Is it reasonable for Russia to transfer "German" gas volumes to Turkey?


The day before, President Putin came up with another high-profile initiative, proposing to make Turkey the new main gas hub in Europe instead of Germany. This proposal came as a surprise not only to industry experts and ordinary Russians, but also to Ankara itself. What is it, the convulsions of the management of Gazprom, stubbornly not wanting to get off the pipeline needle, or a wonderful business idea, which only our country lacked for complete happiness in the conditions of a proxy war with the collective West?


On the same rake?


Speaking at the Russian Energy Week forum, Vladimir Putin proposed redirecting Russian gas exports to Turkey instead of the undermined Nord Streams:

The lost volume of transit through the Nord Streams, along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, we could move to the Black Sea region and thus make the main routes for the supply of our fuel, our natural gas to Europe through Turkey, creating in Turkey the largest gas hub for Europe.

Recall that two Russian gas pipelines, the Blue Stream and the Turkish Stream, are already operating along the bottom of the Black Sea in the direction of Turkey. The capacity of the first is about 16-17 billion cubic meters per year, the second - 31,5 billion cubic meters. In order to transfer “German” gas volumes from the northern corridor to the southern one, it will first be necessary to build the appropriate trunk infrastructure from Yamal to Anapa, as well as at least two additional Turkish Stream lines along the bottom of the Black Sea. There are no specific details from officials yet, however, industry experts see a possible concept of Russian-Turkish cooperation as follows: Ankara could buy all the volumes it supplies from Gazprom and resell them at a premium to European consumers.

In other words, this is the reincarnation of the original idea of ​​the Turkish Stream with a total capacity of 63 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which Gazprom tried to promote to replace the unrealized South Stream through Bulgaria, only in a more complicated form and in an extremely negative geopolitical situation. Is Putin's proposal adequate to the spirit of the time?

On reflection, such an initiative seems inappropriate due to the following factors.

At first, it should be borne in mind that it was Ankara itself that at one time abandoned the Turkish Stream in the version with four threads, limiting itself to only two. "Sultan" Erdogan has long been striving to turn his country into a major gas hub, diversifying the sources of blue fuel to the maximum. This includes Azerbaijani gas, Iranian gas, Russian gas, and LNG. Just a few days ago, Ankara and Baku agreed to double the capacity of the TANAP pipeline, up to 32 billion cubic meters per year, and in the medium term, its capacity can be increased to 60 billion cubic meters. It will be possible to fill these volumes with the supply of Iranian, Iraqi, Israeli, Cypriot and even Turkmen gas, about which we told previously. Turkey will act as a hub and transit country.

And here his partner Vladimir Putin comes to President Erdogan and offers to extend two more strings of the Turkish Stream to him at the expense of the Russian budget and become a reseller. The billion-dollar question: will the Sultan then, using his unique position, twist the arms of Gazprom, bringing down the price to ridiculous values, and what will prevent him from doing this? What exactly is business for Russia?

Secondly, for some reason numerous geopolitical risks are taken out of the brackets.

What if, instead of Erdogan's "friend and partner", a sharply anti-Russian protégé of the United States eventually comes to power?

What if Ukrainian combat swimmers blow up a gas pipeline running along the bottom of the Black Sea, as has already happened with both Nord Streams?

What if the pipeline network explodes on land as well, somewhere in southeastern Europe?

Thirdly, it is not clear whether the Europeans will subsequently agree to buy “repackaged” Russian gas from Ankara? Let's say Gazprom is now pumping another budget billions into the high-risk construction of new Turkish Stream lines, and they will take it and rest, referring to their "green agenda". And what then, will it be for pennies to supply blue fuel to the Turks for the sake of their economic prosperity? Whose interests are generally defended, sorry?

Finally, the very formulation of the issue with the construction of the next bypass gas pipeline is incomprehensible. Right now, mobilization is being carried out in Russia, and there are real chances to end the war with Ukraine in our favor by the spring-summer of 2023. Then Gazprom will be able to gain physical control over the Ukrainian GTS, which is capable of pumping as much gas as Europe needs. This is what should have been done in 2014-2015, but not too late in 2022-2023 either. Even if the “American partners” end up blowing up the Ukrainian pipelines, investing in the construction of LNG plants in Russia and a tanker fleet that will allow the export of liquefied gas to any part of the world seems immeasurably more reasonable than another underwater pipeline that makes no sense in a proxy war.
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  1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 13 October 2022 13: 28
    +5
    What is it, the convulsions of the management of Gazprom, stubbornly not wanting to get off the pipeline needle,

    Well said. Exactly. The bad thing is that such a leadership of Gazprom influences Putin, but it should be the other way around
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 13 October 2022 20: 22
      +2
      Isn't it clear that for the next decade Europe is CLOSED for the goods of the Russian Federation. Why unnecessary plans and attempts, here Asia is all on the rise, and to direct its resources there, and the United States does not dominate there everywhere. Don't forget Latin America, there's also a lot to offer, from fertilizers to other commodities. With the blockade and sanctions, other markets take advantage, the world has not converged on decrepit Europe for a long time ... (There is a blessing in disguise) A lot of positive things in sanctions, Russia is entering the wide world.
      1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 14
        0
        That's right, Vladimir. One of the options is precisely the transfer of gas flows not to decrepit Europe controlled by senile people.
    2. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 22
      0
      Colonel, powerful financial and technological complex of the country *convulsing?* Well, well... Dreaming is not harmful to anyone.
    3. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 34
      0
      Colonel, no one controls Putin except the people of Russia by electing him to the highest post in the state.
    4. Romanovski Offline Romanovski
      Romanovski (Roman) 18 October 2022 10: 30
      0
      Most likely, the cunning sultan "promised" something to Putin in order to squeeze the maximum resources out of FIGHTING (!) Russia and force Russia to make painful concessions in the Transcaucasus, Syria, and probably further down the list .... Maybe that's why the CSTO does not notice at point blank range frequent (!) provocations and territorial encroachments of Azerbaijan already on the borders of Armenia itself, which caused hundreds (!) of deaths on both sides ??? Can the interests of the fraternal Armenian people and the CSTO ally be sacrificed??? So even 100 years ago, Kemal Ataturk proved in practice the "value" of the Turkish "promises", with the help of which he THROW Lenin, and the saddest thing - Russia, which was at war and bleeding in a civil war .... How did Ataturk deceive Lenin ?? I received from Lenin as a gift and WITHOUT A SINGLE SHOT the Kars region of Armenia, from which I had previously achieved the withdrawal of Russian and Armenian troops, and then from the warring and starving Russia I RECEIVED dozens (!) Echelons of wheat (!), Weapons (50000 rifles, many guns and millions of cartridges...), a couple of tons of GOLD and then in 1918. - attacked Armenia ... But, he suffered a major defeat from the Armenians in Sardarapat (1918). And after Lenin died in 1924. - Ataturk gathered all (!) Communists in Turkey itself, loaded them onto a barge and sank them in the Black Sea ....
  2. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 13 October 2022 13: 53
    +8
    all falling export volumes should be used to the maximum within the country - gasification + plants for processing gas into plastics and fertilizers, gas motor fuel with a network of filling stations ... but this needs to be "worked", and few people want to work here, it is better to trade ...
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 10
      0
      Vladimir, and for what grandmas inside a huge country to use * all the dropping export volumes? * Or hundreds of thousands of km. to every village - inside the country, will they fall from the sky? Or are they being built for the money earned from the sale of gas outside of it?
      1. isofat Offline isofat
        isofat (isofat) 17 October 2022 21: 16
        0
        Oleg, "dropping export volumes" will no longer be asked for money. These tools can be used... yes
  3. Monax Offline Monax
    Monax (Hermann) 13 October 2022 13: 56
    0
    And what will prevent the burning of LNG transports? It even seems to me easier. Although I may be wrong.
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 07
      0
      No, Monk, you are not mistaken, everything is said correctly.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 13 October 2022 14: 07
    -3
    Money does not smell.
    If you follow this, then he does the right thing.

    Part of the money to the Kremlin oligarchs of Gazprom, part of Turkey (it is growing economically and it needs profit), but terrorism, sultanism and the "murder" of a Russian pilot ....
    Everyone has already forgotten, money and partnership (Lavrov) are more important ...
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 04
      0
      That's right, Sergey, money does not smell, and especially earned by honest labor for the benefit of the family, village, region, region, state. Erdogans come and go, but the Turkish people remain.
  5. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 13 October 2022 14: 37
    +2
    The country does not see export earnings. Someone's yachts do not count. It seems to me that it is better for the country that the volumes of gas remain in the depths!
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 21: 01
      0
      Volumes of gas to remain in the bowels? And fill the budget with drawn papers?
  6. Scharnhorst Offline Scharnhorst
    Scharnhorst (Scharnhorst) 13 October 2022 16: 51
    +2
    The Americans have grown wiser - they are withdrawing high-tech production from Europe to their Oklohomia and Louisiana. We should not be shy either - to take from Europe everything that does not belong to us, but at least to the Donbass! Raw materials and energy are in abundance in the country. We must stop building pipelines to China, Turkey, Europe, and so on. We provide competitors (enemies) for the cheapest transport with the cheapest raw materials and thereby bind ourselves the freedom of maneuver to other consumers and markets.
    1. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
      Vox_Populi (vox populi) 14 October 2022 14: 17
      0
      Yoprst!!! The proposal is simply cosmic scale and the same stupidity. winked Who will let us "pick up" production from the EU???
      1. Scharnhorst Offline Scharnhorst
        Scharnhorst (Scharnhorst) Today, 12: 31
        -1
        За деньги и Кто даст, и Что даст, и Куда даст! За деньги не только услуги проституток покупают но и девственность... fool
  7. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
    Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 13 October 2022 19: 08
    +1
    Until you undermine the western thread comparable to the northern one, the threat to the southern one will continue, not to mention the construction of new ones. On what guarantees does the south rest?
  8. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 13 October 2022 20: 15
    +2
    I think the author is in a hurry, strongly overtaking the locomotive. It’s not about the pipes ready for laying, but about the conversation that has begun. Having torn off Germany from the tit of cheap energy, and, at the same time, having destroyed it in the clutches of the liquid-gas tyrant, and, in the future, Poland, this tit is offered to other participants. Cheer up, allies! Did the States cough a little at Erdogan? Watch the events, in a week you will see the results of this "offer".
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 13 October 2022 21: 38
      +1
      (Victor) Humor: "having killed her in the clutches of a liquid-gas tyrant" replace with, "killing her in the clutches of a jewish-dollar tyrant", So everything else is correct, the United States begins a strategic offensive, how a flock of mongrels will behave, a question for a tote, because everything depends on many things ...
  9. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 13 October 2022 20: 33
    0
    Vladimir Putin proposed reorienting Russian gas exports to Turkey instead of the undermined Nord Streams:

    One loot in my head, but where are the interests of Russia!!!! And let Europe supply weapons to Ukraine!
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 13 October 2022 23: 14
      +1
      Turkey is "and not a friend, and not an enemy, but so ....", as Vysotsky sang. And gas pipelines are all being built at the expense of Gazprom and Russian loans.
      1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 20: 54
        0
        There are no enemies or friends in business - expediency.
    2. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 20: 56
      0
      Steelmaker, loot is the interest of Russia, like any state.
  10. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 13 October 2022 21: 37
    0
    The incomes of the hucksters fell, and the EU also counted and shed a tear. We, i.e. The EU-NATO will kill you Russians in Ukraine, but gas and oil are business, it's all personal. Since the gas comes from Turkey, the EU is not a part of it. The contract will make Turkey a gasket between the Russian Federation and the EU. Russian hucksters have wives, children, relatives living in the EU, and you want to freeze them, deprive them of a beautiful life. Will not work.
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 20: 52
      0
      We, i.e. Russia, we will supply you with EU-NATO gas at an inflated price, and with the proceeds we will kill Bandera and EU-NATO mercenaries in Ukraine. Nothing personal - business!
  11. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 14 October 2022 08: 44
    0
    Reserve - Ukrainian branch ... In the order of denazification ...
  12. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 14 October 2022 14: 14
    0
    Given at least the existing experience, the questions asked by the author are more than relevant!
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 20: 47
      0
      Questions involve analysis, perspective, decision, and action. Only those who do nothing do not make mistakes. Are questions directed to God relevant?
  13. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 15 October 2022 11: 51
    -1
    What is confusing is this: the construction of such a long pipeline is a very profitable business for Gazprom managers, contractors and officials in the share. What will happen next, they do not care, they will already remove their percentage (previously it was from 50 to 75%). The losses are borne by us.
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 20: 43
      0
      What will be expressed in the losses that * are hung on us? * Who are we?
  14. sat2004 Online sat2004
    sat2004 16 October 2022 18: 26
    -1
    I turned to the guarantor 20 times, REMINDED THE ARTICLES OF THE CONSTITUTION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, in connection with the violation of my constitutional rights. There was always one answer "the president cannot interfere", although under Article 83 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, Putin V.V. took an oath, undertook to protect my rights. The Administration of the President of the Russian Federation sent my appeals everywhere, the issue was never resolved, the Central Bank, the Prosecutor General's Office, the tax authorities, consumer protection, the police, did not receive answers only from the ISS. I will be celebrating my first year soon. And then suddenly such a gift to the Turks, you don’t recognize the borders of Russia, and we will add cheap gas to you, you will earn more, send more weapons to Ukraine. As in the famous movie "and silence".
  15. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 October 2022 20: 40
    +1
    That's interesting - if the author were the head of state, what would this territory be called?
  16. ZnahWest Offline ZnahWest
    ZnahWest (Ingvar b) 18 October 2022 01: 03
    0
    Turkey is the first historical enemy of Russia. The hub will make it even stronger.
  17. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 19 October 2022 20: 21
    0

    What are you going to do to plug that red hole in the budget? Or does the framework of a legal education prevent one from descending to this low, vulgar land? How are you going to receive your pension when your time comes? We are 42 million. And the PFR is filled from the budget, not out of thin air. The army, the police, there, health care, which you tirelessly care about. Again, school. Education, (it will not be said by nightfall, because we have such lawyers as ....) The pranks of the Rogozins, Chubais .... Come on, honestly, as in spirit. Only not about the deep future and not cursing yesterday. TODAY how to be?
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  19. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 19 October 2022 20: 26
    0
    Quote: sat2004
    I turned to the guarantor 20 times, REMINDED THE ARTICLES OF THE CONSTITUTION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, in connection with the violation of my constitutional rights. There was always one answer "the president cannot interfere", although under Article 83 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, Putin V.V. took an oath, undertook to protect my rights. The Administration of the President of the Russian Federation sent my appeals everywhere, the issue was never resolved, the Central Bank, the Prosecutor General's Office, the tax authorities, consumer protection, the police, did not receive answers only from the ISS. I will be celebrating my first year soon. And then suddenly such a gift to the Turks, you don’t recognize the borders of Russia, and we will add cheap gas to you, you will earn more, send more weapons to Ukraine. As in the famous movie "and silence".

    This is who and where you were so pinched. Come on, tell me.
  20. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 19 October 2022 20: 28
    0
    Quote: kriten
    What is confusing is this: the construction of such a long pipeline is a very profitable business for Gazprom managers, contractors and officials in the share. What will happen next, they do not care, they will already remove their percentage (previously it was from 50 to 75%). The losses are borne by us.

    Laying a pipeline is COSTS, I would call you ......, but I don’t want to register again, because they will block it. Well, you don't care, do you understand? Or to explain in a personal? And in the nickname you have 2 errors. Swap two letters, it will be correct.
  21. bobba94 Offline bobba94
    bobba94 (Vladimir) 19 October 2022 20: 44
    0
    I read the comments - the people were extremely excited, but these were just words ....
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