It is increasingly difficult for Russia to avoid the scenario of the introduction of troops into Ukraine


Over the past few weeks, there has been an active transfer of Russian troops and armored vehicles to the Ukrainian border. This is done emphatically demonstratively in the daytime without the slightest attempt to hide. It would be naive not to notice the relationship with the build-up of the Ukrainian military grouping in Donbass, aimed at the DPR and LPR, which Moscow has promised not to abandon. But will Russian soldiers officially step into the territory of a neighboring country, and if so, how far can they go?


For understanding and adequate forecasting, it is necessary to try to understand the motivation of all parties to this conflict.

What does Donbass need? To be finally left alone. What does Ukraine need? The maximum program consists in the forceful return of the DPR and LPR according to the “Karabakh scenario”. The minimum program allows the return of at least part of their territory, several settlements, which in Kiev will be proclaimed as a "great victory" and "a brilliant victory of Ukrainian weapons over Muscovites."

What does Russia need? To maintain the status quo, when the DPR and LPR are not moving either here or there, covering Crimea, and manage to complete the construction of Nord Stream 2 in order to be able to get off the “needle” of the Ukrainian gas transit. What does the West need? The West, or rather, in this matter, the United States, which is behind Ukraine, needs to bring the war in Donbass to such a level of ferocity and losses in order to force the Kremlin to directly send Russian troops to hold the DPR and LPR. This is necessary in order to introduce another package of tough sanctions against Russia, up to and including crippling, to close or take full control of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which we have already discussed. told earlier.

Now let's see what the parties to the conflict are ready to do to achieve their goals. Over the past seven years, Kiev has carried out the reform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, multiplying their number, increased the level of organization and controllability. At present, two large shock fists are aimed at Donetsk and Luhansk. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak, the DPR and LPR today have a total of 28 thousand armed defenders. Let's face it, the forces are unequal, Kiev has an advantage, and the two unrecognized republics will definitely not survive on their own. In the event of a large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian army, they will need Russian help. And you can't get off with the so-called "north wind" and "military trade" alone.

The problem is that it is precisely this scenario that the Kremlin clearly would like to avoid in order not to fall into the American trap. The Russian leadership is obviously trying to "shake" Kiev, demonstrating its readiness, if necessary, to stop the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or even to launch a counteroffensive. For this, our troops are being pulled together to the border with Ukraine in the Rostov, Bryansk and Voronezh regions. In the southern direction along the Crimean bridge are columns with armored vehicles. For the needs of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, all railway platforms in the vicinity were seized in order to transport tanks and self-propelled artillery installations on them. This movement is explained by the usual large-scale exercises, which, as a rule, take place twice a year, in spring and autumn. However, in recent years, sudden checks of the combat readiness of the RF Armed Forces, when entire districts were raised, became the norm.

According to the aforementioned head of the Ukrainian General Staff Khomchak, Russia has concentrated 28 battalion tactical groups on the border. Is it a lot or a little? How to say. It is definitely not enough to reach Kiev, Odessa or Lviv. If we add up these forces with those that Donetsk and Lugansk have, in Donbass we get an approximate parity with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. That is, neither side will have a decisive advantage for convincingly defeating the enemy. Russian troops are a kind of "reserve" of the DPR and LPR, which should become a guarantor against defeat by Ukraine. Moreover, this is a military reserve, which the Kremlin, for political reasons, with which we started, would clearly prefer not to use, but to limit itself to imitation of determination.

Another problem follows from this alignment. Another side of the conflict, the United States, does not care at all how many Ukrainians and Russians will die there. It is important for Washington to force Moscow to directly send its troops to Donbass. And this can only be done by a large-scale and bloody war of attrition, when the forces of both Ukraine and the DPR and LPR will burn out in a fiery furnace without counting. The Joe Biden administration can achieve this by sending the Armed Forces of increasingly modern and deadly types of weapons, the help of military advisers and intelligence data. A war of this type can last not six weeks, as in Nagorno-Karabakh, but, for example, six months of continuous fierce fighting.

If Washington decides to provoke the Kremlin into direct entry of Russian troops, it will support the armed conflict to the last Ukrainian.
  • Author:
  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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  1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
    Alexndr p (Alexander) April 6 2021 15: 53
    0
    which we have already talked about earlier.

    Author: Sergey Marzhetsky

    The author and his invisible brothers.

    Over the past seven years, Kiev has reformed the Armed Forces of Ukraine, multiplying their number, increased the level of organization and controllability.

    as? than? This is when the rogulya, after a cigarette, gave herself a line in the face? Or did the APU improve controllability by putting drug dealers under arms? And now, when the dealers are already in the unit, do not you need to make a leap into Sochi?

    Author, how many new weapons and military equipment did the Ukrainian army receive? And what did she get, after which her quality increased? Mortar "Hammer" is understandable, the success of the engineers' roguel. And what else? How many planes did the Ukrainian army receive more than the corps of Donbass?
  2. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) April 6 2021 16: 08
    +4
    Washington wants only one complete omnipotence over our world, as it was before, and it will stop at nothing to achieve this at any cost, because the whole world has seen all the defectiveness of this hegemon over the past year in all its "colors", up to kissing the feet of African Americans, and the most shameful presidential "elections" held, and in fact - "the king turned out to be naked", and there does not smell of any democracy, and then Russia began to raise its head, reviving and rearming the army, and claims a multipolar world , but Uncle Sam really does not want this, and he will go to any meanness and provocations to do with us, as he once did with his North American Indians, on whose hundreds of millions of lives he built his misanthropic empire, which he can save only in the event of the outbreak of a new big war, and even with such an impending economic crisis, which will be worse than the crisis of 1929-1939 ... Why are there so many NATO troops standing at our borders, and why are the Yankees dragging the Nazi nenka against us?
  3. Petya Bystrov Offline Petya Bystrov
    Petya Bystrov (Petya Bystrov) April 6 2021 16: 33
    +1
    Woe to the analyst, everything is bad. The situation may turn out like this, you never think of it in your best fantasies. It's good that you are not in the General Staff.
  4. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 6 2021 16: 35
    +2
    a package of harsh sanctions, including crippling

    Well, it was already, in 1941-1944, in Leningrad. The blockade was called.
    Father, rest in peace, served as a driver on the Road of Life. In the city shells and food, back the children.
  5. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 6 2021 16: 45
    +3
    It is increasingly difficult for Russia to avoid the scenario of the introduction of troops into Ukraine

    You can avoid it if you organize a military coup in Ukraine and put young officers, such as colonel majors, in the leadership. Colonel Gaddafi made life in Libya great after the coup, until NATO killed this country.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 6 2021 17: 19
      0
      if they wanted a coup, then these young "officers" would have been on the side of Donbass and they would have kept silent in Odessa.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Valentine Offline Valentine
        Valentine (Valentin) April 6 2021 17: 42
        +5
        On May 9, 2014, 56 policemen were killed in Mariupol while defending participants in a demonstration dedicated to Victory Day, and after that, there were massive arrests of pro-Russian activists, just as happened in Kharkiv.
        1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
          Alexndr p (Alexander) April 6 2021 17: 52
          +3
          well, the main thing is that the inhabitants of the outskirts have endured, in their favorite manner of khataskraynism
          to endure men (millions instead of men, more precisely) in Ukraine - on high.

          therefore they have what they have. And the sad president's Jew is forever and the nickname is the measure of Kiev forever. And the Galician cock's corner - for a standard for them and as an example to follow

          It is a pity that the suprun left, I would also wish her for centuries

          Well, so that they would bellow on the Move for centuries. I wish them too
        2. marciz Offline marciz
          marciz (Stas) April 10 2021 15: 26
          0
          The cops of Mariupol did not get their hands dirty, Eternal memory to them !!!!!!
  6. Tezcatlipoca Offline Tezcatlipoca
    Tezcatlipoca (Alexander) April 6 2021 20: 09
    0
    It’s bad if the Barmaley climb from the Afgan side. There are a lot of them there now, after Syria they are sitting idle. And the Abkhazians may declare war on Ukrein - that will be a pun :)
  7. Restless Sagittarius (Vladimir) April 6 2021 20: 18
    +4
    The duration of the war with Ukraine will directly depend on whether the Kremlin will fight in earnest, or launder money in the war, following the example of drunkard Yeltsin during the First Chechen War. Strikes on airfields and railway stations of the enemy will deprive him of the ability to transport him from abroad, strikes on warehouses of weapons, fuels and lubricants, medicines and foodstuffs will put his army and rear on the brink of survival, and strikes with volume-detonating ammunition on positions and reserves of the enemy army will hack any defense and will cause panic in the enemy's camp.
  8. Vlad Nemtsev Offline Vlad Nemtsev
    Vlad Nemtsev (Vlad Nemtsev) April 6 2021 20: 27
    +4
    Almost the entire composition of the armed forces of the DPR and LPR underwent retraining in Russia to manage modern, Russian models of military equipment. With any renewal of the conflict from Kiev, Donbass has all the necessary means to repel the attack. Support to Russia will be provided in the transfer of target designations and blocking of assistance to Kiev from the West, through tough, political messages, with the threat of creating a no-flight zone over the territory of the conflict, with the subsequent destruction of headquarters, to make decisions for a military invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia previously recalled the ambassador for consultations, which was a signal for the United States to escalate the military conflict in Ukraine. At the moment, Russia is ready to stop the Ukrainian conflict, even if a military solution is required.
  9. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 6 2021 21: 07
    -2
    If Putin put the interests of the Russian people and Russia above the "dough", then such questions would not arise. Our troops would have long been not only in Donbass, but also at the borders of Transnistria. I assure you that after the "first strike", all "show-off" stops. If the question was about protecting your family, children, would you think for a long time what to do? And if you think you are not a man, eh! Putin thinks for a long time.
    1. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
      assault 2019 (assault 2019) April 7 2021 07: 43
      +1
      Putin was not afraid to start the second Chechen war, to fight with Georgia
      for the Abkhazians and the Ossetians, he decided in a couple of days, but he has not been able to get together to defend the Russians in Donbas for seven years ...
      1. Roman Moskalenko (Roman Moskalenko) April 7 2021 09: 06
        +4
        Russians? and you open the referendum in 91, and take a look. how many then those Donbas considered themselves Russian. I will remind you, 15%. the rest screamed in a frenzy, "We will not feed the Muscovite."
        so why should we suddenly go there at breakneck speed? eat Square with a full spoon.
  10. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
    Kofesan (Valery) April 6 2021 23: 54
    +2
    In the 14th, there was no need to spectacle. Yes, and now it is not necessary. In general, it is never necessary. Cool head, sober calculation. And the goal! The goal is to defeat the enemy. There is no such goal - write "everything is lost" and get ready for defeat. And "our" elite has a different goal. And as simple as a broom: "So that we have everything, but we have nothing for it"

    That's all, perhaps, you need to know about past and future battles.
  11. aquarius580 Offline aquarius580
    aquarius580 April 7 2021 01: 26
    -5
    Why does Ukraine even need to seize this 200 by 70 km territory with several million disloyal population and a completely destroyed economy? There is no logic in the article. The population of ORDLO is millions of votes for HLE. Does Kiev really need it?
  12. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) April 7 2021 11: 34
    -1
    Well, first, I would take the section from Izmail to the Dniester with access to Transnistria, thereby creating a "bridge" to connect with our units there. We will immediately cut off the "aid" from the independent Romania and will be able to destroy Deveselu, as violating the strategic balance. And take aim at the nato base in the port of Midia (113 km) if they decide to intervene.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 7 2021 15: 07
      +1
      what kind of assistance to Romania? Romania refused to finance Moldova, and Russia imposed taxes. Sandu now cannot hiccup or fart from indignation. thrown everywhere.
      1. Tektor Offline Tektor
        Tektor (Tektor) April 8 2021 10: 53
        0
        Maybe he just didn’t accurately put it ... "Help" NATO (read the United States) from the territory of Romania.
  13. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) April 7 2021 17: 23
    +4
    On the part of the Russian Federation, the movement of troops and exercises is just a clear warning. If they decide to calm down the "great ukrov", no one will bring any troops there to the slaughter. If, of course, the leadership of the Russian Federation and the RF Armed Forces have their heads in place. And I think that it is in place.
    The scenario is this:
    1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine go on the offensive or cross a kind of "red line" - mass deaths of civilians from shelling, etc.
    2. RF issues an open warning about the use of force
    3. On the territory of Ukraine (deployment of troops, places of decision-making, communications) a massive missile and bomb attack is delivered, including the latest types of non-nuclear weapons. Moreover, this blow should be of such strength and volume that
    a) paralyze and demoralize the Armed Forces of Ukraine almost instantly
    b) discourage everyone who theoretically wants to get involved in this particular conflict and in the conflict with Russia in general
    4.introduction of a no-fly zone over the whole of Ukraine
    5. Only then is it possible to bring in troops to clear the territories, etc. Moreover, each hotbed of the slightest resistance should be suppressed, if possible, without contact - from the air, from the ships of the Navy, etc.
  14. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) April 7 2021 21: 23
    +1
    But will Russian soldiers officially step into the territory of a neighboring country, and if so, how far can they go?

    Stupid rhetorical question - how long will the order be?

    Let's face it, the forces are unequal, Kiev has an advantage, and the two unrecognized republics will definitely not survive on their own.

    Lies number of times, curious on the basis of what introductory mamkin expert made such conclusions? Will there be any lousy facts or, as always, only the author's fantasies?

    In the event of a large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian army, they will need the help of the Russian

    Intelligence, electronic warfare, MLRS, OTRK and all this without violating the border of Khokhlyandiya

    Russia has concentrated 28 battalion tactical groups on the border. Is it a lot or a little? How to say. It is definitely not enough to reach Kiev, Odessa or Lviv.

    Lies number 2
    Even the forces of the DPR / LPR are enough for this, but they will not be enough to hold

    That is, neither side will have a decisive advantage to convincingly defeat the enemy.

    Lies number three
    Seryozha, no one will attack with shovel cuttings
    Material, technical, military and moral levels are incomparable from the word in general
    What the hell are you talking about?

    The Joe Biden administration can achieve this by sending the Armed Forces of increasingly modern and deadly types of weapons, the help of military advisers and intelligence data. This type of war may have been going on

    What kind of weapons are these? Will the 6th fleet be driven into the Sea of ​​Azov? Or strategists? Will give the Ukrainians nuclear weapons?)
  15. George Davydov Offline George Davydov
    George Davydov (Georgy Davydov) April 8 2021 15: 28
    0
    Read, quote:

    The United States absolutely does not care how many Ukrainians and Russians will die there. It is important for Washington to force Moscow to directly send its troops to Donbass

    and I remembered a certain Truman, who also expressed similar preferences. And then they should already ask a question to those who are tolerant of all inhabitants of the Western democratic and other world: you two wars in the last century were not enough to understand who got the maximum benefit from them? Do you want to help get more? And where is the consideration of people who consider themselves reasonable? Is this the reason - to be cannon fodder for lovers of big profits?
  16. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) April 10 2021 14: 15
    0
    Quote: Alexander P
    which we have already talked about earlier.

    Author: Sergey Marzhetsky

    The author and his invisible brothers.

    Over the past seven years, Kiev has reformed the Armed Forces of Ukraine, multiplying their number, increased the level of organization and controllability.

    as? than? This is when the rogulya, after a cigarette, gave herself a line in the face? Or did the APU improve controllability by putting drug dealers under arms? And now, when the dealers are already in the unit, do not you need to make a leap into Sochi?

    Author, how many new weapons and military equipment did the Ukrainian army receive? And what did she get, after which her quality increased? Mortar "Hammer" is understandable, the success of the engineers' roguel. And what else? How many planes did the Ukrainian army receive more than the corps of Donbass?

    I completely agree and personally for myself have already concluded that Marzhetsky is a Svidomo from Ukraine, who is a scout in the enemy's camp, fighting on the information front. He is very proud of himself that he delivers information to the Ukrainian side, which is like the purest mountain air, in the stench of Putin's propaganda. This is evidenced by the chosen pseudonym - Marzhetsky, a Polish surname, but Poland today is one of the most Russophobic countries. He would take a pseudonym - Glory of Heroes or Glory of Ukrainians, but he will be quickly figured out and no one will listen in the Russian environment, except for compatriots who come in large numbers to the aggressor. And I really want to show my involvement in the greatest nation, but you can't betray yourself, for a scout.
  17. Sasha Ivankov Offline Sasha Ivankov
    Sasha Ivankov (Sasha Ivanov) April 15 2021 12: 24
    +1
    If we do not return Ukraine, we will end up with both shame and war. Ukraine had to be taken back in 2014, and so this gadyushnik will poop for us forever. It's a pity that our president is not Stalin, but a rag.