Japan challenges Russia to "shadow boxing"
The previously discussed cessation of joint US-South Korean military exercises was a fait accompli.
External propriety respected. As follows from the Pentagon newsletter:
However, at the same time the command of the American contingent in South Korea and the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean Armed Forces reported that the team exercises under the name Dong Maeng will replace the bilateral exercises of Key Resolve and Foal Eagle.
Although the US military insists that the refusal of bilateral exercises will not affect the ability of the combined forces of the United States and South Korea to solve any security tasks, it is obvious that the difference between the exercises involving thousands of military personnel and hundreds of combat units equipment, and team-head games on the map and computer displays are about the same as between a real juicy hamburger and its image on an advertising poster.
However, the US decision is logical and rather strengthens its position in Northeast Asia, rather than weakens.
Now South Korea and Japan will have to perceive American security guarantees not as a free umbrella, but as a prize that still needs to be earned. Although both countries are not formally refused security guarantees from the United States, it is clear that a decrease in Pentagon military activity in the region also means a decrease in interest in strategic partnership with Seoul and Tokyo.
At the same time, Donald Trump made a very big bet on dialogue with the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un. Despite the fact that during the second US-North Korean summit, the parties did not agree on anything, and Trump left the negotiations, he did so in order to leave the door open, and also stated that the dialogue would continue.
The most unexpected consequence of the “warming” between Washington and Pyongyang is the prospects of the very “denuclearization” for which this dialogue was launched.
If the easing of tension between the DPRK, South Korea and the US makes the prospect of a unification of the two Korean states more realistic in the future, the question arises: How much are Seoul and the South Korean military interested in acquiring a nuclear-free status by the North Korean side?
The events of recent decades, and even recent armed incidents between India and Pakistan, have shown that the country's presence of nuclear weapons is a serious guarantee of its sovereignty and international security. And if the Koreans believe that a united Korea is very good, then a united Korea with the technological and financial power of the Republic of Korea and the DPRK’s nuclear potential is probably much better.
China, such a situation is generally beneficial. Any step of South Korea away from the US alliance, or North Korea from the acute conflict and US sanctions means the movement of Korean states into the orbit of Chinese influence, in which they, in fact, were before the political and technological revolution of the Meiji era.
For Japan, a united, and even more so nuclear, Korea will become an extremely unpleasant neighbor. Recall that in the territorial dispute with Japan over the islands of Dokdo, Seoul and Pyongyang have long been a united front.
In order to maintain American military support, Japan will need to be more proactive on the US side in all international issues, as well as have the opportunity to demonstrate to its overseas partner that the national security of the country of Yamato is under serious threat.
At the same time, it is not easy to go to aggravate relations with the PRC or the Korean states of Japan, because in this case, the threat to Japanese security will be truly dangerous. China and Japan have long been in different weight categories, and the leaders and military of the DPRK will definitely impress people who will use the country's nuclear arsenal, if necessary.
Therefore, Russia remains the ideal "partner" in the Japanese "shadow boxing". The escalation of tension between Tokyo and Moscow is completely unnecessary for the Russians, however, it can easily be provoked by the Japanese, in the image and likeness of disputes over the Spratly and Dokdo islands, where the troops of their naval forces have been sending them from time to time.
It should be noted that Russian military experts have long been calling for accelerated strengthening of Russia's defense capabilities in the Far East, in the area of responsibility of the Eastern Military District. Probably the time has come for such decisions.
External propriety respected. As follows from the Pentagon newsletter:
Ministers [acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan and Korean Minister of Defense Jung Gen Doo] reviewed and approved the decision recommended by the South Korean Commander-in-Chief and the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean Armed Forces ... Both sides decided to complete the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercise series .
However, at the same time the command of the American contingent in South Korea and the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean Armed Forces reported that the team exercises under the name Dong Maeng will replace the bilateral exercises of Key Resolve and Foal Eagle.
Although the US military insists that the refusal of bilateral exercises will not affect the ability of the combined forces of the United States and South Korea to solve any security tasks, it is obvious that the difference between the exercises involving thousands of military personnel and hundreds of combat units equipment, and team-head games on the map and computer displays are about the same as between a real juicy hamburger and its image on an advertising poster.
However, the US decision is logical and rather strengthens its position in Northeast Asia, rather than weakens.
Now South Korea and Japan will have to perceive American security guarantees not as a free umbrella, but as a prize that still needs to be earned. Although both countries are not formally refused security guarantees from the United States, it is clear that a decrease in Pentagon military activity in the region also means a decrease in interest in strategic partnership with Seoul and Tokyo.
At the same time, Donald Trump made a very big bet on dialogue with the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un. Despite the fact that during the second US-North Korean summit, the parties did not agree on anything, and Trump left the negotiations, he did so in order to leave the door open, and also stated that the dialogue would continue.
The most unexpected consequence of the “warming” between Washington and Pyongyang is the prospects of the very “denuclearization” for which this dialogue was launched.
If the easing of tension between the DPRK, South Korea and the US makes the prospect of a unification of the two Korean states more realistic in the future, the question arises: How much are Seoul and the South Korean military interested in acquiring a nuclear-free status by the North Korean side?
The events of recent decades, and even recent armed incidents between India and Pakistan, have shown that the country's presence of nuclear weapons is a serious guarantee of its sovereignty and international security. And if the Koreans believe that a united Korea is very good, then a united Korea with the technological and financial power of the Republic of Korea and the DPRK’s nuclear potential is probably much better.
China, such a situation is generally beneficial. Any step of South Korea away from the US alliance, or North Korea from the acute conflict and US sanctions means the movement of Korean states into the orbit of Chinese influence, in which they, in fact, were before the political and technological revolution of the Meiji era.
For Japan, a united, and even more so nuclear, Korea will become an extremely unpleasant neighbor. Recall that in the territorial dispute with Japan over the islands of Dokdo, Seoul and Pyongyang have long been a united front.
In order to maintain American military support, Japan will need to be more proactive on the US side in all international issues, as well as have the opportunity to demonstrate to its overseas partner that the national security of the country of Yamato is under serious threat.
At the same time, it is not easy to go to aggravate relations with the PRC or the Korean states of Japan, because in this case, the threat to Japanese security will be truly dangerous. China and Japan have long been in different weight categories, and the leaders and military of the DPRK will definitely impress people who will use the country's nuclear arsenal, if necessary.
Therefore, Russia remains the ideal "partner" in the Japanese "shadow boxing". The escalation of tension between Tokyo and Moscow is completely unnecessary for the Russians, however, it can easily be provoked by the Japanese, in the image and likeness of disputes over the Spratly and Dokdo islands, where the troops of their naval forces have been sending them from time to time.
It should be noted that Russian military experts have long been calling for accelerated strengthening of Russia's defense capabilities in the Far East, in the area of responsibility of the Eastern Military District. Probably the time has come for such decisions.
Information