Discount on Russian oil exceeded 40%
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation reported that the size of the discount on Russian oil continues to increase and has already exceeded 40%. The average price of Urals oil in January was $49,48 per barrel, while the budget was made on the basis of the Urals oil price forecast in 2023 in the amount of $70 per barrel.
In 2022, the Ministry of Finance planned a budget deficit for 2023 of almost 3 trillion rubles, or about 2% of GDP. However, at such a price of Russian oil, the budget deficit could grow to 6 trillion rubles. According to economists, until discounts on domestic oil stabilize, it is practically useless to make forecasts about the size of the deficit.
The discount on the sale of the Russian grade Urals to the average world prices of Brent at the beginning of the year was about $35, or 41%. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the situation with oil production and its export from Russia is stable, despite the sanctions of the European Union and the G7 countries. According to him, discounts on Russian oil do remain high and in line with the price ceiling set by the West.
Russia responded by banning its companies from selling oil if there is a ceiling condition in the contracts. According to Alexander Novak, for violating this order, companies will be banned from exporting oil. Experts also believe that it will be extremely difficult for domestic companies to control the implementation of the instructions.
It was previously reported that from February 5, 2023 enter due to European sanctions and the price ceiling for Russian oil. It turned out to be problematic to sharply increase the export of oil and oil products to Southeast Asia by sea due to the British orientation of the international shipping insurance system and the shortage of specialized vessels of its own merchant fleet.
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