Rostislav Ischenko: Lukashenko may leave Russia no choice, and the Kremlin will send troops

For some reason, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko deliberately provokes an increase in protest moods in his own state, political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko said on the air of the YouTube channel PolitWera.

According to the expert, sooner or later Lukashenka will be stripped of power. Therefore, to prevent bloodshed in neighboring Belarus, the Kremlin will be forced to send Russian troops to its territory to stabilize the situation. Moscow will simply have no other choice.

Lukashenka constantly creates a cushion of protests, he pumps it up and radicalizes it. Sooner or later he may be swept away

- Ishchenko is sure.

To prevent the outbreak of violence, not just in a friendly, but in a Union state, Russia really will have no other choice but to send troops there.

- The expert added.

He drew attention to the fact that Lukashenka once spoke of his readiness to send the Belarusian army to Ukraine if the civil war spreads to its entire territory. Minsk then warned that it could go to the creation of a buffer zone on Ukrainian territory for its own safety. Therefore, NATO countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia can behave similarly, but in relation to Belarus itself. Destabilization will be just a pretext.

There is no legitimate government, there is a civil war. This is a threat to our borders, we create a security buffer

- Ischenko explained the possible reaction of Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga.

Note that recently Lukashenka сообщилthat he is ready to abandon the multi-vector approach under certain conditions.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 11: 28
    The stupidest decision is to send Russian troops to Belarus. It seems that the Russian Federation does not have the corresponding services of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, SVR and other organizations to solve problems, if such incompetent (recruited for other reasons), even if they use the US method, it successfully transforms former friends of the Russian Federation into enemies ...
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter 19 November 2020 12: 00
      As they are, they chew bread and receive their pay regularly. But for some reason, they often "do not have time", maybe the decision-making chain is too stretched, where it is sabotaged, or we do not know cunning plans and in fact everything is going as it should.

      ... successfully transforms former friends of the Russian Federation into enemies ..

      But Americans do not abandon their former friends. They are of course villains, but they remain in a distant orbit and "someone invisible", perhaps "the hand of the market", keeps their finger on the pulse there.
  2. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
    Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 19 November 2020 11: 33
    All of Bow's problems stem from one false message: he seriously considers himself smarter, smarter and more resourceful than those around him. A kind of Ostap Bender of bulbous filling. But he ended up badly, which may well become a reality for the Bulbaführer.
    1. _AMUHb_ Offline _AMUHb_
      _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 19 November 2020 21: 12
      how did he end up badly? you continue to read the "golden calf" called))
  3. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 19 November 2020 12: 10
    Luka is not a very smart person. He wants to continue to sit in Minsk, sending Moscow to three letters and pursuing a fairly Russophobic policy (suffice it to recall his speech in Kazakhstan, where he actually called the Russian Federation an occupier who imposed his wars on the Republic of Belarus and Kazakhstan) and at the same time receive loot from the Russian Federation for free and no obligation. It is no secret that all refineries of the Republic of Belarus live only on free oil supplies at domestic Russian prices, and the Russian Federation already finances two-thirds of the supposedly allied state with the Republic of Belarus, which in fact is not and is not expected. In any case, today the Russian Federation is of no use to Belarus, and the costs for it are very significant. And Kazakhstan is about the same suitcase without a handle, which is easier to throw away than to carry.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 13: 00
      The question is, for years, the handle was torn off from the "suitcase," where the Kremlin's cunning Surkovs and others were, why they allowed this. The problems of the Russian Federation begin in the Russian Federation, according to old concepts it is called treason ... When Jews and semi-Armenians and other non-Russians represent Russia, one should not expect otherwise, because interests differ ...
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Alexander) 19 November 2020 13: 27
        Yeltsin and Gorbachev allowed it. Gorbachev because he openly sold himself to the West, for a box of jam and a basket of cookies with which he now lives in Germany, united by him, and Yeltsin because he needed the throne and the poor for himself, and they both did not care about Russia. cancels the guilt of the Russophobic patients of the titular nations that separated from Russia
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 13: 32
          Not quite so, Gorbachev and Yeltsin destroyed the USSR, but the formation of the absent republics and countries took place later, after Yeltsin, when new generations grew up and were formed in an anti-Russian mood, here the times of GDP were already the main ones, then irreversible changes occurred ...
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Alexander) 19 November 2020 14: 01
            You yourself believe in it ?! The war in the same Karabakh began back in the 80s and the collapse of the USSR took place not without the help of local nationalists and beys, but with their direct participation, moreover, they were the driving force behind this process. In the RSFSR, there were no rallies demanding to separate Russia from the former republics of the USSR, or pogroms on ethnic grounds, but all this was in Azerbaijan and other post-Soviet republics. So you shouldn't blame yourself on a healthy head.
            1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 14: 13
              There was nationalism, there were grievances against the USSR, but there were no reasons for hostility to the new RF. This enmity to the new equal to all republics of the Russian Federation was created by the enemies and the United States, replacing hostility to the USSR for hostility to the Russian Federation ... You at least understand the main point. Here are the new masters of the Russian Federation (there are no fundamentals to call the leaders) only stuffed their pockets with the wealth of the Russian Federation and did nothing for the future of the Russian Federation. Let us recall Ukraine, when it was robbed with inflated hydrocarbon prices, but did nothing to attract it to itself. Chernomyrdin as the ambassador to Ukraine, previously the prime minister of the Russian Federation assisted in the plundering of the riches of the Russian Federation by a handful of schemers (mostly Jewish), allowed Ukraine to become anti-Russian and did not oppose in any way, because it was necessary to ring the bells !!! ... Wherever there, personal pockets were the main goal , so we have enemies all around ...
              1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                Sapsan136 (Alexander) 19 November 2020 14: 20
                There was hostility to the Russian Federation because there was hostility to the Russians. It was the Russians and Moscow, the local potentates who were accused of all the problems of the late USSR, although they themselves were completely sinful in them. It's no secret that in the former republics of the USSR, shadow business flourished (guilds) who naturally did not pay taxes to the treasury, and this was for the economy of the state as a whole. That is why in the former republics there were pogroms of the Russian population on ethnic grounds. The local bandits who came to power in the post-Soviet republics (we will call a spade a spade) blamed the Russians for all the economic problems and unleashed an angry crowd on them like a mad dog from a chain. , exactly as it is not going to pay compensation to the victims of the Russophobic beast. And who are Kuchma and Kravchuk ?! And these are the former party leaders of the CPSU of Ukraine and that the Ukrainian elite and the people put this thief at the head of the country, not the fault of the Russian Federation.
                1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 14: 34
                  Understand that the policy against Russia was imposed by Russia's enemies. Starting from the murder of Griboyedov in Iran, the locals were always POISED by enemies (mainly the Anglo-Saxons, the British and the USA). In Central Asia and the Caucasus, it is more difficult there, but all the same, interethnic hostility was promoted earlier, - on the radio. propaganda, the voices of "Freedom" and others. All this is the work of the enemies of Russia, so the enmity would not reach such bloody proportions, if it is enough to correctly prevent it. That they were allowed to follow the rut drawn by the enemies and did not resist, this is the fault of the "perestroika" and the main "liberals" in power, the GDP also did not succeed much ...
                  1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 19 November 2020 14: 38
                    I was offered to become a hitman, I am a sniper, I refused and this is my choice. Everyone is responsible for their actions and the former republics of the USSR as well. What do you mean imposed ?! They offered me ... And they made the choice themselves and are responsible for their choice ... I could also accept the offer to become a hitman and say that such a decision was imposed on me by the government and the President of the Russian Federation, who do not pay me as much as I wanted Would ... No need to look for those who are to blame for our actions, we ourselves are to blame, who committed them.
                    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 14: 42
                      You do not become a killer, but a prosperous country, they impose on you to become a millionaire, just a trifle, do not be friends with the Russian Federation, it is the enemy, we will build all the propaganda for your success, etc. ... Incomparable differences in your example ...
                      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Alexander) 19 November 2020 14: 47
                        And where and which of them became a millionaire ?! Promising does not mean getting married, and you must bear responsibility for your decisions yourself, and not point the finger at a bad uncle who allegedly deceived. Most often, those who are glad to be deceived are deceived. As recently as 2014, they tried to recruit me into the SBU. Sent so far that they no longer try and every person had such kind of proposals that were either illegal or went against their conscience. Someone sent with such proposals away, and someone was glad to accept them, because he was ready to accept them and was not against the crap of the Russian Federation and its indigenous population.
          2. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 19 November 2020 19: 17
            the formation of the absent republics and countries took place later, after Yeltsin,

            That is, the first 9 years after the collapse did not happen? Were they embarrassed to do it? If it's not a secret, by what criteria did you determine the beginning of "formation" and set the time of the beginning of this process?
            1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 November 2020 20: 38
              The older generation still had good memories of the USSR, but they raised a new generation, in their minds the enemies laid that the USSR, only the misfortune and the gulag of the peoples and the Russians were to blame, this is the generation that was formed over the past 25 years in all the surrounding republics with the connivance Kremlin eternal prisoners from the times of the "Yeltsin family" in power ....
              1. 123 Offline 123
                123 (123) 19 November 2020 20: 48
                The older generation also had good memories of the USSR.

                And in 1995, or according to another version in 2000, this generation died out or lost memory? How quickly, 5-10 years for extinction or loss of memory, don't you think?

                this is the generation that has been formed over the past 25 years in all the surrounding republics with the connivance of the Kremlin's eternal prisoners from the time of the "Yeltsin family" in power ....

                25 years, it turns out to be 1995, if you remember Yeltsin left later. So no docking.

                Since 1991, these very republics are on their own, the Kremlin is not responsible for them. You can just as well blame the communists that the wrong generation was raised in Poland, or in Finland. You know, they also lived in our state before. So where were the communists looking? Who did they raise?
                1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 November 2020 11: 38
                  Go deep into your scribbling and disassemble, they look at the nit-picking of an immature schoolchild ...
          3. Bitter Offline Bitter
            Bitter 19 November 2020 23: 15
            happened later, after Yeltsin, when new

            Maybe, but it looks more like the Alkasha allowed the stupid partners to retire after they made sure that the bulk of the processes are already irreversible. Otherwise, he would have poured some more.
        2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex 20 November 2020 13: 09
          ... only his price is not a box of jam (you think too well of his owners), but just a can ... and even that one in 500 ml ...
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 19 November 2020 15: 22
    Belarus - was a socialist republic, socialist and remained after gaining statehood - the only one of all the former republics of the USSR.
    There are no oligarchs there, and the class of big capitalists has not actually been formed.
    This is the root of tension.
    The heads of enterprises, offices, educational institutions, medical institutions, all structures without exception - sleep and see themselves as their masters.
    The leaders themselves are forced to submit to industrial relations, at the top of which is Lukashenka.
    Hence, on the one hand, they are formally on the side of Lukashenka, and on the other, they do not strongly prevent their employees from demonstrating against Lukashenka.
    This solves their lifelong goal - to take over the structures they manage, while remaining not only in the shadows, but formally even supporting Lukashenka.
    Hence the crowd and the duration of the protests.
  5. Anchonsha Offline Anchonsha
    Anchonsha (Anchonsha) 19 November 2020 21: 58
    And probably it will be necessary to do so until NATO members enter Belarus and create a new Banderia there.
  6. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
    Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 20 November 2020 11: 35
    Lukashenka's style is like “a simple boorish collective farm chairman”. The president of the country must not behave like that, it humiliates people (the "electorate" and people who are in power and power structures).
    It used to roll out when times were fat. People thought the president was a boor, but in the country everything was in order for a specific "charisma".

    Now this is only annoying. Lukashenka cannot change his approach (or megalomania).
    Therefore, the most basic and main factor provoking protests in Belarus is Lukashenka.

    Either he will leave or eventually he will be taken out of his post. And no one can help him.
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  8. Felix Polsky Offline Felix Polsky
    Felix Polsky (Felix Polsky) 20 November 2020 11: 51
    How strange the Kremlin chooses its friends. Chose Yanukovych - lost Ukraine. Chose Lukashenka - Belarus to the Losses. It looks like a not very smart woman destroying her life with her own hands. If the Russian troops enter Belarus, then in the end we will get a new powerful state in the East of Europe - an analogue of the Commonwealth. And then it may become the Kremlin's last mistake. ...
    1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
      Sapsan136 (Alexander) 20 November 2020 14: 47
      The Kremlin's mistake is an attempt to get the whole of Ukraine, or the whole of Belarus, despite the fact that the Westerners in none of these countries have never treated Russia well, and you cannot be forcibly sweet. Let them go back to Poland, graze the lord's pigs, since they missed this occupation, and Russia has enough eastern regions loyal to the Russian Federation that did not belong to these countries before. The same Ukraine, which became part of Russia in 1654, did not have Kharkov, these lands were part of Russia.
  9. Vladimir Sharp Offline Vladimir Sharp
    Vladimir Sharp (Vladimir) 21 November 2020 17: 58
    Lukashenka ok, there is nothing more to say ... he will end up in Rostov, if he's lucky.