"Khuzestan Gambit": Did the US Trade Afghanistan for Iran?

The swift and early withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan can rightfully be considered the most powerful image defeat for Washington in recent history. Abandoned crying babies, people falling from airplanes, the head of a puppet regime that was not able to take away all its cash at once. Take off this Hollywood, everyone would have laughed at the plot, calling it propaganda "cranberry", and this is real life.

But why did Washington go to such a radical scenario of evacuation, in fact, surrendering the whole country to the Taliban group, recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation and many other countries? Couldn't the Pentagon have calculated the options and their possible consequences in advance? Or, on the contrary, did American strategists deliberately sacrifice one piece on the board in order to later “eat” the larger one?

Afghan Gambit

As we have already drawn the attention of our readers, the withdrawal of US troops and the NATO bloc from Afghanistan could have one of its goals to create a threat to neighboring Iran. The puppet government capitulated and fled, the Taliban have now come to power in Kabul, but they do not yet have full control over the country. At the same time, another, even more terrible terrorist group ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation), which, in a certain vacuum, has the opportunity to raise its head again, has not gone anywhere. Similarly, the second coming of the "Islamic State" may take place in Iraq, from where the United States also promised to withdraw its troops by the end of 2021, about which we in detail told earlier.

Thus, pockets of potential terrorist threat emerge from both flanks of Iran. Why do we see Tehran as the addressee of this message from Washington?

Iran nuclear program

The Iranian nuclear program is considered to be one of the main threats to stability in the Middle East. Neighboring Arab monarchies fear the emergence of a nuclear arsenal from Tehran, but Israel, of course, should be most afraid of all. The Islamic Republic and the Jewish State are mortal enemies at this historical stage. Tel Aviv enjoys US patronage and secretly, in violation of all international norms, has already created a nuclear arsenal, the presence of which does not confirm or deny. According to some estimates, the IDF may have 150 to 200 warheads. The emergence of nuclear weapons from Tehran would radically change the balance of power in the Middle East, which its enemies are doing in every possible way. Israeli special services are killing Iranian physicists involved in the research program without investigation and trial, and the United States regularly makes it clear that it is ready for a military scenario.

However, so far the Islamic Republic has no atomic bomb, and its nuclear program is officially peaceful. However, the facts are such that Iranian scientists are already very close to creating a nuclear bomb. The so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) allowed Tehran to enrich uranium to 3,67%, but after the Israeli assassination of the famous Iranian physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the enrichment increased to 20%. And then, in response to a cyberattack on the Natanz nuclear facility, which is attributed to the Mossad, the Islamic Republic promised to bring the uranium enrichment level to 60%. And she did it, according to the IAEA reports.

This has changed a lot. The threshold level for the creation of weapons-grade uranium is 90%. As experts explain, having learned to enrich uranium to 60%, the Iranians have done 95% of all the preliminary work that is necessary to bring the enrichment level to the desired 90%. Consequently, there was only one small step left in Tehran's hands before the first nuclear bomb. And it is possible that it has already been done, since it is fraught with boasting of such successes.

War with Iran?

It is clear that the Israelis and their American allies cannot allow this to happen. But what can they do? Kill another scientist? To carry out an air raid on a nuclear facility in the Islamic Republic? Will this stop Tehran or, on the contrary, induce it to acquire its own nuclear arsenal even faster in order to enter the "club of the untouchables"? As we can see, the previous actions of the Mossad, aimed at stopping it or slowing it down, only led to the acceleration of the military direction of this scientific program.

Then what, war? Yes, the United States can, according to a tried and tested scenario, form a coalition, which will include NATO allies, Arab monarchies and Israel, but their goal will be very difficult. Tehran has a large, well-armed, trained and motivated army. Many Iranians have gained real combat experience in Syria. Iran has tanks, artillery with MLRS, aviation, air defense systems, medium-range missiles, and much more. These are not savages with bows at all, they can firmly give back and thoroughly thin out the ranks of the invaders. Are the Americans and their allies ready for the expected losses? And what will they do, even after winning? Are they occupying a country with 80 million people who will hate them and start a guerrilla war?

Khuzestan gambit

However, there is one option that is quite acceptable for them. The "Achilles heel" of Iran is the province of Khuzestan. Ironically, the dominant population in this region is not Iranians, but ethnic Arabs, for which it is also called "Arabistan". At the same time, it is here that the main oil and gas reserves of the Islamic Republic are concentrated. In 2019, another unusually rich oil field was discovered in Khuzestan, estimated at 53 billion tons. Thanks to water resources and fertile soils, agriculture is developed in this province. The problem for Tehran is that separatist sentiments are very popular here. Local Arabs, like our brothers-Ukrainians, believe that “the Iranians ate all their bacon,” and without them the Khuzestanis will live happily ever after. (This pun is not intended to offend anyone's religious feelings.) During the last war with Iraq, the separatists maintained contact with Saddam Hussein's regime. There is the Khuzestan Liberation Front.

In general, having lost Iran of this strategically important region, all of its economy, already suffering from Western sanctions, will collapse overnight. Then he will definitely have no time for a nuclear bomb. Another big headache for Tehran is that it will be extremely difficult to defend Khuzestan. It borders on Iraq, from where the interventionist troops can be transferred by land, and goes to the Persian Gulf, where the US and British AUG navies with their "unnecessary aircraft carriers" can be deployed, which will support the Allied amphibious assault on the coast from the air.

And I must say that the situation in Khuzestan is already ripe for such scenarios. Due to the abnormal prolonged heat of 50 degrees and a multiple reduction in the level of precipitation, reservoirs dried up and the harvest died. Disruptions began in the operation of hydroelectric power plants, which led to power outages for consumers. Water scarcity and bleak prospects have led disgruntled people to take to the streets in large numbers to protest. A separatist group called the "Arab Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz" has become more active. The police began to use weapons on the demonstrators; there are already casualties on both sides. To remove the acuteness of the problem, Tehran decided to send tanks with drinking water to Khuzestan.

There are all the prerequisites for the "concerned world community" represented by the United States and its allies to intervene in the situation with the violation of basic human rights in Iran. It is enough to throw a match, and Khuzestan will blaze, and there it is not far before the introduction of foreign troops. There is no need for the Americans to conquer and take control of all of Iran, which is almost impossible. But Khuzestan alone, with the Arab population disloyal to Tehran and its hydrocarbon reserves, the coalition is quite capable of. If Iran loses this strategically important region, it will cease to be a self-sufficient state and will be able to forget about its nuclear ambitions.