Baltic Stream and the Trimorie project: Germany begins to oppose Poland

In early June, it became known that Denmark had blocked a permit previously issued to Poland for the construction of the Baltic Pipe undersea gas pipeline. At the same time, the official Warsaw, for its part, does not abandon construction and promises that the pipeline will be put into operation by October 1, 2022. History repeats itself one to one with the Russian "Nord Stream-2". What is rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark, that Copenhagen is constantly "changing shoes", throwing and substituting investors for European energy projects?

Let us remind you that Poland was going to start receiving up to 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Norway through the new pipeline. The project is being implemented jointly by the country's national GTS operator Gaz-System and the Danish gas transmission system operator EnergiNet. Earlier, Copenhagen issued a construction permit, and even Russian Gazprom did not interfere with Warsaw's initiative, although it had the opportunity to do so, since the Baltic Pipe crosses Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 at the bottom of the Baltic. Moscow could create problems for Poland, but did not do it, clearly counting on constructive negotiations on the gas issue. Interestingly, it was not the Russians who put a spoke in the wheels of the Poles, but their partners in the European Union, the Danes. And this raises a lot of questions. Various versions are being circulated in the press and the blogosphere trying to explain this decision. Let's try to consider the main ones.

Ecology?

Recall that Copenhagen has been pulling rubber with a permit for Nord Stream 2 for years, hiding behind a fashionable environmental agenda. Allegedly, the new gas pipeline could damage something, where it failed to damage the first "Nord Stream". Political the motivation of Denmark's actions was obvious, and in the end, the Kingdom still gave the go-ahead for the laying of a pipeline in its waters. In the case of the Polish project, the Baltic Pipe goes to both of our "Streams" perpendicularly, from north to south. Claims are being made against the construction of the Everdrup compressor station in the eastern part of the island of Zealand. It turns out that this may pose some kind of threat to "the provision of high-quality living conditions [for animals], including muskets (hazel dormouse), wood mice and bats."

Well, this is all Danish territory, they have the right to sincerely worry about their musters and bats. EnergiNet promptly submitted a new application, which should take into account all the wishes of the authorities and environmentalists. If it passes, then the problem really wore technicalrather than political.

Kremlin arm?

The second version is of a conspiracy nature, and Russia is at risk of being extreme again. Some researchers are inclined to see the Kremlin's intrigues behind the problems of the Baltic Pipe. He allegedly tries to kill two birds with one stone at once. First, to create an artificial shortage of gas and thereby force Warsaw to conclude a new long-term agreement on its purchase through the Yamal-Europe pipeline. Let us remind you that Poland has made a bet on the construction of LNG terminals and the purchase of American liquefied gas, as well as on Norwegian gas from the Baltic Pipe. Secondly, to encourage the Polish authorities to complete the construction of the Zharnovets NPP with the help of Rosatom, in order to increase their dependence on Moscow.

However, these logical constructions have one big drawback. The fact is that the same Denmark failed Warsaw with the Baltic Pipe, which had been dragging its permission for Nord Stream-2 for three years earlier. Three years, Karl! This means only one thing: the Kremlin simply does not have a direct lever of pressure on Copenhagen, so it is not able to do bad things to the Poles through the Danes, even with a strong desire.

The hand of Berlin?

At first glance, it may seem strange, but there is a certain rationale in this assumption. Poland is actively developing its the economytrying to catch up with the German. Politically, it positions itself as a loyal ally of the United States in Europe. Warsaw opposes the Russian-German gas pipeline "Nord Stream-2", while it itself has relied on American LNG and the "Baltic Pipe". And then there was a new integration project called "Trimorye", about which we told earlier. In essence, this is the reincarnation of “Intermarium” by Józef Pilsudski, who this time is supported in the United States. 12 countries of Eastern and Central Europe can enter Trimorie at once, and Poland will play the main role in it. Within its framework, a unified gas transportation infrastructure should be created, going from north to south, from the Baltic to the Mediterranean seas, where the receiving LNG terminals will operate. Warsaw, which has concluded long-term contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas, will objectively act as a representative of American interests and make good money on the resale of regasified LNG.

It is obvious that the united "Trimorie" represents an informal opposition to Western Europe and a threat to the hegemony of Germany and France in the Old World. We also note that some progress with Denmark on the Nord Stream 2 issue from Gazprom began only after explicit intervention from Berlin. Germany is the main trading partner of the Kingdom and has real leverage over it, unlike Russia. It turns out that because of the problems of the Baltic Pipe, the ears of not President Vladimir Putin, but rather Chancellor Angela Merkel, may stick out.