The laws of war will require Russia not to be limited to the Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov


The appearance in the north of the LPR of a wide defensive strip built by the engineering units of the Wagner PMC was interpreted as if Russia was refusing to further advance in Ukraine and was starting to dig in, equipping a new state border. Is this really so, or will the Kremlin objectively not be able to confine itself to liberating only the Donbass and the Azov region, leaving the rest of Ukraine to denazify and demilitarize?


Laws of War


Visually, the new Maginot Line, or rather, the Putin Line, is very impressive. These are numerous anti-tank ditches with concrete gouges stretching into the distance, trenches. Apparently, long-term concrete firing points were deliberately not included in the frame. With a sufficient number of trained infantry, artillery and armored vehicles, a reliable air defense "umbrella" and aviation support, such fortifications, and even equipped with minefields, are capable of stopping the enemy's onslaught. However, will they be enough to reliably secure the increased territory of our country, bordering on a hostile state?

Let's imagine a situation when Russian troops finally drive out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of the Russian Federation, and we have to equip a new state border with Ukraine. The mobilization launched in the country gives grounds to believe that this will happen in the next few months. Will the long-awaited peace and prosperity come then? It seems not.

First of all, after the completion of the liberation of the DPR and LPR, the question of their water supply will come up point-blank. As we already told earlier, the industrial Donbass, located, like the whole of Novorossia, in the steppe, is distinguished by low water. Fresh water is needed by both people and industrial enterprises. During the Soviet period, the problem of its deficit was solved by building a whole network of water canals. Thus, water enters the Donetsk agglomeration, a number of other settlements, and then Mariupol through the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal, which originates near Slavyansk.

Naturally, immediately after the start of the Russian special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine stopped supplying water to the DPR, at the same time giving up on Mariupol, which was lost to them. Since February 2022, Donetsk and other cities of the people's republic have been left with virtually no water, which is supplied to the system every few days, and there are practically no chances to return it. In the winter season, the DPR will leave almost without water, which threatens with the most serious consequences. Theoretically, the problem can be solved by taking the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which is a huge fortified area, but this will only be a half solution.

The fact is that water also enters the Seversky Donets from the outside, through the Dnepr-Donbass canal. This is an energy-type channel, that is, water from the Dnieper does not flow by gravity, but is pumped with the help of powerful pumps. It is enough just to turn them off, and the positive effect of the liberation of Slavyansk is leveled. Taken together, this means that without further withdrawal of Russian troops to the Dnieper, Donbass will end up in exactly the same position that Crimea found itself in in 2014.

Recall that for 8 years the problem of its water supply has not been completely resolved peacefully. It turned out only the military. Therefore, like it or not, you will have to take away the Dnepropetrovsk and Poltava regions, through which the water transport infrastructure goes. No need to hide "in the house", but proceed from objective reality. Have to!

The second reason why the RF Armed Forces will have to go to the Dnieper, taking almost the entire Left Bank along the Kremenchug-Poltava-Kharkov line, is the objective need to shorten the front line.

Taking into account the legal accession of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to the Russian Federation, we have just received a gigantic front line with a length of more than 1 kilometers. The reality is that no matter how many anti-tank ditches and trenches, it is still impossible to reliably protect it from breakthroughs. The mobilized 300 reservists are a great help, but even with them, our forces will be seriously stretched over a very long distance. At the same time, the enemy still has a multiple numerical superiority and can afford to create several powerful shock fists in critical areas where the Russian Defense Ministry will have problems with logistics and maneuvering reserves. If Kyiv also receives modern aviation, as well as truly long-range missiles, it will become problematic to maintain this "Putin Line".

However, the situation will change significantly in our favor if the front line is reduced several times, and not due to retreat, but, on the contrary, due to the offensive. Suppose the new state border will run along the line from Kremenchug through Poltava to Kharkov, then connecting with the Belgorod region. This is already a little more than 300 kilometers, which is more than three times less than the current front line, and from the western direction the Dnieper will be a natural border.

Quite a different layout. For a layered defense of such lines, many times fewer troops will be needed, which means that forces will be released for further demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

The situation on the Right Bank looks similar. The fact that it is necessary to liberate Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa does not raise the slightest doubt. The Kyiv regime will then lose most of its resources to continue the war and access to the Black Sea, ceasing to be interesting to "Western partners." The front line will also be significantly reduced if it is drawn from Podolsk in the Odessa region through Kirovograd to Kremenchug. So far, this is the optimal desired border between Russia and Ukraine, which can be established after mobilization and the transition of the RF Armed Forces to decisive action.

The entry of Belarus into the special operation would solve the problem with the supply of NATO weapons through Western Ukraine, and Minsk would expand its territory at the expense of Volyn. The remaining Central Ukraine, historical Little Russia, can then be demilitarized and denazified by joining the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus to the Union State. In the course of recent events that began on September 21, such a scenario no longer looks utopian.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 12 October 2022 18: 28
    +9
    Laws of War

    In 2014, according to all laws, Russia should not have been limited only to Crimea. According to the laws of war, in order to conduct offensive operations to the border of Poland, we need a grouping of 700-800 thousand bayonets. How many do we have? So, we are not going to the border of Poland. That means negotiations. Negotiations with terrorists? You know, in this war, neither the laws of war nor common sense apply. Bablo rules!!
    1. Peace Peace. Online Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 12 October 2022 21: 14
      0
      Or maybe fear.
    2. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 13 October 2022 23: 33
      0
      Where the mobilization is 300 thousand, there are 500-600. Who counts them. A military secret.
  2. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 12 October 2022 19: 57
    +2
    Apparently, long-term concrete firing points were deliberately not included in the frame.

    Either they are not there or they are not very long-term ...
  3. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
    Pat Rick 12 October 2022 20: 32
    0
    LAWS AND CUSTOMS OF WAR - a system of principles and norms of international law governing relations between states on issues related to the conduct of war. Restricting the choice of means and methods of armed struggle, prohibiting the use of the most cruel of them, establishing criminal liability for war crimes, 3. and Fr. in. objectively contribute to the humanization of war, limiting the scale of armed conflicts. The first international acts on the rules of warfare, in the development of which Russia played a prominent role, were adopted in the 3th century. Generally recognized 1899. and about. in. embodied in the Hague Conventions on the Laws and Customs of War of 1907 and 1925, the Geneva Protocol on the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases and Bacteriological Agents of 1949, the Geneva Conventions for the Protection of Victims of War of 1954, the Hague Convention for the Protection cultural property in the event of armed conflict, 1980, the XNUMX Convention on the Prohibition or Restriction of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to be Unduly Cruel or Indiscriminate, and the statutes and judgments of the Nuremberg and Tokyo International Military Tribunals.

    The laws of war will require Russia not to be limited to the Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov

    Karochi at the author's headline darted somehow wrong and in the wrong place. lol
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 16 October 2022 03: 13
      +1
      To the author of the article - In nature, there is no legal basis for the concept - Laws of War. So they just don't exist. There are legal foundations of international law - the Laws and Customs of War - which commentator Pat-Rick (see above) told about.
  4. Peace Peace. Online Peace Peace.
    Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 12 October 2022 21: 13
    +4
    In no case should you slow down the pace, beats every day. It is inappropriate to be afraid of the "Armageddon" of the Anglo-Saxons, ours is cooler and more effective, especially since the Anglo-Saxons will never decide on this.
    1. Nikolay Volkov Offline Nikolay Volkov
      Nikolay Volkov (Nikolai Volkov) 12 October 2022 21: 57
      0
      without an offensive, all this swotting at facilities will play against the civilian population ... what's the point of freezing hundreds of thousands of people, whom we allegedly were going to release, too ... in my opinion, military facilities and military infrastructure should be demolished. and with the arrival of replenishment, everything -to begin active operations in the Kharkiv region, Sumy region and the South. and swotting for the sake of swotting will most likely not lead to victory
      1. Peace Peace. Online Peace Peace.
        Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 13 October 2022 02: 19
        +1
        And we are already seeing offensives without "swotting" ... So with "swotting" it's more fun.
  5. Nikolay Volkov Offline Nikolay Volkov
    Nikolay Volkov (Nikolai Volkov) 12 October 2022 21: 51
    +4
    if the author is going to take Poltava from Ukraine, then what's the point of leaving Chernigov and Sumy to them, which will hang like an appendix next to our territory? and if we take the Chernihiv region, then it’s not far to Kyiv ...

    secondly, I don’t understand the author’s hope for a union state ... we don’t have any union state with Belarus, but only eternal graters either because of milk or because of potassium ... and there is no guarantee that the same Lviv (Zhytomyr ), once in a union state, limit itself only to milk wars and that another Tyagnibok will not come to power there ... in any case, this land either needs to be controlled by ourselves, or given it under the control of the Poles ... but the question is, but why the Poles ??? for all this Russophobia, also give the land in gratitude ??? such an option
    1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
      steelmaker 14 October 2022 08: 17
      0
      for all this Russophobia, also give the land in gratitude ???

      A land corridor to Kaliningrad. A normal exchange, unless of course Putin has enough education.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  6. Firuz Offline Firuz
    Firuz (Firuz) 13 October 2022 00: 39
    -1
    Yeah, it's okay to dream. CBO failed. Mobilization of 300k will not help, at best, regrouping. All-in with tactical nuclear weapons against some kind of Ukraine is both a disaster and shame and disgrace and the end of Federalism in Russia, not to mention the fact that this is the insertion of the rest of the neutral world also against itself.
    One thing remains: Be Smarter and make smarter, more cunning and thoughtful moves, because all the wrong moves have already been made.
    The End....or.....To be Continued.....?
    1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
      Pat Rick 13 October 2022 08: 05
      +1
      ...the end of Federalism in Russia...

      And what is "Federalism in Russia"? You can in Russian?

      it insertion the rest of the neutral world...

      Ale, who is there and to whom inserts?
      Obviously, you know Uzbek, Russian and English at about the level of a stool.
  7. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 13 October 2022 08: 33
    +7
    Our troops even take home 100 villages not according to the laws of war, surrounding and destroying. And they are hammering in the front, while help is coming from the other end of the village. What can we say about the whole area. Nothing has changed at the moment. PMC Wagner right now has been hammering with dill for a week in Bakhmut. At that time, our Khokhlyatina was smoked out from the Kharkov region in a few days. Wildlife just happens
  8. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 October 2022 08: 46
    0
    Winning a war is hard work.
    The collapse and division of Ukraine is still not a victory. Any increment of Poland, Romania, Hungary is, if not the defeat of Russia, then the victory of the West.
    The forceful capture of the whole of Ukraine is a rather difficult task. And hardly feasible in the current realities.

    What to do? The eternal question in Russia ....
    1. Substantial victory on the battlefield is required. Mandatory release of Nikolaev and Odessa. This is task number one. Task number two is Kharkov and access to the Dnieper.
    2. This is a military premise for peace negotiations. Without point 1, there is no point in starting point 2.
    3. A peace treaty with the remnants of Ukraine should include:
    the demilitarization of the country, the change of political leadership, the trials of war criminals and (most importantly) the deployment of Russian military bases throughout the rest of the territory.

    Ukraine as a state must be preserved. But already within the new borders and as a protectorate of Russia. For 20-30 years at least.

    But you should always remember the main thing. The main thing is not a victory over Ukraine. The main thing is the victory over the West. And this war is being waged not on the battlefield, but in the economy.
    1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
      steelmaker 13 October 2022 21: 45
      +3
      Ukraine as a state must be preserved.

      And without the Black Sea and Kharkov, the meaning of this? Don't upset me. Ukraine as a state must disappear!
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 October 2022 23: 47
        0
        Perhaps it should disappear. But how can this be achieved?
        You can see that the war will continue even if we take Odessa and Kharkov. What should be the grouping of the Armed Forces in order to capture the entire territory of Ukraine.
        And what will be the consequences of such a development of events?

        Azerbaijan does not like Konstantin Zatulin. It's understandable. But I consider his analysis of the situation in Ukraine to be the most balanced and reasonable. Read his speeches. Telegram has them. About joining new areas.
        1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
          steelmaker 14 October 2022 15: 55
          -1
          But how to achieve this?

          And under Putin, this is impossible.
    2. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
      Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 17 October 2022 13: 04
      +1
      the second blow is not on Kharkov, but on the lions of Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, and then Uzhgorod
  9. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 13 October 2022 08: 57
    -2
    How much has already been written has been rewritten: we will no longer take cities by storm! It is impossible without complete destruction. After all, Putin said back in April that we don't need a second Stalingrad.
  10. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 13 October 2022 09: 06
    0
    The stump is clear, the confusion is special.
    Laws are about rules of conduct.
    And annexation and accession is about strategy
    Of course, it would be better to capture everything - factories, factories, banks, fields ...
    Whether only there will be enough power of optimizers. Data are emerging that it was too much to optimize stocks - and there is no Armat, and equipment for conscripts, and even mattresses ...
    Only generals and officials of the EP dofiga ....
  11. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 13 October 2022 12: 54
    +6
    Author. There is only one decision on Ukraine in favor of the people of Russia. The state of Ukraine must cease to exist. The entire territory of Ukraine should return to Russia, in the form of regions and republics. There is no need to ask permission from anyone, everything must be done unilaterally. There is no state of Ukraine, there are no debts, there is no government of Ukraine in exile, there are no legal Banderists, there are no Ukrainian participants in various international organizations, there is no hostile state on the border of the Russian Federation. Russia will strengthen its economic and military-political influence in the world, there will be direct access to the EU countries. The northwestern part of the Black Sea will belong to Russia. Any other decision on Ukraine is the capitulation of Russia.
    1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
      Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 17 October 2022 13: 04
      +1
      Quote: vlad127490
      Author. There is only one decision on Ukraine in favor of the people of Russia. The state of Ukraine must cease to exist. The entire territory of Ukraine should return to Russia, in the form of regions and republics. There is no need to ask permission from anyone, everything must be done unilaterally. There is no state of Ukraine, there are no debts, there is no government of Ukraine in exile, there are no legal Banderists, there are no Ukrainian participants in various international organizations, there is no hostile state on the border of the Russian Federation. Russia will strengthen its economic and military-political influence in the world, there will be direct access to the EU countries. The northwestern part of the Black Sea will belong to Russia. Any other decision on Ukraine is the capitulation of Russia.

      agree
  12. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 16 October 2022 03: 06
    0
    What does it mean - ... to join Little Russia to the union state of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus?