Things are heading for a denouement: Ukraine can return Donbass through a referendum


Continuing yesterday темы about the possible negative consequences of the implementation of the Minsk agreements. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he allows an all-Ukrainian referendum on the issue of Crimea and Donbass, as well as on the end of the war. Someone here will probably interpret this as a colossal victory of Russia over the United States in "geopolitical chess" following the talks between Presidents Putin and Biden. Unfortunately, most likely, everything is strictly the opposite.


A few days after the end of Russian-American talks, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a program interview to 1 + 1 TV channel:

I do not rule out a referendum on Donbass as a whole, and this is not a question of status. We can have this in life, it can be about Donbass, about Crimea, it can be about ending the war in general.

It would seem that one should dance with joy: here it is, the long-awaited breakthrough and the prospect of ending the long-term civil conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. Or not? Perhaps, after such a referendum, all the worst will just begin? Let's take a look at the main scenarios of how the events after the plebescite can develop further.

Bypass the "barrier"


Note that in the framework of the same interview, Volodymyr Aleksandrovich spoke a lot about the prospects for Ukraine's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance:

We continue our path to NATO. But we go, and there is a barrier. Do we see this, or do we care? We will bypass the barrier, but it is impossible to get around it.

As for the barrier, apparently, it means not only the unwillingness of a number of alliance members to see Independence there, but also the internal rules of the bloc itself. Thus, in article 6 of the study on NATO enlargement it is said that new states with interethnic tensions or territorial disputes cannot be admitted to it. The resolution of such conflicts by peaceful means will be one of the factors affecting the possibility of such a country joining the North Atlantic Alliance.

What do we see? Before Ukraine on the way to NATO there is a barrier in the form of the Crimea, disconnected and joined to Russia, as well as the DPR and LPR, disconnected and stuck halfway. For the eighth year, there has been a civil war in the country. How can Kiev bypass this barrier? Everything is quite simple and at the same time extremely difficult. For this, the problem of Crimea and Donbass must be resolved peacefully. How do you do it?

With the DPR and LPR, everything is clear: it is enough to fulfill the Minsk agreements and the unrecognized republics will themselves return "to their home harbor." But what can Kiev do with Crimea? Unlike Donbass, the Kremlin will not give it away under any circumstances. We have adopted the appropriate amendments to the Basic Law, and even for such appeals, you can get a criminal sentence. It turns out an unsolvable problem?

No, after all, Kiev has one option for joining NATO, but for this it will have to formally sacrifice the already uncontrolled territories, legally "amputate" the DPR, LPR and Crimea. Obviously, neither President Zelenskiy nor the Ukrainian parliament have such power. Let's turn to part 5 of the Constitution of the Independent:

The people are the bearers of sovereignty and the only source of power in Ukraine. The people exercise power directly and through government bodies and local government bodies. The right to determine and change the constitutional order in Ukraine belongs exclusively to the people and cannot be usurped by the state, its bodies or officials.

In other words, such decisions on changing the unitary form of state structure to a federal one or on the legal status of certain territories of the country can only be made directly by the citizens of Ukraine themselves in a referendum. Compared to the level of 2003, by the end of 2021, the idea of ​​joining NATO is supported by 58% versus 16%. If Kiev sets itself the goal of “shifting the arrows” and shifting all responsibility for the legal rejection of Crimea, DPR and LPR as “occupied” by Russia, it will be enough to carry out the appropriate information and propaganda processing of the population and correctly formulate the questions at the referendum. Then bribes from President Zelensky and the Verkhovna Rada will be smooth.

What will this give Kiev, or rather Washington? The territorial conflict will be nullified, and Ukraine will be able to join the NATO bloc. Elements of the American missile defense system, as well as nuclear and hypersonic missiles will be deployed on its territory. Nobody will ask the opinion of Moscow with its "red lines", especially since it will remain with Crimea and will also receive the dilapidated Donbass as a load. Is it a victory or a defeat for Russia? It depends on whether you are optimistic, pessimistic, or realistic. Think what you want.

But there is another option, much more realistic.

Return to "home harbor"


It is much more likely that through a referendum, President Zelensky will nevertheless try to push through the norm on granting Donbass some kind of "special status." Neither he himself nor the Verkhovna Rada would ever dare to do this, so Vladimir Aleksandrovich needs to shift the responsibility to the entire people so that there are no complaints against him personally.

Suppose that following the results of the plebiscite, the majority of those who voted give the go-ahead to amend the Constitution. By the way, it will not be difficult to get the required result, because almost half of Ukrainians are currently abroad. How, if necessary, the votes sent by mail can be falsified, Zelensky will be prompted by the American Democrats, who thus achieved a victory over Republican Trump. What's next?

Next will be the implementation of amendments to the Constitution, the holding of elections in Donbass and the formal completion of this sad epic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Border Service will take the border with Russia, which will turn into a real fortified area with minefields and "Bayraktar" patrolling the airspace and other UAVs. No more "northern winds", everything that happens on the other side of the border will be considered a purely "internal Ukrainian affair". About what may happen next, we will detail reasoned the day before.

Let's add to this just one more "creative" Ukrainian idea, how it will be possible to "cleanse" the territory of the DPR and LPR from the Russians in a completely peaceful way. No genocide. Most recently, President Zelensky made proposals to amend the law "On Citizenship of Ukraine", which proposes to take away Ukrainian citizenship from those citizens of Ukraine who have a second, Russian passport:

He will be taken away for the use on the territory of the country by an adult citizen of "documents of a foreigner, as a result of which a threat to national security and national interests of Ukraine is created." Also, passports can be deprived for establishing the fact of military service under a contract in Russia.

So calculate how many hundreds of thousands of residents of the DPR and LPR who have received Russian passports will automatically lose their Ukrainian ones. And then what should they do, having remained with the passports of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which will owe them nothing more? This is the real removal of people from the legal field, which will simply force them to leave for Russia. Suitcase, train station, huh?

Well, and, of course, no one will then prevent Kiev from holding another referendum and simply canceling the previously introduced amendments to the Constitution, taking away their "special status" from the DPR and LPR. Most likely, this will not be done by Vladimir Zelensky, but by his replacement. Perhaps it will be Petro Poroshenko as part of the fight against the "zrada" of his predecessor.

These are the "pitchforks" that brought Russia and Donbass policy "Multi-pass". With which we all "congratulate".
28 comments
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 11 December 2021 13: 31
    +5
    Donbass is being drained this week like never before laughing
    The most experienced bison of diplomacy Zelensky is holding a referendum, the second and finally the third control.
    What can be opposed to the pressure of a young talent request The referendum is a terrible weapon. It is enough to declare it to any clown and everything is lost.
    This is what the multi-moves have been brought to. crying And now how to live with it? sad
    1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
      sH, arK 12 December 2021 10: 56
      +1
      Yes, it's not very clear how Durkaina is going to "return" Donbass ?! Purely theoretically, for this it is necessary to "fulfill" and not "fulfill" the Minsk agreements, which is absolutely difficult to imagine in the current situation. And most importantly, this will lead to such a tension inside the DUrkaina, so it is very doubtful that the issue will ever be on the agenda at all!
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 12 December 2021 11: 56
        +2
        Yes, it's not very clear how Durkaina is going to "return" Donbass ?!

        Yes, she is not going to return it. Just an imitation of violent activity. It is necessary to portray a job in front of a foreign master. It will not be possible to seize by force and clean everything, other options are contraindicated for them. This is a foreign organism for them, a weak immune system will not be able to cope.
        1. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
          sH, arK 12 December 2021 13: 27
          +1
          Well, here Mr. Marzhetsky does not write on behalf of Ukraine;) These are his "thoughts" ?!
    2. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 14 December 2021 21: 09
      0
      123 (123). There is also a top secret protocol. Russia must pay for everything built in Ukraine in 300 years. They also have to pay a penalty to those who fought on three fronts, Hitler forgot to pay, the sinister because of this, looked at such a terrible amount of money, shot himself. Pay all the debts of Ukrina, which are in fact the debts of Russia. To pay for the fact that the Tatars and Mongols, under an agreement with Russia, did not seize Ukraine, which did not exist at that time due to Russia's sloppiness. Also donate tanks and missiles, airplanes and high-quality fishnet underpants. If at the moment such cowards in Russia are not observed to be purchased in other countries, French ones are recommended. After full settlement, Russia has the right to reside in the Ural Mountains under eternal protection and in shackles. No Jokes The most important planetary Zelensky. Everything is certified and there is a round and triangular hospital seal.
  2. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 11 December 2021 13: 48
    +4
    Now the West has told the Ukrainian people - "Sorry, it was fun, but further we are not on the way." What London and Washington said to Kiev, we do not know, it is quite possible - "Come on Zeleny, promote the referendum, after which we will deal with the east by already controlling the territory." The opposition to Zelensky is already torpedoing the idea of ​​a referendum (either just to hit Zelensky, or the referendum seems dangerous to them). The very attempt by Zelenskiy to push through the referendum could cause unrest in the country. If he (and the CIA) convinces nationalists and radicals that the referendum is just a way to trick the east, it could happen. But the main thing in it will be what changes to the constitution, what level of autonomy and what autonomy boundaries will be discussed. Moscow hardly does not see all the risks and is unlikely to throw the DPR and LPR at the mercy of Kiev. The legal split of Ukraine is already the skeleton of a future actual split, if there is such a need.
  3. NikolayN Offline NikolayN
    NikolayN (Nikolai) 11 December 2021 14: 00
    -3
    Something with the second option about the Crimea nothing. I believe that everyone who does not want to live in the Ukrainian Donbass should be settled in Russia. We have more than enough money, and we also have a boost for the economy. But for Ukraine it will be full of seams. No Galicians, Khmelnytsky, Lviv residents will go to Donbass. They have a completely different way of life. Even now they do not want to hear anything about Donbass and the war there does not concern them in any way. This is what Ukrainian experts say.
    So Ukraine does not have a good decision on Donbass.
    If Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russian, then we spit on NATO troops in Ukraine. Then we'll figure it out. We already have weapons capable of destroying their oceanic groupings and aircraft carriers. And even after the recognition of Crimea, we will have no controversial issues with the West. The modem and themselves to join NATO.
  4. Denis radish Offline Denis radish
    Denis radish (Denis Moroz) 11 December 2021 14: 02
    +1
    but do it need this very "Ukrainian" citizenship? what kind of country is that?)))
  5. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 11 December 2021 14: 15
    +12
    A referendum on the status of a territory is held only in that territory. For example, a referendum on Scotland was not held throughout England. Or the whole of Spain does not have the right to hold a referendum on the Basques.

    But suppose all of Ukraine held a referendum on Donbass. And what will be put to the vote? Separation of Donbass from Ukraine or the introduction of a "special status"? All this is deeply parallel to the residents of Donbass. They will not vote. And for the residents of Donbass, the results of the referendum are completely optional.

    Zelensky cannot fight (you can lose the presidential seat), he cannot stop fighting (you can lose the presidential seat). The referendum is another "creative" idea of ​​the clown to relieve himself of responsibility. Will he be able to withdraw the troops after the referendum, stop the shelling and take away 5 million weapons (there was such a figure) from criminal structures and ordinary residents?
    Poroshenko has already said that the idea of ​​a referendum has no foundation and is dangerous. Poroshenko is against, the National Battalions are against.
    Let's see in a few days how this idea ends ...
  6. Fourth Offline Fourth
    Fourth (Fourth) 11 December 2021 14: 40
    +2
    Zelenskiy, representative of the third force in Ukraine. Under Zelensky, this force has formalized for itself the status of the indigenous people of Ukraine. How long can you ignore this?
  7. Alexander Zima Offline Alexander Zima
    Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 11 December 2021 16: 09
    0
    Pushilin in RADA ..... it's vseravno that Yarosha's temple has a pistol .. there is no point in writing further.
  8. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 11 December 2021 17: 22
    +5
    Kindergarten "Burenka!"

    This is the real removal of people from the legal field, which will simply force them to leave for Russia. Suitcase, train station, huh?

    How do you imagine that? 1,5 million people live there in their (own) houses / apartments. And now, some kind of Zelensky tells them "go away!"
    Zelenskiy will immediately be sent by 1,5 million people on a walking erotic journey.
    Now Yanukovych's lawsuit is hanging over the Ukrainian government. And legally, this claim is a win-win. If it is somehow wrapped up in Ukraine, then it will not work in European courts. Ukraine got everyone. After the coming heating season, all European courts will vote correctly.
    The further, the more the idea of ​​the illegitimacy of the authorities in Ukraine after Yanukovych will be exaggerated. Experts in Ukraine agree with this. Plus the mass of crimes of the new government, which cannot be refuted.
    We still have to live to see the referendum. And the Ukrainian referendum itself will mean nothing for the LDNR. They can host their own, another one.
    Even if everything goes according to the Minsk agreements, let Zelenskiy try to prevent the people of the LPNR from voting. In addition, those who left for Ukraine will return there. They had housing there and they, one way or another, were also deprived of the right to vote. Despite the fact that they lived in Ukraine. In parliamentary elections, they will not vote for Servants of the People.
    In addition, people in the LPR should not be considered idiots. All such subtleties will be provided for by them when agreeing on new laws. And Russia will act as a guarantor of their implementation.
    According to the Minsk agreements, all laws and amendments to the Constitution must be coordinated with the LPNR. Otherwise, the Minsk agreements will get stuck. Until now, everything that was accepted or simply considered by the Rada was not agreed.
    This agreement will be deadlocked. Zelenskiy simply will not be able to complete this process. This is how this document is composed.
    But now time passes very quickly, in a year, many things will look completely different.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 December 2021 12: 04
      0
      How do you imagine that? 1,5 million people live there in their (own) houses / apartments. And now, some kind of Zelensky tells them "go away!"
      Zelenskiy will immediately be sent by 1,5 million people on a walking erotic journey.

      No, it simply deprives them of Ukrainian citizenship in their country. And all social obligations from the state.
  9. Oleg Ermakov Offline Oleg Ermakov
    Oleg Ermakov (Oleg Ermakov) 11 December 2021 17: 36
    +2
    The referendum and Minsk 2 under Pig had to be done, time wasted, and the time is still in favor of Russia and Donbass, the further, the more impossible any return to Ukraine is. Donbass, on average, is now living no worse than the rest of Ukraine, if you remove the shelling, it will definitely be better. Its own coal, its own Russian gas, combines, factories, black soil + there is no Ukrainian mess. We'll also see're coming out-workers in the Russian Donbass.
  10. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 11 December 2021 19: 33
    +1
    With Marzhetskiy, everything happens so simply as if he is playing a strategy. These degenerates have been committing self-harm for the eighth year. They have already shot themselves enough limbs to deprive themselves of the ability to move. The Ukrainians are no longer able to do anything worthwhile. At least to unleash a war at least to hold a referendum. The author overestimates the capabilities of these crippled idiots .. Those who tense up reading this analytics can relax, but those who did not tense up, 3 may laugh at such conclusions of the respected expert.
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 11 December 2021 23: 15
      +4
      The author overestimates the capabilities of these crippled idiots ..

      The author has little "interest" in the articles.
      Sadly, the quality of the material suffers.

      PS The gloomy scarecrows of Marzhetskiy haven’t hurt anyone for a long time ..
      1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 December 2021 12: 08
        0
        The author has little "interest" in the articles.
        Sadly, the quality of the material suffers.

        What is that supposed to mean?

        PS The gloomy scarecrows of Marzhetskiy haven’t hurt anyone for a long time ..

        Well, okay.
    2. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 December 2021 12: 05
      0
      Those who have tensed, reading this analytics, can relax, but those who have not tensed, 3 may laugh at such conclusions of a respected expert.

      Whoever has enough intelligence for anything does that.
  11. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 11 December 2021 21: 26
    0
    Well, it is still unknown how Donbass will vote and whether he will participate in it.
  12. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 11 December 2021 23: 11
    +2
    President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he allows an all-Ukrainian referendum on the issue of Crimea and Donbass, as well as on the end of the war. Someone here will probably interpret this as a colossal victory of Russia over the United States in "geopolitical chess" following the talks between Presidents Putin and Biden. Unfortunately, most likely, everything is strictly the opposite.

    Probably only Mr. Marzhetsky will interpret ..
    Others who want to do nonsense (I hope) are not here.

    PS I did not read the set of "regrets, assumptions and assumptions" further.
    Excuse me..
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 December 2021 12: 09
      0
      It's okay
  13. S WITH Offline S WITH
    S WITH (N S) 11 December 2021 23: 36
    +2
    and who will allow him to hold a referendum? there will be one referendum - for joining the Russian Federation
  14. potuda Offline potuda
    potuda (Igor) 12 December 2021 09: 15
    +2
    But I wonder, in our LPR, DPR he doesn't want to ask? Let them hold a referendum on joining us better. And we will consider.
  15. Mister who Offline Mister who
    Mister who (Max) 12 December 2021 10: 27
    +1
    After the referendum, 90% voted for the restoration of the USSR,))) anecdote!
  16. Sofa division Offline Sofa division
    Sofa division (Maksim) 12 December 2021 13: 21
    +1
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    No, it simply deprives them of Ukrainian citizenship in their country. And all social obligations from the state.

    And what does Kiev pay pensions to Donbass now? Or preferential mortgages?
  17. oleg.detisrov Offline oleg.detisrov
    oleg.detisrov (Oleg Detistov) 12 December 2021 15: 27
    +1
    The first option, honest, will lead to national humiliation of the entire population of Ukraine, both Russophobes and Russophiles. For the second option, dishonest, they will not have enough money. Mr. Zelensky has the ability to accelerate and kill himself against the wall. They will maintain the pipe at a loss for several years, then they will stop it. They will grow carrots. Finita la comedy.
  18. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 12 December 2021 17: 51
    0
    Everything can be the other way around. There is such, I do not know, or the truth.

    Poddubny arrived in Chapaev's division. We sat down at the table, drank, ate potatoes, and Poddubny began to brag, serve anyone, I'll twist a ram's horn. Chapaev thought about it and, of course, decided that there was no one except Petka. They built a platform and they went out to fight. Ivan Spins Petka, he only puffs. Chapaev, in order not to see such an outrage, went to the headquarters. A couple of minutes later he hears the screams of the soldiers - hurray Petka, he twisted Vanka. Finally, Petka, washed and cheerful, enters the headquarters. Where is Poddubny? He left the division ashamed of him. How did you defeat him? He began to twist me, suddenly I see, right in front of my eyes, eggs, what would you do, Vasily Ivanovich? How is that, I would have bit them. I did the same, Vasily Ivanovich, I bit them with all my might. Were those my balls? You have no idea what a person who has been bitten by eggs can do!
  19. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 17 December 2021 17: 14
    0
    Nothing will be written about here. Nobody will take such steps. Everything will again come down to the same uncertainty that it was. It is still beneficial to everyone. NATO does not need anything else yet - it is dragging weapons to Ukraine and providing tension on the borders. It is profitable for Russia to wait for a collapse in Ukraine. In the face of the impending crisis, they will stop feeding it and begin to divide it up for debts. There is almost nothing to take there, what remains is to tear it apart into pieces.