Why the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to detain the Russian army on the Left Bank of Ukraine

Judging by how events are developing in the Donbass, the complete liberation of the territory of the DPR, following the LPR, may take another one and a half to two months, or even more. However, there is not the slightest doubt that the new tactics of "methodical warfare" chosen by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is guaranteed to give results. The victory of the Russian army on the Eastern Front is a matter of several months, but what will happen then?

Operational space

When ignorant people or ill-wishers reproach the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the People's Militia of the LPR and DPR for the slow pace of progress, they forget about a number of very important points.

At first, these are the features of the geographical location and historical development of this industrial region. Settlements here actually "stick together", passing one into another, separated, perhaps, by a vast industrial zone. Therefore, in military reports, the names are not of individual cities, but of urban agglomerations.

Secondly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had as much as 8 years to calmly turn the territories of Donbass controlled by Ukraine into a continuous fortified area. Having broken through one defensive line with artillery and aviation, the RF Armed Forces and NM LDNR immediately go to the next one.

Thirdly, the liberation operation is complicated by the fact that in the settlements where fierce battles are going on, there are still many civilians left, whom the Ukrainian Nazis shamelessly hide behind as a “human shield”.

Simple solutions, like bombing everything with strategic aircraft or dropping a nuclear bomb altogether, do not work here. The battle for Donbass will be exactly the same as it is now, and no other. However, the superiority of the Russian army and its allies in heavy artillery and the number of shells that they can send at the enemy is such that the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inevitable. This is a matter of just a few months.

Where do we go next?

This is the most correct question, since beyond the Donbass to the very Dnieper a bare steppe opens up, which is almost impossible to cling to. Our allied forces get access to the operational space, and behind them they will no longer have a huge shock group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, consisting of the most trained military personnel, which Kyiv has been preparing for 8 years to be compared with the ground of the DPR and LPR. Where to go next?

Cut off and force the surrender of Kharkov, the second most important city in Ukraine? Move to Zaporozhye, from where the "locust" is already exporting equipment from the aircraft manufacturing enterprises "Ivchenko-Progress" and "Motor Sich"? Throw all your strength into the release of the main shipbuilding center of the former USSR, Nikolaev, as well as Ochakov, which blocks Russian ships from entering the Black Sea from Kherson? Tend to make a powerful blow, cutting off Central Ukraine from the Black Sea, taking the largest port of Odessa and gaining access to Transnistria?

As you can see, there are a lot of directions for further movement, but the forces involved in the special operation are clearly not enough for all of them. At the same time, it will be necessary to take into account the opposition provided by Kyiv and the NATO bloc standing behind it. Let's try to simulate a few situations.

If you choose between Kharkov and the Nikolaev-Odessa direction, then obviously the latter should be a priority. Kharkov, located just a few dozen kilometers from the Russian border, will not go anywhere from us. After the fall of the grouping in the Donbass, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will eventually be forced to leave this metropolis themselves, so as not to be first in an operational environment, and then in a full-fledged “cauldron”. We will have to go to Nikolaev, because from there it is easy to shell our city of Kherson, so as not to allow them to turn into a kind of Avdiivka and Donetsk. The liberation of Ochakov and the right bank of the Dnieper-Bug estuary in the Nikolaev region is also uncontested, otherwise the port of Kherson will remain in a permanent naval blockade.

And then Nikolaev automatically pulls Odessa along with him, since then she will become Avdeevka-2. In addition, cutting off Central Ukraine from the Black Sea will deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine of even the theoretical opportunity to receive machinery, ammunition, fuel and other supplies by sea. At the same time, Kyiv will be left without the main export channel, which will finish off the miserable remnants of economics Square, which is a galvanized corpse. Taking the Odessa region under the control of the RF Armed Forces will finally solve the problem of Transnistria by creating a land corridor to this isolated exclave.

So, with the priority direction for the next strike after the liberation of Donbass, we figured it out. What's next?

Someone even offers to stop there, allowing the Square itself to “die” quietly. This could work if Russia deals only with Ukraine, but, alas, the entire collective West is behind it. They will give Kyiv money and weapons for the war with us, and while we wait once again for Nezalezhnaya to "freeze and fall apart on its own", Ukraine will train and equip a million-strong army, the core of which will be veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbass, and the war will resume, even more cruel and bloody than now.

Taking into account the very limited number of forces that the Kremlin allocated for the special operation, the most rational seems to be a further strike from the south on Western Ukraine in order to cut off its central part from the NATO countries. Having lost a common border with Poland, Romania and Moldova, Kyiv will be left without the supply of weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel, and the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be predetermined. Once in the “bank”, Nazi Ukraine will inevitably fall within six months or a year, cities will capitulate one after another, without the need to take them by storm.

The intrigues of enemies

The strategy of victory with small forces, described by us above, is logical and simple, and therefore reliable. But, alas, the enemy is also smart and cunning, therefore he will in every possible way hinder its implementation. His counter-strategy, most likely, will be to force the RF Armed Forces and the NM LDNR to bog down longer on the Left Bank and prevent them from launching a large-scale offensive in the Northern Black Sea region. Unfortunately, our opponents have everything they need for this.

first. Probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will repeat their trick of depriving the already liberated Donbass of water. As we already told Earlier, now, in order to restore the water supply to the DPR, it is necessary to regain control over Slavyansk, from where the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal originates. However, he himself is also fed with water from the Dnieper through the Dnieper-Donbass canal, which runs through the Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions. It is enough to block it by turning off the pumping stations, and the problem of water supply for Donbass, as well as the Kharkiv region, will again rise to its full height. Apparently, this will happen somewhere in the beginning of autumn. Consequently, the RF Armed Forces and NM LDNR will have to go to the Dnieper.

Second. At the suggestion of Washington, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have now received more long-range missiles for the MLRS of the American production HIMARS. Against the former ones, which have a flight range of only 70 kilometers, the new missiles are capable of flying up to 300 kilometers. This means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to fire from Kharkov not only on Luhansk and Donetsk, but also on Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov-on-Don. From Zaporozhye, the Ukrainian army will be able to cover Mariupol, Berdyansk, Kherson and our entire Crimea with missiles. The flight range of an American missile is enough to reach the Crimean bridge. Not only Sevastopol with its naval base, but also the peaceful cities of Simferopol, Yalta, Feodosia and others will be perfectly shot from Nikolaev. Above all of them, a reliable air defense / missile defense dome cannot be covered.

What conclusions can we draw? No matter how far the line of contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine moves to the West, from that side it will always fly through the already liberated territories of Ukraine. There is only one recipe here - access to the Polish border, and everything else is a catastrophe postponed for a while.

As President Putin personally acknowledged recently, Russia has not yet really begun to fight. Perhaps it's time to stop fighting with the "left foot" with such a terrible adversary as the NATO bloc, and get down to business seriously? It is necessary to allocate just enough forces to simultaneously successfully advance both on the Left Bank, and in the Black Sea region, and then in Western Ukraine, success is guaranteed until the Polish divisions stand up in Galicia, and the NATO fleet in Odessa.
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  1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 10 July 2022 15: 08
    The main message of this publication is intimidation.
    And Russia "will not start to fight for real," because it will not risk a partial mobilization.
    In the territories controlled by Ukraine, it would be possible, following the example of Chechnya, to "train and equip an army of a million people" - but the Kremlin is not capable of doing this for political reasons either.
    Under these circumstances, it is not so important where to step ...
    If, after entering the operational space, the "blitzkrieg" does not take place: it will inevitably "fly" further!
  2. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
    Pat Rick 10 July 2022 15: 43
    cutting off Central Ukraine from the Black Sea will deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine even of the theoretical possibility of obtaining equipment, ammunition, fuel and other supplies by sea.

    So what? But the Armed Forces of Ukraine now have a practical opportunity to receive everything they need through Poland and Western Ukraine. And why do we need a mined Black Sea?
  3. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 10 July 2022 16: 41
    Perhaps it's time to stop fighting with the "left foot" with such a terrible adversary as the NATO bloc, and get down to business seriously?

    ALREADY today (see marinetraffic) ships have gone, at the moment (16.40) - 7 pieces at the mouth of the Danube to Ukrainian ports. Do you doubt that there are industrial batches of Western weapons? Check it out, how? Any ship of the Black Sea Fleet will be immediately sunk! Western anti-ship missiles and artillery are in charge there. The snake is an example.
    Why was it allowed to bring long-range western artillery and anti-ship missiles to the Bessarabian part of the Odessa region, where the ONLY serviceable bridge in Mayaki leads? Many do not know that part of this route (15 km) runs through the territory of Moldova. So it goes! Moldova missed unhindered! Nobody talks about it - dear partners.
    Now weapons will come in a powerful stream from the Danube ports. Not far off is the opening of Odessa seaports. And there are NATO ships. Turkey will miss - do not hesitate. A couple of planes loaded with dollars and Erdogan himself will control the movement of the NATO fleet in the Bosphorus with flags.
    Hello Odessa, Nikolaev.
    1. sat2004 Offline sat2004
      sat2004 10 July 2022 17: 51
      So it is necessary to move the fighting along the border with Turkey so that there is no time to wave flags. Drive the Turks out of Syria, the Americans themselves will run away, they have a lot of experience, free Idlib from the Turkish presence. This will be enough, if not, then we will turn off oil, gas, electricity. We will help the Turks with inflation.
      1. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
        Vox Populi (vox populi) 11 July 2022 19: 53
        So what was the matter?
  4. ksa Offline ksa
    ksa 10 July 2022 16: 50
    The formation of volunteer battalions began for a reason.
  5. Bloshka Offline Bloshka
    Bloshka (Konstantin) 10 July 2022 18: 09
    I wonder why the decision-making centers and the mass deployment of troops on the territory of the Kyiv region are not disabled.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 10 July 2022 18: 42
    Yes, the latest Chinese warning - give up, and voluntarily join EDRO, or else ....
  7. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 10 July 2022 20: 30
    Power plants, substations, banks, railways, nodes all work in Ukraine, they don’t bomb anything. Question. Why? Not beneficial to the ruling social group, bankers, oligarchs, they have the citizenship of the whole world. Everything that is happening now was born in the 1990s, can first legally recognize that a coup d'état was committed, a criminal offense that has no statute of limitations. It is necessary to decide, whose land is Ukraine? It turns out a draw. Or it's scary for the authorities.
  8. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 11 July 2022 06: 21
    So, with the priority direction for the next strike after the liberation of Donbass, we figured it out. What's next?

    Hmm ... In this case, it is necessary to clarify - who are these "we" who "understood" the directions of all strikes?
    Sofa "General Staff" headed by its author "Field Marshal Generalissimo"?

    And then - the most interesting.
    Interesting in the sense that the situation, after the priority release of the DPR, will be completely different. And not according to the alignment on the theater of operations “in Ukraine”, but according to the geopolitical alignment: both in Europe and in the world. And proceeding already from this alignment, there will be directions of strikes from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: to Odessa or to Lvov-with-Kyiv.
  9. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 11 July 2022 07: 41
    You explain all this to Putin. My opinion is that his geopolitical genius is greatly exaggerated.
  10. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 11 July 2022 09: 20
    It is simply amazing how a man with the name "clown" can resist the powerful Russian army for so long? As some comrades said, Ukraine is at war, and Russia seems to be playing Zarnitsa. Here in Chechnya, Basayev and Maskhadov were destroyed by rockets, and everyone and sundry calmly go to Kyiv as tourists to Zelensky. And they are not afraid, because they are sure that Russia will not bomb. Why are they so sure of it?
    1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
      Pat Rick 11 July 2022 10: 16
      It is simply amazing how a man with the name "clown" can resist the powerful Russian army for so long?

      In fact, Ukraine received from the Americans a stable and powerful air defense information system. It was enough for our plane to tear off the front pillar, as the American AWACS, American drones, American satellites were already transmitting information to the US command centers about the take-off of Russian aircraft, from where they immediately appeared at the Ukrainians via automated systems. Today, this unity of NATO information capabilities and Ukrainian command centers is the basis of the combat work of Ukrainian air defense. It is reported by "The Rambler".

      We are fighting Ukrainian air defense, we are hunting for air defense systems, aircraft, UAVs. This is a complex task, and in talking about it, we should not oversimplify and profane the challenges we face. CBO is a severe test, and we must find accurate answers to all questions. This is the only way we can defeat the enemy. And this is by no means a clown in Kyiv. It is reported by "The Rambler".
  11. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 11 July 2022 13: 34
    Not only Sevastopol with its naval base will be perfectly shot from Nikolaev

    The air defense systems deployed on Tarkhankut "automatically" land everything flying to the Crimea, for the time being, from the "in-Ukrainian" Nikolaev or Odessa.

    "It's great ... to shoot through," this is if Russia has catapults and archers instead of air defense.
    Yes, author?

    By the way, the author, there is no "his (??) naval base" in Sevastopol, but only the Main Base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
  12. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 11 July 2022 13: 59
    If you choose between Kharkov and the Nikolaev-Odessa direction, then obviously the latter should be a priority. Kharkov, located just a few dozen kilometers from the Russian border, will not go anywhere from us.

    Missiles supplied to Ukrovermacht from the USA and flying 300 km, when from Kharkov to Belgorod 70 km, to Donetsk 250 km, to Kursk 190 km, and to Voronezh 280 km. etc. – in the “analytics” of the author, makes Kharkov less (!) Priority (!) for liberation from the Nazis than Odessa-Nikolaev?! Won't go anywhere?! Hmm...
  13. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 11 July 2022 15: 49
    With such an offensive by Ukraine and a straightening of the front line, it will be possible to delay the Russian army on each of the rivers west from the Dnieper up to the rivers of Poland. It already happened, apparently Ukraine is not aware that even in ancient times, when they fought with stones, the riverbed was diverted to the other side. This was done by Xerxes and Xerox. Like small children, they pull everything into their mouths and talk, but they cannot tie their shoelaces. The Germans fled from the Dnieper at such a speed that the Red Army could not catch up with them. Caught up with them on the Dniester. So these smart people thought of blowing up the bridge when half of it hadn't crossed yet. I had to finish off the Germans and Romanians, and the Bandera fled even earlier to Codri. Again they were caught up and in Iasi they finished off everyone who got caught and the Romanians became allies of the USSR, it was already scary when the Germans began to beat the Romanians. Well, Hitler found allies for himself, he had to go to Hell.
  14. ChopChop Offline ChopChop
    ChopChop 11 July 2022 21: 32
    "We didn't start fighting in earnest." Let our "leader" say this to the widows and mothers of the dead guys, children left without fathers, civilians in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions who find themselves under shelling, because this is not serious, it's all make-believe. War is always serious, they kill there.
  15. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 11 July 2022 21: 45
    The worst enemy is betrayal and he is sitting in Moscow. Without the disposal of the 5th column, there will be no victory.
  16. Kade_t Offline Kade_t
    Kade_t (Igor) 12 July 2022 14: 10
    Forces and means will still have to be allocated, delaying the special operation will inevitably lead to APU strikes on our cities by the US-supplied MLRS. We will simply be forced to do this so that the announced partial mobilization will affect the domestic political situation in Russia, and it will really affect, there will be a lot of dissatisfied people.
  17. Rustem Offline Rustem
    Rustem (Rustem) 12 July 2022 15: 18
    Or maybe it's better to wait for the second great depression in the world?!
  18. Ingvar7 Offline Ingvar7
    Ingvar7 (Ingvar Miller) 16 July 2022 13: 53
    How many visionaries in the digital space have divorced!...
  19. Roust Offline Roust
    Roust (Rouslan) 17 July 2022 01: 41
    Pessimism and melancholy ... The author, either go in for sports, or hug a girl, well, you can 100 grams, as a last resort, otherwise, after your articles, you want to get drunk, inject yourself and fall to the bottom of the well. Everything will be fine. Let's send the Nazis to Bandera. There will be no more ruins.
  20. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 19 August 2022 11: 50
    Many tough questions to the Russian leadership and Putin personally. so-called. NVO in "white gloves" and with very limited means, the absence of tough actions against Ukronazi terrorists and their Western accomplices (for example, permanent arms supplies) - will not lead to good ...