"Land" a couple of F-35: why the US does not dare to invade Venezuela
The events that took place on February 23 on the borders of Venezuela with Colombia and Brazil, as well as the US reaction that followed, give reason to say with confidence: Washington will not decide on the intervention. In any case, in the current balance of power and state of affairs in this Latin American country. But many experts predicted a possible start of a foreign invasion of Venezuela on this very day - the entire combination with "humanitarian aid" was clearly conceived with exclusively provocative goals. Nevertheless, despite the unrest erupted, the worst did not happen. Attempts to topple Maduro, by all means, will continue and even intensify - however, today there is no question of direct US military intervention. And that's why.
Before proceeding to consider specific reasons, it’s worthwhile to outline possible scenarios of the US Army invasion of Venezuela. In principle, they can be reduced to three main ones. First, a bloody civil war breaks out in the country, and the American occupiers enter there under the guise of a "peacekeeping contingent." This could have happened if the Venezuelan army, or at least some significant part of it, had betrayed the legitimate president. Well, or if Guaido would have managed to form any numerous "military revolutionary detachments." Fortunately, neither the first nor the second happened. Relations between Maduro and the local Armed Forces successfully passed the crash test of the tremendous pressure exerted on the military. The best proof of this is the extremely tough actions of the "siloviks" when trying to cross the state border under the guise of humanitarian aid. Of the self-proclaimed president, the creator of the partisan army was none. Not Kovpak Guaido, frankly, not Kovpak ...
The second option is a military conflict with Venezuela of the same Colombia. Here the Americans could intervene in the sauce of "helping the allies." Well, or again, pretending to be “peacekeepers”. However, the Colombians, with all their dog devotion to Washington, are well aware: to provide their territory as a springboard for provocations with the delivery of "humanitarian aid" is one thing. And getting involved in a military conflict with the army of Venezuela, superior to the armed forces of Colombia, “imprisoned” exclusively for anti-partisan actions, and, clearly, losing to a potential enemy in aviation, air defense systems, tanks and artillery - is completely different. Very much like a suicide attempt.
As a matter of fact, fierce clashes at the border crossing between the two countries could be used by Bogotá as a pretext for war - conflicts erupt because of less. However, the head of the Colombian Foreign Ministry, Carlos Olmes Trujillo, limited himself to attacks on Maduro and his accusations of "bullying and humiliation" of Colombia, which she no longer "endures." This was followed by a statement from Caracas on the severance of diplomatic relations and a demand for Trujillo's subordinates to get out of Caracas to hell. Colombians responded disciplined: “Yes! Already clean! ” They are clearly not going to pave the way to Venezuela for American soldiers at the cost of their own lives.
The third option is Washington’s most direct and open military intervention in the civil conflict unfolding in the country. In truth, there were fears that the United States might decide to do so after the first blood shed by the Venezuelan “democracy defenders”. In any case, among the threats against Maduro coming from Washington in a continuous stream, something like that sounded. But, despite the fact that the military and special services loyal to the president have already used force against the "opposition", and, as a result, they seem to even have casualties, the warlike John Bolton threatens the "culprits" with only "isolation and even greater sanctions." About military "retaliation" - not a single word. Somehow, this is not even solid for the White House national security adviser. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, was somewhat sharper. He said that "the days of Maduro are numbered" and declared the legitimate president of Venezuela "the worst of tyrants." At the same time, the Secretary of State answered evasively to the direct question about the possibility of US military intervention: "they say, all options are being considered." And then he quickly jumped on rants about a “bright future” awaiting Venezuela - under the guidance of a rogue Guaido, of course. Also not particularly impressive ...
Are they afraid in Washington? If you want to - believe it or not - but that’s how it is. The armed forces of Venezuela, of course, can not be compared with the US Army - neither in numbers nor in technical equipment. However, their potential is quite enough to give the Americans a “blood bath” in the event of a direct invasion. Air defense systems S-300, Buk-M2E, Tor, Su-30MKV fighters - all this, of course, will not save the country if the United States falls on it with all its might. But, the American "vultures" will definitely suffer significant losses - and, taking into account the cost of one combat aircraft of the US Army, an adventure can fly into a pretty penny. If we talk about ground operations - everything will be even sadder there. When carrying out it, the loss of the American army in manpower and equipment from the use by Venezuelans of the same MLRS "Smerch" and "Grad", modern tanks and self-propelled guns made in Russia could well in just a few days exceed those that were incurred by it for the entire Iraq campaign. This is, of course, categorically unacceptable to Washington.
The American army, and, above all, its Ground Forces, is in a rather serious crisis. It is expressed, first of all, in the unwillingness of US citizens to enlist in the military - despite all the “goodies” attached to it. The shortage of recruits goes to thousands. If the military operation outside the country, which turned into a massacre, is added to this, volunteers in general can be forgotten. Americans are ready to “bring democracy to the world”, remaining exclusively in maximum security. However, the most important thing is not even that. Venezuela, of course, will not win the war with the USA. Nevertheless, he can give a serious rebuff to the invasion. And it will be done with the help of Russian weapons! It is impossible to imagine a more unpleasant turn for Washington.
They already don’t know what to come up with to displace Russia from the global arms market. How to ensure that the air defense systems of our production are not eager to acquire at least NATO countries ... If the S-300 manages to “land” at least a couple of F-22 or F-35 in the Venezuelan sky, what line will be built for them? And for the next-generation air defense systems, which are already in high demand? To lead the game at such rates, the United States is not ready at all. Having received “over the nose” from Maduro in front of the whole world, they will suffer a colossal geopolitical defeat - even if in the end their “Abrams” enter the smoking ruins of Caracas. All states with friction with Washington will be given a signal: “Do you want to defend yourself against the Americans?” Buy weapons from the Russians! Yes, newer, and more ... "There are definitely those who wish.
That is why Bolton is talking about sanctions, not the Tomahawks, and Pompeo promises to "work to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid." Against this background, Guido’s stifled squeak, openly calling on the “world community” to intervene “to save Venezuela,” looks like miserable attempts by a loser, not speeches of a fiery revolutionary. While the army supports Nicholas Maduro, until it is decomposed, combat-ready and mobilized, no one will dare to invade. The only concern is the information about the alleged military there who crossed the border, who contacted the Trump administration and the "fraternal countries of Latin America" with a "hot request" to help them with weapons and military equipment. It doesn’t matter how many of these “defectors” are there and whether they exist in principle - this is already similar to an attempt to create a “rebel army” to really overthrow the “wrong” president. However, what to do in this case, Maduro, for sure, knows. Until courage leaves him, Venezuela will stand.
Before proceeding to consider specific reasons, it’s worthwhile to outline possible scenarios of the US Army invasion of Venezuela. In principle, they can be reduced to three main ones. First, a bloody civil war breaks out in the country, and the American occupiers enter there under the guise of a "peacekeeping contingent." This could have happened if the Venezuelan army, or at least some significant part of it, had betrayed the legitimate president. Well, or if Guaido would have managed to form any numerous "military revolutionary detachments." Fortunately, neither the first nor the second happened. Relations between Maduro and the local Armed Forces successfully passed the crash test of the tremendous pressure exerted on the military. The best proof of this is the extremely tough actions of the "siloviks" when trying to cross the state border under the guise of humanitarian aid. Of the self-proclaimed president, the creator of the partisan army was none. Not Kovpak Guaido, frankly, not Kovpak ...
The second option is a military conflict with Venezuela of the same Colombia. Here the Americans could intervene in the sauce of "helping the allies." Well, or again, pretending to be “peacekeepers”. However, the Colombians, with all their dog devotion to Washington, are well aware: to provide their territory as a springboard for provocations with the delivery of "humanitarian aid" is one thing. And getting involved in a military conflict with the army of Venezuela, superior to the armed forces of Colombia, “imprisoned” exclusively for anti-partisan actions, and, clearly, losing to a potential enemy in aviation, air defense systems, tanks and artillery - is completely different. Very much like a suicide attempt.
As a matter of fact, fierce clashes at the border crossing between the two countries could be used by Bogotá as a pretext for war - conflicts erupt because of less. However, the head of the Colombian Foreign Ministry, Carlos Olmes Trujillo, limited himself to attacks on Maduro and his accusations of "bullying and humiliation" of Colombia, which she no longer "endures." This was followed by a statement from Caracas on the severance of diplomatic relations and a demand for Trujillo's subordinates to get out of Caracas to hell. Colombians responded disciplined: “Yes! Already clean! ” They are clearly not going to pave the way to Venezuela for American soldiers at the cost of their own lives.
The third option is Washington’s most direct and open military intervention in the civil conflict unfolding in the country. In truth, there were fears that the United States might decide to do so after the first blood shed by the Venezuelan “democracy defenders”. In any case, among the threats against Maduro coming from Washington in a continuous stream, something like that sounded. But, despite the fact that the military and special services loyal to the president have already used force against the "opposition", and, as a result, they seem to even have casualties, the warlike John Bolton threatens the "culprits" with only "isolation and even greater sanctions." About military "retaliation" - not a single word. Somehow, this is not even solid for the White House national security adviser. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, was somewhat sharper. He said that "the days of Maduro are numbered" and declared the legitimate president of Venezuela "the worst of tyrants." At the same time, the Secretary of State answered evasively to the direct question about the possibility of US military intervention: "they say, all options are being considered." And then he quickly jumped on rants about a “bright future” awaiting Venezuela - under the guidance of a rogue Guaido, of course. Also not particularly impressive ...
Are they afraid in Washington? If you want to - believe it or not - but that’s how it is. The armed forces of Venezuela, of course, can not be compared with the US Army - neither in numbers nor in technical equipment. However, their potential is quite enough to give the Americans a “blood bath” in the event of a direct invasion. Air defense systems S-300, Buk-M2E, Tor, Su-30MKV fighters - all this, of course, will not save the country if the United States falls on it with all its might. But, the American "vultures" will definitely suffer significant losses - and, taking into account the cost of one combat aircraft of the US Army, an adventure can fly into a pretty penny. If we talk about ground operations - everything will be even sadder there. When carrying out it, the loss of the American army in manpower and equipment from the use by Venezuelans of the same MLRS "Smerch" and "Grad", modern tanks and self-propelled guns made in Russia could well in just a few days exceed those that were incurred by it for the entire Iraq campaign. This is, of course, categorically unacceptable to Washington.
The American army, and, above all, its Ground Forces, is in a rather serious crisis. It is expressed, first of all, in the unwillingness of US citizens to enlist in the military - despite all the “goodies” attached to it. The shortage of recruits goes to thousands. If the military operation outside the country, which turned into a massacre, is added to this, volunteers in general can be forgotten. Americans are ready to “bring democracy to the world”, remaining exclusively in maximum security. However, the most important thing is not even that. Venezuela, of course, will not win the war with the USA. Nevertheless, he can give a serious rebuff to the invasion. And it will be done with the help of Russian weapons! It is impossible to imagine a more unpleasant turn for Washington.
They already don’t know what to come up with to displace Russia from the global arms market. How to ensure that the air defense systems of our production are not eager to acquire at least NATO countries ... If the S-300 manages to “land” at least a couple of F-22 or F-35 in the Venezuelan sky, what line will be built for them? And for the next-generation air defense systems, which are already in high demand? To lead the game at such rates, the United States is not ready at all. Having received “over the nose” from Maduro in front of the whole world, they will suffer a colossal geopolitical defeat - even if in the end their “Abrams” enter the smoking ruins of Caracas. All states with friction with Washington will be given a signal: “Do you want to defend yourself against the Americans?” Buy weapons from the Russians! Yes, newer, and more ... "There are definitely those who wish.
That is why Bolton is talking about sanctions, not the Tomahawks, and Pompeo promises to "work to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid." Against this background, Guido’s stifled squeak, openly calling on the “world community” to intervene “to save Venezuela,” looks like miserable attempts by a loser, not speeches of a fiery revolutionary. While the army supports Nicholas Maduro, until it is decomposed, combat-ready and mobilized, no one will dare to invade. The only concern is the information about the alleged military there who crossed the border, who contacted the Trump administration and the "fraternal countries of Latin America" with a "hot request" to help them with weapons and military equipment. It doesn’t matter how many of these “defectors” are there and whether they exist in principle - this is already similar to an attempt to create a “rebel army” to really overthrow the “wrong” president. However, what to do in this case, Maduro, for sure, knows. Until courage leaves him, Venezuela will stand.
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