Russian paradox: “de-dollarization” of the economy led to its “dollarization”
The introduction of anti-Russian sanctions and the threat of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system became the impetus for the so-called "dedollarization" economics. According to Article 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the introduction, that is, the use in circulation, of a currency other than the Russian ruble is prohibited. From the February report of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it follows that "devaluation takes place generally at a moderate and balanced pace." But is it really so? Let's try to figure it out.
If you believe the data of the department of Elvira Nabiullina, the total assets of the banking sector of Russia for the year decreased by 4,9%, amounting to $ 2019 billion by February 309,5, and its foreign currency liabilities decreased by 5%. Can this be considered positive dynamics? Yes. But some experts believe that this is a merit not so much of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of “Western partners”: the imposition of sanctions and the threat of new ones, a change in the key rate of the US Federal Reserve, etc. The domestic regulator is more adapted to the rules of the game of others than it sets its own.
The famous Russian economist Professor Katasonov even expresses seditious thought:
Unfortunately, practice confirms the words of an independent expert. In fact, instead of "dedollarization" there is a "dollarization" of the domestic economy. In particular, the share of foreign currency deposits among bank deposits from 2018 to 2019 increased by 1,4% percentage points: from 25,9 to 27,3.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation itself increased its reserves of cash foreign currency. So, in 2015, they amounted to only 1,4 billion dollars, and as of September 1, 2018 - already 31,2 billion. By some estimates, by April 2019, they could already be $ 39 billion.
But that is not all. It is necessary to take into account foreign currency, which is in the hands of the population. Demand for it is growing at a frantic pace: in 2017, Russians kept about 53,88 billion dollars in banks, glass, and under a mattress, in 2018 - 73,56 billion, and in 2019 - 83,88 billion!
And this is just what the regulator can officially count. However, there is also contraband of foreign currency. Our Central Bank does not make such calculations, but the Americans themselves have established that 80% of the output of their printing press is used abroad, of which 20% to 25% are deposited in the Russian Federation in the hands of the population. The European Central Bank also made its calculations. It turned out that there are about 350 billion euros outside the eurozone, 20% of which, that is, 70 billion euros, is in our country.
According to Professor Katasonov, the amount of foreign currency in modern Russia can at least equal the total ruble mass, or even surpass it. This is, you see, "dedollarization."
If you believe the data of the department of Elvira Nabiullina, the total assets of the banking sector of Russia for the year decreased by 4,9%, amounting to $ 2019 billion by February 309,5, and its foreign currency liabilities decreased by 5%. Can this be considered positive dynamics? Yes. But some experts believe that this is a merit not so much of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of “Western partners”: the imposition of sanctions and the threat of new ones, a change in the key rate of the US Federal Reserve, etc. The domestic regulator is more adapted to the rules of the game of others than it sets its own.
The famous Russian economist Professor Katasonov even expresses seditious thought:
The Bank of Russia (in tandem with the Ministry of Finance of Russia) is doing everything possible to ensure that the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, euro and other international currencies does not grow, but falls. And if so, then everyone will run from the ruble to stronger and growing currencies. The Bank of Russia plays on the side of the US dollar against the Russian ruble.
Unfortunately, practice confirms the words of an independent expert. In fact, instead of "dedollarization" there is a "dollarization" of the domestic economy. In particular, the share of foreign currency deposits among bank deposits from 2018 to 2019 increased by 1,4% percentage points: from 25,9 to 27,3.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation itself increased its reserves of cash foreign currency. So, in 2015, they amounted to only 1,4 billion dollars, and as of September 1, 2018 - already 31,2 billion. By some estimates, by April 2019, they could already be $ 39 billion.
But that is not all. It is necessary to take into account foreign currency, which is in the hands of the population. Demand for it is growing at a frantic pace: in 2017, Russians kept about 53,88 billion dollars in banks, glass, and under a mattress, in 2018 - 73,56 billion, and in 2019 - 83,88 billion!
And this is just what the regulator can officially count. However, there is also contraband of foreign currency. Our Central Bank does not make such calculations, but the Americans themselves have established that 80% of the output of their printing press is used abroad, of which 20% to 25% are deposited in the Russian Federation in the hands of the population. The European Central Bank also made its calculations. It turned out that there are about 350 billion euros outside the eurozone, 20% of which, that is, 70 billion euros, is in our country.
According to Professor Katasonov, the amount of foreign currency in modern Russia can at least equal the total ruble mass, or even surpass it. This is, you see, "dedollarization."
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