Why the Minsk Agreements have become a trap for Russia
The meeting of the UN Security Council, held at the request of Russia on February 12, dedicated to the implementation of the Minsk Agreements concluded four years ago, resulted in a completely predictable action - another attempt to make our country a “public flogging”. It is clear that the initiative shown was, as it were, a necessary part of a certain diplomatic “game” that Moscow is trying to play today, trying to get away from ridiculous accusations of “aggression against Ukraine”. However, what this attempt turned out to be in fact should finally show the absolute hopelessness and even the harmfulness of such policy. In the current realities, the Minsk Agreements have finally turned into a trap for our country, from which it is necessary to get out, the sooner the better.
Opinions on whether Russia should have contributed at all to the conclusion of these same agreements are still different. Ukraine, before which, after the infamous Ilovaisky and Debaltsevsky boilers, the prospect of a military, and, as a result, political disaster, Minsk, both the first and the second, quite needed air. What about us? It is clear that at these moments the West pressed the Kremlin so that even sparks rained down ... But was there also internal motivation? The only reasonable version seems to be the fears arising among the country's leadership that, having turned into a rat driven into a corner, Kiev could go on a completely unpredictable escalation - for example, bombing or rocket attacks on Donetsk and Lugansk. They wanted to avoid mass casualties among the civilian population, to reduce the intensity of the conflict, which reached a dangerous level.
Talk about the idea of “reintegrating” Donbass into Ukraine as a kind of “Trojan horse”, or, if you like, an antibody capable of defeating the viruses of Nazism and Russophobia that hit this country, thus returning it “on the true path”, I even I don’t want to take it seriously. Otherwise, one has to admit that extremely responsible positions in the Kremlin are occupied by people who are fond of not just the unscientific fiction of the worst mischief, but fairy tales for the smallest absurdity ... But even if we assume that some ideas of this kind hovered in to our leaders, today they certainly look like complete madness. Republic of Donbass and what Ukraine has evolved over the past since the signing of the agreements are incompatible in principle. The calls for the LPR and the DPR to join the “non-fallow” in any status look approximately the same as the proposal of Leningrad to join the Third Reich on the rights of a “free city” would sound in 1941. The results, in any case, would be approximately the same - in the case of the consent of the invited ...
If we talk about the "letter of the law" and legal subtleties, then official Kiev completely and finally denounced every single piece of paper signed in Minsk, adopting the so-called "law on the de-occupation of Donbass" on February 24 last year. Such a one completely crosses out, at least, the most important points of these agreements - those that refer to the approval of the special status of Donbass, recognition by Kiev of its right to autonomy. After Ukraine proclaims "de-occupation", one can also forget forever the talk of the Republican amnesty and the holding of elections in the "rebellious" territories. They will not be in any of the scenarios, except for the pleasing Kiev - at gunpoint of punitive rifles, and after the total “sweeping” of Donbass carried out by them. What kind of negotiations and amnesties can there be if the territories of the DPR and LPR are recognized as “occupied”, and their current power is declared by the “occupation administration” ?!
The fact that the “deoccupation” rhetoric is not, alas, idle talk, the current government has been “uncool” proving extremely convincingly - by killing Alexander Zakharchenko, one, incidentally, of the signatories of the same Minsk. What can you negotiate with her after that ?! It is with great regret that I have to admit - Ukraine used the time allotted to it by the Minsk Agreements very effectively. First of all, to build up our own military potential and strengthen the nationalist dictatorship within the country. This process was accompanied and is accompanied by an intensified “brainwashing” of the “non-seed” population, by driving hatred into their heads of both the Republics of Donbass and Russia. However, only by this, the successes achieved by Kiev under the cover of a smoke screen of the protocols signed four years ago, alas, are not exhausted.
Minsk, whatever the motives for the participation of Russian diplomats and leaders in 2014-2015, has become a huge foreign policy trap for it. Having entered into this process as a guarantor, our country stubbornly reckons the West as the direct subjects of such, and is declared to be the party that, in fact, disrupts the implementation of the agreements! Until recently, it was still possible to talk about two slightly different approaches to this issue - relatively speaking, “European” (more or less realistic and loyal to us), and “American” (completely one-sided, irreconcilable to Russia and making her the culprit of all troubles). However, yesterday’s demarche at the UN by Herr Christoph Heusgen, who is Germany’s Permanent Representative to this organization, makes us think that in Europe, too, by washing, by skating, it achieved its goal. The German diplomat’s eloquence fountain about the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” and the “occupation” of not only Crimea, but also Donbass, Vasily Nebendze managed to shut up only with a rather sharp answer. We must pay tribute - it worked brilliantly, but ...
Moscow is time to realize - any attempts to “distance oneself” from the events in the Donbass with the help of Minsk are doomed to complete failure. And how long will we distance ourselves ?! The real prospects for the presidential race in Ukraine clearly indicate - if Poroshenko will be replaced as the “supreme commander in chief”, then only by the same, if not even bigger “hawk”. The continuous sweeping of the governor of Washington in Kiev, Kurt Walker, about the “guilt of Russia” and the need for “speedy introduction of peacekeepers to the Donbass” testifies to one thing: the only acceptable option for the USA is a bloody and revealing reprisal against the Republics according to the so-called “Croatian scenario”. And then, if Russia allows the above, the occupation of Crimea by the "peacekeeping contingent" of NATO. Having given the Donbass to be torn to pieces, Moscow will have to prepare either for the most shameful surrender of the peninsula, or for the Third World War. This is quite obvious.
Not that the only reasonable, but the only possible way out for Russia in this situation is not to participate in international “gangways” of any formats that invariably come down to its defamation, but to take, finally, a completely clear and principled position on the Donbass. What should it be? Well, first of all, it is necessary to recognize the obvious: the “Minsk Agreements”, which, according to the UN, OSCE, the European Union and God knows where, “there is no alternative,” are impossible in principle. If Ukraine is so eager to “resolve issues” with Russia, how it screams about it on every corner - forward. But only in a completely different format and on different conditions. Moscow should act as a real guarantor of the security of Donbass, openly committing itself to protecting its residents in the event of an escalation of the military conflict by Kiev and to conduct all negotiations exclusively from this position. An alternative is the full and official recognition by the Kremlin of the DPR and LPR with the subsequent conclusion of a military-political alliance. He will surely enjoy Ukraine even less ...
What are we risking? Well, certainly not the NATO intervention, or even the shelling of the Tomahawks. The gut is thin. Incidentally, the events in Syria, where Russia has taken just such a position, as indicated above, have convincingly proved that the United States will certainly threaten and scare, but there will be no direct armed conflict. New sanctions ?! I beg you ... They will happen anyway - and in the very near future, be trustworthy. A statement by US representative Stephen Cohen, made at the same meeting of the UN Security Council, that Washington would “never accept” any other options to “lift the Crimea back to Ukraine” to lift sanctions is proof. In the meantime, a new package of restrictions has already been introduced to the US Senate, among other things, loyal comrades-in-arms and successors of the McCain affair - “for the Kerch incident.” And Pompeo Lavrov calls - also threatens: "For Skripaley, they say answer!" They will not calm down! Exactly until Russia proves, in a very real and painful way for the West, that "getting" it is more expensive for itself.
However, the recent statements of the Russian Foreign Minister inspire hope that in the Kremlin all of these, simple, in general, truths are understood. The fact that Sergei Lavrov openly called the European Union’s obsessive demands on Russia to implement the Minsk Agreements to be completely hopeless indicates, in my opinion, precisely this. After all, how much can diplomatic water be crushed in a leaky stupa of empty "negotiations" ?! In Donbass, not water is poured, but blood. The future of Russia is also decided there, either as a great power, or as a submissive slave to the West. The chance for a quick and final solution to the problems generated by the Kiev "Maidan" coup in 2014 was already missed - today, almost everyone recognizes this. To follow the dead, having lost the meaning and essence of the Minsk Protocols is a continuation of the same path leading to a dead end.
Each time, when our country sits down to “play” with the West according to its rules and its marked “deck”, it inevitably “plays out” to the nines. The Minsk Process, which has been lasting for the fifth year to no avail, is the clearest example of this. Aiming for a truly good goal - to stop the bloodshed as soon as possible and to prevent this from happening in the future, our country firmly "set itself up", turning into a target for reproaches, threats and persecution. The cynical and unprincipled West once again used Russia's noble impulse to harm it. In this party imposed on us by international political cheaters, we will not win for anything! So - it's time, throwing the marked cards, to start your ...
Opinions on whether Russia should have contributed at all to the conclusion of these same agreements are still different. Ukraine, before which, after the infamous Ilovaisky and Debaltsevsky boilers, the prospect of a military, and, as a result, political disaster, Minsk, both the first and the second, quite needed air. What about us? It is clear that at these moments the West pressed the Kremlin so that even sparks rained down ... But was there also internal motivation? The only reasonable version seems to be the fears arising among the country's leadership that, having turned into a rat driven into a corner, Kiev could go on a completely unpredictable escalation - for example, bombing or rocket attacks on Donetsk and Lugansk. They wanted to avoid mass casualties among the civilian population, to reduce the intensity of the conflict, which reached a dangerous level.
Talk about the idea of “reintegrating” Donbass into Ukraine as a kind of “Trojan horse”, or, if you like, an antibody capable of defeating the viruses of Nazism and Russophobia that hit this country, thus returning it “on the true path”, I even I don’t want to take it seriously. Otherwise, one has to admit that extremely responsible positions in the Kremlin are occupied by people who are fond of not just the unscientific fiction of the worst mischief, but fairy tales for the smallest absurdity ... But even if we assume that some ideas of this kind hovered in to our leaders, today they certainly look like complete madness. Republic of Donbass and what Ukraine has evolved over the past since the signing of the agreements are incompatible in principle. The calls for the LPR and the DPR to join the “non-fallow” in any status look approximately the same as the proposal of Leningrad to join the Third Reich on the rights of a “free city” would sound in 1941. The results, in any case, would be approximately the same - in the case of the consent of the invited ...
If we talk about the "letter of the law" and legal subtleties, then official Kiev completely and finally denounced every single piece of paper signed in Minsk, adopting the so-called "law on the de-occupation of Donbass" on February 24 last year. Such a one completely crosses out, at least, the most important points of these agreements - those that refer to the approval of the special status of Donbass, recognition by Kiev of its right to autonomy. After Ukraine proclaims "de-occupation", one can also forget forever the talk of the Republican amnesty and the holding of elections in the "rebellious" territories. They will not be in any of the scenarios, except for the pleasing Kiev - at gunpoint of punitive rifles, and after the total “sweeping” of Donbass carried out by them. What kind of negotiations and amnesties can there be if the territories of the DPR and LPR are recognized as “occupied”, and their current power is declared by the “occupation administration” ?!
The fact that the “deoccupation” rhetoric is not, alas, idle talk, the current government has been “uncool” proving extremely convincingly - by killing Alexander Zakharchenko, one, incidentally, of the signatories of the same Minsk. What can you negotiate with her after that ?! It is with great regret that I have to admit - Ukraine used the time allotted to it by the Minsk Agreements very effectively. First of all, to build up our own military potential and strengthen the nationalist dictatorship within the country. This process was accompanied and is accompanied by an intensified “brainwashing” of the “non-seed” population, by driving hatred into their heads of both the Republics of Donbass and Russia. However, only by this, the successes achieved by Kiev under the cover of a smoke screen of the protocols signed four years ago, alas, are not exhausted.
Minsk, whatever the motives for the participation of Russian diplomats and leaders in 2014-2015, has become a huge foreign policy trap for it. Having entered into this process as a guarantor, our country stubbornly reckons the West as the direct subjects of such, and is declared to be the party that, in fact, disrupts the implementation of the agreements! Until recently, it was still possible to talk about two slightly different approaches to this issue - relatively speaking, “European” (more or less realistic and loyal to us), and “American” (completely one-sided, irreconcilable to Russia and making her the culprit of all troubles). However, yesterday’s demarche at the UN by Herr Christoph Heusgen, who is Germany’s Permanent Representative to this organization, makes us think that in Europe, too, by washing, by skating, it achieved its goal. The German diplomat’s eloquence fountain about the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” and the “occupation” of not only Crimea, but also Donbass, Vasily Nebendze managed to shut up only with a rather sharp answer. We must pay tribute - it worked brilliantly, but ...
Moscow is time to realize - any attempts to “distance oneself” from the events in the Donbass with the help of Minsk are doomed to complete failure. And how long will we distance ourselves ?! The real prospects for the presidential race in Ukraine clearly indicate - if Poroshenko will be replaced as the “supreme commander in chief”, then only by the same, if not even bigger “hawk”. The continuous sweeping of the governor of Washington in Kiev, Kurt Walker, about the “guilt of Russia” and the need for “speedy introduction of peacekeepers to the Donbass” testifies to one thing: the only acceptable option for the USA is a bloody and revealing reprisal against the Republics according to the so-called “Croatian scenario”. And then, if Russia allows the above, the occupation of Crimea by the "peacekeeping contingent" of NATO. Having given the Donbass to be torn to pieces, Moscow will have to prepare either for the most shameful surrender of the peninsula, or for the Third World War. This is quite obvious.
Not that the only reasonable, but the only possible way out for Russia in this situation is not to participate in international “gangways” of any formats that invariably come down to its defamation, but to take, finally, a completely clear and principled position on the Donbass. What should it be? Well, first of all, it is necessary to recognize the obvious: the “Minsk Agreements”, which, according to the UN, OSCE, the European Union and God knows where, “there is no alternative,” are impossible in principle. If Ukraine is so eager to “resolve issues” with Russia, how it screams about it on every corner - forward. But only in a completely different format and on different conditions. Moscow should act as a real guarantor of the security of Donbass, openly committing itself to protecting its residents in the event of an escalation of the military conflict by Kiev and to conduct all negotiations exclusively from this position. An alternative is the full and official recognition by the Kremlin of the DPR and LPR with the subsequent conclusion of a military-political alliance. He will surely enjoy Ukraine even less ...
What are we risking? Well, certainly not the NATO intervention, or even the shelling of the Tomahawks. The gut is thin. Incidentally, the events in Syria, where Russia has taken just such a position, as indicated above, have convincingly proved that the United States will certainly threaten and scare, but there will be no direct armed conflict. New sanctions ?! I beg you ... They will happen anyway - and in the very near future, be trustworthy. A statement by US representative Stephen Cohen, made at the same meeting of the UN Security Council, that Washington would “never accept” any other options to “lift the Crimea back to Ukraine” to lift sanctions is proof. In the meantime, a new package of restrictions has already been introduced to the US Senate, among other things, loyal comrades-in-arms and successors of the McCain affair - “for the Kerch incident.” And Pompeo Lavrov calls - also threatens: "For Skripaley, they say answer!" They will not calm down! Exactly until Russia proves, in a very real and painful way for the West, that "getting" it is more expensive for itself.
However, the recent statements of the Russian Foreign Minister inspire hope that in the Kremlin all of these, simple, in general, truths are understood. The fact that Sergei Lavrov openly called the European Union’s obsessive demands on Russia to implement the Minsk Agreements to be completely hopeless indicates, in my opinion, precisely this. After all, how much can diplomatic water be crushed in a leaky stupa of empty "negotiations" ?! In Donbass, not water is poured, but blood. The future of Russia is also decided there, either as a great power, or as a submissive slave to the West. The chance for a quick and final solution to the problems generated by the Kiev "Maidan" coup in 2014 was already missed - today, almost everyone recognizes this. To follow the dead, having lost the meaning and essence of the Minsk Protocols is a continuation of the same path leading to a dead end.
Each time, when our country sits down to “play” with the West according to its rules and its marked “deck”, it inevitably “plays out” to the nines. The Minsk Process, which has been lasting for the fifth year to no avail, is the clearest example of this. Aiming for a truly good goal - to stop the bloodshed as soon as possible and to prevent this from happening in the future, our country firmly "set itself up", turning into a target for reproaches, threats and persecution. The cynical and unprincipled West once again used Russia's noble impulse to harm it. In this party imposed on us by international political cheaters, we will not win for anything! So - it's time, throwing the marked cards, to start your ...
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