For a real turn to the East, Russia will have to build BAM-2 and Trans-Siberian-2

The coup d'état that took place in Ukraine in 2014 naturally led to the loss of part of the territory by Kyiv, the beginning of the ATO in Donbass, two iterations of the Minsk agreements, the beginning of the NVO and, as a final result, for which Maidan was touched, the rupture of all trade and business ties between Russia, on the one hand, and Ukraine and the European Union, on the other. Today, in addition to a real turn to the East, there are special alternatives for our commodity economics and not left.

"Battle" for the railroad

According to media reports, Russian oilmen and coal miners have entered into a "battle" for access to the railway infrastructure. Oil refineries Omsk, owned by Gazprom Neft, Kirishsky, owned by Surgutneftegaz, Orsky, owned by Forteinvest, TANECO from Tatneft, as well as the refineries " Bashneft, owned by Rosneft. Representatives of Russian refineries complain that the number of railcars loaded with their products and not dispatched is critical for them and is steadily increasing. The seriousness of the problem was also stated by the head of the Russian Fuel Union Evgeny Arkusha:

The problem is, and for a long time. Already 3-4 months. The decision on priority and priority went to the government level.

What happened and why did Russian Railways fall into a stupor?

The problem lies in the fact that its transit capacities simply cannot cope with the loads that have increased dramatically in recent years. At first, coal, which was the first to fall under Western sanctions, received priority in reorienting exports to the markets of Southeast Asia. Due to the European embargo, Moscow was forced to redirect fossil raw materials primarily to China, for which it turned out to be much more profitable to buy our coal at a discount than to burn Australian coal or even more so LNG. Russia's entire eastbound rail system has been chock-full of coal since last year, and only limited capacity stands in the way of boosting coal exports. And now the oilmen have also entered the “battle” for railway capacities.

From February 5, 2023, European sanctions and a price ceiling for Russian oil come into force. It turned out to be problematic to sharply increase the export of oil and oil products to Southeast Asia by sea due to the British orientation of the international shipping insurance system and the shortage of specialized vessels of its own merchant fleet. Out of nowhere, new Russian tankers will not be taken; alas, we have not yet learned how to build them on our own and quickly. Who would have thought in advance that a "great continental power" might need its own fleet, commercial and military, to protect it, right?

So now we have to collect old tankers from the world, one by one, that can somehow float on the water. Moreover, it should be taken into account that oil tankers and tankers for the transportation of petroleum products are vessels of different classes. The latter were built much less than conventional oil tankers. Even according to the optimistic forecasts of some domestic experts, it may take at least six months to form a special fleet of product tankers.

At the moment, the domestic railway system cannot cope with the increased volume of traffic, and Russian Railways is keeping under special control and ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of petroleum products in an easterly direction. The situation in the federal government is also closely monitored, where they face a serious dilemma. On the one hand, oil and oil products are traded more expensively and bring more profit to the country's budget. On the other hand, if priority is given to oilmen and the volume of coal production is reduced, then the city-forming enterprises of many Russian single-industry towns may suffer, which will drastically complicate the socio-economic and domestic political situation. Affairs!

Apparently, the problem will be solved within the next six months at the expense of coal miners, trying to find some acceptable balance, until an appropriate fleet of product tankers is formed. But this will not be her final decision. After the “window to Europe” is closed, most of the former trade flow will simply have to be reoriented eastward and done quickly, but how?

In the expert community, in all seriousness, they are now talking about the need to build BAM-2 and Trans-Siberian-2. This involuntarily causes a sad smile when one recalls a quote from the ideologist of the liberal market reforms of the 90s, Yegor Gaidar, about the BAM:

The trouble is that no one has thought about the elementary question: “Why are we building this road? What are we going to carry along it and in which direction? The project cost about four times as much as it was supposed to, and was never fully completed.

В ARTICLES dated April 7, 2021, where it was cited, we told in detail why exactly the “damned scoops” built all these “unnecessary”, from the point of view of liberal reformers, railways. Among the tasks facing BAM were: creating a duplicate of the Trans-Siberian Railway in case of war with China, developing a dozen new territorial-industrial complexes in Eastern Siberia and the Far East along its length, as well as connecting the country with a single railway network with Sakhalin Island. And now also for the reorientation of cargo flows from Europe to Southeast Asia.

As you can see, the “unnecessary piece of iron” came in handy for the descendants, so much so that they also planned to build its double.
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  1. Scharnhorst Offline Scharnhorst
    Scharnhorst (Scharnhorst) 2 February 2023 18: 53
    I'll start from afar. I remember my father needed 50 kopecks to fill a full tank of a motorcycle with a sidecar Dnepr K-650. Gasoline A-76 cost 2 kopecks per liter! ... Now we need not to build two highways and a hundred tankers and dry cargo ships, but to pursue a "real policy". To pursue a policy to reduce / limit the production and export of hydrocarbons in general. At the same time, expand nuclear energy with a focus on reducing the cost of a megawatt, and process hydrocarbons to the maximum extent possible within the country with access to foreign markets for competitive products with maximum added value. Then the consumers themselves will sail / come for it.
  2. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 2 February 2023 18: 59
    The carrying capacity of the Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian Railways in 2022 reached 158 million tons. This indicator was also confirmed at the meeting of the government commission on transport held on December 28, 2022. Thus, Russian Railways fulfilled the key parameter set out in the Comprehensive Plan for the Modernization and Expansion of the Mainline Infrastructure.

    Early commissioning of a number of facilities of the second stage of the development of the Eastern landfill, coupled with the already existing infrastructure of the first stage, made it possible to transport 148,8 million tons through the Eastern landfill last year. This is almost five million tons more than the carrying capacity of the landfill in force last year.

    In addition to the capacities that are growing due to construction, Russian Railways is actively using technological solutions, for example, trains with increased length and weight. Thus, last year more than 16 thousand heavy trains (7100 tons) were carried out in the eastern direction. Work has already begun with trains weighing 14200 tons.

    A comprehensive approach to using the capabilities of the Eastern Range allows us to predict that by the end of this year we will transport more than 160 million tons. And we will be able to increase the carrying capacity to 173 million tons.

    Recall: within the framework of the first stage of the development of the Eastern test site with 2013 By 2022, more than 1200 facilities have been built, including social infrastructure, and 5 km of track have been reconstructed. The implementation of the second stage began in parallel with the first - in 2018. In particular, by the end of 2024, it is planned to lay 1 km of additional main tracks, as well as reconstruct 345 sidings and 32 stations.
  3. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 2 February 2023 19: 02
    Out of nowhere, new Russian tankers will not be taken; alas, we have not yet learned how to build them on our own and quickly. Who would have thought in advance that a “great continental power” might need its own fleet, merchant and military, to protect it, right?

    After 2014, they thought about it, and began to build SSK Zvezda.
    At the end of 2022 -

    Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex handed over to the customer an Aframax-type tanker Okeanskiy Prospekt. This is the third vessel built at the shipyard from a series of large-tonnage tankers with a deadweight of 114 tons, which are in the portfolio of orders of SSK Zvezda, as well as the first Aframax ordered by PAO Sovcomflot.

    Yes, localization is not yet 146%, but work is underway.
  4. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 2 February 2023 19: 24
    special alternatives to our raw material economy is gone

    At the end of 2021, "mineral products" (including diesel fuel in the amount of 50 million tons) were already 56% in Russian exports. Taking into account the export of services - 50%.
    Slowly but surely, the share of products in exports grew.
    One of the brightest breakthroughs was the winning tender for the supply of commuter trains to Argentina.

    In 2022, exports of products and services were the first to suffer.
    (official statistics have NOT been published since February)
    Yes, this is a problem and a challenge.
    But the work is being done.
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 2 February 2023 21: 27
      This is ridiculous. against the backdrop of a forced decline in our commodity exports
      common juggling

      Sergey, we are talking about 2021, the last pre-war year, and the last for which statistics are published.
      There was no "forced decline" in 2021.

      I understand that the stereotype "gas station country" is firmly ingrained in the subcortex.
      On this stereotype, the entire strategy of the United States / Ukraine against the Russian Federation is based on the fact that it is worth imposing sanctions - and damn it.
      But the country keeps and develops.
      1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
        Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 2 February 2023 23: 11
        It was covid!!!
  5. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 2 February 2023 20: 33
    Reading about all these cataclysms, the question involuntarily arises. Here is Comrade Stalin - during this time he managed to carry out total industrialization, win the greatest war and even get an atomic bomb .. And this one?
    1. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
      Vladimir80 2 February 2023 22: 25
      With all due respect to Comrade Stalin, industrialization was carried out by the Soviet people under his wise leadership. And now who will work - all around managers, lawyers and freelancers!!!
      1. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
        Paul3390 (Paul) 2 February 2023 22: 34
        And who spawned them?
      2. scolopendra Offline scolopendra
        scolopendra (Kirill Sazonov) 4 February 2023 01: 00
        The people are not the same? Russophobic statement.
    2. Flight Offline Flight
      Flight (voi) 5 February 2023 06: 19
      Helped the beneficiary build a dacha in Gelendzhik.
  6. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 2 February 2023 23: 07
    in general, Sergei wrote correctly, I’ll add that we are really a great continental power, as much as I write that we don’t need large military surface ships, for the production of tankers a number of factories need to be redesigned, that is, all shipyards (except for Sevmash Admiralty Shipyards and the Sredne Nevsky Shipyard) must complete begun warships and build tankers, river dry cargo ships (for trade with fraternal Iran) because the navy constantly needs new only nuclear submarines, submarines and minesweepers, you can return to the construction of frigates in 10 years and a little more now build Chamois and Dugongs for landing .. ..
  7. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
    Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 2 February 2023 23: 11
    Actually, even 15 years ago, the eastern range of railway roads was quite enough in abundance and the issue of expansion was in the distant future. No one thought that coal would go like a river, and then oil.
  8. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 3 February 2023 09: 29
    For a real turn to the East, Russia will have to build BAM-2 and Trans-Siberian-2

    Is it not possible for Russia to turn inward?!
    They were a raw material appendage of the West.
    Now we strive to become a raw material appendage of the East.
    Or that selling raw materials is easier to steal?
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 February 2023 14: 20
      Everything is somewhat different, the top officials and "oligarchs" under the power of the Russian Federation are enriched at the expense of the resources of the Russian Federation, so they are expanding new sales routes, because the old ones have closed. The statehood of Russia and its citizens do not receive their due share from the sale of national wealth (They go to various "funds", but not to expand the economy of the Russian Federation and the civil sector.), the lion's share goes personally to the layer of officials and the rich and is taken offshore. Now the situation has changed somewhat, we will see how the highest bureaucratic stratum of beneficiaries will act further, because many receipts are covered by sanctions and a failure in the SVO may threaten further permissiveness. But it seems that there will be no big changes for citizens, everything will go to the NWO and further enrichment of the former beneficiaries.
  9. Ulan.1812 Offline Ulan.1812
    Ulan.1812 (Boris Gerasimov) 3 February 2023 12: 22
    I didn’t understand something, but what passed the author’s attention, that the reconstruction of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway is already underway, in order to increase the throughput and carrying capacity.
    Second tracks, electrification, second tunnels and bridges are being laid at BAM.
    Fortunately, from the very beginning, the clearing of the route was under double-track.
    On the Trans-Siberian, station tracks are lengthened for the reception of heavy trains, narrow tracks are expanded, and a heavier ballast track and rails are laid. The entire Trans-Siberian is already electrified.
    And personally to Mr. Marzhetsky - shamefully chickened out by blocking me in the discussion on Rogozin. What showed their weakness and illiteracy.
  10. Foxsvl Offline Foxsvl
    Foxsvl (Vladimir) 3 February 2023 17: 29
    I would like to repair the column, street, water folding ...
    Sorry for preventing the global economy from building, I guess.
    And even a therapist in our village ...
  11. naive Offline naive
    naive (naive (Peter)) 4 February 2023 08: 03
    Quote: Scharnhorst
    I'll start from afar. I remember my father needed 50 kopecks to fill a full tank of a motorcycle with a sidecar Dnepr K-650. Gasoline A-76 cost 2 kopecks per liter!...

    Gasoline in the USSR never cost 2 kopecks per liter
    Google to help you
    In fact, it was free. In the mid-70s, we were boys riding motorcycles in the villages and you could approach any driver and he poured a bucket without any problems. Everyone in the village who had cars in their garages had a barrel where gasoline was poured from collective farm vehicles. The fact is that everywhere there was a system of postscripts. Drivers are given a ticket in which he indicates how many kilometers he has traveled and, depending on this, a salary is calculated and, of course, everything was attributed. And if in our collective farm it still kept within some limits, then in the city ATP it was a nightmare. In 1984, a deputy came up to me. chairman of the collective farm and offered a new car. But she had to work for cleaning for 6 months. Married drivers did not want to leave home. I was 22 at the time and didn't care. The new car was the dream of every driver. About 130 people from all over the region were gathered in Orenburg in one ATP and created a convoy to be sent for cleaning in the Orenburg region. Vouchers surrendered to the ATP in Orenburg. Everyone there didn’t care, because it was a complete mess. So there were such postscripts that the boys just drove into the landings and stupidly poured gasoline onto the ground and again refueled the cars to meet the assigned kilometers. And so it was throughout the USSR.
  12. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 4 February 2023 09: 34
    Quote from Nelton.
    On this stereotype, the entire strategy of the United States / Ukraine against the Russian Federation is based on the fact that it is worth imposing sanctions - and damn it.
    But the country keeps and develops

    Keeps I agree with you but develops? Where? On the VO, the topic is being vigorously discussed for the second day where Patrushev himself, which is strange, writes that there are not enough 14000 engineers for aircraft factories. For 23 years no one cared, but here Patrushev himself asks this question. you have to hit and hit very hard and powerfully, and those who at the top just started to notice problems in our country. So, don’t expect any breakthroughs in the next 10 years. But the country will not be able to make a breakthrough with managers, economists, coaches, bloggers and pizza deliverymen. The wave of problems is already closer than on the horizon, the problems are still ahead, and in order to make a leap forward, we need to solve problems and remove obstacles, and we saw obstacles only 23 years later and we will think about how to remove them for so many more, but rather we will all decide to simply bypass that not to fill your head with such difficulties.
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 4 February 2023 18: 22
      Quote: Valera75
      but developing? Where?

      First, the construction of infrastructure and housing facilities continues.
      Quite tangible commissioning of new roads, bridges, schools, etc.

      A large program of oil refining modernization continues, and in each commissioned facility the share of Russian equipment is 70% or more.

      The development programs of the gas processing plant, mining and chemical complex, shipbuilding, energy, metallurgy are going on as usual...

      This year received a huge boost to the development of component manufacturers.

      So everything is clear with the development in the medium term.
  13. Moscow Offline Moscow
    Moscow 7 February 2023 02: 43
    There is an acute issue of resuscitation of the cargo-passenger HSR Moscow-Kazan - Yekaterinburg - Beijing, which was conceived with the participation of China. It was planned that by 2024 this road would be built to Kazan. Most of the design documentation was developed by the Chinese company Er Yuan by order of Russian Railways. But the project was considered economically inexpedient by a number of experts and state officials. figures, including the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Siluanov, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Medvedev, who convinced the President of the Russian Federation Putin of the economic inexpediency of the road to China.
    Now it is clear that this was a big mistake and it needs to be corrected.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 7 February 2023 19: 30
      In general, the HSR is primarily a passenger road. Not all cargoes are sent through it - it's expensive. And you need a lot of passengers, and we are not China. There is obviously no extra money, especially since for such money you can build three ordinary railways, which the east of Russia needs.
  14. Shuev Offline Shuev
    Shuev 7 February 2023 09: 44
    For a real turn to the East

    From Londongrad "All that is acquired by overwork" to Dubai

    or the small land of the Golan Heights
  15. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
    Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 11 February 2023 22: 16
    If the Chinese and Koreans are allowed in, the road will appear relatively quickly. This is if the PRC really needs it.
  16. Otto Davar Offline Otto Davar
    Otto Davar (Otto Davar) 14 February 2023 18: 06
    ✔️Oleg Tsarev about the policy of the Central Bank - for the channel "Kremlin laundress"

    Having moved from Ukraine to Russia, I was surprised that the Russian Central Bank is unprofitable, and its losses are covered by the budget. How is this possible if you print (issue) money yourself and sell it?

    In Ukraine, where there are an order of magnitude less natural resources, where there are problems with the foreign exchange balance, the National Bank was profitable and transferred money to the budget - refinanced banks and made money on it, and banks lended to the economy. All over the world, national banks are profitable, and in Russia they are unprofitable.

    After a while, I understood why: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not lend to banks. Moreover, instead of pouring money through banks at the refinancing rate into the Russian economy, which is in dire need of money, it withdraws money from the market, placing it with itself at the same rate. Commercial banks place record amounts of funds on deposits with the Central Bank. So, at the weekly deposit auction on February 7, this volume amounted to more than 5 (!!!) trillion rubles. To pay interest on such a gigantic amount, the Central Bank is forced to crawl into the budget and take money there.

    Do you understand what's the matter? Let me remind you that the Central Bank is a super-reliable and therefore profitable borrower for any commercial bank. Placing money in the Central Bank at 7,5% and not incurring any risks is more profitable than issuing a loan to a really operating enterprise at 15%. Therefore, enterprises do not receive money.

    If the Central Bank stopped withdrawing money from banks, then an absurd situation would arise: due to an excess of money in the accounts, commercial banks would be forced to lend to the economy. Moreover, with an excess supply of money, and 5 trillion is no joke, real interest on loans would fall below the Central Bank refinancing rate. In this case, the Central Bank with its overpriced rate would look ridiculous. And so that the Central Bank does not look ridiculous, we pay monstrous sums from the budget, underpaying old people's pensions and teachers' salaries.

    My friends, Russian economists, are sure that the Central Bank behaves this way, because the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is a foreign agent, works for the West and the IMF. I don't think so. If such a key figure worked for foreign intelligence services, our President, a former KGB officer, would have already dealt with this. I think that the Central Bank in its activities is simply guided solely by the interests of several Russian export-oriented companies. The Central Bank has to drop the ruble all the time so that exporters have the maximum profit (although much, but you always want more). This is a very non-trivial task in the conditions of a monstrous foreign trade surplus. To bind part of the proceeds, the National Welfare Fund was invented and the binding of the currency to the growing gold reserves for no reason. But with a falling ruble, inflation is growing, and the task of the Central Bank is to reduce inflation. And the Central Bank withdraws money from the economy in order to stop the growth of inflation. We pay for this from the budget - the country is robbed all the time, reducing the exchange rate of the ruble. Savings and salaries are depreciating, and financial speculators close to the Central Bank and, most importantly, exporters, are cashing in on the jumps in the exchange rate. The whole country runs on the profits of a few export companies.
    The simplest thing that can be done in order to curb inflation is to strengthen the ruble and reduce the tariffs of natural monopolies - electricity, gas, oil products, railway transportation. But no one will do this. They will do everything to ensure that monopolies and exporters continue to earn their superprofits.

    The Russian economy will not develop until this cycle is broken. There is no country in the world richer in natural resources. Resources, imposed or lifted sanctions - all this will not affect our lives in any way. There will be no growth in GDP and welfare of the population in the country until the policy of the Central Bank is changed.

    I read the news: "The Bank of Russia has kept its key rate at 7,5%." Judging by the forecasts, in the future the Central Bank will further increase the refinancing rate. That is, it will get worse. We will pay even more from the budget for an enchanting banquet of exporters and financial speculators. And further. At the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the refinancing rate is not about refinancing at all. This is about the rate (bribe) paid to commercial banks for NOT lending to the economy.