Dear friends, I understand, of course, that you all expect me to end the protracted military-diplomatic saga about Russia's ultimatum, unprecedented in its audacity, to the collective West. I promised to tell how the Kremlin can respond to Washington's refusal to make concessions to it. And I do not renounce my promises, I will write with what we will threaten the Yankees, and why they will nevertheless, gritting their teeth, agree to fulfill our conditions.
But in this matter, not everything depends only on me. I hope you understand that the script for this action is written in the course of the play, and the screenwriter here is not me, but Putin. And he knows how to pause. The Kremlin is in no hurry to put all the cards on the table at once, it slowly but surely raises the stakes, spinning the intrigue. And, as luck would have it, I have no direct telephone connection with the Kremlin (I hope they will take this into account and correct the situation so that I can keep you informed). Therefore, for now, you have to rely only on open sources and your own head, analyzing the current situation. And it continues to spin, because not only the Kremlin is raising the stakes.
In the event of an “invasion” of Putin’s hordes into Ukraine, the West threatens not only with disconnection from SWIFT and a complete trade embargo of Russia, but also with admission to NATO, in addition to the most long-suffering Ukraine, also Sweden and Finland (I don’t know, in my opinion, the Swedes themselves and Finns didn't ask them about it). On the other hand, they already agree to the resumption of negotiations on the INF Treaty, the limitation of NATO exercises near the borders of the Russian Federation, and even the reduction of offensive weapons in Europe (this was recently stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg). As you can see, the process is slowly, but gone.
In the meantime, we are all waiting for the outcome of the confrontation along the lines of the Russian Federation-USA-NATO, amazing events are taking place, which I cannot but comment on.
This Month's Most Popular Politician
I don’t know about you, but I’m just delighted (or, as they say in Ukraine, “at the grip”) from the deputy head of our Foreign Ministry, the dearest and most intelligent Sergey Alekseevich Ryabkov. In my rankings of the most popular politicians For the last 30 days, it has been on the 1st place, with a noticeable margin ahead of all the others. It all started back on December 17, with his briefing for Russian and foreign journalists, where he rolled out a list of our claims to the US and its allies. Already there he surprised everyone. But then he continued to burn with napalm. On January 10, at his press conference following the results of negotiations with the American side, he beautifully lowered the Bloomberg correspondent, comparing his charitable organization with Roquefort cheese with the same smelly smell. Some of the answers to foreign journalists he gave there in English. Only recently I heard the original translation (during that press conference there was a bad translator, he omitted part of the text). And he is worth quoting here. Enjoy the moment:
Ukraine and Georgia will never, never become members of NATO. This would be a welcome change for the better in NATO's position. We are fed up with idle talk, half-promises or free interpretation of what happened in closed-door negotiations. We no longer trust the other side. We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances, not warnings, but guarantees, with all the words “must” and “must”. All that should be in this document is “these countries will never become members of NATO!
But further Sergey Alekseevich continued to please. Already in an interview with Tina Kandelaki, he hung Biden with his entire White House by the tail with the words that he could not comment on our possible military presence in Cuba and Venezuela, but he could not exclude anything either. After such words, Washington's nerves passed already, and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that the United States would not tolerate such a thing. Yeah. We will remember it. We, too, will not tolerate something in our underbelly. Basically, the list of what we won't tolerate is on his desk. Ryabkov added to these demands the cancellation of the decision of the Bucharest 2008 NATO summit on the possible admission of Georgia and Ukraine to it. So he said - we demand to denounce this decision of NATO.
But Sergey Alekseevich did not stop there either. At an online conference of the Valdai discussion club, where he was invited as a speaker, he casually corrected an RT journalist when she asked about his attitude to the fact that the “Russian-Belarusian exercises “Allied Resolve-2022” are presented by most media in the West as preparation for the invasion of Ukraine. Sergey Alekseevich interrupted her and said that he was not “to Ukraine”, but “to Ukraine”. Everyone laughed merrily.
The domino effect
At the same press conference, I remember the speech of the American professor of political science from the University of Chicago, John Mearshiner. With his speech, he only confirmed the fact that in America not all mentally handicapped characters, including their president, no, there are still sane and responsible people, but there are not many of them.
And this professor, in pure English, having warned in advance that his views were not typical of the American establishment, analyzed the situation between us and expressed fear that it would not have a positive solution, moreover, in his opinion, it would only get worse . Further, he analyzed the causes of the current crisis and laid the blame for its creation on the United States, which supported the coup d'etat in Ukraine in 2014, as a result of which Ukraine became a stronghold and outpost of the Western world on the borders of the Russian Federation, which, to put it mildly, did not quite suit the Russian Federation (or rather , did not suit at all). And most of all, Russia was not satisfied with the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO (also enshrined in the Constitution of this sub-state).
Having come to the Oval Office a year ago, President Biden continued this policy, which forced the Kremlin to escalate, starting from the concept of the indivisibility of security (the security of some countries ends where the security of other countries begins). The United States itself is guided by this very principle, which is enshrined in the Monroe Doctrine - no country from the Eastern Hemisphere has the right to form a military alliance with a country from the Western Hemisphere and deploy its military contingents there. Latin and Central America is a zone of US interests, and they will never tolerate the presence of strangers there, especially with weapons. But what is due to Jupiter is not due to the bull. Russia does not agree with this, moreover, it no longer considers itself a bull.
As a result of all of the above, Moscow rolled out a list of claims against the United States and its allies, demanding that they consider the package and give a response in writing within 10 days, threatening with symmetrical actions of a military and military-technical nature. Moreover, Professor Mearshiner, knowing our president, suggests responses that are not symmetrical, but just asymmetrical in nature, “quick and very tough.”
At the same time, emphasizing that the blame for the current situation lies solely with the United States, the professor of political science pointed out four reasons why Washington will never be able to make concessions to the Kremlin. First the reason is conceptual, ideological - in the opinion of most Americans, Russian leaders are bad guys, and US leaders are good guys, and in their black and white world, the good guys should never give in to the bad guys. The responsibility for the current crisis lies exclusively with the Russian side, the American side can never be to blame for anything. Such a narrow-minded position! The second the reason is the adherence to liberal ideas and values: the Americans believe that Ukraine has a sacred right to join those blocs that it deems necessary, and no Russia can order it to do so. This is the sacred cow on which the foundations of Western liberal democracy are based, and the Americans will never give up on it. The third the reason is internal in nature - President Biden has such a situation in his own country that not only the Republicans, who have been digging his grave for a long time, but even his own party Democrats will not forgive him for another failure. Grandpa is sitting on a very wobbly chair, step left or right and you are dead. And finally fourth, the last, external reason is China, it is closely following the development of the confrontation and will interpret any slack in the United States at its own expense, demanding that the sore Taiwan issue and the issue with the South China Sea be resolved in its favor.
The professor does not see a way out of the current situation, moreover, he believes that it will only worsen due to the fault of the American side, which has taken a stubborn position - not a step back from the existing status quo. And this despite the fact that the States know in advance that in the long run they will never be able to defeat Russia in this dispute, because it is actually backed up against the wall. Therefore, he predicts a domino effect - the United States will respond to Moscow's demands for guarantees of its security with an unconditional refusal (for the reasons indicated above), no one knows Moscow's response, but the professor has no doubt that they will be quick and very tough. This will force the United States to take its own retaliatory actions, to which Moscow will respond with its own counteractions. Where they will stop and who will win in this confrontation, the professor does not know. But the fact that the culprit of the current situation is sitting on Capitol Hill, he does not doubt. As proof, he quoted George Kennan, who, back in 1997, said that
NATO expansion will be the most disastrous American policy blunder in the post-Cold War era.
For those who do not know who George Ford Kennan (1904-2005) is, I will say - this is the 8th US Ambassador to the USSR (1952), an American diplomat, political scientist and historian, founder of the Kennan Institute (Center for the Study of the Soviet Union in order to counter it), better known as the "architect of the Cold War", the ideological father of the "policy of containment" and the Truman Doctrine.
“If I can, then I must!” (V.V. Putin)
Epigraph: "Do not want the bad, the good will be worse!" (D. Trump)
How did we come to such a life, Putin has already explained. In 2001, through the efforts of the administration of the then ruling President of America, Bush Jr., the United States withdrew from the ABM (anti-missile defense) Treaty. Putin then asked, persuaded not to do this. But the States did not listen to him, putting us in front of the looming prospect of breaking the balance of forces existing at that time in strategic nuclear forces (nuclear deterrence), which could allow them to talk to us already from a position of strength (although this is the norm for them). The fact is that their anti-missiles (remarkable, by the way, we don’t have them!) Could shoot down our silo-based ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) even on take-off trajectories, thereby leveling the existing parity in nuclear weapons (nuclear weapons) of ground, sea and air basing. The Americans at that time had an advantage in the last two, which we compensated for with an advantage in the ground component of the strategic nuclear forces. And these wonderful, exclusively defensive anti-missiles leveled this advantage, multiplying it by zero. What were we to do?
It was possible to follow the ruinous path of creating similar missile defense systems. Our excellent Buk-M2, S-300, S-400, S-500 air defense systems and other simpler melee missile defense and air defense systems, such as the Tunguska air defense missile system, the Tor-M2 air defense system and the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system were able to destroy targets only at the final stage of the flight, we did not hit anything on takeoff. What was to be done? It is expensive to create our own, and where will we put them - in Mexico? Is not a fact! Therefore, we took a different path, creating a fundamentally new class of weapons - hypersonic, capable of breaking through any layered missile defense system. And they succeeded. The work was carried out for 17 years. You know the results. And now, from the height of our advantage, we say: “Well, guys, let's negotiate! We are even ready to include our new hypersonic weapons in the new INF Treaty.” The fact is that in 2019, thanks to the efforts of Trump, the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and a year later, also from the Open Skies Treaty. And now, having in our hands subsonic winged "Caliber" with a range of up to 4,5 thousand km and sea-based hypersonic "Zircons" with a range of up to 1000 km, we demand guarantees of our security. And if you are not ready to provide them to us, then plan "B" comes into force.
And here the horror seized our opponents. What does Putin mean? Nobody knows about it. But everyone knows that he does not throw words into the wind. After receiving a written refusal to provide us with guarantees of our security, he will begin to implement his own plan. Now we are just choosing a site where our precious "partners" will be shown all the destructive power of our weapons. I think after that they will become more accommodating. At the same time, no one is going to shoot at them and their territories (why do we need the Third World War?), but they will be able to understand that they are next in line. Both the States and their closest NATO allies for the first time in 60 years after the Caribbean crisis will feel that this time it will not be possible to sit out overseas or under the NATO umbrella - this bell is already ringing for them.
The denouement of events is approaching. The deadline is likely to happen after February 10th. On this day, the start of the Russian-Belarusian exercises "Allied Resolve-2022" is scheduled. A week before this, there will be a personal meeting of comrade. Xi and Vladimir Putin on the fields of the 4th Winter Olympic Games starting on February 24 in Beijing. By this time, Washington and Co. will have already received a written refusal to provide legal guarantees of Russia's security that NATO will not move eastward. Putin's hands will be free and, after coordinating his actions with the Chinese side, he will finally begin to implement his long-cherished plan "B" to force the United States to peace.
We are waiting, sir… I have a feeling that Putin will definitely not choose Ukraine as a platform for demonstrating our military greatness (unless the States arrange another provocation there). Where this can happen is already in the next text.