Denial of the dollar: why Russia needs to hurry
Having finished the "showdown" with their own president (at least for a while), the inhabitants of Capitol Hill again set about their favorite thing - "the fight against the Russian threat." A bill on new anti-Russian sanctions has been submitted to the US Congress, aimed primarily against the financial system of our country. In light of this, the question of maximum de-dollarization of the Russian Federation is becoming not only special, but extremely urgent. economics. It is this process that can allow minimizing the harmful effect of the new restrictions, mitigate the damage from them and “leave the nose” of Russophobes from Washington.
Under the new sanctions project, assets in the United States may be frozen and a ban on opening correspondent accounts for “a number of Russian banks” may be introduced. Most likely, we are talking about such “pillars” of the domestic financial system as Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank, Sberbank, Russian Agricultural Bank, VTB. It should be understood that the main purpose of these restrictions is nothing more than the complete destruction of the system of currency correspondent accounts operating within Russia. How? We will try to explain: for the enormous influence that Washington has today on our financial system (as well as on the banking sector of most other countries of the world), a big "thank you" should be said to the FATCA extraterritorial law adopted in the USA in 2010. According to him, information about any persons and companies that are US taxpayers is provided to this country without fail by banks of any state in the world. The slightest violations, as they say, are "very fraught" and "strictly subject." Having seen in the activities of any financial institution an attempt to circumvent or ignore the FATCA, US supervisory authorities can give him a luxurious "bouquet" of troubles - up to the complete blocking of all accounts and operations.
About the same thing, only in an even tougher form provides for a new bill. In theory, having seen in the activities of any Russian bank “financing the intervention in the American elections” or, which is simpler, declaring them “under the control of the Russian government” and, moreover, in its ownership, Washington will begin to block any of their transactions through the US financial the system. In the case, it’s already going to the financial war “to annihilation”, the US’s favorite repressive instrument for such cases will be used - SWIFT, and we will focus on the suspension of all operations that our banks are forced to conduct through it so far. Well, the arrests already mentioned above, or at least the freezing of the “wrong” Russian financial institutions and companies wherever Americans can reach them.
Prospects arising from such opportunities? Let's face it - joyless. And if we talk about the further development of events ... An extremely unpleasant feature of the new sanctions is that for the first time, albeit not directly, they are threatening the Central Bank of Russia. All over the world, these organizations are considered to be “untouchable” and not subject to restrictions, even if they are introduced against a particular country. The only exceptions are the Central banks of those states that are declared by the United States "rogue countries", "sponsors of international terrorism" and so on. North Korea, Libya, Iran, Syria ... By the way, which is very characteristic - one of the main “sins” of these banks that raised them to the top of Washington’s blacklist is not only that they belong to the state sector of countries with “dictatorial” regimes, ”and also the fact that in all these countries at one time or another, attempts were made (or are being done now) to get rid of the dollar dictatorship to the maximum.
With him, however, everything is not so bad as with the ones mentioned above - they are not disconnecting from SWIFT, assets are not blocking. However, the fact that the package of impending restrictions for the first time provides for measures specifically affecting it cannot but alarm. We are talking about a ban on the purchase of not only government bonds of Russia, but also any debt securities of its Central Bank, which it will no longer be possible to place on the global financial markets. The funny thing is that such a placement has never, in fact, been practiced - apparently, Washington simply "insures for the future." But the second measure, which makes it impossible for our Central Bank to attract short-term loans for so-called swap operations to Russia from abroad, is already much more serious. Russian state financiers also do not abuse this tool, however, they periodically use it: this was the case in 2009, and in 2017. The main question that arises as a result is - to what limits will they reach in their desire to annoy our "sworn friends" from across the ocean with the tougher Russian financial system? It’s not an hour, and the disconnection of the Central Bank of Russia from international payment systems, and the freezing of its currency assets may become a reality.
Here is the time to mention that the financial system of any country is vulnerable to attacks from Washington, first of all, by using the US currency in it. All dollar transactions conducted in the world are somehow controlled by the United States. There are no "green" in mutual settlements - there is no American control over them. That is why the process of maximally ridding our economy of the participation and influence of the “enemy” currency is not just the right decision, but the arch-correct one, as the “leader of the world proletariat” would say on this occasion. Alas, he started with a fair delay - but here it is certainly better later than never. One of the main tools of dedollarization is, of course, the rejection of American money as a component of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. Last year alone, their dollar share fell by almost half - from 43,7% to about 22%. According to official figures, this year (as of February) the dollar-denominated assets of Russian banks have decreased by almost 5%. Nevertheless, in the total volume of their assets, the American currency is still about 305 billion dollars, so that in the chosen direction still move and move.
At one time, vicious critics and self-proclaimed experts addressed the Russian authorities, and specifically the Central Bank, a lot of taunts were expressed about “unsuccessful attempts at dedollarization”. Like, they throw money away, investing "in the wrong currencies." Well, if the “experiments” of the Central Bank with the Chinese yuan can be considered quite controversial (although the one who does nothing is right), then there can be no doubt about the main instrument of the “anti-dollar struggle” chosen by our country. The bet on the noble metal made in the replacement of the state’s dangerous components of the gold and foreign exchange reserves turned out to be the only right and possible solution. This becomes especially obvious after, without exaggeration, the fateful event - the entry into force on March 29 of a decision adopted in 2011 by the Banking Supervision Committee of the Bank for International Settlements. This financial institution with headquarters in Switzerland, in fact, is the authority that approves the standards and norms of activity for all financiers of the world - first of all, for the central banks of various countries.
On his decision, which has the unofficial name of "Basel III," by golly, it is worthwhile to dwell in detail. Indeed, in accordance with it, from now on, the share of capital of all banks, stored in gold, is estimated in the volume of the full, and not half, market value of this precious metal, as it was before! This, of course, is not a return to the gold currency standard. But, definitely - the first step to it. And the leap is seven-foot. The United States system unilaterally broken in 1971, the gold standard system was one of the most important milestones in Washington’s dismantling of the entire system of world relations that developed after the Second World War. This was done, of course, in order to establish the world hegemony of the United States, and the imposition of the dollar on the world as the only, in fact, universal currency, played a huge role in achieving this goal. Recall: according to the results of the Bretton Woods conference held in 1944, after the war, dollar and gold were to become world money. However, having refused in 1971 the free exchange of US treasury bills for “hard currency” or bank bullions, the Americans finally turned gold into a noble, precious - but still, ordinary metal.
The icy wind of another global financial crisis approaching the world, the clear realization that all the shocks of world financial markets have their source in the United States, or rather, the overwhelming dominance of their currency - all this makes financiers think about the need to take the most drastic measures to protect their capital. No one is interested in the fact that a sinking dollar would “drag to the bottom” for itself and the entire world economy. And although it is unlikely that a large minting of gold coins is expected in the near future, however, the ice has broken, as they say - gold triumphantly returns slowly to the financial markets of the planet, where it reigned for millennia. Proof of this is more than 650 tons of this metal, purchased by central banks of various countries during 2018. This figure is a record for the entire period, taking a reference point in the memorable 1971.
The good news is that 42% of the above-mentioned volume of purchased precious metal are just purchases made by the Central Bank of Russia - almost 275 tons. This is the largest indicator in the world. Following us in the list of "wealthy" countries are Turkey and Kazakhstan. China and India are actively building up their gold reserves. Today, Russia is the country with the fourth gold reserve in the world. And it inspires hope. Of course, you can’t get out on one “yellow metal” - Washington is too serious for us. Therefore, the domestic SPFS - the Financial Message Transfer System should be developed and expanded as much as possible now - while there is no talk of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT yet. Then it may be too late. As of last year, this system had about 500 users, including giants such as Rosneft and Gazprom. However, the problem is different - SPFS desperately needs to go beyond Russia, while foreign users are only timidly trying to connect to it. Old and tested options, the same SWIFT and more familiar and reliable.
This is where Moscow needs to make the most of all the opportunities that the United States itself, in fact, provides it with. It is necessary to “play” on American sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, and even against the DPRK! And consider the situation not from the perspective of “no matter what happens” (it has already happened, but it will be even worse!), But exclusively from the point of view of “just to be in time”! Do not be afraid to “anger” or “provoke” Washington to new sanctions, but to act in advance of its decisions, calculating the development of events according to the worst-case scenario. If the Kremlin fails to correctly use the totality of the US economic contradictions and conflicts existing in the world today, not only with the aforementioned states, but, above all, with China, the countries of Europe, Turkey, they will not put together an “anti-dollar”, but, in fact, anti-American bloc - alone we have to be bad. The economic Third World War is already on and no one will fight in a knightly way.
Under the new sanctions project, assets in the United States may be frozen and a ban on opening correspondent accounts for “a number of Russian banks” may be introduced. Most likely, we are talking about such “pillars” of the domestic financial system as Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank, Sberbank, Russian Agricultural Bank, VTB. It should be understood that the main purpose of these restrictions is nothing more than the complete destruction of the system of currency correspondent accounts operating within Russia. How? We will try to explain: for the enormous influence that Washington has today on our financial system (as well as on the banking sector of most other countries of the world), a big "thank you" should be said to the FATCA extraterritorial law adopted in the USA in 2010. According to him, information about any persons and companies that are US taxpayers is provided to this country without fail by banks of any state in the world. The slightest violations, as they say, are "very fraught" and "strictly subject." Having seen in the activities of any financial institution an attempt to circumvent or ignore the FATCA, US supervisory authorities can give him a luxurious "bouquet" of troubles - up to the complete blocking of all accounts and operations.
About the same thing, only in an even tougher form provides for a new bill. In theory, having seen in the activities of any Russian bank “financing the intervention in the American elections” or, which is simpler, declaring them “under the control of the Russian government” and, moreover, in its ownership, Washington will begin to block any of their transactions through the US financial the system. In the case, it’s already going to the financial war “to annihilation”, the US’s favorite repressive instrument for such cases will be used - SWIFT, and we will focus on the suspension of all operations that our banks are forced to conduct through it so far. Well, the arrests already mentioned above, or at least the freezing of the “wrong” Russian financial institutions and companies wherever Americans can reach them.
Prospects arising from such opportunities? Let's face it - joyless. And if we talk about the further development of events ... An extremely unpleasant feature of the new sanctions is that for the first time, albeit not directly, they are threatening the Central Bank of Russia. All over the world, these organizations are considered to be “untouchable” and not subject to restrictions, even if they are introduced against a particular country. The only exceptions are the Central banks of those states that are declared by the United States "rogue countries", "sponsors of international terrorism" and so on. North Korea, Libya, Iran, Syria ... By the way, which is very characteristic - one of the main “sins” of these banks that raised them to the top of Washington’s blacklist is not only that they belong to the state sector of countries with “dictatorial” regimes, ”and also the fact that in all these countries at one time or another, attempts were made (or are being done now) to get rid of the dollar dictatorship to the maximum.
With him, however, everything is not so bad as with the ones mentioned above - they are not disconnecting from SWIFT, assets are not blocking. However, the fact that the package of impending restrictions for the first time provides for measures specifically affecting it cannot but alarm. We are talking about a ban on the purchase of not only government bonds of Russia, but also any debt securities of its Central Bank, which it will no longer be possible to place on the global financial markets. The funny thing is that such a placement has never, in fact, been practiced - apparently, Washington simply "insures for the future." But the second measure, which makes it impossible for our Central Bank to attract short-term loans for so-called swap operations to Russia from abroad, is already much more serious. Russian state financiers also do not abuse this tool, however, they periodically use it: this was the case in 2009, and in 2017. The main question that arises as a result is - to what limits will they reach in their desire to annoy our "sworn friends" from across the ocean with the tougher Russian financial system? It’s not an hour, and the disconnection of the Central Bank of Russia from international payment systems, and the freezing of its currency assets may become a reality.
Here is the time to mention that the financial system of any country is vulnerable to attacks from Washington, first of all, by using the US currency in it. All dollar transactions conducted in the world are somehow controlled by the United States. There are no "green" in mutual settlements - there is no American control over them. That is why the process of maximally ridding our economy of the participation and influence of the “enemy” currency is not just the right decision, but the arch-correct one, as the “leader of the world proletariat” would say on this occasion. Alas, he started with a fair delay - but here it is certainly better later than never. One of the main tools of dedollarization is, of course, the rejection of American money as a component of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. Last year alone, their dollar share fell by almost half - from 43,7% to about 22%. According to official figures, this year (as of February) the dollar-denominated assets of Russian banks have decreased by almost 5%. Nevertheless, in the total volume of their assets, the American currency is still about 305 billion dollars, so that in the chosen direction still move and move.
At one time, vicious critics and self-proclaimed experts addressed the Russian authorities, and specifically the Central Bank, a lot of taunts were expressed about “unsuccessful attempts at dedollarization”. Like, they throw money away, investing "in the wrong currencies." Well, if the “experiments” of the Central Bank with the Chinese yuan can be considered quite controversial (although the one who does nothing is right), then there can be no doubt about the main instrument of the “anti-dollar struggle” chosen by our country. The bet on the noble metal made in the replacement of the state’s dangerous components of the gold and foreign exchange reserves turned out to be the only right and possible solution. This becomes especially obvious after, without exaggeration, the fateful event - the entry into force on March 29 of a decision adopted in 2011 by the Banking Supervision Committee of the Bank for International Settlements. This financial institution with headquarters in Switzerland, in fact, is the authority that approves the standards and norms of activity for all financiers of the world - first of all, for the central banks of various countries.
On his decision, which has the unofficial name of "Basel III," by golly, it is worthwhile to dwell in detail. Indeed, in accordance with it, from now on, the share of capital of all banks, stored in gold, is estimated in the volume of the full, and not half, market value of this precious metal, as it was before! This, of course, is not a return to the gold currency standard. But, definitely - the first step to it. And the leap is seven-foot. The United States system unilaterally broken in 1971, the gold standard system was one of the most important milestones in Washington’s dismantling of the entire system of world relations that developed after the Second World War. This was done, of course, in order to establish the world hegemony of the United States, and the imposition of the dollar on the world as the only, in fact, universal currency, played a huge role in achieving this goal. Recall: according to the results of the Bretton Woods conference held in 1944, after the war, dollar and gold were to become world money. However, having refused in 1971 the free exchange of US treasury bills for “hard currency” or bank bullions, the Americans finally turned gold into a noble, precious - but still, ordinary metal.
The icy wind of another global financial crisis approaching the world, the clear realization that all the shocks of world financial markets have their source in the United States, or rather, the overwhelming dominance of their currency - all this makes financiers think about the need to take the most drastic measures to protect their capital. No one is interested in the fact that a sinking dollar would “drag to the bottom” for itself and the entire world economy. And although it is unlikely that a large minting of gold coins is expected in the near future, however, the ice has broken, as they say - gold triumphantly returns slowly to the financial markets of the planet, where it reigned for millennia. Proof of this is more than 650 tons of this metal, purchased by central banks of various countries during 2018. This figure is a record for the entire period, taking a reference point in the memorable 1971.
The good news is that 42% of the above-mentioned volume of purchased precious metal are just purchases made by the Central Bank of Russia - almost 275 tons. This is the largest indicator in the world. Following us in the list of "wealthy" countries are Turkey and Kazakhstan. China and India are actively building up their gold reserves. Today, Russia is the country with the fourth gold reserve in the world. And it inspires hope. Of course, you can’t get out on one “yellow metal” - Washington is too serious for us. Therefore, the domestic SPFS - the Financial Message Transfer System should be developed and expanded as much as possible now - while there is no talk of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT yet. Then it may be too late. As of last year, this system had about 500 users, including giants such as Rosneft and Gazprom. However, the problem is different - SPFS desperately needs to go beyond Russia, while foreign users are only timidly trying to connect to it. Old and tested options, the same SWIFT and more familiar and reliable.
This is where Moscow needs to make the most of all the opportunities that the United States itself, in fact, provides it with. It is necessary to “play” on American sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, and even against the DPRK! And consider the situation not from the perspective of “no matter what happens” (it has already happened, but it will be even worse!), But exclusively from the point of view of “just to be in time”! Do not be afraid to “anger” or “provoke” Washington to new sanctions, but to act in advance of its decisions, calculating the development of events according to the worst-case scenario. If the Kremlin fails to correctly use the totality of the US economic contradictions and conflicts existing in the world today, not only with the aforementioned states, but, above all, with China, the countries of Europe, Turkey, they will not put together an “anti-dollar”, but, in fact, anti-American bloc - alone we have to be bad. The economic Third World War is already on and no one will fight in a knightly way.
Information