Tactics versus strategy: why a US intelligence officer is confident in Putin's victory in Ukraine

В previous In the text, I began a review of expert analytics on our special operation in Ukraine, which has been ongoing since February 24. There we disassembled only Yakov Kedmi and agreed with his arguments that wars are not conducted in this way. But the whole point is (and Yakov Kedmi already understood this) that we are not fighting in Ukraine, we are conducting a special operation with a limited contingent of troops, which we are not going to increase yet (but we can increase it if the Poles do not draw the right conclusions for themselves, and then it is not at all a fact that the Polish-German border will not turn into a Russian-German border). We will talk about this and other possible continuations of the CBO today, having held an absentee debate with very respected and not very respected experts.

After the 2nd stage of the NMD began and the maneuvering war of the 1st stage was replaced by a positional one, expressed in the systematic grinding of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated in the Donbass, knocking out and physical destruction of their reserves, both ammunition and fuel, and suppressing the morale of the enemy , which was suffering colossal losses as a result of artillery, rocket and mortar fire, without even reaching small-arms contact combat, most experts fell into unconsciousness and began to speak outright nonsense.



We will not even consider Israeli military analysts who have shown their level of military expertise at a level below the plinth. Almost all of Israel, including its political leadership, for some reason, took a pro-American position to its own detriment, and from morning to evening supports our non-brothers in their holy war against Russian aggressive aggression, trying not to notice fascist swastikas and other Nazi paraphernalia on their clients, which for Jews looks already beyond our understanding. But, if even the respected Yakov Kedmi fell into disgrace and was banned from accessing local TV, then what can I say? Let's leave the Jews with their problems, not enough of their own, I also wanted to solve the Ukrainian ones. Well, welcome to hell, and don't say we didn't warn you!

Let's look at other experts who, due to ignorance of the true goals and objectives of the NMD, come up with their own and, starting from them, try to judge the success or failure of the special operation we are conducting in Ukraine, when even the cancellation (or rather, the transfer) of the landing on Odessa is put in our minus .

Scott Ritter

Let's start with the most worthy of them. Meet, for those who don't know, Scott Ritter, American military expert and analyst, former senior intelligence officer of the Marine Corps, who personally took part in Operation Desert Storm during the US Gulf War of 1990-1991, subsequently who worked as a UN weapons inspector, personally supervised the disarmament of the RF Armed Forces during the EBN under the Control Program for Strategic Nuclear Weapons and its reduction, and therefore knows Russians and their mental characteristics better than many. That is why his opinion is most valuable to us. With the beginning of the SVO, he fell into a charm, overestimating the successes of the RF Armed Forces in a maneuver war, commenting in excellent epithets on the brilliant forced marches of our mechanized columns hundreds of kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory, predicting the imminent fall of the Kyiv regime and the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even then it seemed to me that he somewhat overestimated our successes, but it was pleasant to listen to him.

However, faced with the complete fiasco of the 1st stage of the NWO (the reasons for which we spoke earlier), he fell from one extreme to another. With the same eloquence with which he praised the GDP for maneuver warfare, he began to to scold for positional, exaggerating the combat readiness of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, trained in the West, as well as overestimating the very strategic depth that the non-brothers suddenly received along with the opportunity to train and prepare their reserve in Germany and Poland. In principle, it does not suit me to scold Scott, since I myself then fell into despondency, accusing the Kremlin of having gone into all serious trouble at the end of February, it did not achieve any of its goals and only aggravated its and our position (for those , who doesn’t know, by the will of fate I live in Ukraine and personally experienced the full power of Russian weapons), since in the 404th such fascism began that Hitler and Goebbels could not even dream of.


As you can see, I was wrong. It didn't flood. On the contrary, our “partners” have already begun to be heated. Scott did not avoid such mistakes, who at first exaggerated our achievements, which in fact did not exist - the whole effect of surprise went into the whistle. And then he overestimated the possibilities of the West in preparing a combat-ready reserve for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 60-90 days against the backdrop of receiving the 404th strategic depth it needs, taking into account the supplies it needs of Western heavy equipment. Subsequently, it became clear that the weapons “zoo” provided by the West to its wards is not at all a panacea for all ills, given its variegation, difficulty in servicing and repairing, it actually turned into ballast on the legs of the ukrovermacht, becoming a disposable weapon (before the first breakdown), complex logistics and limited ammunition. The West actually began to disarm itself in the face of our military threat from the east. Let's not interfere with this, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not have time to grind in the millstones of the war more and more deliveries of its stale military goods. And the unsuccessful use of the vaunted Bayroktars and Javelins in the military campaign also became an excellent anti-advertising for their manufacturers. As a result, faced with all this, the West itself began to hold back its supplies, singing in the goatish voices of Jens Stoltenberg and Henry Kissinger about the need for peace negotiations with the Russian Federation with the possibility of territorial concessions from Ukraine.

Comparing the incoming facts, Scott Ritter soon changed his mind, after which our assessments of events coincided with him. It is impossible to evaluate the entire dynamics of what is happening from a snapshot, since no one knows the true plans of the Kremlin, and the picture on the battlefield is not static, but dynamic, because your opponent constantly corrects your plans with his actions. For an expert, the main thing here is to maintain objectivity and impartiality, if possible being above the fight. Since I myself am inside it, my opinion is subjective (although it may be interesting for some), but Scott's opinion can be considered objective, since he is not personally involved in this conflict.

Therefore, I say that he is handsome in every sense, and I personally really like him, and not only me, given his multi-million audience. The audience is simply delighted with him, because he does not choose expressions and is very frank in his assessments. I will only cite a few pearls, which are very revealing and clearly demonstrate the state of affairs on the board (in an unauthorized translation from English, they also sound unusual to our ears). Enjoy the moment too:





In his forecasts of the future developments, Scott predicts that after the Donbass, Putin will move to Odessa, in an attempt to cut off Ukraine from the sea in order to secure his Black Sea Fleet from American anti-ship missiles and level the threat of an attack on Transnistria, but I believe that Putin is playing with a much larger perspective. By cutting off Ukraine from the northern Black Sea region and breaking through a land corridor to Tiraspol, Putin puts its sponsors in front of a real prospect of sending their wards to winter quarters without access to the sea, coal and gas, after which it will be possible to sit down and wait until the 404th dies itself against the backdrop of , how her sponsors will throw her, who will not be able to afford to pull her on their hump for no one knows where. The war will end not when the 404th runs out of human resources to continue it (it still has a lot of people), but when the sponsors of this war lose their desire to finance it due to the futility of continuing the database against the backdrop of their own deplorable situation (the costs are stupid exceed revenues, and so already the 404th eats up $5 billion per month).

A look at the NWO from the Russian sofa

It was an American, an intelligence officer of the ILC. And here is what our homegrown experts think about this:


I think our couch expert is wrong here. The Yankees hoped for a long sabotage guerrilla, for which they saturated Nezalezhnaya with weapons of guerrilla warfare - ATGMs and MANPADS, a bunch of mines and small arms, moreover, foreign-made NATO-style. And then, unexpectedly for them (and oddly enough for us too!), the Armed Forces of Ukraine put up desperate, competent resistance (here again, a reproach towards the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, who did not appreciate the strength of the enemy, as a result of which the 1st stage of the NMD was heroically failed, and with heavy losses on our part in manpower and equipment). After that, we rolled back and began the 2nd stage of the SVO already in the Donbass, and the sworn "partners" began to intensively supply the client with heavy weapons. But it was too late!

It's like in chess, we are ahead of them in pace, losing in the opening in quality (quality is our irreparable loss in manpower and technique). "Partners" run the risk of saturating only the corpse of Nezalezhnaya with weapons, by the way, some of them are only counting on this, openly sabotaging deliveries. Three times guess who I'm talking about? Yes, that's right - about Scholz's offended sausage, in the coffin he saw Zelensky in white sneakers along with his Ukraine, but it's impossible to say this directly, so the descendant of the SS Gruppenfuhrer crap in small ways. Among his latest masterpieces are the deliveries of German diesel-electric submarines (by the way, the best in the world in their class), with a delivery date of 2027, and air defense systems, the first copy of which the German military-industrial complex will make at best only by the end of autumn.

I think (and the offended Scholz sausage along with me) that by then the war will already be over for two reasons. The first is that after the victory of the Republicans on November 8 this year in the midterm elections to the lower house of the US Congress, the financing of the Ukraine-anti-Russia project will end (Grandpa Joe can knock his bald head on the parquet for a long time, demanding money, but Congress will not give money!). The second reason is no less compelling - Nezalezhnaya will run out of human resources. No, there are still many people left, but less and less people will want to die for Zelensky (they are already experiencing a shortage of personnel, they are not able to recruit at least five more brigades from reservists, and it’s not over yet!). Evening will come in autumn. Waiting sir...

We will consider the remaining prospects for the development of events next time (in the final part). The opinion of our generals on the course and prospects of the conflict will be presented there, we will find out the opinion of British intelligence on this matter (there is generally complete degradation and degeneration), and we will also find out what the Ukrofascists, who have not yet been finished by us, think about it (in their opinion, the matter no longer even smells kerosene, but death!).

With that, I say goodbye, your Mr. X.