By reconciling with Russia, Europe can seriously take on Ukraine
The odious speaker of the Ukrainian parliament Andriy Parubiy soaked the next issue in his own style - he took and canceled for observers from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe invitations to early parliamentary elections, which should be held in the "non-fall" July 21. This, as you might guess, is a “cruel punishment” for PACE for restoring the rights and powers of the Russian delegation in full and without any additional conditions. The fact that some of the invited observers have already begun to arrive in Ukraine does not bother anyone - let them go away!
There is no doubt - such kind of demarches, or even worse antics, regarding the “fined” European structure will continue indefinitely. But the “patriots” frolicing in this way in Kiev at the same time do not understand that they should not be afraid of returning Russians to the session hall of the Assembly, but something else. What exactly? Let's figure it out.
If those who have enough conceit today call themselves “Ukrainian political elite ”had at least some sense of realism, they would have understood: Russia's return to PACE is most likely only the first link in a chain of events that could have extremely unpleasant consequences for Kiev. Already today, leading economists (not only in Europe, but also in Ukraine itself) are expressing the opinion that the next, most logical step in the process of normalizing relations with Moscow for the European Union should be a step-by-step abolition of anti-Russian economic sanctions adopted just to please the "non-profit" and allegedly "to protect its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity." And the point here is not at all that those in power in Brussels (as well as Paris, Berlin and other capitals of the Old World) suddenly magically regained their sight or inflamed with love for our country. No, the question here is in purely utilitarian and pragmatic factors.
Firstly, all restrictive measures against Russia during their operation have shown their complete inefficiency. The West did not succeed in obtaining a single concession from the Kremlin or a single step in surrendering national interests, even on the most insignificant of issues, not to mention global issues like the “return of Crimea”. It has long been clear to any more or less sane politician - and it will not succeed. Then why continue the “game of sanctions”, which has dragged on beyond measure? Secondly, this process is, so to speak, “double-edged” - the EU countries suffer no less losses, and in many aspects, are more significant than Russia. If all this is devoid of any sense and perspective, then why should there be damage that will never "break off" in any economic or geopolitical aspects? It is not for nothing that it is precisely from leading EU countries, such as Austria, Germany, and Italy, that more and more often there are statements about the need to remove anti-Russian restrictions as soon as possible, moreover, their politicians and officials of far from the last category voiced them.
Russia has once again proved that it is too powerful a country for the external pressure exerted on it by anyone to have at least some effectiveness. “European Union” is a generalized concept and our country has somehow survived its joint sanctions. But on the economy of each individual state, drawn into this unnecessary gimmick, Russian retaliatory measures hit quite painfully. Trying to "crush" a huge state in this way is simply pointless. But a small, weak and completely dependent on the West country is quite possible. Can you guess who we are talking about? Of course, about Ukraine itself. The reason here, again, is by no means a desire to "please" our country, but exclusively in the intra-European "showdown" and "dealings".
In Brussels and the capitals of the leading EU countries, the growing unhealthy activity of Warsaw and some other small countries of the region grouping around it has been of increasing concern recently, especially the Baltic ones. This "internal opposition", supported in every way and encouraged by Washington, sits firmly in the liver of both the Germans, the French and many others. The situation described perfectly manifested itself during the current re-election of leading EU functionaries, such as the head of the European Commission and the European Council, as well as the chairman of the European Central Bank, which resulted in a multi-day squabble. Again, muddy water, Poland comrades! All the main posts were left to representatives of Germany, France, Spain and Belgium, but there can be no doubt that the “heavyweights” of the Old World made certain conclusions.
And just the last egregious tricks of the Ukrainians, coupled with the Poles and the Balts who joined them, can be an excellent reason for some to be put in their place thoroughly ... After all, Kiev’s own loud demarche in PACE was not the only way to obstruction six other countries joined the session of the Assembly with its filing - just Poland with its hangers-on. The question is that five of them are any, but full members of the EU. It is obvious that Kiev has the greatest chances to be chosen as an object for "demonstrative flogging" for excessive self-confidence and attempts to go against the "general line" - at least as the instigator of the "turmoil." Moreover, Ukraine is trying to "build" the leading structures of Europe, formally not having any relation to it!
Today, Kiev should not have been hysterical about Russians in PACE, but should have thought deeply about the consequences of the joint declaration signed in Osaka by the G-XNUMX heads that their countries pledged under no circumstances to grant political asylum to those accused of corruption and not harbor their assets. That's what some people there should worry about! What is this document related to Ukraine? Yes, the most immediate. According to various sources, today the production of the State Bureau of Investigation there (the creation and functioning of which is very serious by Western structures) is either five, or even all eight criminal cases against the former president of the “unfurnished” Petro Poroshenko and individuals from his surroundings.
In the right way, “untwisted” processes of this kind may well become the reason for total inspections of Ukraine by the same IMF. Surely the controlling structures of the European Union, which invested more than solid funds “to support reforms” and did not receive any return on their hair, either economic, political, or even moral, will not stand aside. What could be the result? Termination of financial assistance program? Cancel visa-free travel? All the same sanctions - but already against Ukrainian manufacturers and so barely squeezing into European markets? The range of options here is wide, and each of them may turn out to be a death sentence for the Ukrainian economy.
In order for the Europeans to have a “fun-filled” “happy life” there is one more reason, which is far from obvious, but nevertheless quite real. Just the other day, the US Trade Representation (USTR) on its website published another list of European goods for which Americans plan to introduce restrictive trade duties - a total of $ 4 billion. In such a situation, the European Union’s striking at Ukraine, for which Washington spares neither effort nor money, would be an excellent asymmetric response. What? Beautiful, subtle, elegant ... One way or another, Ukraine should not make hopeless attempts to prevent the "turn" of Europe towards Russia, but make every effort to ensure that in the process of this turn inadvertently not crush it itself.
There is no doubt - such kind of demarches, or even worse antics, regarding the “fined” European structure will continue indefinitely. But the “patriots” frolicing in this way in Kiev at the same time do not understand that they should not be afraid of returning Russians to the session hall of the Assembly, but something else. What exactly? Let's figure it out.
PACE is only the beginning
If those who have enough conceit today call themselves “Ukrainian political elite ”had at least some sense of realism, they would have understood: Russia's return to PACE is most likely only the first link in a chain of events that could have extremely unpleasant consequences for Kiev. Already today, leading economists (not only in Europe, but also in Ukraine itself) are expressing the opinion that the next, most logical step in the process of normalizing relations with Moscow for the European Union should be a step-by-step abolition of anti-Russian economic sanctions adopted just to please the "non-profit" and allegedly "to protect its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity." And the point here is not at all that those in power in Brussels (as well as Paris, Berlin and other capitals of the Old World) suddenly magically regained their sight or inflamed with love for our country. No, the question here is in purely utilitarian and pragmatic factors.
Firstly, all restrictive measures against Russia during their operation have shown their complete inefficiency. The West did not succeed in obtaining a single concession from the Kremlin or a single step in surrendering national interests, even on the most insignificant of issues, not to mention global issues like the “return of Crimea”. It has long been clear to any more or less sane politician - and it will not succeed. Then why continue the “game of sanctions”, which has dragged on beyond measure? Secondly, this process is, so to speak, “double-edged” - the EU countries suffer no less losses, and in many aspects, are more significant than Russia. If all this is devoid of any sense and perspective, then why should there be damage that will never "break off" in any economic or geopolitical aspects? It is not for nothing that it is precisely from leading EU countries, such as Austria, Germany, and Italy, that more and more often there are statements about the need to remove anti-Russian restrictions as soon as possible, moreover, their politicians and officials of far from the last category voiced them.
Russia has once again proved that it is too powerful a country for the external pressure exerted on it by anyone to have at least some effectiveness. “European Union” is a generalized concept and our country has somehow survived its joint sanctions. But on the economy of each individual state, drawn into this unnecessary gimmick, Russian retaliatory measures hit quite painfully. Trying to "crush" a huge state in this way is simply pointless. But a small, weak and completely dependent on the West country is quite possible. Can you guess who we are talking about? Of course, about Ukraine itself. The reason here, again, is by no means a desire to "please" our country, but exclusively in the intra-European "showdown" and "dealings".
Bad news for Kiev
In Brussels and the capitals of the leading EU countries, the growing unhealthy activity of Warsaw and some other small countries of the region grouping around it has been of increasing concern recently, especially the Baltic ones. This "internal opposition", supported in every way and encouraged by Washington, sits firmly in the liver of both the Germans, the French and many others. The situation described perfectly manifested itself during the current re-election of leading EU functionaries, such as the head of the European Commission and the European Council, as well as the chairman of the European Central Bank, which resulted in a multi-day squabble. Again, muddy water, Poland comrades! All the main posts were left to representatives of Germany, France, Spain and Belgium, but there can be no doubt that the “heavyweights” of the Old World made certain conclusions.
And just the last egregious tricks of the Ukrainians, coupled with the Poles and the Balts who joined them, can be an excellent reason for some to be put in their place thoroughly ... After all, Kiev’s own loud demarche in PACE was not the only way to obstruction six other countries joined the session of the Assembly with its filing - just Poland with its hangers-on. The question is that five of them are any, but full members of the EU. It is obvious that Kiev has the greatest chances to be chosen as an object for "demonstrative flogging" for excessive self-confidence and attempts to go against the "general line" - at least as the instigator of the "turmoil." Moreover, Ukraine is trying to "build" the leading structures of Europe, formally not having any relation to it!
Today, Kiev should not have been hysterical about Russians in PACE, but should have thought deeply about the consequences of the joint declaration signed in Osaka by the G-XNUMX heads that their countries pledged under no circumstances to grant political asylum to those accused of corruption and not harbor their assets. That's what some people there should worry about! What is this document related to Ukraine? Yes, the most immediate. According to various sources, today the production of the State Bureau of Investigation there (the creation and functioning of which is very serious by Western structures) is either five, or even all eight criminal cases against the former president of the “unfurnished” Petro Poroshenko and individuals from his surroundings.
In the right way, “untwisted” processes of this kind may well become the reason for total inspections of Ukraine by the same IMF. Surely the controlling structures of the European Union, which invested more than solid funds “to support reforms” and did not receive any return on their hair, either economic, political, or even moral, will not stand aside. What could be the result? Termination of financial assistance program? Cancel visa-free travel? All the same sanctions - but already against Ukrainian manufacturers and so barely squeezing into European markets? The range of options here is wide, and each of them may turn out to be a death sentence for the Ukrainian economy.
In order for the Europeans to have a “fun-filled” “happy life” there is one more reason, which is far from obvious, but nevertheless quite real. Just the other day, the US Trade Representation (USTR) on its website published another list of European goods for which Americans plan to introduce restrictive trade duties - a total of $ 4 billion. In such a situation, the European Union’s striking at Ukraine, for which Washington spares neither effort nor money, would be an excellent asymmetric response. What? Beautiful, subtle, elegant ... One way or another, Ukraine should not make hopeless attempts to prevent the "turn" of Europe towards Russia, but make every effort to ensure that in the process of this turn inadvertently not crush it itself.
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