IL-62 and An-124 in Venezuela: Is Russia doing the right thing in helping Caracas?
One of the most talked about News The end of last week was the appearance in Venezuela of two Russian aerospace forces at once — the Il-62 and An-124, which delivered there not only our military, but also some “important cargo”, also, it seemed, not for civilian use. At the same time, the Russian “sides” allegedly arrived in Latin America not directly from our country, but via Syria. According to reports that appeared in the domestic media, the purpose of this visit is “bilateral consultations” on military contracts between states. All this gives rise to once again ask the question: is it worth Russia to provide open military support to Caracas now?
It should be noted that there are different opinions on this matter - right up to the diametrically opposite. Someone is sure that Moscow should oppose Washington in all conceivable and inconceivable directions, by any means available. Therefore, our military presence in Venezuela, and not just hidden, but explicit and even demonstrative, is the right decision. To some, such behavior, on the contrary, seems reckless and unreasonable: "Do we want to get involved in another war?" There are those who believe that “teasing” the United States, and so furious with the support provided by Russia to Nicholas Maduro, means, at a minimum, “running into” a new portion of sanctions, in addition to the already existing ones. Let's try to figure out which judgments are closer to the truth.
To begin with, there is, fortunately, no war in which our country could be drawn into Venezuela, and such is unlikely to start. The United States has already ignored two of the occasions they typically use to launch an invasion in such circumstances. They did not take advantage of the clashes on the borders of Venezuela when trying to transfer American “humanitarian aid” there, or the crisis that arose in the country after a total power outage (most likely, the United States and the organized one). By the standards of Washington - for intervention, prepositions are even wherever, however, even Maduro’s most ardent opponents had the reason not to start it. The legitimate president enjoys too firm support from the army and special services to count on a “jaunt in this case,” and the Americans do not want to conduct real hostilities.
The military danger from the neighbors of Venezuela is also extremely doubtful. They can shake the air as threatening statements as they like, creating “political Blocks ”, the purpose of which is proclaimed“ the settlement of the Venezuelan crisis, ”but it is unlikely that things will go beyond talk. The presidents of Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Peru, who gathered in Santiago, could publicly bow before Guaido, who portrayed there the "legitimate ruler of Venezuela" - that's just Maduro and his military did not give a damn about it. As well as the recognition or non-recognition of the European Union and many others. He is not going to give up without a fight to anyone, but to fight with him seriously, I repeat, there are no fools in Latin America.
But in Venezuela itself, the situation seems to be approaching a denouement. Maduro, who, as you can see, is tired of the constant threats uttered by his opponent (invariably from a safe distance), little by little begins to move to more and more stringent methods of restoring order. The arrest of Guaido's secretary, Roberto Morrero, most likely, is in this process only the notorious “first swallow”. In any case, the president himself does not get tired of talking about the uncovered conspiracy to kill him, claims that the country's prosecutor’s office "has made great progress in the investigation" and is announcing new arrests of "terrorists and conspirators." All this could be declared the inventions of an overly emotional leader, if not for a very real attempt to physically eliminate him, which took place on August 1, 2018. After that very real attack, Maduro’s words that they want to eliminate him are simply impossible to ignore. The main thing is that the people seem to believe them.
Guaido, with whom until recently Maduro was ready to negotiate or hold new elections, he now calls nothing more than a "puppet of the devil", meaning the White House as the residence of the prince of darkness. The self-proclaimed “president”, meanwhile, is talking with might and main about the upcoming operation to “relatively honestly take” power from the “criminal regime”. Its pretentious title - “Freedom” with its head betrays authorship, directly pointing to the “screenwriters” from the State Department. Guaido can continue to swagger, claiming that "Maduro’s power is weakening every day." In fact, everything seems to be happening exactly the opposite. If someone is tired of ordinary people, then most likely the one who all this time “stirs up the water” in the country, subjecting it to new and new tests.
Guaido missed the time for a quick seizure of state control over himself, most likely, completely and irrevocably. Hopes that Maduro will “fall apart all by himself”, his supporters will abandon him, and the people will enthusiastically begin to play the “revolution” according to the American scenario did not materialize. Now, it seems, it is impossible to do without external intervention, but it is unlikely that it will follow - including after completely unambiguous statements from Russia that our country will "do everything" so that there is no foreign invasion of Venezuela. With every failed attack on a legitimately elected president, he becomes stronger, and the opposition “loses face” and shows its inability to change anything.
So, Russia now just has to openly support the legitimate authority, ridding very hot heads both in Venezuela and beyond, from the temptations to “go all-in” and still solve the matter in one fell swoop - it’s possible that operation to neutralize Maduro. In the end, no one is trying to deny that Russia's investments in Venezuelan the economy billions of dollars. And in what numbers to evaluate the possible prospects for cooperation between our countries? What is it all to give to the Americans (in case of the victory of Guaido)? Or to the Chinese comrades? And it will be so if Maduro right now, in the days that are decisive for him, will not feel the maximum support of Moscow. The fact that Russia is finally learning to defend its interests and defend its allies and friends without looking back at anyone is right in itself. Great power status is expensive - but worth it.
It should be noted that there are different opinions on this matter - right up to the diametrically opposite. Someone is sure that Moscow should oppose Washington in all conceivable and inconceivable directions, by any means available. Therefore, our military presence in Venezuela, and not just hidden, but explicit and even demonstrative, is the right decision. To some, such behavior, on the contrary, seems reckless and unreasonable: "Do we want to get involved in another war?" There are those who believe that “teasing” the United States, and so furious with the support provided by Russia to Nicholas Maduro, means, at a minimum, “running into” a new portion of sanctions, in addition to the already existing ones. Let's try to figure out which judgments are closer to the truth.
To begin with, there is, fortunately, no war in which our country could be drawn into Venezuela, and such is unlikely to start. The United States has already ignored two of the occasions they typically use to launch an invasion in such circumstances. They did not take advantage of the clashes on the borders of Venezuela when trying to transfer American “humanitarian aid” there, or the crisis that arose in the country after a total power outage (most likely, the United States and the organized one). By the standards of Washington - for intervention, prepositions are even wherever, however, even Maduro’s most ardent opponents had the reason not to start it. The legitimate president enjoys too firm support from the army and special services to count on a “jaunt in this case,” and the Americans do not want to conduct real hostilities.
The military danger from the neighbors of Venezuela is also extremely doubtful. They can shake the air as threatening statements as they like, creating “political Blocks ”, the purpose of which is proclaimed“ the settlement of the Venezuelan crisis, ”but it is unlikely that things will go beyond talk. The presidents of Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Peru, who gathered in Santiago, could publicly bow before Guaido, who portrayed there the "legitimate ruler of Venezuela" - that's just Maduro and his military did not give a damn about it. As well as the recognition or non-recognition of the European Union and many others. He is not going to give up without a fight to anyone, but to fight with him seriously, I repeat, there are no fools in Latin America.
But in Venezuela itself, the situation seems to be approaching a denouement. Maduro, who, as you can see, is tired of the constant threats uttered by his opponent (invariably from a safe distance), little by little begins to move to more and more stringent methods of restoring order. The arrest of Guaido's secretary, Roberto Morrero, most likely, is in this process only the notorious “first swallow”. In any case, the president himself does not get tired of talking about the uncovered conspiracy to kill him, claims that the country's prosecutor’s office "has made great progress in the investigation" and is announcing new arrests of "terrorists and conspirators." All this could be declared the inventions of an overly emotional leader, if not for a very real attempt to physically eliminate him, which took place on August 1, 2018. After that very real attack, Maduro’s words that they want to eliminate him are simply impossible to ignore. The main thing is that the people seem to believe them.
Guaido, with whom until recently Maduro was ready to negotiate or hold new elections, he now calls nothing more than a "puppet of the devil", meaning the White House as the residence of the prince of darkness. The self-proclaimed “president”, meanwhile, is talking with might and main about the upcoming operation to “relatively honestly take” power from the “criminal regime”. Its pretentious title - “Freedom” with its head betrays authorship, directly pointing to the “screenwriters” from the State Department. Guaido can continue to swagger, claiming that "Maduro’s power is weakening every day." In fact, everything seems to be happening exactly the opposite. If someone is tired of ordinary people, then most likely the one who all this time “stirs up the water” in the country, subjecting it to new and new tests.
Guaido missed the time for a quick seizure of state control over himself, most likely, completely and irrevocably. Hopes that Maduro will “fall apart all by himself”, his supporters will abandon him, and the people will enthusiastically begin to play the “revolution” according to the American scenario did not materialize. Now, it seems, it is impossible to do without external intervention, but it is unlikely that it will follow - including after completely unambiguous statements from Russia that our country will "do everything" so that there is no foreign invasion of Venezuela. With every failed attack on a legitimately elected president, he becomes stronger, and the opposition “loses face” and shows its inability to change anything.
So, Russia now just has to openly support the legitimate authority, ridding very hot heads both in Venezuela and beyond, from the temptations to “go all-in” and still solve the matter in one fell swoop - it’s possible that operation to neutralize Maduro. In the end, no one is trying to deny that Russia's investments in Venezuelan the economy billions of dollars. And in what numbers to evaluate the possible prospects for cooperation between our countries? What is it all to give to the Americans (in case of the victory of Guaido)? Or to the Chinese comrades? And it will be so if Maduro right now, in the days that are decisive for him, will not feel the maximum support of Moscow. The fact that Russia is finally learning to defend its interests and defend its allies and friends without looking back at anyone is right in itself. Great power status is expensive - but worth it.
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