Natural disasters in Russia: it will only get worse
The summer of 2019 has not yet crossed its equator, but has already been marked by serious natural disasters. The great Volga River, not without the “help” of human hands, was critically shallowed. Officials decided to discharge water from the Kuibyshev reservoir, based on an incorrect weather forecast. But in another part of Russia, "water has arrived": the Irkutsk region is drowning due to catastrophic floods, 20 people were killed, and there are missing people.
The total damage is still difficult to assess, but it will be great. Dozens of villages are flooded in Siberia, thousands of houses are in the water. Many people were left without housing and all property. Due to the flood, the yield is expected to fall by about 2,7 thousand tons of grain, which will be another blow to Russia, which has just begun to claim to become the “world breadbasket”. Many victims are assisted by EMERCOM officers, military, doctors and volunteers. There are over two hundred residents of the Irkutsk region in hospitals. Local authorities are trying to solve issues with providing the population with food, water and everything necessary, restore energy supply.
What caused the tragedy, and could it have been avoided?
Inna Latysheva, Associate Professor of the Department of ISU, said:
The anomaly is that at the same time, Arctic, subtropical and moist air masses collided from the Pacific Ocean. I agree with my colleague and the specialist of Roshydromet Roman Vilfand, who connects the incident with climate change. As a rule, large-scale floods caused by heavy rainfall occur once every 25-30 years, but now they are becoming more common.
So we come to the key question of whether it was possible to prevent a catastrophe and to avoid human casualties. Wilfand confirms that Roshydromet gave warnings of heavy precipitation in two days, but his experts were not able to adequately measure their volume:
The fact that things do not matter with domestic meteorologists, we already detail told earlier. Of the once powerful specialized satellite constellation, only three remained in orbit, and their equipment only partially works. These devices give Roshydromet only 5-6% of the information required for forecasting. Our meteorologists receive all other data from foreign satellites that fly over Russia.
For adequate weather forecasting, the country needs complex indicators: infrared maps of land and water surface, images of cloud fields, etc. Soviet satellites "Meteors" were some of the best in the world. The creation of one specialized apparatus for meteorological needs on its own today can take from 5 to 10 years, since this industry is ruined for us.
Meanwhile, weather forecasters warn that the frequency and strength of climatic anomalies will only increase.
The total damage is still difficult to assess, but it will be great. Dozens of villages are flooded in Siberia, thousands of houses are in the water. Many people were left without housing and all property. Due to the flood, the yield is expected to fall by about 2,7 thousand tons of grain, which will be another blow to Russia, which has just begun to claim to become the “world breadbasket”. Many victims are assisted by EMERCOM officers, military, doctors and volunteers. There are over two hundred residents of the Irkutsk region in hospitals. Local authorities are trying to solve issues with providing the population with food, water and everything necessary, restore energy supply.
What caused the tragedy, and could it have been avoided?
Inna Latysheva, Associate Professor of the Department of ISU, said:
The cause of the catastrophic floods is the anomalous development of atmospheric processes, which manifested themselves against the background of observed global and regional climate changes. Under the influence of such processes to the greatest extent among the regions of Eurasia was the territory of the Irkutsk region.
The anomaly is that at the same time, Arctic, subtropical and moist air masses collided from the Pacific Ocean. I agree with my colleague and the specialist of Roshydromet Roman Vilfand, who connects the incident with climate change. As a rule, large-scale floods caused by heavy rainfall occur once every 25-30 years, but now they are becoming more common.
So we come to the key question of whether it was possible to prevent a catastrophe and to avoid human casualties. Wilfand confirms that Roshydromet gave warnings of heavy precipitation in two days, but his experts were not able to adequately measure their volume:
It is impossible to measure precipitation in the mountains. This requires a special powerful observational system.
The fact that things do not matter with domestic meteorologists, we already detail told earlier. Of the once powerful specialized satellite constellation, only three remained in orbit, and their equipment only partially works. These devices give Roshydromet only 5-6% of the information required for forecasting. Our meteorologists receive all other data from foreign satellites that fly over Russia.
For adequate weather forecasting, the country needs complex indicators: infrared maps of land and water surface, images of cloud fields, etc. Soviet satellites "Meteors" were some of the best in the world. The creation of one specialized apparatus for meteorological needs on its own today can take from 5 to 10 years, since this industry is ruined for us.
Meanwhile, weather forecasters warn that the frequency and strength of climatic anomalies will only increase.
Information