The expansion of the Turkish Stream puts Russia in critical dependence on Ankara

The expansion of the Turkish Stream puts Russia in critical dependence on Ankara

On October 12, 2022, President Putin proposed turning Turkey into a new international gas hub to replace Germany. Slightly "stunned" by such an unexpected fall of happiness, Ankara took a couple of days to think and quite expectedly agreed.


money in the pipe


Speaking at the Russian Energy Week forum, the guarantor of the Russian Constitution offered Ankara the role of Europe's new main gas hub:

The lost volume of transit through the Nord Streams, along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, we could move to the Black Sea region and thus make the main routes for the supply of our fuel, our natural gas to Europe through Turkey, creating in Turkey the largest gas hub for Europe.

According to the Turkish TV channel TRT, President Erdogan approved the idea of ​​his Russian colleague:

Together with Russian President Vladimir Putin, we instructed the energy ministers to start the relevant work. We have a national distribution center [for gas], but it will be international.

The future gas distribution center will be built in Turkish Thrace. In Russia, however, the gas transmission system will first have to be expanded, stretching it all the way from Yamal, from where Germany has recently received "blue fuel", to Anapa. At least two more strings of the Turkish Stream main pipeline will have to be laid along the bottom of the Black Sea, bringing its total capacity to 63 billion cubic meters, as originally planned, after the refusal to cooperate with Bulgaria on the South Stream. The cost of laying an underwater gas pipeline is estimated at 7 to 10 billion dollars.

Like us told earlier, Putin's idea might look like this. Gazprom, at its own expense, or rather, at the expense of the federal budget, is building another pipeline in the hope that Ukrainian saboteurs will not immediately blow it up. Russian gas, if allowed, will be delivered to the Turkish border, where it will become the property of the operating company, and then it will resell it as its own at a market price. Obviously, a serious "friendly" discount for Ankara, which has the status of a monopoly when purchasing from Gazprom, cannot be avoided. At the same time, Turkish partners can easily twist Moscow's hands in the issue of issuing a permit for the construction of an underwater gas pipeline across the Caspian to supply Turkmen gas to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor.

Let's face it, the idea is objectively so-so. Under the conditions of the infrastructure war started by the “hegemon”, the only sane alternative to main pipelines is LNG. The extracted natural gas can be liquefied in special refrigeration units, pumped into LNG tankers and sent by sea to any part of the world. The navy will be able to ensure the safety of a caravan of such tankers by providing escort vessels. This, by the way, once again proves the need for Russia to transform from a "great continental power" into a great maritime one.

Those 7-10 billion dollars that will be mediocrely thrown away from the federal budget can and should be directed to the construction of new LNG plants, LNG terminals and LNG tankers, as well as import substitution of Western equipment. The same is true for the construction of new refineries in Russia itself and the transition to export by sea not only of crude oil, but, above all, of its refined products. Only the sea and its own fleet, commercial and military to protect it, are able to ensure our country's share in the global energy market. But no, instead of developing the LNG industry, oil refining and shipbuilding, billions of dollars will be invested in pipelines that have finally discredited themselves to the delight of their general contractors.

Worse, by voluntarily offering Turkey to become Europe's largest gas hub, the Kremlin is allowing one of Russia's most irreconcilable historical adversaries and competitors to gain an economic foothold.

Right now, "sultan" Erdogan is actively promoting the pan-Turkist integration project in the zone of traditional influence of Moscow, objectively crossing her path. Our CSTO allies - Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Armenia - are now thinking about leaving this organization with the possibility of joining the "Central Asian NATO" under the auspices of Turkey. Instead of preventing this by weakening a direct competitor, our guarantor himself helps him gain strength. It is clear that all these "multi-move" in understanding is not for average minds, but still, what is the logic? Why pump up the economy a potential direct adversary, a country that is part of the NATO bloc, which, by the way, has views of our Central Asia, and put itself in critical dependence on it, when can you finally get rid of all these unreliable transit countries by investing in the LNG industry?
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  1. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 15 October 2022 09: 51
    +4
    Gazprom received a face from the European Union with a "rake" for Nord Streams.
    Washed, but not washed.
    Little appeared.
    Now I decided to get more from Turkey.
    Well, if you are so unbearable and want to pump gas to Europe, free Ukraine and pump it through its system.
    Pipes already lie there and will lie, but already on our territory.
    And no one dares blow up.
  2. qsemjon Offline qsemjon
    qsemjon (Semyon) 15 October 2022 10: 15
    0
    One thing is not clear. Why is Germany better than Turkey? Because of Germany, there was no noise.
    With this amount of work. A lot of time will fly away, and there the donkey can speak.
  3. Eduard Aplombov Offline Eduard Aplombov
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 15 October 2022 10: 41
    +1
    for writers from journalism, golden times have come, write as much as you can fit on the pages of publications, the war with Ukraine, the war with NATO, sabotage of flows, new pipeline routes
    You can compose in any format, satire, science fiction, serious analytics...
    for example, this opus-author did not think that in the current period any flows to the west are dangerous and their safety is questionable
    and flows to Asia are not dangerous7
    how to understand the budget if you don’t sell oil and gas, to those who are ready to pay a lot of money for them, salt or close production, that is, increase unemployment, reduce the profit of the treasury
    oh, we supply the hostile West with resources, but someone calculated, gave the figures of our expenses for the extraction and delivery of, for example, gas to Europe and the income from them to the country's treasury, that is, what is the benefit to us, Russia, from the sold oil and gas
    however, what am I talking about. After all, the layman does not believe that losses from unsold goods will affect him first of all, I am sure that the state is simply obliged to teach his children for free. maintain an army, protect him from adversaries, develop science and everything around, but sell nini to the West or just a little bit
  4. Shmurzik Offline Shmurzik
    Shmurzik (Seymslav) 15 October 2022 10: 44
    +1
    At the same time, Turkish partners can easily twist Moscow's hands in the issue of issuing a permit for the construction of an underwater gas pipeline across the Caspian to supply Turkmen gas to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor.

    You apparently don’t know that during the last gathering of the Caspians, they agreed that the laying of all kinds of trans-Caspian communications will be in the legal field of those within whose borders they will be located without regard to the opinions of the rest ?????

    Why pump up the economy of a potential direct enemy, a country that is part of the NATO bloc, which, by the way, has views of our Central Asia, and put yourself in critical dependence on it, when can you finally get rid of all these unreliable transit countries by investing in the LNG industry?

    Thats yoursCentral Asia is running headlong in search of another safe haven ... And Rohmon, in general, openly kicked the darkest, demanding equal treatment ...
    So, dear Marzhetsky, with such an attitude towards neighbors, it’s time to build a wall on the borders now, otherwise the neighbors will get ahead, and there will be no opportunity to claim exclusivity for the ownership of this know-how !!!
    Dogs.
    The Finns have already fussed, the Balts, the Poles are also already driving construction equipment ...
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 15 October 2022 10: 52
    -2
    This is all Putin's Cunning Plan.

    On the previous points of the HPP - the construction of a nuclear power plant, ships and docks in Turkey - I have not seen something in the media for a long time. Probably already done? 2 floating docks, several large ships were built and transferred to Russia, and a power plant was completed ???
  6. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 15 October 2022 11: 39
    +3
    Maybe as long as Erdogan is in power, this will work. But the situation could change radically if Erdogan is replaced by a pro-Atlantic leader, which is very likely
    1. Shmurzik Offline Shmurzik
      Shmurzik (Seymslav) 15 October 2022 11: 53
      -2
      Quote: Colonel Kudasov
      But the situation could change radically if Erdogan is replaced by a pro-Atlantic leader, which is very likely

      Absolutely incredible ! For 30 years (in my memory), the Turks have always been valued for their loyalty to their obligations ... And as far as I remember, they only reacted to changes in the rules of the game by others, sometimes behaving extremely stubbornly.
  7. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 15 October 2022 13: 09
    -2
    A well-drafted agreement levels out this very critical dependence.
  8. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 15 October 2022 16: 36
    0
    The expansion of the Turkish Stream puts Russia in critical dependence on Ankara

    A voice crying in the wilderness...
  9. Benjamin Offline Benjamin
    Benjamin (Benjamin) 15 October 2022 18: 18
    +1
    Became dependent on 2 world powers, under the existing regime, forward to the Mayama level
  10. Art Pilot Offline Art Pilot
    Art Pilot (pilot) 15 October 2022 18: 22
    0
    ...and Turkey in critical dependence on Moscow.
  11. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 16 October 2022 08: 51
    +1
    To the critical dependence on Ukraine, Poland, NATO, the critical dependence on Turkey will simply be added ... Gas will find a hole ... But it won’t find xp with it ... I still don’t have it.
  12. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 16 October 2022 21: 26
    +1
    By the time TP2 is built, Russia will have UGTS under control. Together with Ukraine (former). Turkey will be able to supply Europe with as much gas as it will be allowed (they will allocate a share).
    And, most likely, Turkey was promised Cyprus. And some pieces of the market in the Balkans and in Russia. And then his lira is pouring in, inflation is through the roof and a deficit in the foreign trade balance (this is with an export economy). They threw a life buoy to him, without this the country would go crazy.
    With these promises, Erdogan was bought with giblets, giving hope to win an early election. On such promises, he will be able to build an elective company. Without them - will lose with a bang. In exchange for this, he will forget about his ambitions in the East and his attachment to the World Bank.
    At the time of Erdogan's inauguration for the first term (August 2014), the lira was worth 46 US cents. Today - 5,4 cents.
    October 2021 inflation in Turkey was 19.89%, in September 2022. - 83,45%.
    In this state, all that remains is to build a great empire ...
    Would not die ...
  13. Ch19 Offline Ch19
    Ch19 (Evgeniy ) 19 October 2022 14: 48
    0
    In a flexible approach to the question, why not. Force the Turks to build pipes along the bottom of the sea, let them guard them later and pile on whoever dares to touch them. And we will throw on land. If the Turks invest in the project, everything will be mutually beneficial, the gas still needs to be sold somewhere, while it is still being bought, a factory should be installed at the border for cleaning and separating, so to speak, "extra" associated gases (as is done on the border with China) and that's all well, the industry will go uphill.