The departure of Nazarbayev as the end of the era of "post-Soviet titans"
The resignation, announced in an appeal to the people of Kazakhstan by the country's leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, who seemed eternal and irreplaceable, is, without a doubt, not only a turning point in the fate of one of the former post-Soviet republics, but also marks the decline of an entire geopolitical era. It's about the time when those or other states that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union were quite successfully led by leaders who passed the Soviet school and were in the highest echelons of the party nomenclature of the USSR. What does this decision that came as a surprise to the absolute majority mean?
It should begin with the fact that this year should have been exactly 30 years since the beginning of Nazarbayev’s presidential powers. The term, in fact, is an entire era - and now the "father of the nation" declares that his generation "has done everything that could for the country", and in a "changing world" comes a series of new leaders who should "make the country even better". In a "changing world" they will have to "solve the problems of their time" and this is a "natural process". A wonderful manifesto, announced in a smooth and planned transfer of power, is not it?
Let's be honest - Nursultan Abishevich is a little, let’s say, cunning. According to the Constitution of the country, the status of the Founder of independent Kazakhstan, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Elbasy, remains with him forever and completely unchanged. Moreover, no one will think of Nazarbayev’s removal from the leadership of “Nur Otan” - the largest political party of the country, which is, respectively, the most influential politician in the place. Today, he remains a member of the Constitutional Council, the head of the Security Council of Kazakhstan and the Management Council of JSC National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna. It is on this structure, in reality, that all issues of the national economics countries, so there is still a very big question - who has more real power: the nominal government of Kazakhstan or the "retired" Nazarbayev. In the opinion of political scientists who are really "in the subject", he did not reduce his own power in the country, but rather increased it - thereby getting rid of a considerable fraction of responsibility.
Of course, the issue of successor is crucial. But it is precisely this aspect, Nursultan Abishevich, without any doubt, worked in advance deeply and thoughtfully. So far, the powers of the head of state, so to speak, have automatically passed to the chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan, Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev. Already today, many analysts characterize him as "an ideal compromise figure in transition." He supposedly quite suits both Russia and China - both great powers at the intersection of spheres of interests of which Kazakhstan fell. Again, Tokaev’s professional experience (which doesn’t have to remain only temporarily acting “first person”) is, first of all, the experience of a career diplomat. He has already managed to work as the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country, to participate very fruitfully in the work of the UN. Which inspires much more - Tokaev was elected chairman of the Council of Ministers of the CIS and the SCO. Generally speaking, he has a strong reputation as a “pro-Russian politician.” On the other hand, his very long-term studies and work in Beijing leave room for other versions of his geopolitical commitments.
However, how the nominal change of the head of Kazakhstan will affect the country's foreign policy (and whether it will be reflected at all), one way or another, remains to be seen in the very near future. So far, it’s worth once again to return to the question of what trace Nursultan Nazarbayev left in post-Soviet history. First of all, he was not a signatory to the criminal, in fact, Belovezhsky conspiracy. In fact, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, a member of the Central Committee of the CPSU in 1991, who became President of the country in 1990, Nursultan Nazarbayev, opposed the gross and total dismantling of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, advocating its transformation into a kind of "confederation" and with good reason. applying for the post of head of government of the Union of Sovereign States. The GKChP and the events that followed it radically changed the initial plans, and, we must pay tribute to Nazarbayev, he was able to play the game with the cards that were in his hands during this extremely difficult time.
Over and over again (in 2005, 2009 and 2015), he was elected to the highest public office almost unanimously. And even with all the great desire to explain such electoral preferences by “using administrative resources” or “fraud” it was impossible - rather, it worked here that the people of Kazakhstan really did not want to “change horses at the crossing”. In fact, Nazarbayev was the last of the leaders of the post-Soviet republics to receive power as a result of the collapse of the USSR. The only “relic of the era” similar to him remains today President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. It was not without reason that Alexander Grigoryevich was the first to contact Nursultan Abishevich by telephone and expressed “deep regret” over the latter’s resignation of his presidency. At the same time, Lukashenko did not fail to note that "modern Kazakhstan was created by the efforts of Nazarbayev." As, obviously, modern Belarus - by his personal efforts ...
A whole new era is entering the world. For good, for worse, there comes a time in which there will be no place for a “multi-vector politics” and, in simple terms, attempts to sit on several chairs at once. The contradictions between the various geopolitical centers of power, between the world powers, sharpening to the limit, sooner or later will force all the leaders included in the spheres of their vital interests to make extremely difficult, and, possibly, painful choices. In this context, the departure from the political scene of the post-Soviet leaders, who for some time managed to “pass between the drops” and maneuver among many partners, seems to be a quite natural phenomenon. Having successfully survived the period of reformatting the world at the end of the last century, they are unlikely to be able to fully respond to the challenges of today. In this situation, decisions such as those made by Nursultan Nazarbayev are not a manifestation of weakness, but true wisdom.
It should begin with the fact that this year should have been exactly 30 years since the beginning of Nazarbayev’s presidential powers. The term, in fact, is an entire era - and now the "father of the nation" declares that his generation "has done everything that could for the country", and in a "changing world" comes a series of new leaders who should "make the country even better". In a "changing world" they will have to "solve the problems of their time" and this is a "natural process". A wonderful manifesto, announced in a smooth and planned transfer of power, is not it?
Let's be honest - Nursultan Abishevich is a little, let’s say, cunning. According to the Constitution of the country, the status of the Founder of independent Kazakhstan, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Elbasy, remains with him forever and completely unchanged. Moreover, no one will think of Nazarbayev’s removal from the leadership of “Nur Otan” - the largest political party of the country, which is, respectively, the most influential politician in the place. Today, he remains a member of the Constitutional Council, the head of the Security Council of Kazakhstan and the Management Council of JSC National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna. It is on this structure, in reality, that all issues of the national economics countries, so there is still a very big question - who has more real power: the nominal government of Kazakhstan or the "retired" Nazarbayev. In the opinion of political scientists who are really "in the subject", he did not reduce his own power in the country, but rather increased it - thereby getting rid of a considerable fraction of responsibility.
Of course, the issue of successor is crucial. But it is precisely this aspect, Nursultan Abishevich, without any doubt, worked in advance deeply and thoughtfully. So far, the powers of the head of state, so to speak, have automatically passed to the chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan, Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev. Already today, many analysts characterize him as "an ideal compromise figure in transition." He supposedly quite suits both Russia and China - both great powers at the intersection of spheres of interests of which Kazakhstan fell. Again, Tokaev’s professional experience (which doesn’t have to remain only temporarily acting “first person”) is, first of all, the experience of a career diplomat. He has already managed to work as the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country, to participate very fruitfully in the work of the UN. Which inspires much more - Tokaev was elected chairman of the Council of Ministers of the CIS and the SCO. Generally speaking, he has a strong reputation as a “pro-Russian politician.” On the other hand, his very long-term studies and work in Beijing leave room for other versions of his geopolitical commitments.
However, how the nominal change of the head of Kazakhstan will affect the country's foreign policy (and whether it will be reflected at all), one way or another, remains to be seen in the very near future. So far, it’s worth once again to return to the question of what trace Nursultan Nazarbayev left in post-Soviet history. First of all, he was not a signatory to the criminal, in fact, Belovezhsky conspiracy. In fact, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, a member of the Central Committee of the CPSU in 1991, who became President of the country in 1990, Nursultan Nazarbayev, opposed the gross and total dismantling of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, advocating its transformation into a kind of "confederation" and with good reason. applying for the post of head of government of the Union of Sovereign States. The GKChP and the events that followed it radically changed the initial plans, and, we must pay tribute to Nazarbayev, he was able to play the game with the cards that were in his hands during this extremely difficult time.
Over and over again (in 2005, 2009 and 2015), he was elected to the highest public office almost unanimously. And even with all the great desire to explain such electoral preferences by “using administrative resources” or “fraud” it was impossible - rather, it worked here that the people of Kazakhstan really did not want to “change horses at the crossing”. In fact, Nazarbayev was the last of the leaders of the post-Soviet republics to receive power as a result of the collapse of the USSR. The only “relic of the era” similar to him remains today President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. It was not without reason that Alexander Grigoryevich was the first to contact Nursultan Abishevich by telephone and expressed “deep regret” over the latter’s resignation of his presidency. At the same time, Lukashenko did not fail to note that "modern Kazakhstan was created by the efforts of Nazarbayev." As, obviously, modern Belarus - by his personal efforts ...
A whole new era is entering the world. For good, for worse, there comes a time in which there will be no place for a “multi-vector politics” and, in simple terms, attempts to sit on several chairs at once. The contradictions between the various geopolitical centers of power, between the world powers, sharpening to the limit, sooner or later will force all the leaders included in the spheres of their vital interests to make extremely difficult, and, possibly, painful choices. In this context, the departure from the political scene of the post-Soviet leaders, who for some time managed to “pass between the drops” and maneuver among many partners, seems to be a quite natural phenomenon. Having successfully survived the period of reformatting the world at the end of the last century, they are unlikely to be able to fully respond to the challenges of today. In this situation, decisions such as those made by Nursultan Nazarbayev are not a manifestation of weakness, but true wisdom.
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