How Russia can benefit from the Afghan crisis

Washington's decision to withdraw NATO troops from Afghanistan will have very serious consequences for the entire Central Asian region. It is easy to guess that the United States is doing this with an indirect intent to create another point of military tension near the borders of both of its main competitors, the PRC and the Russian Federation. But, as you know, any crisis promises not only trouble, but also opens a certain window of opportunity. Can Moscow avoid yet another "afghanization" and derive some benefit from what has happened?

Militants of the Taliban movement banned in the Russian Federation daily take more and more territories from the army of the official government in Kabul. If this dynamic continues, the day is not far off when a geopolitical reality will come in which Moscow will have to accept some fundamental political decisions on the legal status of this structure, which can become a full-fledged master of Afghanistan. The key question is what will happen next, will the Taliban go to Central Asia? The leadership of the Islamist group on the eve assured that neighboring Tajikistan need not be afraid of this:




True, there have been no separate clarifying statements about the prospects for further relations of the Taliban with other countries in the region, in particular, with Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as well as with the Russian Federation. Apparently, in Dushanbe they prefer to blow on the water, since the small Tajik army has begun the process of mobilization. Up to 20 thousand reservists are going to be recruited into it. Given its extremely low combat capability, it will not be able to provide much resistance to the Taliban, hardened in many years of battles with Western invaders and invaders. Realizing this, the President of Tajikistan decided to ask for help through the CSTO. And what does this whole situation mean for Russia?

On the one hand, the Americans really created an additional headache for Moscow. Within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty, Russia is currently holding consultations with Dushanbe and Bishkek, as well as negotiations with Tashkent. If the Taliban or militants of another banned terrorist group try to cross the borders of Tajikistan and go further, they will actually have to be met by our soldiers from the 201st military base, the largest of the foreign ones at the RF Ministry of Defense. As if the war in Syria is not enough for us and the many years of standing on the border with Ukraine and the NATO bloc, where the most combat-ready units of the RF Armed Forces are concentrated!

On the other hand, the Afghan crisis simultaneously opens up certain opportunities for Russia that can be tried to take advantage of.

At first, nothing unites as much as the image of a single external enemy. It is not yet known who will win the final victory in Afghanistan, the Taliban or the even more dangerous and banned in the Russian Federation terrorist group ISIS, which will undoubtedly reappear there soon. In any case, a center of radical Islamism and its potential expansion will be formed on the border of the former Soviet republics. This gives Moscow a chance to prove that the CSTO is not a “paper”, but a real defensive alliance, improving its reputation after the events in Nagorno-Karabakh.

SecondlyHaving gathered around itself a real regional military coalition, which can include not only CSTO members, for example, Uzbekistan or even Turkmenistan, Russia can thereby prevent the arrival and consolidation of the United States and Turkey in Central Asia. Recall that these countries are showing great interest in the deployment of their military and related infrastructure on the territory of the former Soviet Central Asian republics. Ankara undoubtedly sees in this whole situation an opportunity to gain a foothold in the region, where it is trying to promote its project of the Turkic-speaking “Great Turan” with its united army. The Kremlin should not only "carefully observe the situation", but also have time to hurry up, being the first to agree on the use of air bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan for the needs of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Thirdly, the strengthening of Moscow's positions in the CSTO in the region may also entail certain political and economic changes. Usually, within the framework of "soft power", educational, cultural and business programs come first, and only then military bases. In this case, everything can happen the other way around. As a gratitude for military assistance, official Dushanbe and Tashkent could reconsider their approach to their program of de-Russification of everything and everyone in their countries, as well as think about joining the Eurasian Economic Union. If the Russians are ready to fight for you, then you will answer them with all due respect, right?

In other words, the "Afghan crisis" promises us a lot of problems, but also provides some opportunities that we can try to take advantage of or not take advantage of.