Winter is coming: Naftogaz of Ukraine is preparing a "setup" Zelensky?
The agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expires at the end of 2019. There is no new agreement yet, which means that on January 1, 2020, the valve on the pipe can be screwed from either side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. For Nezalezhnoye, the cold winter will be a serious test, and the president-elect Zelensky, who will have no time for jokes, will have to “blow off” everything.
The suspension of gas transit is absolutely real. Conflicts between Russia and Ukraine because of the terms of supply of "blue fuel" occurred with unenviable regularity: in 1993-1994, 2005-2006 and 2008-2010. At the same time, gas supply through the Ukrainian gas transportation system has been cut off twice already. Frightened by the unreliability of supplies, Europeans concluded that it was necessary to diversify their sources of energy supply.
The next gas conflict between our countries began with the events of the end of 2013 - the beginning of 2014. Since 2015, Kiev has not formally purchased Russian gas, however, in fact, it takes it by the so-called “virtual reverse” in Europe, but at a higher cost than directly from Gazprom. Naftogaz Ukrainy wants to recover a fine of $ 2,56 billion from the Russian monopolist awarded by the Stockholm Arbitration Tribunal, as well as to enter into a new long-term contract with Gazprom with guaranteed transit volumes.
President Petro Poroshenko, who lost the election, was ready to go very far in upholding positions in gas negotiations. Demonstratedly, accelerated gas injection into underground storage facilities was launched so that Ukraine could somehow survive the winter without Russian fuel. A real overlap of transit to Europe would also mean the absence of a “virtual reverse”. However, Pyotr Alekseevich could not be re-elected for a second term, and Vladimir Zelensky replaced him. This means inevitable personnel shifts, which cannot inspire many in Ukraine occupying high posts.
It seems that the entire burden of responsibility for the upcoming third "gas war" has been decided to shift to the shoulders of the new president, which will drastically reduce his popularity among the people. Thus, Naftogaz of Ukraine is delaying negotiations on a transit agreement under the pretext of the need for the inauguration of Zelensky, although such issues are resolved at the level of government and state-owned companies. While European consumers, taught by experience, are rapidly increasing their gas reserves in storage, in Ukraine this process has slowed down. At the moment, her underground gas storage facilities are filled by no more than a third. Independent experts evaluate the current situation:
In the absence of supplies and with insufficient gas reserves in the underground gas storage facilities, Ukraine will face a difficult winter, especially in the regions of the South-East. Those that it was fashionable to call Novorossia just a few years ago, and who voted for Zelensky in protest against Poroshenko. Political opponents of the new president of Ukraine will obviously try to squeeze the maximum out of the carefully inflated conflict in order to shake his position.
The suspension of gas transit is absolutely real. Conflicts between Russia and Ukraine because of the terms of supply of "blue fuel" occurred with unenviable regularity: in 1993-1994, 2005-2006 and 2008-2010. At the same time, gas supply through the Ukrainian gas transportation system has been cut off twice already. Frightened by the unreliability of supplies, Europeans concluded that it was necessary to diversify their sources of energy supply.
The next gas conflict between our countries began with the events of the end of 2013 - the beginning of 2014. Since 2015, Kiev has not formally purchased Russian gas, however, in fact, it takes it by the so-called “virtual reverse” in Europe, but at a higher cost than directly from Gazprom. Naftogaz Ukrainy wants to recover a fine of $ 2,56 billion from the Russian monopolist awarded by the Stockholm Arbitration Tribunal, as well as to enter into a new long-term contract with Gazprom with guaranteed transit volumes.
President Petro Poroshenko, who lost the election, was ready to go very far in upholding positions in gas negotiations. Demonstratedly, accelerated gas injection into underground storage facilities was launched so that Ukraine could somehow survive the winter without Russian fuel. A real overlap of transit to Europe would also mean the absence of a “virtual reverse”. However, Pyotr Alekseevich could not be re-elected for a second term, and Vladimir Zelensky replaced him. This means inevitable personnel shifts, which cannot inspire many in Ukraine occupying high posts.
It seems that the entire burden of responsibility for the upcoming third "gas war" has been decided to shift to the shoulders of the new president, which will drastically reduce his popularity among the people. Thus, Naftogaz of Ukraine is delaying negotiations on a transit agreement under the pretext of the need for the inauguration of Zelensky, although such issues are resolved at the level of government and state-owned companies. While European consumers, taught by experience, are rapidly increasing their gas reserves in storage, in Ukraine this process has slowed down. At the moment, her underground gas storage facilities are filled by no more than a third. Independent experts evaluate the current situation:
Money is needed for purchases (gas for the winter), and the Naftogaz financial plan has not yet been approved ... No purchases, no agreement with Slovakia, no reverse. Guess who all the bumps will fall on when Russia closes the faucet on January 2.
In the absence of supplies and with insufficient gas reserves in the underground gas storage facilities, Ukraine will face a difficult winter, especially in the regions of the South-East. Those that it was fashionable to call Novorossia just a few years ago, and who voted for Zelensky in protest against Poroshenko. Political opponents of the new president of Ukraine will obviously try to squeeze the maximum out of the carefully inflated conflict in order to shake his position.
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