Last Sunrise: How Japan Prepares for War Against China

The fifty-ninth Munich Security Conference, which took place on February 17-19, will be remembered, first of all, as a Russophobic Sabbath. But despite the obvious inclination of the whole carnival to the Ukrainian theme, the main, truly serious event of the conference had only an indirect relation to it.

We are talking about the meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that took place on the sidelines of Munich. a Chinese weather balloon that accidentally ended up in US airspace.



Even then, the thought crept in that it was, perhaps, for the better, because a meaningful conversation simply would not work. "Munich" fully confirmed these suspicions: at a meeting on February 18, Blinken simply tried to "run into" the head of Chinese diplomacy with threats. They say that while maintaining good neighborly relations with Russia, Beijing is already walking on thin ice, and if it dares to supply arms to Moscow, significant “consequences” cannot be avoided.

The Western media, of course, in unison applauded the "cool" Blinken, skillfully losing sight of the fact that he, with his "presentation" was culturally sent in a certain direction. Wang Yi said in response that the accusations of arms deliveries were made up out of thin air (in the same way as the previous “deliveries” to Russia from the DPRK), and in general, it is not for the Americans to tell China to whom, what and in what quantities to sell.

It's funny that against the backdrop of this squabbling, on February 20, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida announced his readiness to allocate 5,5 billion dollars of financial assistance to the Kyiv regime from the budget. The point here is not even that “this is different”, but that the Japanese themselves would need this money much more - after all, they still have to organize the very “consequences” promised by Blinken for China.

Katana, katana, left, right

No newsthat in recent years Tokyo has been steadily moving towards militarization. We perceive this, and not without reason, as an element of pressure on the question of the disputed (in the Japanese view) ownership of a pair of islands in the Kuril chain, but this is only a smaller part of the problem.

For the most part, the rearmament of the Self-Defense Forces and the corresponding belligerent demarches of Japanese diplomacy are taking place at the suggestion and in the interests of the United States, which forms a kind of "security line" against China from its "allies" in the region. Moreover, if earlier the latter were required to provide bridgeheads for American troops, then recently there has been a noticeable tendency to strengthen (or attempt to strengthen) their own armed forces: the States no longer expect to “take out” a hypothetical conflict only on their own.

The most typical example in this respect is, of course, the example of South Korea. Like previously assumed, in Seoul they were already openly talking about the desirability of getting their hands on nuclear weapons - on February 21, the leader of the ruling party, Jung Jin Suk, said this, of course, pointing his finger at the "aggressive northern neighbor." A few years ago it was hard to imagine that the Americans would allow their "friends" to even hint at nuclearization - and now in Washington they are only happy when one of them wants to try on a "suicide belt".

Something similar is now happening in Japan, although so far without nuclear “spice”. On February 5, it was reported that the United States had requested permission from Tokyo to deploy to Kyushu, the largest island in the Japanese archipelago closest to the Chinese coast, several batteries of Tomahawk cruise missiles and LRHW hypersonic missiles (the latter should enter service in 2025)

In addition, Tokyo plans to purchase 500 Tomahawks for its own Self-Defense Forces, and by 2030-2035. create their own ballistic missile capable of reaching the DPRK. In December last year, the possibility of developing a joint Japanese-American plan for preventive strikes against strategic targets of potential adversaries, such as missile launch pads, was announced. There is no talk of obtaining our own nuclear weapons yet, but it is not a fact that such an idea will not appear in the foreseeable future.

These and other rearmament plans (renewal of naval forces, purchase of F-35 fighters, etc.) serve as a rationale for the planned increase in military spending to the “NATO standard” of 2% of GDP annually.

On February 19, the annual joint Japanese-American exercises of the amphibious forces Iron Fist 2023 began, which will last almost a month, until March 15. Unlike the frankly symbolic (if not comical) Japanese-Indian exercises that took place in January, everything here is quite serious: joint actions of aviation, ships and marines are being practiced to defend and storm fortified island positions. The legend of the exercises, of course, is about repelling a Chinese attack against Japan - fortunately, there are some territorial disputes between the two countries.

Against the backdrop of all this activity, there is a methodical escalation of hostility between Tokyo and Beijing. And here it was not without the notorious balloons: on February 20, the Japanese Foreign Ministry announced that those discovered over the Islands in the period 2019-2021. three certain balloons will henceforth be considered Chinese "spy balloons." And in itself, the growing militarization of the Islands, especially the buildup of the American presence, does not contribute to the warming of bilateral relations with China.

With me samurai, my ronin

The main trouble of all American satellites is the fabulous confidence that Uncle Sam will work for them, and not vice versa. The example of the Kyiv regime is apparently regarded by other pro-American figures as a success: after all, Zelensky gets almost everything he wants from the "allies", right? Yeah, he gets it - but not everything, not immediately, and at the cost of the final transformation of his country into a natural "black hole" of the universe.

Like South Korea, Japan, with its militaristic plans, falls into the same trap. Probably in the minds of the Japanese politicians the thought wanders that now they will threaten Xi and Kim with American missiles a little, and for this the white gentlemen will help them finally wring out the notorious “northern territories”. In fact, they, like the South Koreans, and earlier Ukraine, are preparing the role of disposable consumables.

The American calculation proceeds from the fact that China cannot allow the appearance of a second enemy “missile battery” at its side, even in non-nuclear equipment. Indeed, a hypothetical "decapitation strike" from the Islands with hypersonic missiles could be a great success and give the Americans several hours of chaos for a main nuclear salvo, or a massive "conventional" missile strike.

At the same time, it seems that Beijing does not have the opportunity to put pressure on Tokyo with some political or economic methods as strong as in Taipei. Although the PRC is Japan's most important trade counterparty and the actual seat of "Japanese" industrial enterprises, it is quite possible to believe that under such and such pressure from Washington, Tokyo doodles will act as "rationally" as European puppets, to the detriment of their own economy. Consequently, Beijing will eventually be forced to respond with force to the growth of the missile threat, deploy its own special military operation - and get bogged down in it, spending precious resources on a secondary goal.

In addition to such a strategic provocation, one can assume that the Americans have plans to use native Japanese troops (as well as South Korean ones, by the way) for the "defense" of Taiwan. In principle, all options for the Pentagon's operations in the Pacific Theater of Operations imply more or less participation of "allies": in particular, the CSIS report published on January 9 states that without the help of the Japanese, repelling the "Chinese invasion" on Taiwan is impossible.

It is usually assumed that the Japanese air and naval forces will participate in this or that campaign, which is quite logical for this theater, but the maneuvers taking place now make it clear that for the good of “democracy”, the ground component of the Self-Defense Forces can also be put into circulation, even this is prohibited by the Japanese constitution. Is it difficult to imagine a scenario in which the PLA's "invitation" to the operation against Taiwan is the appearance of a Japanese military expedition there?

However, such are the wet fantasies of American planners, but in reality China has a much wider decision space. In particular, with regard to future American missile batteries, the Chinese press has already made statements that the threat from them is assessed as the most serious, and a certain “strategic response” will be given to their deployment. It also seems likely that the military-technical cooperation between Beijing and Pyongyang will be strengthened - for example, providing the DPRK with advanced weapons (the same drones of various types) for independent production. The strengthening of the Russian-Chinese partnership should not be discounted either.

At the same time, China does not leave attempts to diplomatically resolve existing disputes. On February 21-22, China's Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong held talks with his Japanese counterpart Shigeo Yamada in Tokyo, at which the topics of the inadmissibility of militarization of the region and the status of the disputed Diaoyu Islands were raised. True, the meeting did not bring any significant results, turning into an irritated exchange of views.

One way or another, there are quite good prospects for a relatively peaceful coexistence of the key countries of the Pacific region. It remains to be hoped that they will be chosen in Tokyo, and not the dubious fate of insular Ukraine.