Syrian scenario: should our VKS wait in Venezuela?
Venezuelan crisis continues to deepen. Now, at the suggestion of Washington, the European Union has recognized the rebel Juan Guaido as head of state, despite the presence of the legitimate president Nicolas Maduro. Some representatives of the Venezuelan elites and the military elite have already begun to openly run across to Guaido, whom the West has designated as the winner. The country is actually split and is gradually starting to move toward civil war and foreign military intervention. The Kremlin defiantly supports the Maduro regime. But will he be able to repeat the trick that worked out with Bashar al-Assad this time?
The possibility of sending the US military to his “backyard” in Venezuela was directly stated by Donald Trump:
Earlier, his adviser John Bolton hinted at the same thing with his “performance” with a notebook. A senior US military has already flown to Colombia, neighboring Venezuela, and the other day, Trump himself will meet with the Colombian president. The subject of discussion will obviously be the situation in Caracas. But is five thousand soldiers more or less to overthrow Maduro? And is it worth seriously counting on sending the Russian Aerospace Forces to Venezuela to help the Venezuelan miners?
Despite the total superiority of the US army over the Venezuelan, one can hardly expect its full-scale invasion. American voters do not like it when their soldiers are brought home in coffins or in pieces in wheelchairs. Caracas is not at all helpless, since it acquired modern weapons in Russia ahead of time. The usual Anglo-Saxon manner of bombing “Aboriginal with bows” with impunity will not work here. Their cruise missiles and planes will be shot down with the help of the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Tor-M1 systems. By the way, Venezuela has its own military aviation. On earth, the U.S. military will face modernized Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. And no one has canceled such an unpleasant thing for the interventionists as the guerrilla war in the tropics.
Political scientist Konstantin Blokhin adheres to a similar point of view:
Therefore, the US war with official Caracas “by proxy” seems more likely. What can the Pentagon really do?
At first, with American support, the Venezuelan Free Army can be created and armed, which will be given to help Juan Guaido. Neighboring Colombia will most likely serve as its rear.
Secondly, under the pretext of protecting humanitarian aid distribution points, Colombian and Brazilian troops may be deployed to Venezuela. In the future, under various occasions, their presence will expand.
Thirdly, the US military may be transferred to Colombia or Venezuela itself to some border province loyal to Guaido. There they will “moderate” the processes on the spot, intervening as necessary.
Fourthly, on the side of Guaido, the notorious American PMCs may be involved.
FifthlyUS intelligence agencies may attempt to physically eliminate President Nicolas Maduro.
How can the Kremlin answer all this?
In fact, Russia has already seriously helped Venezuela by selling her weapons for $ 12 billion. Sending the expeditionary force even to Syria in the literal sense of the word over the three seas was largely an adventure. Arranging something like this in the US “backyard” can be an adventure in its highest manifestation with the possibility of escalating into a direct conflict with Washington. Perhaps the Kremlin should limit itself to help at the level of PMCs, military advisers, and arms supplies.
But if someone is burning with the desire to seriously fight, then there is no need to sail overseas when there is, for example, Ukraine, where almost the same problems exist.
The possibility of sending the US military to his “backyard” in Venezuela was directly stated by Donald Trump:
Of course, this is possible, this is one of the options.
Earlier, his adviser John Bolton hinted at the same thing with his “performance” with a notebook. A senior US military has already flown to Colombia, neighboring Venezuela, and the other day, Trump himself will meet with the Colombian president. The subject of discussion will obviously be the situation in Caracas. But is five thousand soldiers more or less to overthrow Maduro? And is it worth seriously counting on sending the Russian Aerospace Forces to Venezuela to help the Venezuelan miners?
Despite the total superiority of the US army over the Venezuelan, one can hardly expect its full-scale invasion. American voters do not like it when their soldiers are brought home in coffins or in pieces in wheelchairs. Caracas is not at all helpless, since it acquired modern weapons in Russia ahead of time. The usual Anglo-Saxon manner of bombing “Aboriginal with bows” with impunity will not work here. Their cruise missiles and planes will be shot down with the help of the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Tor-M1 systems. By the way, Venezuela has its own military aviation. On earth, the U.S. military will face modernized Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. And no one has canceled such an unpleasant thing for the interventionists as the guerrilla war in the tropics.
Political scientist Konstantin Blokhin adheres to a similar point of view:
Venezuela could turn into a Latin American Vietnam for Trump. The intervention consolidates the Venezuelans against America and will only strengthen the Maduro regime.
Therefore, the US war with official Caracas “by proxy” seems more likely. What can the Pentagon really do?
At first, with American support, the Venezuelan Free Army can be created and armed, which will be given to help Juan Guaido. Neighboring Colombia will most likely serve as its rear.
Secondly, under the pretext of protecting humanitarian aid distribution points, Colombian and Brazilian troops may be deployed to Venezuela. In the future, under various occasions, their presence will expand.
Thirdly, the US military may be transferred to Colombia or Venezuela itself to some border province loyal to Guaido. There they will “moderate” the processes on the spot, intervening as necessary.
Fourthly, on the side of Guaido, the notorious American PMCs may be involved.
FifthlyUS intelligence agencies may attempt to physically eliminate President Nicolas Maduro.
How can the Kremlin answer all this?
In fact, Russia has already seriously helped Venezuela by selling her weapons for $ 12 billion. Sending the expeditionary force even to Syria in the literal sense of the word over the three seas was largely an adventure. Arranging something like this in the US “backyard” can be an adventure in its highest manifestation with the possibility of escalating into a direct conflict with Washington. Perhaps the Kremlin should limit itself to help at the level of PMCs, military advisers, and arms supplies.
But if someone is burning with the desire to seriously fight, then there is no need to sail overseas when there is, for example, Ukraine, where almost the same problems exist.
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