Is the Kaliningrad region ready for an economic blockade by the European Union


Unofficial economic The blockade, in which Lithuania took the Kaliningrad region, forces Russia to look for the most effective answers. The idea to bring in troops and forcefully break through the land transport corridor to the exclave through Suvalkia, alas, does not stand up to criticism. So far, we have no grounds for invading a country that is a member of the NATO bloc. Then what is left?


Why the creation of the Suwalki corridor with a swift throw from the territory of the allied Belarus is impossible today, wesorted out previously. Firstly, there is nothing trite, since almost all Russian ground forces are currently involved in the course of a special military operation in Ukraine. Secondly, there are no legal grounds, because Lithuania did not take Kaliningrad into a full-fledged blockade, but “only” complied with the sanctions imposed by senior comrades from the European Union. No one forbids us air and sea communication through neutral skies and waters, but this makes it a little easier.

Before the introduction of restrictions by Vilnius, about 50% of all cargo was delivered to the Russian exclave by rail and road, 40% by sea, and the remaining 10% by air. The ban now includes the transit through Lithuania of ferrous metal products, including steel, construction materials, jet fuel and fuel additives, goods for use in the aerospace industry, technological installations for gas liquefaction, dishes, cosmetics, perfumes, household appliances. equipment, sound recording equipment, musical instruments, cigars, truffles and their products, as well as thoroughbred horses. There are rumors that soon Vilnius may even cut off Russian gas supplies through its territory. It seems that our "Western partners" want the Europeanized inhabitants of the Kaliningrad region to slide into lack of culture, and then into the Stone Age.

One can only sympathize with our compatriots, as this is for a long time. There is no complete blockade of the exclave yet, but all the disadvantages of its territorial isolation will now manifest itself to the fullest. Since you don’t get much dung by air flying around half of the Baltic, only sea communication remains real. And here the shortage of ships, logistical nuances, as well as the inevitable increase in transportation tariffs will affect, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of everything and everything in the Kaliningrad region. It cannot be said that the Russian leadership did not take into account such a scenario and did nothing, on the contrary.

Assuming the possibility of cutting off gas supplies through the Minsk-Vilnius-Kaunas-Kaliningrad gas pipeline, Gazprom acquired the Marshal Vasilevsky floating regasification unit (FSRU) specifically to provide Kaliningrad with blue fuel from an alternative source in the form of LNG. The capacity of the terminal, built in South Korea at the Hyundai Heavy Industries shipyard, supplies 2,7 billion cubic meters per year. In 2019, Gazprom leased the floating terminal to the Austrian OMV, since there was no urgent need for it, but on January 27, 2022, it returned it back to the exclave. Apparently, in the leadership of the state corporation, they guessed something that would happen soon.

We tried to resolve issues in advance with the expansion of the transport capabilities of the Kaliningrad region. Two age-old ferries "Ambal" and "Baltiysk" have long been operating on the line. In 2018, the Nevsky Shipyard (Nevsky Shipyard) received a contract for the construction of two modern LNG ferries, but transferred it to a subcontractor, the Turkish shipyard Kyzey Star Shipyard in Tuzla (Istanbul), which caused a storm of emotions at the time. Meanwhile, the first of the two vessels, the Marshal Rokossovsky CNF19M LNG car-railway ferry, arrived at the customer in January 2022 to operate on the Ust-Luga-Baltiysk line. The ferry is 200 meters long and can run on both LNG and low sulfur diesel fuel. The ice class allows it to work calmly on the Baltic Sea even in winter.

The second railway ferry of a similar project, General Chernyakhovsky, is to be handed over to the customer in the third quarter of 2022. The concept and technical documentation of the vessel in the construction of the CNF19M project were developed by the Marine Engineering Bureau. As you can see, the Turks managed the construction in just 4 years, remaining within the framework of a very modest budget by Russian standards. This is to the question of whether it is possible to order the construction of ships abroad and how many would be busy with such ferries in our country.

But back to the problems of the Russian exclave in the Baltic. Now its only real connection with the mainland will be sea communication. Everything will have to be transported by sea, and in one direction the ships will go heavily loaded, and back - almost always empty. This will inevitably lead to a significant increase in costs, and hence the cost of goods and services for the residents of the Kaliningrad region and its businesses. Undoubtedly, the collective West is counting on growing discontent among the population of this strategically important region. Now everyone is on a patriotic upsurge, but at marathon distances, fatigue and irritation will inevitably begin to accumulate. What to do?

It is necessary to strike back at Lithuania right now, if not by military means, then by economic means. Are they threatening to shut off the gas to Kaliningrad? Let's be the first to shut off gas to Lithuania by switching the exclave to LNG. If anything, then it will be possible to lay a layer along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, supplying an isolated area from Nord Stream 2. Let there be at least some benefit from this stillborn geopolitical project. Does Vilnius restrict the transit of Russian goods through its territory? We will close for Lithuania the export of any of its goods to the Russian market and, if the "Father" agrees, to the Belarusian market. Did the Baltic States want to disconnect from the single BRELL energy ring? Let's speed up the process by disconnecting the "three sisters" from our side.

The sooner the Europeans feel the brunt of the economic burden of the proxy war with Russia, the sooner this all has a chance to end.
29 comments
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 23 June 2022 16: 56
    +1
    There are rumors that soon Vilnius may even cut off Russian gas supplies through its territory. It seems that our "Western partners" want the Europeanized inhabitants of the Kaliningrad region to slide into lack of culture, and then into the Stone Age.

    And what prevented Russia from stretching a branch to Kaliningrad from Nord Stream?
    Many countries, including Greece and the countries of Oceania, use ferry crossings. until recently they said that sea transport is the cheapest in the world? Something has changed?
    As for the economic embargo on Lithuania, Russia has all the leverage. Only willpower is missing, because some people can lose cash flows, and this is unacceptable - the loot decides everything! Here in the USSR they could impose an embargo. In the USA they can. But in modern Russia - I don’t know ...
    1. lance is gone Offline lance is gone
      lance is gone (lance) 23 June 2022 19: 12
      +3
      all the fault of the liberal policy of the Russian Federation. responses should be immediate and complete.
  2. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 19: 55
    0
    Unofficial economic blockade in which Lithuania took the Kaliningrad region

    So this is a transport blockade from Lithuania, and not an economic one. What is the economy like in Lithuania?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 June 2022 08: 04
      0
      Vitya, we are talking about the economy of Kaliningrad.
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 25 June 2022 08: 45
        0
        Then, dear, it is necessary to state in an appropriate way, and not in the way you have stated.
  3. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 19: 57
    0
    And here the shortage of courts will affect

    Where is the deficit? Vessels are chartered and free transport tonnage in the world - more than...
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 June 2022 07: 59
      0
      What about secondary sanctions?
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 25 June 2022 08: 46
        0
        Yes, even tertiary ones. What, freight cars from Kaliningrad "traveled" empty?
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 23 June 2022 19: 57
    +1
    The blockade of the Kaliningrad province forces the delivery of goods in a roundabout way, and this increases the cost of everything and everything. The state budget will have to compensate for the rise in prices, otherwise big troubles may arise.
  5. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 20: 06
    +2
    Everything will have to be transported by sea, and in one direction the ships will go heavily loaded, and back - almost always empty

    There are more than 6 industrial enterprises in the Kaliningrad region, including:
    ...OJSC "Kaliningrad Carriage Works" produces self-unloading dump cars, electric forklifts, containers for the transportation of bulk and lumpy cargo;
    ...shipbuilding plant "Yantar" was founded in 1945 after the end of World War II on the basis of the German shipyard "Schihau". For 75 years of its history, the Yantar plant... ...is engaged in the manufacture of metal structures for various purposes from steel and light alloys, metalworking and the manufacture of individual products in the field of mechanical engineering.
    Etc.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 June 2022 08: 04
      +1
      So there, in general, all the logistics will have to be rebuilt. And ships of different classes to take it all out.
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 25 June 2022 08: 46
        0
        So what? Can't be rebuilt?
  6. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 23 June 2022 20: 22
    0
    Unfortunately, right now it will not be possible to convert KO to LNG, since the construction of the UGS facility, which began in 2013 but has not been brought to the design capacity, has not been completed. As for the branch to the KO from SP-2, the project does not provide for this. There must be a special tee with a continuation and a plug at a shallow depth. The calculation was that a nuclear power plant would be launched in the region and the need for gas would be small
  7. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 20: 23
    0
    Undoubtedly, the collective West is counting on the growth of discontent among the population of this strategically important region. Now everyone is on a patriotic upsurge, but at marathon distances, fatigue and irritation will inevitably begin to accumulate

    And what, will the citizens of the "collective European west" have a growing joy, positive mood and general festive euphoria at a marathon distance without gas, without bread and without agricultural fertilizers?
    Or, yes, will discontent grow?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 June 2022 08: 02
      0
      And what, will the citizens of the "collective European west" have a growing joy, positive mood and general festive euphoria at a marathon distance without gas, without bread and without agricultural fertilizers?

      They will not have euphoria. But how will this make it easier for Kaliningraders?
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 25 June 2022 08: 47
        0
        And who is easy now? And why - in your logic - the consequences threaten only us?
  8. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 20: 27
    0
    ...because almost all Russian ground forces are currently engaged in a special military operation in Ukraine.

    Hmm ... That is, "almost the entire Russian land army is right now in Ukraine"!?
    Did the author tell Shoigu and the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces this news?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 June 2022 08: 00
      0
      Hmm ... That is, "almost the entire Russian land army is right now in Ukraine"!?
      Did the author tell Shoigu and the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces this news?

      Exactly. They are aware, and therefore do not threaten Lithuania with occupation.
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 25 June 2022 08: 50
        0
        Why occupy Lithuania? This is first...
        Secondly, justify with numbers the presence of almost the entire Russian land army now "in Ukraine".
        If you are, so to speak, "in the know" ...
  9. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 20: 48
    +1
    It seems that our "Western partners" want the Europeanized inhabitants of the Kaliningrad region to slide into lack of culture, and then into the Stone Age.

    Hmm ... And "Europeanized residents of the Kaliningrad region" - what is it and how? Or does the author have such a "cultural" feeling that all the other inhabitants of the European part of Russia are still not "Europeanized"!?
  10. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 23 June 2022 20: 55
    0
    The idea to bring in troops and forcefully break through the land transport corridor to the exclave through Suvalkia, alas, does not stand up to criticism.

    Hmm ... What kind of "corridor suvalkia" ?! Suwalki is a city in Poland, not in Lithuania.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 June 2022 08: 01
      0
      Learn the materiel before scribbling hundreds of comments. Suvalkia is a region on the border between Poland and Lithuania.
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 25 June 2022 08: 53
        0
        First you need to repeat the school geography course. Suwalki is a Polish city.
        Will you "beat the corridor" in Poland?
        In addition, the term about this "corridor" was invented by the Americans. And they have big problems with European geography ...
  11. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 23 June 2022 21: 02
    +5
    Completely close trade with Lithuania, close the border, break the diplomatic mission. relations, cancel the recognition of independence, complete isolation from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus and no military actions against Lithuania. Now is the time for hostilities against Lithuania - the Baltics have not come. Build all logistics by aviation and sea transport. An example is how Kamchatka lives for many, many years. Everything has its time.
  12. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 23 June 2022 21: 04
    +1
    I fully support the author
  13. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 24 June 2022 09: 02
    +1
    Tell the truth - completely unprepared. And such reasoning is only to cover up the Kremlin's inaction, which limits the response to provocations, even in fact on the verge of declaring war, only demagogy.
  14. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 24 June 2022 16: 55
    -4
    The most important thing is to raise a panic. There are waves on the sea. But you can make it so that Lithuania, as it were, but at the same time, as if it were not there, and it all depends on the tonnage of the bribe. It is impossible to bribe only the dead, but the living still how. After all, they bribed the army and the KGB of the USSR, which means everyone is bribed.
  15. all that is needed is to recapture the Memelsky district and the Suvalkovsky corridor from the litgapls, and NATO will not dare to blather. A propos! before World War II, Vilnius was called Vilna and was part of Belarus, so Papa Lou could have profited, of course, for helping to exterminate the snub-nosed ones!
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 25 June 2022 10: 34
      -1
      Everything will be completely different. Lithuania will become part of the Belarusian Federation. In addition, this federation will include two regions b. Ukraine - Volyn and Rivne. And also a piece b. Poland. There will be 4 state languages ​​- Russian, Ukrainian, Belarusian and Lithuanian.
      It will be a wonderful country. Especially against the background of b. Ukraine and b. Poland.