A special military operation launched a month ago in Ukraine enables Russia not only to demilitarize and denazify a dangerous neighbor, but also simultaneously solve the problem of two Russian exclaves that cannot be solved by peaceful means - Transnistria (formally part of Moldova) and the Kaliningrad region. If in the first case it will be enough to knock out the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine from the Black Sea region, then in the second case it will be necessary to face the national interests of Poland and seek a compromise.
The Kaliningrad region, which became part of the USSR following the Second World War, after its collapse was sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, having no common land border with the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation. You can get there by the Baltic Sea or by transit through Lithuania and Belarus. This means that the supply of this exclave is its "Achilles' heel". Moreover, given that it is in the Kaliningrad region that the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation is based, equipped with Caliber cruise missiles, and the Iskander-M OTRK capable of covering key NATO military infrastructure facilities, it is a priority target for the Western bloc in the event of an armed conflict with Russia. Judging by the exercises that the North Atlantic Alliance has been actively conducting in recent years around our exclave, its headquarters intended to first blockade it, and then either crush it by force, or shake the situation from the inside and then enter under the guise of "peacekeepers" with another " humanitarian mission.
So, the de facto blockade of Kaliningrad has already begun.
One of the very first Western sanctions in response to the start of a special military operation in Ukraine was a ban on Russian airlines from using the airspace of the European Union. Now, in order to fly to Kaliningrad from Moscow, our planes have to describe a real "rocker" in the sky: fly through the Leningrad Region and over the international waters of the Baltic Sea. Residents of the exclave complain about the sharply increased price tags for air tickets, which have become unaffordable for many.
At the same time, the situation with food prices began to worsen. It all started because of the sanctions imposed by Lithuania on transit through Belarus, which also affected the Kaliningrad region. Retailers had to start cargo flows through Latvia, but there “unexpectedly” there were problems with the software at the customs, which is why many kilometers of traffic jams, consisting of trucks, formed on the Latvian border.
And against this background, the former commander of the Polish ground forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak, said about the possible claims of neighboring Poland to the former East Prussia:
Now it would be worth mentioning these lands as once conquered. The Kaliningrad region, in my opinion, is part of the Polish territory. We have the right to claim the territory occupied by Russia.
Note that the general, of course, expresses his personal position. Undoubtedly, Berlin will have a different point of view on the belonging of the former East Prussia and the possibility of revising the results of the Second World War. And such statements by high-ranking Polish military will definitely not improve relations between Warsaw and Moscow. Russia is not Ukraine for someone to encroach on its territory with impunity, and a month ago it proved that it was ready to defend its national interests with arms in hand.
However, state interests can be protected not only by military methods, which I would like to talk about in more detail.
On the eve of the "Reporter" came out publication, in which we discussed how beneficial the hypothetical division of the former Independent, together with its Eastern European neighbors - Poland, Hungary and Romania, could be. In general, there were more pluses than minuses, especially in Galicia and Volhynia.
So, provided that this region officially joins the Republic of Poland according to the “Crimean scenario”, the RF Armed Forces get rid of the need to conduct military operations in Western Ukraine with great bloodshed, and then hold it, catching “partisans” for decades, who, undoubtedly, they will shoot our soldiers in the back, poison wells and put land mines under vehicles. Restoring order, disarming the territorial defense and other gangs, restoring and maintaining Galicia and Volhynia will no longer be Moscow's problems, but Warsaw's. It will be enough to equip a normal new border. There is also no doubt that the Poles will carry out a real “debanderization” of the Eastern Crosses, since they hate Bandera and their ideological successors even more than the Russians. The withdrawal of Western Ukraine into Poland, Hungary and Romania would allow peacefully removing from the body of Little Russia and Novorossia the source of aggressive “Ukrainianism” that cannot be eliminated by other methods for their subsequent denazification and Russification.
In general, there are really more pluses that will give a quick visible result than minuses. But our readers quite rightly noted that Eastern European partners should not make such generous "gifts" just like that, and in return it is necessary to carry out a territorial exchange for a land transport corridor to the Kaliningrad region. Let's talk about this curious idea.
Indeed, the exchange of territories is a completely normal international practice. Moreover, in 1951 the USSR and Poland actually exchanged territories with a total area of 480 square kilometers. The problem is that Galicia and Volyn are still officially part of another yet sovereign state of Ukraine. Moscow simply cannot exchange them as its own for something from Warsaw. There is no need to talk about any exchange of Western Ukraine for a “pair of Polish provinces”. However, there is still a realistic option.
Russia can theoretically close its eyes temporarily to the entry of Polish "peacekeepers" into Galicia and Volhynia, provided that they disarm the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense, as well as accept the region as part of the Republic of Poland. In return, we are provided with a land transport corridor to the Kaliningrad region through Suvalkiya, where a railway line and a highway with extraterritorial status will be built. Such a scenario may be acceptable both for Warsaw, which receives its Eastern Crosses in return, and for Moscow, which is solving the problem of a transport blockade of its exclave.
Well, or you can make war, with noise and dust, if you can’t agree in a good way. The main thing is to give people the opportunity to make an informed choice. In general, what is happening is somehow very reminiscent of what preceded the start of the Second World War.