In a rush to respond to US sanctions, Russia risks hitting itself
Sanctions imposed by the United States of America painfully hit the economy Of Russia. In the financial markets, there is a feverish sale of shares of companies subject to restrictive measures. Amid the panic, the exchange rate of foreign currencies against the Russian ruble sharply jumped. Experts predict a further increase in capital outflows from Russia, and a reduction in foreign direct investment in its economy. The country will inevitably increase inflation.
Experts at the Higher School of Economics give disappointing forecasts on growth rates amid US sanctions:
The difficulty in further forecasting is compounded by Washington’s threats to impose further sanctions, which, according to US Special Representative to the United Nations Nicky Haley, will be "directed against any companies related to equipment related to (Syrian leader) Assad and the use of chemical weapons."
Against this background, there are calls for a mirror response to the United States by the introduction of its own economic sanctions. For example, it became known that Russia reduced its assets in US government bonds by $ 3,1 billion. Currently, the Russian Federation owns a US government debt of $ 93,3 billion, ranking 16th in the ranking of creditors in the United States of America.
However, other voices are heard calling not to answer the States with their own weapons. For example, journalist and TV host Vladimir Pozner, holder of French and American passports, believes that “mirror measures are not a sign of strength, much less wisdom.” The liberal economists of the Higher School of Economics adhere to the same position:
According to these experts, retaliatory sanctions will lead to the economic isolation of Russia and its technical backwardness. Leveling the effect of American sanctions will require large-scale financial injections, which against the background of a decline in exports can lead to a budget deficit and inflation, as well as social tension and protest activity in Russia. Liberal economists propose to wait, without answering, until the effect of Western sanctions “resolves itself”.
As a historical reference, I would like to note that at one time the Soviet government was able to withstand more serious external influences and built a real superpower within its own development model.
Experts at the Higher School of Economics give disappointing forecasts on growth rates amid US sanctions:
According to our estimates, under the influence of these factors, the expected GDP growth in 2018 (with an average annual oil price of $ 67 per barrel) will slow down from 1,9% (without sanctions) to 1,7%
The difficulty in further forecasting is compounded by Washington’s threats to impose further sanctions, which, according to US Special Representative to the United Nations Nicky Haley, will be "directed against any companies related to equipment related to (Syrian leader) Assad and the use of chemical weapons."
Against this background, there are calls for a mirror response to the United States by the introduction of its own economic sanctions. For example, it became known that Russia reduced its assets in US government bonds by $ 3,1 billion. Currently, the Russian Federation owns a US government debt of $ 93,3 billion, ranking 16th in the ranking of creditors in the United States of America.
However, other voices are heard calling not to answer the States with their own weapons. For example, journalist and TV host Vladimir Pozner, holder of French and American passports, believes that “mirror measures are not a sign of strength, much less wisdom.” The liberal economists of the Higher School of Economics adhere to the same position:
The size of the Russian economy is an order of magnitude smaller than the US economy, which means that any sanctions that are sensitive to the US will hit Russia much harder
According to these experts, retaliatory sanctions will lead to the economic isolation of Russia and its technical backwardness. Leveling the effect of American sanctions will require large-scale financial injections, which against the background of a decline in exports can lead to a budget deficit and inflation, as well as social tension and protest activity in Russia. Liberal economists propose to wait, without answering, until the effect of Western sanctions “resolves itself”.
As a historical reference, I would like to note that at one time the Soviet government was able to withstand more serious external influences and built a real superpower within its own development model.
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