The interests of Russia, this is the second.

      Everything that is happening right now points to this. Well, or on the debilizm of the guiding and guiding force. There are no other options.
  5. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 31 October 2022 17: 03
    +6
    In my opinion, NATO members work in the RF Armed Forces.
    But more than that, NATO members are also working in the economic bloc. Because export earnings from our exports are still received by the "collective West" through their agents - the so-called. "Russian" (but in fact English, Cypriot, American, Turkish, etc.) oligarchs - envious and stupid entrepreneurs who are no more than six in the Americans.
  6. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 31 October 2022 17: 09
    +2
    Quote: steel maker
    All this is SVO, this is a business project of Putin and Biden. The interests of Russia, this is the second.

    The interests of Russia are generally at the very end there, next to the interests of some Turkey or Armenia.
  7. Pavel N Offline Pavel N
    Pavel N (Paul) 31 October 2022 17: 17
    -9
    Otpad ... Comments are filled with provocateurs!
  8. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 31 October 2022 17: 55
    0
    To replace Ukraine with Russian grain is to confess guilt.
  9. Foe Pshekov Offline Foe Pshekov
    Foe Pshekov (Arkady) 31 October 2022 18: 03
    +6
    Well, at least now, being outside the "grain deal" we can destroy the infrastructure of the Odessa port. What actually needs to be done in the coming days. And as a maximum, we can sink ALL ships that pass through all these corridors with missile strikes, like ships carrying weapons and ammunition.
  10. svit55 Offline svit55
    svit55 (Sergey Valentinovich) 31 October 2022 20: 27
    +6
    Now I was looking at a map of the movement of ships ... from Odessa a caravan with a course of 205gr. to Turkey. Like this. The free distribution of grain is not at all understandable given the rise in prices for bread and flour within the country. This whole "deal" (in general, the jargon of scammers) is only to the detriment of the Russian Federation, or it was necessary to exchange ship for ship, or at the level of an agreement with the UN to remove sanctions from our ports. The cries of "we were deceived again" no longer pass, who benefits from this in the Kremlin?
  11. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 31 October 2022 21: 15
    0
    Firstly, our people warned that they would not guarantee the safety of the corridor.
    Secondly, for shipko arrogant and stupid today in the port of Odessa, two port tugboats crashed, which worked with bulk carriers involved in the transportation of grain.
    That is, if they rock the boat, then a return to the deal is theoretically possible, but there will be no tugboats. And not only for the transportation of grain. After all, tugboats don’t care what to drag around the port. So there will be nothing to carry.
  12. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 1 November 2022 09: 50
    +2
    Making the deal was another attempt to earn our power points from our enemies. He is still most worried about breaking up with them. For them, as the tsar said in Valdai, they remain respected partners, although for the country and the people these "respectable partners" are enemies, and this is officially stated in their documents. That is why the authorities went to absolute stupidity, knowing that they would be deceived, but for the sake of this they went. These people are called to forget about the past, it will not return, And they themselves live only in the hope of returning at least a piece of the past with accounts from partners and dachas, etc.
  13. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 1 November 2022 09: 54
    -2
    If the deal was, then it is beneficial to someone. Ukraine and NATO have already been written.
    But also to our capitalists. Otherwise, they wouldn't bother. There is definitely a benefit
    It just isn't spoken out loud. (Let's say our oligarchs have a share in Ukrainian grain, nitrogen, ammonia, titanium, aluminum. Then the money will come to them through offshore companies...)
  14. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 1 November 2022 16: 18
    0
    How can Russia respond? Yes, it’s elementary. From submarines, mine all approaches to Odessa. Let them walk unaccompanied by our minesweepers. tongue
  15. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 1 November 2022 16: 43
    +2
    Everything grows from Yeltsin, the entire fifth column was grown by Yeltsin and his chicks. You look at the faces of this fifth column and ask yourself who they are. The most terrible enemy sits inside Russia. The "grain deal", this is a deal of the fifth column, as well as "gestures of good will", "agreements", "regroupings".
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 1 November 2022 17: 55
      +2
      Someone from above rearranges the pieces on the chessboard.