Leaving Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States puts Iran in a difficult situation

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They say you should be wary of your own desires, for they can come true. One of the strategic goals pursued by Iran in the Middle East is the complete and final withdrawal of American troops. If Tehran still has to wait indefinitely with the Arab monarchies, then with neighboring Iraq everything can really work out, and the death of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani will not be in vain. However, Washington, by its mere decision to withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, creates much greater problems for the Islamic Republic than the mere inconvenience of their unwelcome presence.

The United States and its allies invaded Iraq in 2003 after falsely accusing Saddam Hussein's regime of developing weapons of mass destruction. Thanks to its total superiority in striking power and complete air domination, the Western coalition easily defeated the Iraqi army. From the US side, almost 160 thousand troops were involved, another 45 thousand were sent by the British. Baghdad was taken, control over the largest cities in Iraq was established in just three weeks. President Hussein was overthrown, tried by the American occupiers and hanged in 2006. Naturally, no one found any weapons of mass destruction, for the sake of "searches" for which there was a military invasion, no one found, but Iraqi oil passed into the hands of Western corporations, and about 90 thousand ancient objects of cultural and historical value were exported from the country to the United States, and to this day day 90% of them have not been returned to official Baghdad.



Even sadder, the result of this atrocity on the part of the Americans and their henchmen was the appearance in Iraq of the now banned terrorist group ISIS ("Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant"). The military invasion itself destabilized the situation in the country, but the occupying authorities further exacerbated it by disbanding the ruling Baath Party and the former Iraqi army. About 90 thousand officers and even more ordinary servicemen were out of work, and at the same time the former party functionaries. It was they who became the backbone for the future terrorist group ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation), noted at one time the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov:

Now the most effective militants in ISIS are former officers of Saddam Hussein's army, this is recognized by everyone, who were simply thrown out into the street and who had nothing to live on. I am not making excuses for them, but they went to ISIS not at the call of their hearts, but simply out of financial need.

Is it any wonder how unexpectedly powerful was the subsequent onslaught of this structure, which in 2014 was able to swiftly take control of vast territories in Iraq and Syria, comparable in size to an average European state? The formal reason for the return to Iraq and the SAR as part of Operation Unwavering Determination for the United States and its satellites was the fight against ISIS. Also, to fight the "Islamic State" and a number of other terrorist groups, Moscow deployed its aerospace forces to help Damascus in 2015. It is worth noting that both the American and Russian leaders independently reported on the defeat of ISIS.

Indeed, under the joint onslaught of the Kurdish-backed Western coalition and the Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance, the group was defeated in the sense that both of its proclaimed "capitals" in Mosul and Raqqa fell, as well as all other settlements held by militants. The attempt to create an Islamist "quasi-state" failed. But can we talk about the complete and final destruction of this terrorist organization, or has it just returned to a network, underground structure? During the period of the rise, ISIS spread its "branches" in Libya and Afghanistan, and there were enough ambitions for the whole world "Caliphate". And what will happen now that the United States has announced the next withdrawal of troops?

Earlier, the Americans decided to leave Afghanistan ahead of schedule, which they had occupied for nearly 20 years, which led to the activation of the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation). The Islamists have already occupied almost the entire territory of the country, and the fall of Kabul seems only a matter of time. It is not yet clear what role the "Afghan branch" of ISIS will play in this redistribution, which has not yet said its word, but will undoubtedly do so. And now Iraq. US troops have also pledged to leave the country by December 2021. Their number is not so large, it is about 2,5 thousand people: pilots, equipment, instructors training local military, special forces, etc. The Pentagon's presence is rather symbolic, but now it must end. And what will happen next?

For my part, I would like to wish the Afghan and Iraqi peoples prosperity and happiness, but this is hardly included in the plans of the strategists from Washington. The government abhors a vacuum, which is clearly seen in the example of Afghanistan, where all possible living space is occupied by the armed Taliban. It is highly likely that something similar could happen in Iraq. Socialeconomic and the religious problems that led to the emergence of ISIS have not disappeared. With the departure of the last helicopter of the US Armed Forces, one can expect the beginning of a new redistribution of spheres of influence in Iraq, in which veterans of previous wars will take part. ISIS may move from the network structure of its existence to another attempt to create its own “quasi-state”. Will it operate under the same name? It is highly unlikely, since the name is already scaring children around the world, and the appearance of the black banners will provoke another military intervention campaign. A "rebranding" seems more realistic, when all the same people will again appear on the stage, but under a new name, positioning themselves as a national liberation movement fighting against the puppet pro-Western government.

Why do the Americans need all this? Why do they start all these processes in a second circle? Yes, then, to create gigantic problems for their main competitors. Afghanistan, where the Taliban have raised their heads, is a threat to both China and Russia. ISIS 2.0 in Iraq and its branch in Afghanistan are a double threat to Iran from both the West and the East.
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  1. +5
    10 August 2021 12: 10
    Are Americans at war with ISIS? this is a revelation ... they breed them, train and heal them at their bases, and also transport them from one hot spot to another. Who will be Israel's ally against Syria if the US leaves?
    1. -6
      10 August 2021 13: 52
      Quote: Just Cat
      Who will be Israel's ally against Syria if the US leaves?

      The Americans are leaving Iraq and Afgan, not Israel.
      In general, the Jewish state itself has proved its viability - many wanted to "throw it into the sea", but no one succeeded.
      1. +5
        10 August 2021 17: 00
        A Zionist state without the United States is zero. Billion dollar handouts and arms deliveries from the United States have raised a rude and arrogant fool. Plus, the Israelis' eternal speculation about their suffering gave the West moral support. But the best times are over.
  2. +4
    10 August 2021 14: 18
    Did the Sshasovites enter Afghanistan out of a desire to help Iran? As they entered and exited, Iran is in the hands of - there will be no military bases near the border, which means it will secure the possible direction of the invasion.
    The psychosis with the withdrawal of the Sshasov army to invade Afghanistan is artificially inflated, which only raises the significance and authority of the United States.
    Having come to power, the Taliban will deal with internal affairs, therefore they honestly assured the PRC and the Russian Federation about non-interference in the affairs of neighboring state entities. Moreover, they are interested in cooperation with China and the Russian Federation. There is practically no interest of the Russian Federation in Afghanistan, unlike the PRC with the NSP project, and therefore the first violin in stabilizing Afghanistan in the hands of the PRC.
  3. +2
    10 August 2021 15: 49
    The union during the time of King Daoud in Afghanistan built a lot. Schools, hospitals, Salang tunnel.