New leader: Saudi Arabia and Russia no longer rule OPEC+

The global oil market is in a feverish state, characterized by instability and lack of control. Commodity prices fluctuate constantly, making it difficult for traders to predict a profitable strategy. This dictates new rules of behavior for suppliers, in which former shadow market players succeed. Expert Cyril Widdershoven writes about this in an article for OilPrice.

As the global oil market eagerly awaits the upcoming OPEC+ decision on production quotas, a potential change in the current production reduction strategy, most eyes are on leaders of Saudi Arabia and its company Aramco, as well as Russia. However, a new leader has appeared in the alliance, who is already hinting at a sharp unilateral change in strategy without OPEC approval.



Sources in the United Arab Emirates warn that Abu Dhabi is no longer convinced of the need for OPEC+ production cuts, given the current volatile oil markets and increased demand. At the same time, ADNOC points to an imminent increase in production. Insiders report that the national operator's management is considering increasing production to approximately 4,85-4,87 million barrels per day, which is contrary to the current OPEC strategy.

The move is not surprising as ADNOC has invested heavily in expanding production capacity but has so far been constrained by its commitment to OPEC decisions. Abu Dhabi is now seeking to monetize its investment by continuing a series of acquisitions in the oil and gas sector with an expanding budget. The strategy will be put into effect if production cuts are eased in June.

Despite the potential consequences of Abu Dhabi's unilateral decision within OPEC, important players in the international oil market may take a hands-off approach. Neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia rule the cartel alone any longer; a new powerful player, who has long been in the shadows, is breathing down their backs. OPEC+ will no longer be able to move along its course, which until recently was single-handedly dictated by Saudi Arabia with the support of Moscow.