The moon risks getting to China
Half a century ago, there was an unprecedented contest in the history of mankind for the right to be considered the conquerors of the moon. Two superpowers participated in this lunar race - the Soviet Union and the United States of America.
It is believed that in this contest the USA won a complete and unconditional victory. We can agree with this statement if we compare the results of the two countries. The United States made three overflights around the surface of a satellite of the earth and six landings on its surface. The Soviet asset has only one flight around the moon of a spacecraft with two Central Asian turtles on board.
After a long pause, the main world space powers again turned their attention to the satellite of the Earth. The new lunar race is very different from the previous one. There were more participants, since at least one more participant was added to the previous rivals - China. The competitors set themselves completely different goals. All of them plan to reach them by the 30s of this century.
Let us consider in more detail each of the rivals.
Соединенные Штаты Америки
Although the United States was the undisputed winner in the last lunar race, this time the chances of success for the Americans are close to zero. This power is still considered the world leader in a number of industries, but it seems that things are not going so well in the US space industry.
Actually, technologically, the Americans have no problems. The main problem is the lack of a clear space program. This is due to the fact that the new US president comes to the White House with his vision of space exploration plans. And most often they are fundamentally different from the program of their predecessor.
At the beginning of the 70s, under Bush Jr., Americans began to implement the Constellation project, which involved several flights to the moon, the creation of a stationary base there, and later flights to Mars. With the advent of Obama, who was then replaced by Trump, this ambitious program has transformed into a much more modest one. It is supposed to launch into the far near-moon orbit of the LOG-P space station. This device will be located approximately XNUMX thousand kilometers from the surface of the moon.
Although Americans talk about landings from this module on the lunar surface and the further exploration of Mars, experts from other countries doubt the practical feasibility of the station. Some of them believe that in addition to successful photographs of the lunar surface, nothing else can be expected from this project.
It is planned that by 2024 the contractor for the construction of the station will be selected. This means that the project itself will be completed no earlier than 2030. Of course, provided that the new administration again does not replay everything.
Russian Federation
The Russian lunar program looks much more interesting than the American one. In it, the ultimate goal is the creation on the moon of a settlement of robotic avatars, occasionally visited by people for research purposes. Full implementation of the program is scheduled for approximately 2035.
The first step is to launch unmanned vehicles that perform communication and control functions, first to Earth, and then to the lunar orbit. Already at this stage, it becomes clear that the program does not stand still, but is executed with a significant lag behind the schedule.
The landing module has already been developed, but it should be borne in mind that, unlike the United States, Russia does not have practical experience of landing on the surface of the moon.
A positive factor that speaks of good chances for the Russian space program is that Russia has a super-heavy rocket to deliver cargo to the Moon. In general, it is now difficult to judge Russia's chances of success. Much will still depend on the funds allocated and political factors.
People's Republic of China
Although China joined the ranks of the space powers much later than Russia and the United States, it has probably the greatest chance of winning the lunar race.
A noticeable difference between the PRC and its competitors is the lack of information on plans and deadlines for their implementation. The Chinese do not make it public, but simply silently do their job, and very successfully. Their chances of success can only be judged by the known achievements and existing potential.
Now they are methodically practicing an unmanned program, after which, apparently, they will begin manned flights.
As practice shows, China, mastering new industries, in a short time takes one of the leading positions. Most likely, space will not be an exception.
And in the implementation of their lunar program, they have already achieved impressive results. At the moment, China launches 39 space rockets per year, which neither of the countries in the world that are exploiting space have done or have not done in the past two decades.
Recently, the whole world watched the successful landing of the Chinese space module on the far side of the moon, which took place on January 3, 2019.
Now a lot says that we are witnessing the birth of a new space leader, on whom the whole world will be equal. Although Beijing entered the lunar race later than its rivals, it is likely to overtake them “on a turn”. And even if, in technical terms, the Chinese are missing something, they, as has already happened more than once, will buy, borrow or copy everything that is missing.
Despite China's great chances of victory, Russia, too, has repeatedly surprised history with its technological breakthroughs.
But no matter who becomes the winner, it is clear that in the next 15-20 years, earthlings will begin the practical use of the resources of their satellite.
It is believed that in this contest the USA won a complete and unconditional victory. We can agree with this statement if we compare the results of the two countries. The United States made three overflights around the surface of a satellite of the earth and six landings on its surface. The Soviet asset has only one flight around the moon of a spacecraft with two Central Asian turtles on board.
After a long pause, the main world space powers again turned their attention to the satellite of the Earth. The new lunar race is very different from the previous one. There were more participants, since at least one more participant was added to the previous rivals - China. The competitors set themselves completely different goals. All of them plan to reach them by the 30s of this century.
Let us consider in more detail each of the rivals.
Соединенные Штаты Америки
Although the United States was the undisputed winner in the last lunar race, this time the chances of success for the Americans are close to zero. This power is still considered the world leader in a number of industries, but it seems that things are not going so well in the US space industry.
Actually, technologically, the Americans have no problems. The main problem is the lack of a clear space program. This is due to the fact that the new US president comes to the White House with his vision of space exploration plans. And most often they are fundamentally different from the program of their predecessor.
At the beginning of the 70s, under Bush Jr., Americans began to implement the Constellation project, which involved several flights to the moon, the creation of a stationary base there, and later flights to Mars. With the advent of Obama, who was then replaced by Trump, this ambitious program has transformed into a much more modest one. It is supposed to launch into the far near-moon orbit of the LOG-P space station. This device will be located approximately XNUMX thousand kilometers from the surface of the moon.
Although Americans talk about landings from this module on the lunar surface and the further exploration of Mars, experts from other countries doubt the practical feasibility of the station. Some of them believe that in addition to successful photographs of the lunar surface, nothing else can be expected from this project.
It is planned that by 2024 the contractor for the construction of the station will be selected. This means that the project itself will be completed no earlier than 2030. Of course, provided that the new administration again does not replay everything.
Russian Federation
The Russian lunar program looks much more interesting than the American one. In it, the ultimate goal is the creation on the moon of a settlement of robotic avatars, occasionally visited by people for research purposes. Full implementation of the program is scheduled for approximately 2035.
The first step is to launch unmanned vehicles that perform communication and control functions, first to Earth, and then to the lunar orbit. Already at this stage, it becomes clear that the program does not stand still, but is executed with a significant lag behind the schedule.
The landing module has already been developed, but it should be borne in mind that, unlike the United States, Russia does not have practical experience of landing on the surface of the moon.
A positive factor that speaks of good chances for the Russian space program is that Russia has a super-heavy rocket to deliver cargo to the Moon. In general, it is now difficult to judge Russia's chances of success. Much will still depend on the funds allocated and political factors.
People's Republic of China
Although China joined the ranks of the space powers much later than Russia and the United States, it has probably the greatest chance of winning the lunar race.
A noticeable difference between the PRC and its competitors is the lack of information on plans and deadlines for their implementation. The Chinese do not make it public, but simply silently do their job, and very successfully. Their chances of success can only be judged by the known achievements and existing potential.
Now they are methodically practicing an unmanned program, after which, apparently, they will begin manned flights.
As practice shows, China, mastering new industries, in a short time takes one of the leading positions. Most likely, space will not be an exception.
And in the implementation of their lunar program, they have already achieved impressive results. At the moment, China launches 39 space rockets per year, which neither of the countries in the world that are exploiting space have done or have not done in the past two decades.
Recently, the whole world watched the successful landing of the Chinese space module on the far side of the moon, which took place on January 3, 2019.
Now a lot says that we are witnessing the birth of a new space leader, on whom the whole world will be equal. Although Beijing entered the lunar race later than its rivals, it is likely to overtake them “on a turn”. And even if, in technical terms, the Chinese are missing something, they, as has already happened more than once, will buy, borrow or copy everything that is missing.
Despite China's great chances of victory, Russia, too, has repeatedly surprised history with its technological breakthroughs.
But no matter who becomes the winner, it is clear that in the next 15-20 years, earthlings will begin the practical use of the resources of their satellite.
Information