Will Ukraine be engulfed by large-scale “gas protests”


In the first days of the New Year 2022, a real apex coup took place in Kazakhstan, the background for which was mass street protests that turned into riots and armed clashes. At first, these events received the unofficial name "gas maidan", and after that we counted it is possible to rename them into "rebellion of superfluous people". Be that as it may, a change of power in Kazakhstan has taken place: President Tokayev has turned from a “puppet” into a sovereign master, and the clan of ex-president Nazarbayev has fallen into disgrace. The question arises, can something similar happen in Ukraine, where there are enough gas problems and their own “extra people”?


It is worth reflecting on this difficult and controversial topic, since the change of the pro-Western regime in Kiev to some other without a direct military invasion of Russia can be very beneficial for us. The key question is who will replace Pan Zelensky: former President Poroshenko, who unexpectedly returned to Ukraine from abroad, with his radicals, or some conditionally pro-Russian or at least conditionally neutral forces? Let's leave this aside for now and see if the Square has matured to its "rebellion of superfluous people."

"Gas Maidan" in Ukraine?


The last drop of patience of the Kazakhstanis was the double simultaneous increase in prices for motor liquefied gas, propane and butane, which would inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of all other goods and food products. In Ukraine, energy prices are constantly rising, but gradually, so as not to "pull out the pin". However, the pro-Western puppet regime has already come close to the point of no return.

The Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs has announced that already this month 50% of all industrial production in the country will become unprofitable. The reason is the abnormally high prices for gas, which accounts for up to half of the cost of production. Kiev itself exacerbated the already difficult problem by refusing to buy "blue fuel" directly from Gazprom, preferring to buy it with an additional payment from its European neighbors. The result of such policy "gaining energy independence from Russia" has already made itself felt in full.

Thus, the increase in gas prices did not bypass Ukrainian fertilizer producers, which led to an increase in the cost of saltpeter from 8-11 thousand hryvnia per ton to 25-27 thousand. More than half of the gross domestic product in Nezalezhnaya is accounted for by farmers with land plots not exceeding 500 hectares, that is, rather poor ones. The rise in the price of nitrogenous fertilizers for farmers will entail a decrease in the volume of fertilizer application during the sowing season, which means a decrease in yields and an increase in the cost of grain and other crops in 2022. This should exacerbate the already existing problems with the cost of food in Ukrainian stores.

At the end of 2021, a very serious increase in food prices was noted. Compared to the same period in 2020, for example, a long loaf has risen in price from 17 to 22 hryvnia, and Ukrainian bread - from 24 to 30 hryvnia. Bread is the head of everything. The increase in the cost of buckwheat is 50%, beef - 18%, chicken fillet - 22%, pork - 8%, butter - 14%, milk - 4%, flour - 24%, tomatoes - 4%, onions - 50%, garlic - 69%, beets and cabbage - 69%. This prompted the authorities last December to impose a maximum market markup on a range of foodstuffs.

Alas, it didn't help. The reason lies in abnormally high energy prices, which make the production and marketing of food at regulated prices unprofitable. On his Facebook page, the owner of the Ukrainian trademarks Trapeza and Attual, Alavdi Khalidov, tried to explain himself to his subscribers:

Judge for yourself, if, for example, the cost of gas in the cost of production of one kilogram of cereals in September 2021 was about UAH 3,38, then in November 2021 it was already UAH 8,05, and in January 2022 the cost of gas per kilogram of cereals was already 12,19 hryvnia.

The share of Khalidov's company for cereals accounts for about 30-40% of the market. Large producers suddenly found themselves in the most difficult situation, since they are connected with retail chains by long-term contracts, and now they have also been forced to sell at a loss due to margin limits. This automatically leads to the fact that they, together with retailers, will transfer their costs to other commodity items that the regulator has not reached yet. At the same time, small agricultural producers are not yet bound by restrictions and have already increased the selling price.

The fact that the rise in food prices in 2022 cannot be stopped was bluntly stated by Oleg Ustenko, aide to President Zelensky:

The price of products will go up by 10-20%, judging by forward contracts. Grains, sugar, cocoa beans - everything goes up.

Prime Minister Dmitry Shmyhal also spoke in his tone, confirming that in order to avoid the collapse of industry in Ukraine, retail prices would have to be released. So, the Yagotinsky dairy plant first reduced its volumes, and from the beginning of the year it suspended its work. This, by the way, is the largest enterprise in the dairy industry in Ukraine. True, the head of government promised that they would not grow "to heaven." The above-mentioned Mr. Ustenko spoke about the introduction of food cards in Nezalezhnaya:

The idea of ​​how to support the most vulnerable segments of the population is relevant. And there may be a dozen options on how to distribute this subsidy. But we're talking about the economywhere much is probabilistic. That is, it may or may not be.

Let us recall that the events in Petrograd in 1917 became irreversible when the rumor about the introduction of bread cards spread. Let's add to the above that abnormally high gas prices led to the closure of regular Ukrainian enterprises, in particular, the glass industry. There may be 12 workers on the street.

As a matter of fact, all the prerequisites for the "gas Maidan" are evident. Yes, Pan Poroshenko was also returned to Ukraine, obviously not to stabilize the political situation. The only question now is whether Russia, or rather its special services, is capable of taking advantage of the situation and replaying the alignment in their favor.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 21 January 2022 11: 40
    -2
    The only question now is whether Russia, or rather its special services, is capable of taking advantage of the situation and replaying the alignment in their favor.

    - No, I can't...
    - Russia slammed everything in Kazakhstan too ... - And in Ukraine, there’s nothing to catch at all ...
    - As for Kazakhstan, I personally wrote a lot about 2 years ago - both about Kazakhstan and about Kazakhs, etc. - I can put all these comments of mine here ... here ... here ... - And to my today's regret - all of them are relevant today ... - Alas, everything that I spoke about came true ...
    - And today in Kazakhstan, Russia slammed "everything and everything" ...
    - In a recent topic "Nazarbayev wrote down an appeal to the people" - I personally have already described the current situation:

    - The leadership of Russia (our guarantor and the entire Russian oligarchic cabinet) is more satisfied (satisfied) with the "board"; or rather, the dominance of the Nazarbayev clan in everything in the Kyrgyz Republic ...
    - But since it "turned out" like that; that it was Tokayev who managed to "brew all this mess" and take over the role of "savior of Kazakhstan" - then Russia also has to "play along" with Tokayev and, as it were, "be on his side" .... - But how long will Tokayev himself last?? ? - After all, the Americans (USA) are now unlikely to poke their noses in Kazakhstan - it is now very difficult for them ... - And Russia does not need such a leader of the Kyrgyz Republic - like Tokayev ... - But who expected that Tokayev would turn out to be so quick .. .
    - Tokayev managed to use Russia on his side (for his own purposes) ... - And Russia, which was more beneficial to Nazarbayev, also unwittingly supported Tokayev ...
    - Yes, a clever politician ... this Tokaev ... - As long as he succeeds ...

    - And as a summary:

    Russia slammed this situation ... - and did not seize the initiative ...
    - Our peacekeepers have already been returned - and they will soon be forgotten ...
    - Everything is reminiscent of the situation twenty years ago ... in Yugoslavia; when our paratroopers occupied the airport in Pristina with a single impulse ... - How they were then praised and everyone already thought that ....................... ..
    - But everything remained a "blank shot" to nowhere ...
    - All this was repeated in Kazakhstan in January 2022 ...

    - And to all this you can add:

    Personally, I am absolutely sure that the "next time" Tokayev will ask for help not from Russia; and the United States (NATO) - and they won’t “talk” ... - they will quickly transfer on their Boeings - entire “peacekeeping divisions” to the Kyrgyz Republic ...
    - In general, it's time for Russia to buy out and return back its territories; koi somehow ridiculous images suddenly became "Kazakh" ...
    1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 21 January 2022 11: 57
      -6
      - And all Russia had to do was wait for the "development of the situation" ... In Kazakhstan ... - until it flared up there "as it should" and reached the "real shooting" ... - And then ; having a dangerous situation on its border (very long) with the state where a real coup d'état took place ... - which is not clear what will result ... and there is already a war ... - That's when it was necessary to bring Russian troops into Kazakhstan. .. - to protect the Russian-speaking population (and this is about 3,5 million people) ... and in order to stabilize and localize the escalating military conflict ...
      And not to introduce some kind of paratrooper battalion to "protect objects" - but to introduce a tank corps and several motorized divisions; missile brigades; several aviation regiments of the VKS; systems of electronic warfare, electronic warfare, etc. ... and so on ... - After all, a direct threat has been created for the Russian-speaking population of the Kyrgyz Republic; as well as a direct threat to the Russian regions bordering on the Republic of Kazakhstan ... - And these are thousand-kilometer sections ...

      - And what can Russia do today in Ukraine??? - In Ukraine, which has its own army and is supported and armed by NATO countries ??? - Even such a nonentity as Zelensky - and then he gained political weight and easily pushes Lithuanians, and Latvians, and Estonians, and Bulgarians, and Czechs (and these are real members of NATO) "into the background" ... - Zelensky already knows this the whole world and the Americans shake hands with him ... - he became popular and Ukrainians support him ... - And who knows in the world - all the same "leaders" ... - "Lithuanians, and Latvians, and Estonians, and Bulgarians, and Czechs" and so on ??? - No one!!!
      - And what can be "replayed" here ??? - What other special services???
      - Most likely, a meeting between Zelensky and Putin will take place very soon...; unless a small local military conflict with Ukraine starts...
    2. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 25 January 2022 10: 52
      -2
      The Elbasy overslept, and the Republic of Kazakhstan was missed.
  2. Banski Offline Banski
    Banski (Banski) 21 January 2022 11: 51
    0
    Quote: gorenina91
    And today in Kazakhstan, Russia slammed "everything and everything"

    Well, please tell me, Putin could have disobeyed Uncle Xi, so there was nothing to slam there, and even more so to catch, although yes, the plans were grandiose.
  3. viktortarianik Offline viktortarianik
    viktortarianik (Victor) 21 January 2022 11: 52
    -1
    There are all the prerequisites for a revolution in Ukraine, but there is no one to organize it.
    1. Muscool Offline Muscool
      Muscool (Glory) 21 January 2022 13: 00
      0
      Let's go with you, rock the boat there?
  4. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
    Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 21 January 2022 11: 53
    +1
    Yes, Pan Poroshenko was also returned to Ukraine, obviously not to stabilize the political situation ...

    They didn’t just return him, with this “arrest is not an arrest”, “detention is not an arrest”, Poroshenko was visually exposed like a macho against the backdrop of the drug slug WE.
    And with pomp, coverage in all media.

    They took out an old doll from the chest, shook it well from mothballs and put it under the spotlights.

    Definitely, Poroshenko was made a consolidated figure around which Zelensky's opponents will be gathered.

    This will be the main oppositional figure of the forthcoming seethings, there will be no others or will not be comparable in scale.
  5. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 21 January 2022 11: 58
    0
    Khokhols will endure everything. They will rise only if the promise of a future eurofreebie is canceled out loud.
  6. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 21 January 2022 12: 06
    +2
    There will be no gas protests.
    First, the importance of gas in the cost of production is greatly exaggerated.
    Secondly, Ukraine is preparing for war.
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 21 January 2022 12: 25
    0
    Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    There will be no gas protests.
    First, the importance of gas in the cost of production is greatly exaggerated.
    Secondly, Ukraine is preparing for war.

    Oh, naive predictor. It depends on who wants to organize them.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 21 January 2022 12: 44
      +2
      Oh, NOT naive Marzhetsky, tell us who will organize and why. Not at all, but right now.
      1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 21 January 2022 13: 56
        -1
        Have we switched to you?
        I usually convey my thoughts in articles. Everything is written there.
        1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 21 January 2022 15: 36
          0
          OK. Then answer me a simple question.

          Judge for yourself, if, for example, the cost of gas in the cost of production of one kilogram of cereals in September 2021 was about UAH 3,38, then in November 2021 it was already UAH 8,05, and in January 2022 the cost of gas per kilogram of cereals was already 12,19 hryvnia.

          What is the cost of a kilogram of cereals in January 2022?
          Without this information, it is impossible to understand how much the increase in the cost of gas affects the increase in prices.
          And yes, I'll tell you right now. If the cost of gas in the cost of cereals turns out to be more than 10%, then tell us in more detail what kind of cereal it is?
  8. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 21 January 2022 12: 38
    +1
    Mass actions have a chance of success only if they are supported by this or that grouping of the ruling class.
    Social unrest in Kazakhstan is the result of intra-class contradictions in the ruling class. Tokayev and those behind him had little chance of holding on to power (the KNB effectively neutralized the army and police), and his appeal to the CSTO is a cry of despair and last hope.
    A new Maidan in Ukraine has the prerequisites to be due to the intra-class struggle and contradictions of the ruling class, but is unlikely due to the disinterest of the USA, EU and NATO members.
  9. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
    Mikhail L. 21 January 2022 13: 51
    +1
    Most impressed by the Author's:

    Let us recall that the events in Petrograd in 1917 became irreversible when the rumor about the introduction of bread cards spread.

    So the possible introduction of ration cards ... following the American model has already been announced at the official level.
    But the "February Revolution" does not smell!
    Ukraine is not Petrograd in 1917!
    As a last resort, there is an opportunity to use ... "visa-free"!
  10. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 21 January 2022 13: 57
    0
    Quote: Mikhail L.
    Most impressed by the Author's:
    >Recall that the events in Petrograd in 1917 became irreversible when there was a rumor about the introduction of bread cards.
    So the possible introduction of ration cards ... following the American model has already been announced at the official level.
    But the "February Revolution" does not smell!
    Ukraine is not Petrograd in 1917!

    "Februaries" happen when someone really needs it
    1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
      Mikhail L. 21 January 2022 14: 21
      0
      "Februaries" happen spontaneously.
  11. Captain stoner Offline Captain stoner
    Captain stoner (Captain Stoner) 21 January 2022 20: 05
    +1
    Let us recall that the events in Petrograd in 1917 became irreversible when the rumor about the introduction of bread cards spread.

    When I was a student, with such a "concrete" handling of the date, one teacher remarked: "There were 1917 months in 12," hinting that the date must be named exactly.

    The head of the State Duma Labor Committee, Yaroslav Nilov, recommended introducing a system of certificates for food and medicine. He reacted to the statements of the head of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences about the introduction of food cards for citizens with low incomes, if price increases hurt the wallets of low-income Russians.
    "We have long submitted to the State Duma a draft law, according to which needy citizens are provided with food and medicinal certificates with a certain denomination," RIA Novosti quotes Nilov as saying.

    In this situation, I do not really understand how Russia differs from Ukraine?
  12. Gosha Smirnov Offline Gosha Smirnov
    Gosha Smirnov (Smirnov) 22 January 2022 02: 48
    +1
    is Russia, or rather, its intelligence services, capable of taking advantage of the situation and replaying the alignment in their favor

    no, it’s not capable of a “classic coup from the counter-elite.” Because in Ukraine there is not even a trace of a pro-Russian counter-elite. But a palace coup against another pro-Western protege is quite possible if the clown Ze continues to balk and try to bend his line. such as pro-Russian, and in the best of times, the forces did not shine in the arena with their mass character, but now it is all torn out and strangled in the bud. There is no one to change at all. A kind of senseless and merciless rebellion - yes, but no more, and even then in certain regions of the country.
    Secondly, the prices here are far below the level of the waist for the people. so that the lid of the kettle is not torn off, a kind of exhaust valve. Instead of protests, people stupidly leave or stop paying utility bills altogether and only in isolated cases protest.
    Thirdly, the attitude of the country's helmsmen towards the remaining enterprises is at the level of understanding: "Why are they needed at all? They still produce some kind of dung. We will buy everything we need over the hill!" -in the country is constantly falling and no one has any interest in selling a product of a higher processing level. It is enough that grain and raw materials, semi-finished products and even scrap metal are driven stupidly over the hill on such a scale and records that new roads are literally waves from super-overloaded trucks. And last year there were also very good prices for everything. In the same year, a strong decline in prices for metals is expected.
  13. Konstantin_2 Offline Konstantin_2
    Konstantin_2 (Konstantin Alexandrovich) 22 January 2022 13: 45
    0
    Few. It should be like this:

    "Patriotic-minded fighters of the right sector, the hero of Ukraine Kotsyubailo and his detachment (Petrov and Bashirov), wanting to get rid of the damned dependence on the Aggressive aggressor, broke into the territory of Russia and blew up the Sudzha GDS.
  14. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 January 2022 20: 31
    +2
    Monthly Fantasies about the Maidan and the collapse in Ukraine
    half the winter has already passed, not a trace.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 23 January 2022 03: 16
      +1
      Yeah, tired of these regular, long-term fantasies. On the other hand, the Russian people are the same - stubborn and patient. It is a pity that the West deftly countered it with Russia. And, yes, now it is necessary to overthrow the pro-Western government, albeit through a war. It won't get any worse.
  15. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 26 January 2022 09: 48
    0
    They write some nonsense! Khokhols rejoice at everything that brings them closer to Europe: tariffs, prices. The rest is really bad. But a disaster for them is when they stop promising eurofreebies for anti-moskalism, when they will receive benefits of 2000 euros lying on the couch.
  16. Dick Kov Offline Dick Kov
    Dick Kov (Vladik Stebenkov) 3 February 2022 09: 56
    0
    For a riot, a Maidan, a coup d'etat, funding and activists are needed. Oligarchs and foreign powers will not finance new Maidans. All the property of the oligarchs is in Europe. They have secured their capital, adapted and do not want a regime change, because it is easier to fish in muddy water. You won't find activists in Ukraine now. The entire opposition is crushed by Nazis-radicals, Banderlogs-patriots. Quite a large part of young, energetic, active people went abroad to work. And it is from this part that an asset of protests could be formed. But this part is forced to earn a living for themselves and their families as guest workers. So Ukraine will be impoverished, depopulated, dying out, but there will be no protests that could lead to regime change. Remember the events in the holy 90s of the last century in Russia. The population was preoccupied with survival, and even the rebellion in 1993 against President Yeltsin was easily put down by force. There are poorer countries on the planet than Ukraine. But in these countries the population does not protest. Because there are no activists and funding. But as soon as the United States or another state finances activists in these countries, a rebellion and a coup d'état will immediately arise. We observed this in Russia in Moscow in 1991, in Libya, in Yugoslavia, in Ukraine and in the countries of the former socialist camp.