Islamist Threat: Russia Forced to Start a Counter Expansion in Central Asia

The swift and early withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan is commonly referred to in the domestic media as flight and defeat. Alas, if you look carefully and calmly, it turns out that this is just another strategic move by the United States in a new "Cold War" against Russia and China. And the move is very effective. To date, the Taliban terrorist group, banned in the Russian Federation, has already seized more than 80% of the territory of this country under its control. There is every reason to talk about the re-establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan". What does this mean for the entire region of Central Asia, China and Russia?

First, a few words must be said about the Taliban itself. It is an Islamist armed group that already seized power in Afghanistan in the mid-nineties and ruled it until 2001. This organization is recognized as terrorist by the UN Security Council and the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. The Taliban ideology is based on such a trend of Islam as ashharism. This means that anyone who disagrees with him is considered lost and subject to persecution. For example, in 2001, the Taliban destroyed many non-Muslim monuments in Afghanistan, which caused an extremely negative attitude towards themselves throughout the world, including in Muslim countries. The Taliban established Sharia norms and strictly monitored their implementation, opposed women to work and study, and appeared in public places with an open face. They banned television and the Internet, music and fine arts, computers and chess, drinking alcohol and white shoes. All men were required to wear beards of a certain length. And now practically the whole country has again found itself in the power of the Taliban.



The key question is, what will the Taliban do next, build their ideal Islamic world in a single Afghanistan, or will they feel dizzy with success and move on to their “lost neighbors”? Recall that this state borders simultaneously with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, China and India (the disputed state of Kashmir). In other words, radical Islamists face the road immediately to the three worst enemies of the United States: China, Iran and Russia through Central Asia. With one move of its own with the withdrawal of troops, Washington created a bunch of potential problems for Beijing, Tehran and Moscow. For this reason alone, the departure of the Americans cannot be called a complete defeat. Let's see in general terms what kind of problems the Taliban can create for all of them.

Currently, representatives of the group are in Moscow, where negotiations are underway on our further coexistence with them. Obviously, the Taliban offer guarantees that they will not carry out external expansion, in exchange for recognizing their power. It should be reminded that in the past, the Taliban was recognized only by the UAE, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Probably, at this stage, the risk of direct aggression by Islamists against neighboring countries is not so great. The Taliban first need to take the country under their full control, purge the dissent and strengthen their power, as well as legalize themselves as much as possible in the eyes of the world community. For this reason, it is hardly worth expecting the border crossing by armed bearded men in the very near future. However, there is a different kind of danger.

The war in Iraq and Syria has shown that there are a large number of supporters of the ideas of radical Islam in the region who are ready to "get off the couch", take up arms and go to a distant country to fight for their fellow believers. Many of them were found, for example, in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Taliban's success in Afghanistan could trigger internal turmoil in the former Soviet Central Asian republics, especially if supported from outside. Subsequently, if a conflict between the official authorities and local radical Islamists begins in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, brothers in faith from Afghanistan may come to their rescue. This is essentially religious fundamentalism, which requires external expansion. This means only one thing: even successful negotiations with the Taliban on the delimitation of spheres of influence will be only temporary. This is only a postponement of the almost inevitable future problems.

Afghanistan under the Taliban is a time bomb, and there can be a lot of people willing to detonate it. Yes, bearded, battle-hardened militants can go in a conditional northern direction: to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and further to Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. This is all close, representatives of blood-related peoples live there. For Russia, this expansion poses a terrible threat. But with exactly the same success, the Taliban can go south, crossing the road to China. The most interesting thing is that not only the Americans, but also other external players can push them in this direction.

As you know, Beijing's foreign trade, as well as imports of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, directly depend on the South China Sea. Realizing its vulnerability, the PRC is investing colossal funds in the construction of the overland "New Silk Road", and Pakistan is an important part of this transport corridor. In the southwest of this country, not far from the Strait of Hormuz, there is the port of Gwadar, which is of great interest to China, since it connects Central and South Asia with the Middle East. The PRC has invested billions of dollars in the construction of roads and other infrastructure connecting its largest industrial centers with Pakistani Gwadar. This port was named "New Dubai", which was terribly disliked by the UAE. In the most popular city of the Emirates, the largest Middle East port Jebel Ali Jeff Ali and the port of Rashid are located. Arab Dubai is the most powerful regional logistics center, making a great contribution to the economy UAE, but the development of the Pakistani-Chinese "New Dubai" poses a serious threat to it.

It is generally accepted that the United States is the main instigator of the conflict in the region, but this is not entirely true. In pursuit of its interests, the UAE began to support the Pakistani opposition, and also restored and intensified ties with India, which also opposes the "New Dubai". And here in Afghanistan, too, the government changed. Recall that the United Arab Emirates was among the three countries that recognized the Taliban last time. Also in the press you can find information about the support of the Taliban from the UAE. It turns out that there is a real anti-Chinese alliance that is directly interested in setting fire to the situation in Pakistan on the New Silk Road.

And what is left for Moscow and Beijing? Obviously, it is necessary to unite efforts to stop the expansion of radical Islamism in a timely manner. For Russia, the re-arrival of the Taliban is not only a threat, but also an opportunity for the former Soviet Central Asian republics to unite in the face of an external threat. This can be done through the CSTO, turning this “paper” organization into a real regional defense structure, bringing back Uzbekistan and inviting Turkmenistan, and creating an effective and powerful Collective Reaction Force. Like us told earlier, the military alliance may be followed by economic integration within the EAEU and positive political transformations in Central Asia. But this must be done quickly, until the vacant position of the defender is taken by other nimble players, like Turkey.