What China will offer Russia instead of a defense alliance

On the territory of northern China, joint exercises of the RF Armed Forces and the PLA have begun, in which more than 13 thousand servicemen from both sides, Su-30SM fighters and about 500 units of various armored vehicles will be involved. Western media immediately reacted to this event, expressing in the spirit of Moscow and Beijing forging an anti-American alliance. Sounds promising, but don't they pass their phobias overseas as reality?

A hypothetical military alliance between Russia and China is probably the main horror story that people like to frighten the Western inhabitant with. Indeed, if we conditionally add up the military, industrial and resource potential of the two countries, we will get a colossus that can defeat both the United States and the NATO bloc as a whole. At times we are very fond of speculating on this topic in the style of “we and China” there “we pile on everyone”. The problem is that Beijing itself does not need this at all, and there are several reasons for this.



At first, economics The PRC and the United States remain closely linked, and the Chinese are not interested in a complete break with the Americans. Arguing, bargaining, moderately conflicting is, yes, but to give a reason to lower the "iron curtain" in front of you, entering into a real military alliance with Russia ... No, this is the most extreme option, which Beijing will try to avoid to the last.

Secondly, an equal union is possible between partners of equal strength. Unfortunately, the Russian economy is several times smaller than the Chinese one, as well as the pace of rearmament and construction of the navy for the PLA. The military-industrial complex of the People's Republic of China either cleverly copies, or independently develops and produces weapons that are interesting to him. We are still stronger in the nuclear component, which is undoubtedly very important, but China is capable of independently waging a modern war using conventional methods. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Chinese Navy is already an absolutely real threat to the US Navy.

Thirdly, it will not sound very pleasant, but do not forget about some of the features of the Chinese mentality. For them, the Celestial Empire is the Middle Empire, and everyone around is just barbarians, hostile or friendly. We Russians are now "friendly barbarians" for them, and nothing more.

From what has been said, the following conclusion can be drawn: Beijing does not need a military alliance with Moscow, and the PRC will not take on any real obligations of a defensive nature. For China, Russia is interesting as a reliable rear, ready to supply all types of natural resources at a reasonable price, as well as some samples equipment and weapons, invented by intelligent Russian engineers. It will also be unacceptable for the Chinese leadership if suddenly some ultra-liberals come to power in Russia, who will turn our country to the West, and we ourselves will become a partner for the NATO bloc. It sounds crazy, but is it really that incredible? In other words, it is beneficial for both the United States and China that Russia does not enter into any military alliances with the opposing side. Then, the question arises, why do we need these joint exercises with China, which have recently become more frequent?

The correct answer will be the most practical attitude towards Russia from our eastern partners. Let us pay attention to the time and place of joint operational-tactical maneuvers called "Sibu / Interaction-2021", the goals of which are outlined by the RF Ministry of Defense as follows:


The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of the PRC was chosen as the venue. It is located in the very north of the country, and, which is very symbolic, the Great Wall of China passes through it, which once separated the Celestial Empire from the barbarians. The area is considered sparsely populated, deserted and mountainous. To the west of it lies the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Beijing's main headache in the region. This point is considered potentially the most explosive, especially now, after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation). From the Russian side, servicemen of the Trans-Baikal Territory took part in the exercises. After the Americans left Afghanistan, much was said about how China would respond to the new threat. Perhaps the Sibu / Interaction-2021 exercise, dedicated to the "landing" and "capture of enemy ground targets", can be considered the answer. Beijing demonstrates that it is ready to cooperate with Moscow to eliminate the potential threat to its sovereignty, both at close and distant approaches.

But that is not all. Note that the Russian-Chinese maneuvers coincided in time with the American exercises in the Pacific Ocean, about which we in detail told previously. The stated goal of the Pentagon was to scare the PRC and the Russian Federation with the capabilities of the US Navy and the US Marine Corps to conduct an effective offensive war of the modern type. Beijing, in turn, demonstrates that, if necessary, it will be able to attract the Russian Ministry of Defense to help. It all looks like it's not us, but the Chinese themselves are ready to hide behind us.