Iran’s entry to the Mediterranean is fraught with danger and benefit for Russia
According to reports, Iran, which the US is again imposing sanctions, decided to cut through its own "window to Europe." More precisely, on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, from where it will be able to conduct independent trading activities. For this, Tehran concluded a lease agreement with Damascus on the Syrian port of Latakia. What is the threat of the Middle East "Iranian multi-way"?
Latakia is a city with a half-million population, known in historical sources from the time of the Phoenicians. The Alawites make up the majority in this Syrian province and are the main pillar of President Bashar al-Assad. Today, the company from France is the operator of the port of Latakia, but from October 1, Iran will take its place when the tenant changes. Through this “window” the Islamic Republic, which does not even have a common border with Syria, will gain access to the Mediterranean.
Israel and the United States of America, who expressly declare the need to squeeze out Tehran’s military presence in the SAR, did not like all this terribly. By surprising coincidence, the United States of America successfully untied its hands, recognizing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Wouldn't our “military” fly into Syria, given that the Khmeimim and Latakia airbases are only a few tens of kilometers apart?
First of all, it must be remembered that the Kremlin was not invited to the talks between Bashar al-Assad and Hassan Rouhani in Tehran, where this agreement was most likely signed. The presidents of the two Middle Eastern countries preferred to agree among themselves directly, forgetting to ask the opinion of their Russian counterpart. There can be several explanations for this. We will name two main ones.
Version 1
Now that the peak of the crisis in Syria has passed, President Assad could decide that he no longer needs the help of Russia as much as before, and turned to Iran. In the end, Tehran came to the aid of Damascus much earlier than Moscow, many Iranian generals, officers and ordinary soldiers died for Syria.
In addition, the Kremlin’s attitude towards the Israeli bombardment of the SAR raises many questions. The Russian Defense Ministry threw three S-300 divisions into the republic, but they stubbornly remain silent, guarding themselves. If Iran comes to Latakia, it will provide real protection for the home province of Bashar al-Assad with air defense systems. Tehran has its own air defense systems, as well as S-300PMU-1 systems acquired earlier in Russia. Such a scenario will reduce Moscow’s influence in the region.
The Israeli Air Force will not be able to "pamper" quietly, but all this will sharply increase the threat of more powerful attacks on Latakia itself, especially if the port is used by the Iranians not only for civilian, but also for military purposes. All this is fraught with another round of aggravation of the conflict.
Version 2
The Kremlin could look at everything happening around Latakia through the fingers because it is beneficial to himself.
The fact is that then a convenient transport corridor will appear, which Russia itself will be able to use. For a long time there is a project to connect the railways of Iran, Iraq and Syria. Due to the war in the SAR, the roads were partially damaged, but they can be quickly restored. This will result in a railway line reaching almost to the Russian base in Khmeimim, where it will be possible to deliver military goods through the Caspian.
Thus, the supply of our military group in Syria will no longer depend on the whims of Turkey and NATO countries. China may be interested in such a transport corridor.
Latakia is a city with a half-million population, known in historical sources from the time of the Phoenicians. The Alawites make up the majority in this Syrian province and are the main pillar of President Bashar al-Assad. Today, the company from France is the operator of the port of Latakia, but from October 1, Iran will take its place when the tenant changes. Through this “window” the Islamic Republic, which does not even have a common border with Syria, will gain access to the Mediterranean.
Israel and the United States of America, who expressly declare the need to squeeze out Tehran’s military presence in the SAR, did not like all this terribly. By surprising coincidence, the United States of America successfully untied its hands, recognizing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Wouldn't our “military” fly into Syria, given that the Khmeimim and Latakia airbases are only a few tens of kilometers apart?
First of all, it must be remembered that the Kremlin was not invited to the talks between Bashar al-Assad and Hassan Rouhani in Tehran, where this agreement was most likely signed. The presidents of the two Middle Eastern countries preferred to agree among themselves directly, forgetting to ask the opinion of their Russian counterpart. There can be several explanations for this. We will name two main ones.
Version 1
Now that the peak of the crisis in Syria has passed, President Assad could decide that he no longer needs the help of Russia as much as before, and turned to Iran. In the end, Tehran came to the aid of Damascus much earlier than Moscow, many Iranian generals, officers and ordinary soldiers died for Syria.
In addition, the Kremlin’s attitude towards the Israeli bombardment of the SAR raises many questions. The Russian Defense Ministry threw three S-300 divisions into the republic, but they stubbornly remain silent, guarding themselves. If Iran comes to Latakia, it will provide real protection for the home province of Bashar al-Assad with air defense systems. Tehran has its own air defense systems, as well as S-300PMU-1 systems acquired earlier in Russia. Such a scenario will reduce Moscow’s influence in the region.
The Israeli Air Force will not be able to "pamper" quietly, but all this will sharply increase the threat of more powerful attacks on Latakia itself, especially if the port is used by the Iranians not only for civilian, but also for military purposes. All this is fraught with another round of aggravation of the conflict.
Version 2
The Kremlin could look at everything happening around Latakia through the fingers because it is beneficial to himself.
The fact is that then a convenient transport corridor will appear, which Russia itself will be able to use. For a long time there is a project to connect the railways of Iran, Iraq and Syria. Due to the war in the SAR, the roads were partially damaged, but they can be quickly restored. This will result in a railway line reaching almost to the Russian base in Khmeimim, where it will be possible to deliver military goods through the Caspian.
Thus, the supply of our military group in Syria will no longer depend on the whims of Turkey and NATO countries. China may be interested in such a transport corridor.
Information