Negotiations in Israel: Russia has decided on an ally in the Middle East
The situation around Iran continues to escalate. Donald Trump stopped the strike “in ten minutes”, but continues to talk about its inevitability if Tehran does not sit at the negotiating table on a new “nuclear deal”. There are different estimates of the real ability of the United States to bring Iran to its knees. But what if the American president still decides to take this adventure? What will be the Kremlin’s reaction: “deep concern” or direct assistance to the Islamic Republic? Who is Tehran for Moscow - a temporary travel companion or strategic ally in the region?
Iran is the heir to the ancient Persian empire. The first contacts with this country were established under Rurikovich. Over the past centuries, relationships have been very different. Especially ambiguous, but at the same time they were close during the Soviet era. The collapse of the Soviet Union was a big blow to the relationship between Tehran and Moscow. Attempts to establish bilateral relations were often hindered by Washington’s “long arm,” for example, which prevented arms supplies to Iran in 1995.
Today, the Islamic Republic is a major player in the Middle East. Tehran has huge reserves of oil and gas, was able to survive for decades under Western sanctions and not "bend", is actively policies in the region. It was Iran that first came to the aid of official Damascus in the fight against the invaders and helped President Bashar al-Assad stay in power. Through Iraq and Syria, Tehran intends to gain its own access to the sea. The Iranians are expanding military infrastructure in the SAR, bringing it closer to the borders of their sworn enemy of Israel, supporting Shiite armed groups in neighboring Lebanon. The Islamic Republic has made great strides in its missile program; in the future, it could receive nuclear weapons.
All this is terribly disliked by the Israelis and their allies Americans. Both of them want to stop Iran’s nuclear program. The United States and Israel also intend to squeeze out the Iranian military presence from Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Since the IDF’s regular air strikes and ultimatums do not work, the parties intend to use the help of the Kremlin.
What does Moscow want? The question is not idle; the answer to it must be determined.
On the one handDespite the bilateral support of Damascus, the Russian and Iranian leaders clearly have different views on the future of the ATS and the Middle East as a whole. For Iranians, Israelis, Turks and Arabs are traditional opponents, for the Kremlin are partners. With all due respect for Tehran’s right to protect sovereignty, Moscow is unlikely to be very happy if the Islamic Republic has its own nuclear arsenal with delivery vehicles.
On the other hand, Iran has proved its readiness to uphold national sovereignty by all means. In addition, it is a large market, the country is extremely rich in hydrocarbons, which now under the conditions of sanctions there will be no one to sell. The project of the Iranian railway, which can connect the Caspian through Iraq with Syrian Latakia, is objectively beneficial for Russia, as it will provide an opportunity to reliably supply our military contingent in the SAR. From Latakia to Khmeimim there is a stone's throw, and today you have to literally sail over three seas, which, if desired, can be blocked for us by US allies.
If earlier the word "ally" at the official level and in the media was avoided to use in relation to Iran, now there are big changes. President Putin said this about the possibility of some kind of deal to squeeze out Iranians from Syria:
And at a meeting in Jerusalem between Nikolai Patrushev and John Bolton, a Russian said bluntly:
Still an ally? It turns out that the Kremlin has already decided on its attitude towards Iran?
Iran is the heir to the ancient Persian empire. The first contacts with this country were established under Rurikovich. Over the past centuries, relationships have been very different. Especially ambiguous, but at the same time they were close during the Soviet era. The collapse of the Soviet Union was a big blow to the relationship between Tehran and Moscow. Attempts to establish bilateral relations were often hindered by Washington’s “long arm,” for example, which prevented arms supplies to Iran in 1995.
Today, the Islamic Republic is a major player in the Middle East. Tehran has huge reserves of oil and gas, was able to survive for decades under Western sanctions and not "bend", is actively policies in the region. It was Iran that first came to the aid of official Damascus in the fight against the invaders and helped President Bashar al-Assad stay in power. Through Iraq and Syria, Tehran intends to gain its own access to the sea. The Iranians are expanding military infrastructure in the SAR, bringing it closer to the borders of their sworn enemy of Israel, supporting Shiite armed groups in neighboring Lebanon. The Islamic Republic has made great strides in its missile program; in the future, it could receive nuclear weapons.
All this is terribly disliked by the Israelis and their allies Americans. Both of them want to stop Iran’s nuclear program. The United States and Israel also intend to squeeze out the Iranian military presence from Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Since the IDF’s regular air strikes and ultimatums do not work, the parties intend to use the help of the Kremlin.
What does Moscow want? The question is not idle; the answer to it must be determined.
On the one handDespite the bilateral support of Damascus, the Russian and Iranian leaders clearly have different views on the future of the ATS and the Middle East as a whole. For Iranians, Israelis, Turks and Arabs are traditional opponents, for the Kremlin are partners. With all due respect for Tehran’s right to protect sovereignty, Moscow is unlikely to be very happy if the Islamic Republic has its own nuclear arsenal with delivery vehicles.
On the other hand, Iran has proved its readiness to uphold national sovereignty by all means. In addition, it is a large market, the country is extremely rich in hydrocarbons, which now under the conditions of sanctions there will be no one to sell. The project of the Iranian railway, which can connect the Caspian through Iraq with Syrian Latakia, is objectively beneficial for Russia, as it will provide an opportunity to reliably supply our military contingent in the SAR. From Latakia to Khmeimim there is a stone's throw, and today you have to literally sail over three seas, which, if desired, can be blocked for us by US allies.
If earlier the word "ally" at the official level and in the media was avoided to use in relation to Iran, now there are big changes. President Putin said this about the possibility of some kind of deal to squeeze out Iranians from Syria:
What does a deal mean? This is some kind of commercial enterprise, shares. We do not trade neither our allies, nor our interests, nor our principles.
And at a meeting in Jerusalem between Nikolai Patrushev and John Bolton, a Russian said bluntly:
In the context of the assessments made by our partners regarding a major regional power, which is Iran, I would like to note the following: Iran has been and remains our ally and partner with whom we are consistently developing relations both bilaterally and in multilateral formats.
Still an ally? It turns out that the Kremlin has already decided on its attitude towards Iran?
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