Implementation of Minsk agreements will be a defeat for Russia

Recently, direct talks between the Russian and American presidents took place, during which Vladimir Putin complained to his colleague Joe Biden about Kiev's failure to comply with the provisions of the Minsk agreements. Soon after, there were hints in the foreign press that Washington might put pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to give Donetsk and Luhansk some autonomy. Neither for Donbass itself, nor for Russia, this "breakthrough" shines with nothing good. Why so, let's try to figure it out.

The American edition of the Associated Press, citing its informed sources, reported that the White House may put pressure on Kiev in order to change the current status of Donbass:




According to the former US ambassador to Kiev, Stephen Pifer, it means that Donetsk and Luhansk may be given control over the local police, health care and educational institutions. To some, this may seem like a "breakthrough", but in fact it is a harbinger of great trouble for the Russian people, and here's why.

Since 2014, the idea has been persistently imposed on us that the implementation of the Minsk agreements will be a victory for the Russian policy in the Ukrainian direction. Allegedly, after the DPR and LPR receive a "special status" within Ukraine, other regions will also want the same, and Ukraine will almost collapse and fall at our feet. It is not true.

Let's look at these very Minsk agreements, namely at paragraph 9. The ninth says the following:


And in the tenth paragraph it is said about the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, mercenaries, as well as military equipment from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. What follows from the literal interpretation of the Minsk agreements?

Only that their implementation consists in the return of the unrecognized republics of Donbass back to Ukraine on some "special conditions." Also, some "foreign armed formations" will have to return home, and control over the border will return to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Border Service. At the same time, amnesty was promised to the combatants who fought for Novorossiya. This is exactly what the late heads of the DPR and LPR, Alexander Zakharchenko and Valery Bolotov, once signed up to.

A natural question arises, why is all this declared a victory for Russia and Donbass? What gives reason to believe that other regions of Ukraine, for example, Odessa, Chernigov or Kharkiv regions, will want the same?

Let me present some very realistic consequences that will occur if the Minsk agreements are successfully implemented:

At firsthaving achieved the expulsion of all "vacationers" and volunteers from its territory, Ukraine will take the border with Russia under complete control, after which there is no need to think about any "northern winds". The opportunity to somehow secretly intervene in what is happening in the Donbass will be eliminated, but it may still be needed. It is possible that at first official Kiev will not arrange demonstrative reprisals against supporters of the "Russian World" in the style of "Odessa Khatyn", but "will hang later," organization)? People will simply disappear, forever, dying somewhere in a basement or deep forest a terrible death at the hands of ideological neo-Nazis.

Secondly, it is not clear why someone suddenly decided that “special status” for Donbass is forever. Even if Kiev suppresses Washington and allows certain elections in the republics and even fixes some new provisions in the Constitution of Ukraine, who said that it will not be possible to replay it later? Here in Russia last summer, too, a lot of things were added to the Basic Law, so why is it impossible in Independent? A nationwide referendum will be held, and the majority of the population will deny Donbass a special status, and that's it, here's a complete "zeroing" of the successes of Russian diplomacy.

Thirdlyhaving received back the territory of the DPR and LPR under its control, Kiev will need funds to restore it. From whom to shake them? Well, of course, with Russia as the main "aggressor". There will certainly be an "international tribunal" following the war in Donbass with the participation of Americans and Europeans, where only the wine of our country will be established. By the way, quite a few residents of the DPR and LPR after such “execution of the Minsk agreements” will certainly gladly testify against the former “defenders” in order to prove their loyalty to Kiev. After that, they will demand reparations from us, either in cash, or free gas, or at the expense of some foreign property. And we're not going anywhere, Ukraine will have to pay for what she herself destroyed in the Donbass.

Finally, the final chord in this unheard-of success of Russian diplomacy will be that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will free their forces from Donbass and move to the border with Crimea. Neither Washington nor Kiev is going to recognize the peninsula as Russian, so after the liquidation of the DPR and LPR through the return to Ukraine, the "second act of the Marlezon Ballet" will begin. The Western partners will undoubtedly count the "deflection" and will only increase their pressure.

This is how the successful implementation of the Minsk agreements will end in no other way. The fact that the question has moved from words to deeds can be evidenced by the statement of the former American ambassador about the transfer of control over the police, medicine and education to Donetsk and Lugansk. Now they already have control, therefore, we are talking about a situation when they returned to Ukraine.

In conclusion, I would like to once again note that solving the problem of the status of the DPR, LPR and Crimea will deprive not in the steppes of Donbass, but in Kiev. It is a pity that our proprietary "multi-pass" methods do not extend that far.