Tactics versus strategy: why a US intelligence officer is confident in Putin's victory in Ukraine


В previous In the text, I began a review of expert analytics on our special operation in Ukraine, which has been ongoing since February 24. There we disassembled only Yakov Kedmi and agreed with his arguments that wars are not conducted in this way. But the whole point is (and Yakov Kedmi already understood this) that we are not fighting in Ukraine, we are conducting a special operation with a limited contingent of troops, which we are not going to increase yet (but we can increase it if the Poles do not draw the right conclusions for themselves, and then it is not at all a fact that the Polish-German border will not turn into a Russian-German border). We will talk about this and other possible continuations of the CBO today, having held an absentee debate with very respected and not very respected experts.


After the 2nd stage of the NMD began and the maneuvering war of the 1st stage was replaced by a positional one, expressed in the systematic grinding of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated in the Donbass, knocking out and physical destruction of their reserves, both ammunition and fuel, and suppressing the morale of the enemy , which was suffering colossal losses as a result of artillery, rocket and mortar fire, without even reaching small-arms contact combat, most experts fell into unconsciousness and began to speak outright nonsense.

We will not even consider Israeli military analysts who have shown their level of military expertise at a level below the plinth. Almost all of Israel, including its political leadership, for some reason, took a pro-American position to its own detriment, and from morning to evening supports our non-brothers in their holy war against Russian aggressive aggression, trying not to notice fascist swastikas and other Nazi paraphernalia on their clients, which for Jews looks already beyond our understanding. But, if even the respected Yakov Kedmi fell into disgrace and was banned from accessing local TV, then what can I say? Let's leave the Jews with their problems, not enough of their own, I also wanted to solve the Ukrainian ones. Well, welcome to hell, and don't say we didn't warn you!

Let's look at other experts who, due to ignorance of the true goals and objectives of the NMD, come up with their own and, starting from them, try to judge the success or failure of the special operation we are conducting in Ukraine, when even the cancellation (or rather, the transfer) of the landing on Odessa is put in our minus .

Scott Ritter


Let's start with the most worthy of them. Meet, for those who don't know, Scott Ritter, American military expert and analyst, former senior intelligence officer of the Marine Corps, who personally took part in Operation Desert Storm during the US Gulf War of 1990-1991, subsequently who worked as a UN weapons inspector, personally supervised the disarmament of the RF Armed Forces during the EBN under the Control Program for Strategic Nuclear Weapons and its reduction, and therefore knows Russians and their mental characteristics better than many. That is why his opinion is most valuable to us. With the beginning of the SVO, he fell into a charm, overestimating the successes of the RF Armed Forces in a maneuver war, commenting in excellent epithets on the brilliant forced marches of our mechanized columns hundreds of kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory, predicting the imminent fall of the Kyiv regime and the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even then it seemed to me that he somewhat overestimated our successes, but it was pleasant to listen to him.

However, faced with the complete fiasco of the 1st stage of the NWO (the reasons for which we spoke earlier), he fell from one extreme to another. With the same eloquence with which he praised the GDP for maneuver warfare, he began to to scold for positional, exaggerating the combat readiness of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, trained in the West, as well as overestimating the very strategic depth that the non-brothers suddenly received along with the opportunity to train and prepare their reserve in Germany and Poland. In principle, it does not suit me to scold Scott, since I myself then fell into despondency, accusing the Kremlin of having gone into all serious trouble at the end of February, it did not achieve any of its goals and only aggravated its and our position (for those , who doesn’t know, by the will of fate I live in Ukraine and personally experienced the full power of Russian weapons), since in the 404th such fascism began that Hitler and Goebbels could not even dream of.

Well, he [Putin] does not give a damn about us, but could he think about himself?! Real fascism began here, I can say this with full responsibility, I have something to compare with, since February 24, hell has been going on here, Hitler smokes bamboo with envy. And for the Russian Federation, the nightmare is just beginning - NATO is already at its gates, the Finns and Swedes on the one hand, the Poles and Romanians on the other. Is this what Putin wanted when he started his own SVO? I'm sure not! The military budget of the 404th exceeded the annual military budget of the Russian Federation in 3 months. The American and European curators of the Square have already unfastened 53 yards of greenery from their bounty, not counting Lend-Lease. This is epic trash! For the Russian Federation, fighting NATO is like scooping water out of a leaky boat with a ladle in the middle of the Volga. Will flood!

As you can see, I was wrong. It didn't flood. On the contrary, our “partners” have already begun to be heated. Scott did not avoid such mistakes, who at first exaggerated our achievements, which in fact did not exist - the whole effect of surprise went into the whistle. And then he overestimated the possibilities of the West in preparing a combat-ready reserve for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 60-90 days against the backdrop of receiving the 404th strategic depth it needs, taking into account the supplies it needs of Western heavy equipment. Subsequently, it became clear that the weapons “zoo” provided by the West to its wards is not at all a panacea for all ills, given its variegation, difficulty in servicing and repairing, it actually turned into ballast on the legs of the ukrovermacht, becoming a disposable weapon (before the first breakdown), complex logistics and limited ammunition. The West actually began to disarm itself in the face of our military threat from the east. Let's not interfere with this, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not have time to grind in the millstones of the war more and more deliveries of its stale military goods. And the unsuccessful use of the vaunted Bayroktars and Javelins in the military campaign also became an excellent anti-advertising for their manufacturers. As a result, faced with all this, the West itself began to hold back its supplies, singing in the goatish voices of Jens Stoltenberg and Henry Kissinger about the need for peace negotiations with the Russian Federation with the possibility of territorial concessions from Ukraine.

Comparing the incoming facts, Scott Ritter soon changed his mind, after which our assessments of events coincided with him. It is impossible to evaluate the entire dynamics of what is happening from a snapshot, since no one knows the true plans of the Kremlin, and the picture on the battlefield is not static, but dynamic, because your opponent constantly corrects your plans with his actions. For an expert, the main thing here is to maintain objectivity and impartiality, if possible being above the fight. Since I myself am inside it, my opinion is subjective (although it may be interesting for some), but Scott's opinion can be considered objective, since he is not personally involved in this conflict.

Therefore, I say that he is handsome in every sense, and I personally really like him, and not only me, given his multi-million audience. The audience is simply delighted with him, because he does not choose expressions and is very frank in his assessments. I will only cite a few pearls, which are very revealing and clearly demonstrate the state of affairs on the board (in an unauthorized translation from English, they also sound unusual to our ears). Enjoy the moment too:

We are already seeing President Zelenskiy say he may have to agree to a transfer of territory to Russia in order to achieve peace. But Russia is not in the mood to negotiate. Russia does not want to talk to him. Russia wants unconditional surrender. Only Russia will dictate the terms here, because Zelensky has nothing to put on the table, and Russia has already laid down too much of the lives of its soldiers to stop there.

I'm sorry this dog doesn't hunt anymore. You won't get the right to vote. And I'm not saying this. This is what the Russians say. They just said that we don't care what Ukraine wants. The only thing that matters is what we want. There will be no settlement through negotiations, because Ukraine no longer has the right to vote [who did not understand, the time for negotiations has passed, Ukraine had its last chance in March].

The Russians are playing from a play that no one has read. We don't have access. We don't know what they are thinking. But it must be admitted that they are very skillful in beating Ukrainian heavyweights [at the same time, Putin is not going to increase the already existing grouping of the RF Armed Forces, he will do this only if, God forbid, external forces intervene in the matter].

[About Putin's health and his political weight]. The other day I tried to get through to Putin's doctor, but he did not answer my call. I'm kidding. I do not have the phone number of Putin's doctor, just as no one who tries to judge his health has it. Putin has been dying of some kind of disease [as his detractors say] for 20 years. Instead of focusing on his health, they would do better to focus on his competence as a political leader, because at the moment he is the only adult in the room when it comes to global politics. He has been president for five US presidential administrations, and he will be president for one, two, or three more of them. He has outlived every American president he has faced, and he has defeated every one of them. And this only says that none of them could get his phone number. That's why I say that he is the smartest person in this room. He is the people, go back and watch yours. [I did not really understand the last phrase, but you can catch the general meaning].

In his forecasts of the future developments, Scott predicts that after the Donbass, Putin will move to Odessa, in an attempt to cut off Ukraine from the sea in order to secure his Black Sea Fleet from American anti-ship missiles and level the threat of an attack on Transnistria, but I believe that Putin is playing with a much larger perspective. By cutting off Ukraine from the northern Black Sea region and breaking through a land corridor to Tiraspol, Putin puts its sponsors in front of a real prospect of sending their wards to winter quarters without access to the sea, coal and gas, after which it will be possible to sit down and wait until the 404th dies itself against the backdrop of , how her sponsors will throw her, who will not be able to afford to pull her on their hump for no one knows where. The war will end not when the 404th runs out of human resources to continue it (it still has a lot of people), but when the sponsors of this war lose their desire to finance it due to the futility of continuing the database against the backdrop of their own deplorable situation (the costs are stupid exceed revenues, and so already the 404th eats up $5 billion per month).

A look at the NWO from the Russian sofa


It was an American, an intelligence officer of the ILC. And here is what our homegrown experts think about this:

In my mind, the US plan was somewhat different, but it still failed. The United States hoped for a quick drain of the Ruin so that Russia would contain all this herd of Natsiks, and they would spoil it. And the world community, meanwhile, would stigmatize the "aggressor" with shame and sanctions.

But in view of the fact that the Russian MPD has decided to cut Ruin's tail piece by piece, the world community itself is forced to support Ruin. Russia, meanwhile, disposes of the Nazis, and only then takes control of the territory.
To be honest, before the start of the NWO, I did not see a solution to the problem of the Natsiks in Ukraine. Now I see that there is a solution, and it is being methodically implemented.

And winter is ahead.

I think our couch expert is wrong here. The Yankees hoped for a long sabotage guerrilla, for which they saturated Nezalezhnaya with weapons of guerrilla warfare - ATGMs and MANPADS, a bunch of mines and small arms, moreover, foreign-made NATO-style. And then, unexpectedly for them (and oddly enough for us too!), the Armed Forces of Ukraine put up desperate, competent resistance (here again, a reproach towards the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, who did not appreciate the strength of the enemy, as a result of which the 1st stage of the NMD was heroically failed, and with heavy losses on our part in manpower and equipment). After that, we rolled back and began the 2nd stage of the SVO already in the Donbass, and the sworn "partners" began to intensively supply the client with heavy weapons. But it was too late!

It's like in chess, we are ahead of them in pace, losing in the opening in quality (quality is our irreparable loss in manpower and technique). "Partners" run the risk of saturating only the corpse of Nezalezhnaya with weapons, by the way, some of them are only counting on this, openly sabotaging deliveries. Three times guess who I'm talking about? Yes, that's right - about Scholz's offended sausage, in the coffin he saw Zelensky in white sneakers along with his Ukraine, but it's impossible to say this directly, so the descendant of the SS Gruppenfuhrer crap in small ways. Among his latest masterpieces are the deliveries of German diesel-electric submarines (by the way, the best in the world in their class), with a delivery date of 2027, and air defense systems, the first copy of which the German military-industrial complex will make at best only by the end of autumn.

I think (and the offended Scholz sausage along with me) that by then the war will already be over for two reasons. The first is that after the victory of the Republicans on November 8 this year in the midterm elections to the lower house of the US Congress, the financing of the Ukraine-anti-Russia project will end (Grandpa Joe can knock his bald head on the parquet for a long time, demanding money, but Congress will not give money!). The second reason is no less compelling - Nezalezhnaya will run out of human resources. No, there are still many people left, but less and less people will want to die for Zelensky (they are already experiencing a shortage of personnel, they are not able to recruit at least five more brigades from reservists, and it’s not over yet!). Evening will come in autumn. Waiting sir...

We will consider the remaining prospects for the development of events next time (in the final part). The opinion of our generals on the course and prospects of the conflict will be presented there, we will find out the opinion of British intelligence on this matter (there is generally complete degradation and degeneration), and we will also find out what the Ukrofascists, who have not yet been finished by us, think about it (in their opinion, the matter no longer even smells kerosene, but death!).

With that, I say goodbye, your Mr. X.
13 comments
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  1. GIS Offline GIS
    GIS (Ildus) 20 June 2022 19: 19
    +1
    fine. write more.

    The Russians are playing from a play that no one has read. We don't have access.

    - liked it very much...
    to all the experts from the sofas: yes, none of you read "this play" in the original source, and the "original source" itself will not tell any of you / us. - he is a scout. and plays well.
    everything that will be said about the GDP and "its gang of oligarchs" - I consider it empty nonsense from envy.
    I will repeat all the objections for the hundredth time: imagine yourself in his place and draw a plan for the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the hole into which we flew in the 2000s.
    ps only then do not forget to tell us your anti-crisis development plan for our country. suddenly something good
    1. Alex777 Offline Alex777
      Alex777 (Alexander) 22 June 2022 11: 48
      +1
      I can add one thing to what the author has stated: after cutting off Odessa (it is not necessary to storm it, PMSM) and further access to Transnistria, we will have to go to the North, cutting off supply routes from the West. After the capture of Vinnitsa and Zhytomyr regions, this war will end. And then negotiations will begin on the unconditional surrender and denazification of the regime in the UG.
  2. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 20 June 2022 21: 12
    -9
    Analnytika always writes what the authorities want to hear from analnytika. I often heard the conversations of those who fought during the Great Patriotic War, as well as the Second World War. It was surprising that on all fronts there was one saying of the Information Bureau, reports that were called - the murdered German corporal testified and told. For one front it was with the neighbors, for another front it was with the other neighbors. Everyone was talking about Zhukov, from infantry to tankers - the butcher arrived. The soldiers knew when he should arrive. It was surprising, but they knew about everything at the fronts. So it was with the king, so it was without the king. Mashka for a red star. And Ivan for this attack in s ... ku. Awards from Zhukov for the battle near Moscow.
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  4. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 20 June 2022 23: 58
    -5
    Mr. H. Always wear a mask, your fate!
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 21 June 2022 06: 49
    -2
    - I don’t even want to discuss everything else; but who will explain to me "unreasonable" - what does it mean to "grind" !!!???

    The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not have time to grind in the millstones of war more and more deliveries of its stale military goods.

    - How to "grind" and how to "grind" and with what score to "grind" ???
    - When troops storm very heavily fortified positions of the enemy (and the fact that they are very strongly fortified is our media themselves, and not only the media - they constantly talk about this) - then the most minimal losses of the attackers are "one to three", i.e. e. attackers die three times more !!! - So, what is the "grinding" here ??? - And, judging by the fact that coffins often began to come to us in Western Siberia - there is nothing good in this "grinding" when attacking the fortified positions of the enemy in the forehead - not at all !!! - It is necessary to grind the fortified positions of the enemy with the forces of the Aerospace Forces and bombs BETAB-500 M-62; as well as - "Caliber" and "Iskander" - and after that - only after a powerful artillery strike and strikes by MLRS on the remaining targets (which will be revealed by UAV reconnaissance and "satellite illumination" data) - only then launch our motorized infantry (armored personnel carriers , infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, etc.)! - Only in this way - and not otherwise!
    - Well, what kind of "grinding tactics" - our "commanders" and our "top leadership" have chosen - for all this they will be asked from them only in the next world - you can’t get away from this anywhere !!!

    Each of us will answer for his own - we will have to answer
    1. Vlad Petrov Offline Vlad Petrov
      Vlad Petrov (Vladimir) 21 June 2022 15: 58
      0
      During the "Desert Storm" the United States fired only 60 thousand artillery shells - the forces of the Russian Federation bring down 50 thousand at the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day.

      Scott Ritter
  6. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 21 June 2022 14: 19
    +1
    I read articles, analyze ... and that's what's amazing! You may not understand me, but I will tell it like it is: everyone is right. And everyone is wrong. Simultaneously. Like this. It happens. When there are many unknowns and there are no clear guidelines. The essence of the confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation is hidden from us in the routine of events. Nevertheless, it is simple: who will have the lion's share? And this confrontation is not momentary! It is for centuries! Therefore, the bloody dances on the Ruin will be long. Former partners do not have enough gas? Wheat? Is fuel going up? These are stories for the faint of heart. The bourgeoisie wanted to spit on the aspirations of its serfs ... they will find it. They will take it from others and take it for themselves. The world is big... And at stake: whose power will be? There is a big game going on. And this is just the beginning.
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 23 June 2022 07: 42
      +1
      and not even the beginning - this has been going on since the 1920s -30s, the years of the USSR showed a different model of society, and then the rest of the world shuddered. after all, this is the loss of colonies, slaves and cheap labor for capital production. exactly the USSR gave impetus to both trade unions in capitalist countries and "Swedish socialism" (which will soon stretch its legs) and liberation movements in the colonies of "developed" countries ... so this is not the beginning .... but not the end
  7. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 21 June 2022 19: 34
    0
    But the whole point is (and Yakov Kedmi already understood this) that we are not fighting in Ukraine, we are conducting a special operation with a limited contingent of troops, which we are not going to increase yet (but we can increase it if the Poles do not draw the right conclusions for themselves, and then it’s not at all a fact that the Polish-German border will not turn into a Russian-German).

    How bold, so controversial statement (in general and in particular) ... winked
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 23 June 2022 07: 43
      0
      but I don't like it. maybe this will happen and the Poles themselves will ask "polite people" to help them observe the rights of citizens to self-determination)))
  8. Artie Offline Artie
    Artie (Artyom Korolev) 1 July 2022 01: 37
    0
    With the beginning of the SVO, he fell into charm, overestimating the successes of the RF Armed Forces in a maneuver war, commenting in excellent epithets on the brilliant forced marches of our mechanized columns hundreds of kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory

    No, Ritter underestimates our effectiveness. But not as much as the rest of the western zombies
  9. Artie Offline Artie
    Artie (Artyom Korolev) 1 July 2022 01: 39
    0
    However, faced with the complete fiasco of the 1st stage of the NWO

    I can only repeat that you Stage 1 of the CBO was completed exactly according to the plan. Namely, to complete the ground corridor Crimea-LDNR, along the way, tying down the central grouping near Kyiv, preventing it from coming to the aid of its own people to the east and thereby preventing the LDNR from crushing, while we fulfill the main goal of stage 1 - the ground corridor in the south. The General Staff also assessed the 1st stage as successful and even slightly ahead of schedule. And you are a balabol
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  12. Artie Offline Artie
    Artie (Artyom Korolev) 1 July 2022 01: 50
    0
    (here again, a reproach towards the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, who did not assess the strength of the enemy, as a result of which the 1st stage of the NMD was heroically failed, and with heavy losses on our part in manpower and equipment).

    Again the balabol lied. First, the enemy is weak and the only thing , which makes the course of the NMD gradual and accurate - the first in military history, the mass sitting of almost the entire army of one of the parties (Ukrainian) behind civilians, which sharply limits the possibility of Russia using fire weapons, in particular, bombing is almost not used (only 3% of capabilities of the Russian air group near the Ukrainians). With the same success, the army of the Congo could sit behind the peacekeepers in Ukra, and the NVO would go about the same

    Stage 1 of the NWO (breaking through the land corridor LDNR-Crimea) was completed successfully. Losses for such a lightning-fast advance are small. As soon as we moved to stage 2 and there was no need to break through such corridors, losses fell by about 6 times