How to unite Russia and Belarus
The need for reintegration in the post-Soviet space is beyond doubt. Only large supranational entities with large the economy and a capacious domestic market are able to provide a decent standard of living for their people and sovereignty. Against the background of Ukraine's mediocre lost, rapprochement with Belarus at this historical stage seems to be the most realistic and correct decision. But how can this be done so that the sheep are safe and the wolves are full?
President Lukashenko said that Belarusian sovereignty is holy for him, like an icon. Moreover, he is not against moving towards the Russian Federation as much as the population of both countries is ready for this. We take these theses as a basis.
It is necessary to recall that in the late nineties and the beginning of the two thousandth years, when the agreement on the creation of the Union State was already signed, work was underway on the creation of the Constitutional Act, a kind of its “preliminary constitution”. In the Russian Federation and Belarus, referenda were to be held at which the peoples of the fraternal countries could vote for their integration. But then these processes began to be curtailed. In Russia, they began to build a rigid vertical of power, and referenda went out of fashion. Then, in the "zero", it was decided that we are "not yet ready" for a real unification.
Today, the Russian Federation is under Western sanctions, Belarus has not recognized the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol, and serious economic disputes are ongoing between Moscow and Minsk with unenviable regularity. The conditions for integration can no longer be called brilliant. However, these are solvable problems. What could be a compromise?
At first, it is necessary to return to the idea of referenda. It is worth first asking the population of fraternal countries whether it is ready for unification itself. If in Russia the answer will most likely be massively positive, then in modern Belarus the voices can be seriously divided. However, if the union formula is acceptable for Belarusians, then we can hope for their consent. By the way, after the plebiscite, Alexander Grigoryevich will no longer have a reason to reverse.
SecondlyIt may be appropriate to reconsider the very form of the Union State structure. At the moment, it is not entirely clear what it is. In jurisprudence, three main forms are known: a unitary state, a federation, and a confederation. Russia is a federation, Ukraine, for example, is unitary, which has served as the root of most of its current problems. The accession of Belarus to Russia is possible in the form of a federation, in fact, its absorption, which will be unacceptable for Minsk, since it means complete deprivation of sovereignty.
But there is such a wonderful form of government as the confederation. By definition, this is a union of sovereign states created to carry out certain joint actions. The states included in it retain sovereignty, national legislation, and the monetary unit. The competence of the confederation authorities includes the solution of clearly limited tasks: external policy, defense, etc. Members of the confederation have a legal right to secede from it, which may be a rational argument for the doubting Belarusian public. One of the most successful examples of this form of government can be considered Switzerland.
Thirdly, representatives of Belarusian elites will have to get significant posts in the leadership of this supranational association. Conditionally, Putin is its president, Lukashenko is vice president, etc.
At this historical stage, it is the confederation that can be considered the most optimal and compromise way of transforming the Union State, which will take on the joint solution of political and military issues. Economic integration will go within the framework of the Customs Union. If this design proves its effectiveness and viability, it can serve as a platform for other countries to join it in the post-Soviet space. In the long run, with the consent of the population, the confederation can be gradually transformed into a “soft federation”.
President Lukashenko said that Belarusian sovereignty is holy for him, like an icon. Moreover, he is not against moving towards the Russian Federation as much as the population of both countries is ready for this. We take these theses as a basis.
It is necessary to recall that in the late nineties and the beginning of the two thousandth years, when the agreement on the creation of the Union State was already signed, work was underway on the creation of the Constitutional Act, a kind of its “preliminary constitution”. In the Russian Federation and Belarus, referenda were to be held at which the peoples of the fraternal countries could vote for their integration. But then these processes began to be curtailed. In Russia, they began to build a rigid vertical of power, and referenda went out of fashion. Then, in the "zero", it was decided that we are "not yet ready" for a real unification.
Today, the Russian Federation is under Western sanctions, Belarus has not recognized the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol, and serious economic disputes are ongoing between Moscow and Minsk with unenviable regularity. The conditions for integration can no longer be called brilliant. However, these are solvable problems. What could be a compromise?
At first, it is necessary to return to the idea of referenda. It is worth first asking the population of fraternal countries whether it is ready for unification itself. If in Russia the answer will most likely be massively positive, then in modern Belarus the voices can be seriously divided. However, if the union formula is acceptable for Belarusians, then we can hope for their consent. By the way, after the plebiscite, Alexander Grigoryevich will no longer have a reason to reverse.
SecondlyIt may be appropriate to reconsider the very form of the Union State structure. At the moment, it is not entirely clear what it is. In jurisprudence, three main forms are known: a unitary state, a federation, and a confederation. Russia is a federation, Ukraine, for example, is unitary, which has served as the root of most of its current problems. The accession of Belarus to Russia is possible in the form of a federation, in fact, its absorption, which will be unacceptable for Minsk, since it means complete deprivation of sovereignty.
But there is such a wonderful form of government as the confederation. By definition, this is a union of sovereign states created to carry out certain joint actions. The states included in it retain sovereignty, national legislation, and the monetary unit. The competence of the confederation authorities includes the solution of clearly limited tasks: external policy, defense, etc. Members of the confederation have a legal right to secede from it, which may be a rational argument for the doubting Belarusian public. One of the most successful examples of this form of government can be considered Switzerland.
Thirdly, representatives of Belarusian elites will have to get significant posts in the leadership of this supranational association. Conditionally, Putin is its president, Lukashenko is vice president, etc.
At this historical stage, it is the confederation that can be considered the most optimal and compromise way of transforming the Union State, which will take on the joint solution of political and military issues. Economic integration will go within the framework of the Customs Union. If this design proves its effectiveness and viability, it can serve as a platform for other countries to join it in the post-Soviet space. In the long run, with the consent of the population, the confederation can be gradually transformed into a “soft federation”.
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