Why the meeting of Putin and Trump will result in even tougher sanctions
The long-term results of the meeting of the leaders of Russia and the United States of America, held during the GXNUMX Summit in Japan, will make themselves known much later. If she has any far-reaching consequences at all, which, in truth, seems extremely doubtful ... In the meantime, the world is discussing the very fact of this conversation at the highest level, as such, and, admittedly, without any enthusiasm. The vast majority of experts in the field of geopolitics are sure that this “passing meeting” will not lead to any serious changes in Russian-American relations. To the positive, at least for sure. Why is that? Let's try to figure it out together.
First of all, it is necessary to recall the results of previous meetings of the two leaders. What are the results ?! That's it ... That's just the point, that there is absolutely nothing to remember. For the fifth time, it’s time to celebrate the “anniversary” - starting in July 2017, presidents regularly “intersect in the fields” of the G20 summits (in Germany, Argentina and now in Japan), the APEC (in Vietnam), or the events marking the end of the First World War II in romantic Paris. Even the real “full-length negotiations” took place in Finnish Helsinki: they talked face to face, and with the participation of members of official delegations. What is the result? A peculiar idle talk on duty about “preoccupation with negative trends in bilateral relations” and assurances of the most ardent desire to “break the deadlock” are those. And as a result?
All new sanctions, regular charges, claims of an attempt to “punish” Russia no matter what. And, most importantly, the treaties that were crumbling one after another, which to this day provided at least some global security system in the world and prevented new rounds of the “arms race”. And the issue of “Russian interference in the American election” has become the “chip” of every meeting between Trump and Putin. The first one certainly asks “not to interfere anymore”, and the second one sincerely assures that he had nothing in his thoughts. It's just funny already ...
The next emotional statements by the head of the White House, proclaimed after each such meeting - that Vladimir Vladimirovich, in essence, is a "wonderful guy", and Washington and Moscow must certainly "get along", have not been taken seriously for a long time. Moreover, Trump himself, in the usual manner for himself, always knows how to give out something that completely disavows these words. For example, to tell that at the last G20 summit he "met with prime ministers, presidents and dictators." Considering that he held negotiations with the heads of Russia, China, Turkey and Japan, the choice of who this “honorary" title belongs to, you see, is small. Well, it is unlikely that in this case he had in mind the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, with whom he also spoke.
I must say that in the USA itself the fact of the meeting of the leader of their country with our president did not cause much interest. And this is still very mildly speaking. What they really worried about was the meeting between Trump and Chairman X. The trade war with China is too much in the United States and too much for it. And Russia ... Alas, in recent years, the Americans have been too well instilled with the image of the enemy against it. The local media unanimously criticized his own president for "excessive softness" in dealing with Putin, coupled with "ridiculing interference with him in the election," and switched to a much more burning topic of resuming negotiations with China. Serious local analysts, such as Andrew Weiss, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, even believe that the talks were "either a discussion about anything or a very destabilizing meeting." The destabilizing, of course, relationship between Washington and Moscow. Weiss cites as an example the introduction by the US Congress of a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions, almost immediately after the next “wonderful” conversation between the presidents in Hamburg.
Against this background, statements from the Kremlin today about its readiness to "do everything possible" to improve relations with the United States and discussions about "mutual understanding between the parties" sound somehow not very appropriate. Although ... What would you like to tell Vladimir Vladimirovich? "How long have we not seen each other and why did we meet ?!" In general, as far as the specifics of the negotiations are concerned, here our position is quite realistic: “the broadest range of issues was touched upon” (that is, we talked about everything at once and about nothing in particular), “we recorded the unsatisfactory state of our economic relations "(spreading, presumably, after that with his hands) and so on.
“They recognized that we need to somehow get out of this negative situation.” And where to go out? It’s only possible to talk about a “way out” realistically when Russia and the United States have some points on which it will really be possible to reach an agreement without “losing face” and surrendering the basic geopolitical interests of both countries. Today, alas, there are none. And the hope expressed in certain circles of the domestic expert community that the meeting of leaders “showed readiness to conduct a dialogue on strategic stability issues” is also quite illusory. There is no way to do dialogue for two here today. Washington intends to conclude any agreements (for example, the "updated" INF Treaty) exclusively with the participation of China. And Beijing’s sharply negative attitude to such initiatives is known more than well.
Any points regarding contacts between the leaders of the United States and Russia today must be considered, first of all, in the context of the election campaign of Donald Trump. For the second term in the Oval Office, he will do absolutely everything that the potential "electorate" will require from him. And the request in American society, and even more so, the political "establishment", alas, is exclusively Russophobic. This illustrates beautifully not only the general embittered tone of the American media commenting on the meeting and conducting a conversation (like, for example, The Washington Post) about another “betrayal of America”, but also the already angry philippics of the “patriarchs” of the Washington politicum. 95-year-old Jimmy Carter, having shaken off the mothballs, began to blaspheme his colleague for “inappropriate jokes and liberties with Putin” from television screens, ending his own speech with the assertion that Trump “took his place in the White House solely thanks to the support of Russia.”
There is no doubt that any, the most innocent attempt by the president to reduce the degree of tension in relations with Moscow will be perceived in exactly the same vein. Donald found himself in a situation described by a famous camp saying: “Step to the right, step to the left - they are equated with an escape. Jumping in place is an attempt to fly away! ” Nobody in Washington will let him get off or fly off the deeply beaten anti-Russian “rut”. What is the “lifting of sanctions” - they wouldn’t introduce new ones! Moreover, there are plenty of fresh reasons for that - for example, the position clearly defined by Russia on Iran, which completely does not coincide with the vision and plans of the Americans. Or, all the same Venezuela. From reliable sources it is known that in certain US government circles, the issue of comprehensive sanctions against Rosneft is precisely being considered precisely for "actively aiding the Maduro regime." This is the most crude reality. And talking about “great guys” and “constructive dialogue” is nothing more than lyrics. The Russian-American “dead end” has not completely disappeared, except that the presidents this time looked at it from the other side - from the East.
It should be clearly understood: the whole policy Donald Trump, this is, above all, a show. To become "the first US president to set foot on the land of North Korea" - that’s the very thing for him! And endless and empty talk about the "denuclearization" of the DPRK is nothing more than an accompanying soundtrack. The comrades from Pyongyang discovered this for a long time - and they play along to Donald, probably laughing heartily to themselves, but at the same time not forgetting about their own interests. It’s time for us to start treating him the same way.
So, after all, a “good guy” or a “dictator”?
First of all, it is necessary to recall the results of previous meetings of the two leaders. What are the results ?! That's it ... That's just the point, that there is absolutely nothing to remember. For the fifth time, it’s time to celebrate the “anniversary” - starting in July 2017, presidents regularly “intersect in the fields” of the G20 summits (in Germany, Argentina and now in Japan), the APEC (in Vietnam), or the events marking the end of the First World War II in romantic Paris. Even the real “full-length negotiations” took place in Finnish Helsinki: they talked face to face, and with the participation of members of official delegations. What is the result? A peculiar idle talk on duty about “preoccupation with negative trends in bilateral relations” and assurances of the most ardent desire to “break the deadlock” are those. And as a result?
All new sanctions, regular charges, claims of an attempt to “punish” Russia no matter what. And, most importantly, the treaties that were crumbling one after another, which to this day provided at least some global security system in the world and prevented new rounds of the “arms race”. And the issue of “Russian interference in the American election” has become the “chip” of every meeting between Trump and Putin. The first one certainly asks “not to interfere anymore”, and the second one sincerely assures that he had nothing in his thoughts. It's just funny already ...
The next emotional statements by the head of the White House, proclaimed after each such meeting - that Vladimir Vladimirovich, in essence, is a "wonderful guy", and Washington and Moscow must certainly "get along", have not been taken seriously for a long time. Moreover, Trump himself, in the usual manner for himself, always knows how to give out something that completely disavows these words. For example, to tell that at the last G20 summit he "met with prime ministers, presidents and dictators." Considering that he held negotiations with the heads of Russia, China, Turkey and Japan, the choice of who this “honorary" title belongs to, you see, is small. Well, it is unlikely that in this case he had in mind the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, with whom he also spoke.
A look from Washington and from Moscow
I must say that in the USA itself the fact of the meeting of the leader of their country with our president did not cause much interest. And this is still very mildly speaking. What they really worried about was the meeting between Trump and Chairman X. The trade war with China is too much in the United States and too much for it. And Russia ... Alas, in recent years, the Americans have been too well instilled with the image of the enemy against it. The local media unanimously criticized his own president for "excessive softness" in dealing with Putin, coupled with "ridiculing interference with him in the election," and switched to a much more burning topic of resuming negotiations with China. Serious local analysts, such as Andrew Weiss, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, even believe that the talks were "either a discussion about anything or a very destabilizing meeting." The destabilizing, of course, relationship between Washington and Moscow. Weiss cites as an example the introduction by the US Congress of a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions, almost immediately after the next “wonderful” conversation between the presidents in Hamburg.
Against this background, statements from the Kremlin today about its readiness to "do everything possible" to improve relations with the United States and discussions about "mutual understanding between the parties" sound somehow not very appropriate. Although ... What would you like to tell Vladimir Vladimirovich? "How long have we not seen each other and why did we meet ?!" In general, as far as the specifics of the negotiations are concerned, here our position is quite realistic: “the broadest range of issues was touched upon” (that is, we talked about everything at once and about nothing in particular), “we recorded the unsatisfactory state of our economic relations "(spreading, presumably, after that with his hands) and so on.
“They recognized that we need to somehow get out of this negative situation.” And where to go out? It’s only possible to talk about a “way out” realistically when Russia and the United States have some points on which it will really be possible to reach an agreement without “losing face” and surrendering the basic geopolitical interests of both countries. Today, alas, there are none. And the hope expressed in certain circles of the domestic expert community that the meeting of leaders “showed readiness to conduct a dialogue on strategic stability issues” is also quite illusory. There is no way to do dialogue for two here today. Washington intends to conclude any agreements (for example, the "updated" INF Treaty) exclusively with the participation of China. And Beijing’s sharply negative attitude to such initiatives is known more than well.
Does Trump need a pre-election Russian roulette?
Any points regarding contacts between the leaders of the United States and Russia today must be considered, first of all, in the context of the election campaign of Donald Trump. For the second term in the Oval Office, he will do absolutely everything that the potential "electorate" will require from him. And the request in American society, and even more so, the political "establishment", alas, is exclusively Russophobic. This illustrates beautifully not only the general embittered tone of the American media commenting on the meeting and conducting a conversation (like, for example, The Washington Post) about another “betrayal of America”, but also the already angry philippics of the “patriarchs” of the Washington politicum. 95-year-old Jimmy Carter, having shaken off the mothballs, began to blaspheme his colleague for “inappropriate jokes and liberties with Putin” from television screens, ending his own speech with the assertion that Trump “took his place in the White House solely thanks to the support of Russia.”
There is no doubt that any, the most innocent attempt by the president to reduce the degree of tension in relations with Moscow will be perceived in exactly the same vein. Donald found himself in a situation described by a famous camp saying: “Step to the right, step to the left - they are equated with an escape. Jumping in place is an attempt to fly away! ” Nobody in Washington will let him get off or fly off the deeply beaten anti-Russian “rut”. What is the “lifting of sanctions” - they wouldn’t introduce new ones! Moreover, there are plenty of fresh reasons for that - for example, the position clearly defined by Russia on Iran, which completely does not coincide with the vision and plans of the Americans. Or, all the same Venezuela. From reliable sources it is known that in certain US government circles, the issue of comprehensive sanctions against Rosneft is precisely being considered precisely for "actively aiding the Maduro regime." This is the most crude reality. And talking about “great guys” and “constructive dialogue” is nothing more than lyrics. The Russian-American “dead end” has not completely disappeared, except that the presidents this time looked at it from the other side - from the East.
It should be clearly understood: the whole policy Donald Trump, this is, above all, a show. To become "the first US president to set foot on the land of North Korea" - that’s the very thing for him! And endless and empty talk about the "denuclearization" of the DPRK is nothing more than an accompanying soundtrack. The comrades from Pyongyang discovered this for a long time - and they play along to Donald, probably laughing heartily to themselves, but at the same time not forgetting about their own interests. It’s time for us to start treating him the same way.
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