C-400 for Ankara: capitulation of the USA or “calm before the storm”?
Turkish President Recep Erdogan made a very optimistic statement following the results of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan: “No economic there will be no sanctions from the United States for Ankara's purchase of the Russian S-400 Triumph air defense system! " Donald Trump told him this - in a personal conversation, which took place "on the sidelines" of the event. Has Washington surrendered in the titanic struggle that it waged against this fundamentally wrong and, moreover, completely inadmissible, in its opinion, deal? Or is the Turkish leader in a hurry wishful thinking? This is worth considering.
On the one hand, a meeting of the two leaders definitely took place. This is a fact confirmed. The question is different - the head of the White House commented on the content and results of the conversation with his Turkish counterpart in a slightly different vein than Erdogan himself. He described the situation with Turkey’s acquisition of Russian weapons as “difficult” and mentioned that he “is looking for solutions to it that are not related to the imposition of sanctions.” However, as such restrictive measures against Ankara, he did not rule out at all. At the same time, the American president did not fail to carry out his favorite trick - to shift responsibility for what is happening "from a sore point to a healthy one."
In this situation, we are talking about the next allegations made by Trump against his own predecessor - Barack Obama. Like, it was because of his unwillingness to sell Patriot air defense systems to Ankara that all the mess was brewed. That is true, but the problem is that now the Turks are naturally turning their noses off the American complexes, which Washington is now ready to provide them with what they say, with a dear soul: both the price is predatory and the conditions are not so attractive ... Still ! According to a statement by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, the final version of the contract, signed with them by the Russian side, provides, inter alia, for transferring part of Ankara of technologies for the production of S-400! And the financial side for her is more than profitable - half the amount on credit, this is not a joke.
What remains of the USA? The attempt to “crush” the stubborn Turks through a program to create and operate the F-35 has so far failed. Despite the fact that Turkish pilots have already been officially suspended from training on this fighter since the beginning of June, Erdogan is full of optimism in this regard. He said that four planes, according to the program, Ankara has already received, and with good reason claims to be another 116 of them. Like, money was paid for them, and considerable - almost one and a half billion dollars! Obviously, the calculation here is that Washington will not dare to primitively "throw" partners who have invested a lot of effort and money in the development of the F-35. The program is multinational, and such an act will not be the most positive signal for the rest of its participants. However, at the same time, Turkey is announcing its own project to develop a fifth generation fighter. As an insurance against the most unforeseen event, obviously.
As a matter of fact, Washington does not have any other “leverage” besides the long-promised sanctions of Ankara by a whole group of US senators under the CAATSA law. Otherwise, all the formidable statements made on this occasion by official representatives of the United States - from Trump himself and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to numerous senior Pentagon officials, will not be worth a damn. And the matter is not only in Turkey itself - in this way, a dangerous precedent, in the opinion of the USA, will be created. Indeed, "next in line", following Turkey, is the next country in which the Triumphs should be delivered. This is India, for which the Americans are fighting a huge arms market. Delhi has already received completely unambiguous “advice” from Washington's foreign ministry to refuse the deal. And, again, under the threat of imposing sanctions under the notorious CAATSA. If the purchase of the S-400 "gets away" with the Turks, getting Indians to submit will be even more problematic.
However, besides this, there are other reasons that give reason to consider Erdogan's positive attitude as overly optimistic. Naturally, in the process of his meeting with Trump, the subject of discussion was not only the Russian weapons purchased by Turkey. The conversation, quite expectedly, was about Syria - or rather, about the Kurdish armed groups operating there. And if for Washington, groups like the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and YPG are “moderate opposition” and clearly supported by allies, then for Ankara these are “unconditionally” terrorists ... It is not surprising that the Turkish leader announced the remaining “serious problems” and contradictions ”with the US on the Syrian issue. Do not agree. Yes, and hardly could, in principle. The positions of Turkey and the United States have recently diverged more and more - and not only in matters related to the Middle East.
Ankara will not refuse to acquire the S-400 - Erdogan himself stated that "the contract is at a stage when it is impossible to reject it." In any case, it "would not be worthy of a country like Turkey." However, it is unlikely that the United States will abandon its own policy dictate and bullying. Surely Trump himself, and, especially, the rest of Washington politicians and officials, are firmly convinced that this will not be worthy of a “great America." The answer will inevitably be - the only question is which and when.
On the one hand, a meeting of the two leaders definitely took place. This is a fact confirmed. The question is different - the head of the White House commented on the content and results of the conversation with his Turkish counterpart in a slightly different vein than Erdogan himself. He described the situation with Turkey’s acquisition of Russian weapons as “difficult” and mentioned that he “is looking for solutions to it that are not related to the imposition of sanctions.” However, as such restrictive measures against Ankara, he did not rule out at all. At the same time, the American president did not fail to carry out his favorite trick - to shift responsibility for what is happening "from a sore point to a healthy one."
In this situation, we are talking about the next allegations made by Trump against his own predecessor - Barack Obama. Like, it was because of his unwillingness to sell Patriot air defense systems to Ankara that all the mess was brewed. That is true, but the problem is that now the Turks are naturally turning their noses off the American complexes, which Washington is now ready to provide them with what they say, with a dear soul: both the price is predatory and the conditions are not so attractive ... Still ! According to a statement by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, the final version of the contract, signed with them by the Russian side, provides, inter alia, for transferring part of Ankara of technologies for the production of S-400! And the financial side for her is more than profitable - half the amount on credit, this is not a joke.
What remains of the USA? The attempt to “crush” the stubborn Turks through a program to create and operate the F-35 has so far failed. Despite the fact that Turkish pilots have already been officially suspended from training on this fighter since the beginning of June, Erdogan is full of optimism in this regard. He said that four planes, according to the program, Ankara has already received, and with good reason claims to be another 116 of them. Like, money was paid for them, and considerable - almost one and a half billion dollars! Obviously, the calculation here is that Washington will not dare to primitively "throw" partners who have invested a lot of effort and money in the development of the F-35. The program is multinational, and such an act will not be the most positive signal for the rest of its participants. However, at the same time, Turkey is announcing its own project to develop a fifth generation fighter. As an insurance against the most unforeseen event, obviously.
As a matter of fact, Washington does not have any other “leverage” besides the long-promised sanctions of Ankara by a whole group of US senators under the CAATSA law. Otherwise, all the formidable statements made on this occasion by official representatives of the United States - from Trump himself and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to numerous senior Pentagon officials, will not be worth a damn. And the matter is not only in Turkey itself - in this way, a dangerous precedent, in the opinion of the USA, will be created. Indeed, "next in line", following Turkey, is the next country in which the Triumphs should be delivered. This is India, for which the Americans are fighting a huge arms market. Delhi has already received completely unambiguous “advice” from Washington's foreign ministry to refuse the deal. And, again, under the threat of imposing sanctions under the notorious CAATSA. If the purchase of the S-400 "gets away" with the Turks, getting Indians to submit will be even more problematic.
However, besides this, there are other reasons that give reason to consider Erdogan's positive attitude as overly optimistic. Naturally, in the process of his meeting with Trump, the subject of discussion was not only the Russian weapons purchased by Turkey. The conversation, quite expectedly, was about Syria - or rather, about the Kurdish armed groups operating there. And if for Washington, groups like the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and YPG are “moderate opposition” and clearly supported by allies, then for Ankara these are “unconditionally” terrorists ... It is not surprising that the Turkish leader announced the remaining “serious problems” and contradictions ”with the US on the Syrian issue. Do not agree. Yes, and hardly could, in principle. The positions of Turkey and the United States have recently diverged more and more - and not only in matters related to the Middle East.
Ankara will not refuse to acquire the S-400 - Erdogan himself stated that "the contract is at a stage when it is impossible to reject it." In any case, it "would not be worthy of a country like Turkey." However, it is unlikely that the United States will abandon its own policy dictate and bullying. Surely Trump himself, and, especially, the rest of Washington politicians and officials, are firmly convinced that this will not be worthy of a “great America." The answer will inevitably be - the only question is which and when.
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