How the United States can turn Nord Stream 2 against Russia itself


Political changes in Washington also entail a significant change economic US approaches. In particular, a light dawned at the end of the tunnel in front of the problematic Russian-German gas pipeline "Nord Stream-2". More and more authoritative sources in the Western press are talking about a compromise between the American and European elites. However, what looms in the future for Gazprom and Russia can hardly be called “beautiful far away”.


Psychologists identify five stages of accepting the inevitable. First comes the anger that falls on the one who says unpleasant things. It is followed by denial in the spirit of "it just can't be." Then comes the stage of bargaining, when there is hope for some kind of compromise in the "multi-move" style. It all ends with depression from the realization that it is impossible to really influence something and acceptance. As for those voiced in the recent ARTICLES prospects for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, then the domestic audience mainly demonstrates anger and denial. Believe me, this is not such a mockery, but just a call to be more adequate.

So, what do we have at the moment. Nord Stream 2 was built bypassing Ukraine at the same time as Turkish Stream in order to end Russia's dependence on Kiev for gas supplies to Europe once and for all. She, addiction, has already become the cause of two "gas wars", and at the end of 2019 the third almost began. But it didn't happen. Gazprom signed, as it seemed to its leadership, the last transit contract for 5 years with Naftogaz on conditions that were very unfavorable for our country. Obviously, at the same time, it was planned to launch Nord Stream 2021 in the first quarter of 2, and to start pumping gas to the European market through it, bypassing the Ukrainian GTS.

Alas, this whole simple plan just fell apart in the end. The leadership of the domestic monopolist for some reason naively decided that it would be able to play on an equal footing with the United States on their field in Europe, without having any real levers of pressure, except for an argument about Germany's need for its inexpensive gas. As a result, Washington first succeeded in extending the norms of the EU's Third Energy Package regarding Nord Stream 2, leaving one of its two pipes empty. Then President Donald Trump imposed sanctions, forcing the Swiss contractor to give up construction in progress. Since then, the gas pipeline has remained at the bottom of the Baltic. Gazprom is still unable to complete it on its own due to the new package of US sanctions. The project is being abandoned by all new European companies.

What conclusion can be drawn from this? As unpleasant as this may sound, the United States has clearly demonstrated that without their consent, Nord Stream 2 will not be able to take place and continue to work normally. What's next?

And then the most interesting thing. In the United States, the ruling team has changed, and now not only the respected German Wirtschaftswoche, but also the American Wall Street Journal, as well as the British Financial Times, write about the possibility of a certain compromise between Washington and Berlin. But the possible conditions for this compromise are unlikely to please Russia. One realistic compromise might look like this.

Gazprom is allowed to complete the construction of Nord Stream-2 and launch one of its two pipes within the framework of the Third Energy Package. Also, only one line of the first Nord Stream will be loaded at full capacity. At the same time, Russia assumes obligations to preserve Ukrainian transit after the expiration of a 5-year contract, guaranteed to pay at least 40 billion cubic meters per year. If necessary, Gazprom will be able to launch all volumes from above on bypass routes, since they go through Nezalezhnaya at higher tariffs.

What do the parties get? Europe maintains Ukrainian UGS facilities, which are needed for a smooth passage of peak consumption during abnormally cold winter seasons, and several pipeline systems at once to diversify supplies from Russia. These are the brand new Turkish and Nord Stream 2, as well as the dilapidated Ukrainian GTS, which will have to be repaired at the expense of transit tariffs, which Kiev will assign to Gazprom. Our "national property" will become the owner of overwhelming gas transmission capacities, since new volumes of "blue fuel" in that direction have nowhere to come from, they will have to be maintained at our own expense. At the same time, it will not be possible to simply take and abandon the Ukrainian GTS, or even then "attack Ukraine", as our supporters of any "cunning plans" sometimes naively reasoned.

The United States and the European Union are preparing some kind of legal mechanism that will be put into effect in such scenarios, and then the work of Nord Stream 2 will stop. Europe itself will not freeze either, since it has drawn certain conclusions after two "gas wars". A network of LNG receiving terminals has been built along the entire coastline, and a gas transportation infrastructure has been created between EU members. By the way, the expansion of the presence of American LNG in the European market as a guarantee of "energy security" may become one of the conditions for the compromise we are discussing.

The latter is a response to the arguments that the United States allegedly cannot "rewind" its anti-Russian sanctions, since this requires the adoption of a new law. Washington knows how to lobby the interests of its national business abroad, so if necessary, both Democrats and Republicans will amicably pass the necessary law. The Europeans will likewise accept, if necessary, amendments to their legislation. A compromise with the United States in the above configuration, or close to it, is much more profitable for them than humbly bowing to the Americans or, on the contrary, splitting up with them over Nord Stream 2. Of course, it is not a fact that everything will go exactly as described, variations in one direction or another are possible, but the general vector of development seems to be quite realistic.

If everything goes like this, it will mean a complete collapse of the entire Kremlin foreign policy in the Ukrainian direction since 2014.
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  1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
    Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 19 February 2021 18: 02
    +3
    At the same time, Russia undertakes to preserve Ukrainian transit after the expiration of a 5-year contract.

    Did someone say about this?
    And if he doesn't?

    And the LNG thing is where it is more expensive, and will go there. Proven this winter.
  2. 123 Online 123
    123 (123) 19 February 2021 18: 03
    +9
    Psychologists identify five stages of accepting the inevitable. First comes the anger that falls on the one who says unpleasant things. It is followed by denial in the spirit of "it just can't be." Then comes the stage of bargaining, when there is hope for some kind of compromise in the "multi-move" style. It all ends with depression from the realization that it is impossible to really influence something and acceptance.

    Go straight to the last stage. The gas pipeline will be completed.

    Nord Stream 2 was built bypassing Ukraine at the same time as Turkish Stream in order to end Russia's dependence on Kiev for gas supplies to Europe once and for all.

    This is not true. In addition to the Ukrainian route, there is another one, through Belarus and Poland. It is relatively less "problematic", but it also needs an alternative. In addition, delivery through the joint venture is elementary cheaper, a shorter route and savings on transit fees. This is conventional economics, optimization and reduction of production costs.

    The leadership of the domestic monopolist for some reason naively decided that it would be able to play on an equal footing with the United States on their field in Europe, without having any real levers of pressure, except for an argument about Germany's need for its inexpensive gas.

    At the same time, the leadership of the overseas hegemordor for some reason decided that it would be able to establish rules in the global oil and gas market without having any real levers of pressure on competitors, except for the argument about the need to rid Europe of energy dependence and the saga of the shale revolution. The result is known. The United States has neither shale gas nor a fleet to deliver it to Europe. They are physically incapable of replacing Russian gas. Just try to calculate how many gas carriers it will take. It should be something like a sea analogue of Erdogan's "living oil pipeline" in Syria or a column of fuel tankers that recently exploded on the Afghan border.

    Gazprom is still unable to complete it on its own due to the new package of US sanctions.

    Why? belay Gazprom is building it right now.

    What conclusion can be drawn from this? As unpleasant as this may sound, the United States has clearly demonstrated that without their consent, Nord Stream 2 will not be able to take place and continue to work normally.

    As much as it may surprise you, the United States has no leverage on Russia. The gas pipeline is being built and the Americans cannot fit it. All they can do is take advantage of Germany's dependence. now they are twisting her arms so that she would persuade Moscow to make concessions. But Merkel has no more leverage than Washington. Or will she say the magic word to Putin - please?

    At the same time, Russia assumes obligations to preserve Ukrainian transit after the expiration of a 5-year contract, guaranteed to pay at least 40 billion cubic meters per year.

    Russia has never said that it intends to completely abandon Ukrainian transit. a recent trend, increasing dependence of Ukraine on the supply of goods from Russia. Electricity, food, oil products from Lukashenka are all from Russian oil. It is only about reducing the volume of pumping and the impossibility of blackmailing by stopping transit. Now Ukraine will depend on Russian gas supplies. There is still no alternative to him, and there is nothing to put pressure on Moscow.

    Europe maintains Ukrainian UGS facilities, which are needed for a smooth passage of peak consumption during abnormally cold winter seasons, and several pipeline systems at once to diversify supplies from Russia.

    What kind of diversification are we talking about? For a quiet passage of peak consumption in abnormally cold winter seasons, it is sufficient to increase the pumping through the joint venture. To do this, you just need to make a temporary exception to the rules. This has already been done.

    as well as the dilapidated Ukrainian GTS, which will have to be repaired at the expense of transit tariffs, which Kiev will assign to Gazprom

    What kind of fright is this? They haven't laid them for 30 years, but now they will? Zelensky will look Putin in the eye (via video link) and say please? Volodya, you and I are tees, repair the pipe, and I'll give you a ticket to the concert? .. sad

    Our “national treasure” will become the owner of openly surplus gas transmission capacities, since new volumes of “blue fuel” in that direction have nowhere to come, which will have to be maintained at our own expense.

    How can Gazprom be forced to maintain and repair the Ukrainian pipe? Their tariff for pumping is much higher than through Poland, but no one is going to repair it. The US Ukrainian GTS is not needed. They don't need Russian gas in Europe at all. Since it did not work out, they will get rid of it, replacing it with their own, they will promote green energy.

    Europe itself will not freeze either, since it has drawn certain conclusions after two "gas wars". A network of LNG receiving terminals has been built along the entire coastline, and a gas transportation infrastructure has been created between EU members.

    And that is why they are now increasing purchases from Gazprom? I don't remember the exact numbers, somewhere in the range from 40 to 110% for the EU countries. There is nothing to upload to the terminals. The United States simply physically does not have gas, the rest of the suppliers are being transported to Asia. LNG can only be Russian, and that until the year-round LNG supplies along the Northern Sea Route to Asia are adjusted. The first test flight ended the other day.

    By the way, the expansion of the presence of American LNG in the European market as a guarantee of "energy security" may become one of the conditions for the compromise we are discussing.

    These are their problems. Let Biden promise Merkel mountains of gold. What does Russia have to do with it?

    If everything goes like this, it will mean a complete collapse of the entire Kremlin foreign policy in the Ukrainian direction since 2014.

    Considering the above, I strongly doubt it. All arguments are far-fetched assumptions with no real basis.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 19 February 2021 18: 19
      +6
      Owl and globe, the plot of this song
      My guitar will play ....))
      1. 123 Online 123
        123 (123) 19 February 2021 18: 20
        +2
        Biden and Merkel, they are honestly not a couple laughing
        1. Cherry Offline Cherry
          Cherry (Kuzmina Tatyana) 20 February 2021 06: 13
          +1
          And it doesn't matter - Merkel leaves in the fall.
          1. 123 Online 123
            123 (123) 20 February 2021 06: 22
            +3
            And it doesn't matter - Merkel leaves in the fall.

            And that's true. It is more important that yesterday they had to provide a list of German companies "penalties" and apparently did not. It looks like the Germans will be left without sanctions. That's all the negotiations.
            1. Cherry Offline Cherry
              Cherry (Kuzmina Tatyana) 20 February 2021 07: 18
              +2
              And SP2 is still without them. If Bloomberg is not lying.
              1. 123 Online 123
                123 (123) 20 February 2021 16: 06
                +2
                Yes, it seems that their prediction came true. I have not seen the published report of the Congress, but they seem to say there are no Germans there.
                https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-19/u-s-expected-to-leave-germans-out-of-next-nord-stream-sanctions
                Greetings to Ukrainian patriots laughing America is with us fellow The entire world community is for us fellow laughing Well, and the local funeral team of Gazprom smile To their deep regret, the giant survived and is doing well. crying
                Watching further, the show isn't over yet hi
    3. Cherry Offline Cherry
      Cherry (Kuzmina Tatyana) 20 February 2021 06: 18
      +1
      The article is just provocative.
      1. Pivander Offline Pivander
        Pivander (Alex) 20 February 2021 14: 30
        -1
        This "master" has no others. Sometimes there is a feeling that this marzhetskogo, the stream personally had. Moreover, in a European way, with all that it implies.
  3. Cherry Offline Cherry
    Cherry (Kuzmina Tatyana) 20 February 2021 06: 12
    +2
    as well as the dilapidated Ukrainian GTS, which will have to be repaired at the expense of transit tariffs, which Kiev will assign to Gazprom.

    Why on earth? Ukraine was not given, at one time Gazprom to buy it, and now let them repair it themselves.
  4. Dear sofa expert. 20 February 2021 21: 08
    +1
    Gazprom is allowed to complete the construction of Nord Stream-2 and put into operation one of its two pipes within the framework of the Third Energy Package. Also, only one line of the first Nord Stream will be loaded at full capacity.

    Where did this "bike" come from, about "one of the two pipes"?)

    The author himself delved into the meaning of what and how the “third energy package” regulates, and what are the powers of this document?