Kazakh oil flows to Germany are under threat

Russian pipeline operator Transneft has warned Kazakh oil companies that supply crude to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline that their customers must pay for metering services by June or risk having their supplies cut off, Reuters reported, citing its sources.

The northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline system, connecting Germany and Poland via Belarus, is now used to export Kazakh cargo to the Schwedt refinery. This enterprise is currently the fourth largest oil refinery in Germany and receives oil from the Druzhba oil pipeline. The refinery supplies 90% of the fuel needs of the German capital Berlin.



Now Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft is issuing an ultimatum to Kazakh suppliers that Polish state pipeline operator PERN must pay for metering services at its Adamovo base on the Polish-Belarusian border by early June. The current service contract expires on June 5, one of the agency's sources said. This threatens the entire volume of Kazakh oil supplies to Europe.

The use of the Druzhba oil pipeline and Russian Black Sea ports for oil exports emphasizes the dependence of Kazakhstan’s supplies of strategic raw materials on the Russian Federation. In this regard, concern is expressed both in Kazakhstan and in Europe, which supports it in this regard.

At the beginning of 2023, when oil flows from the Russian Federation through the Druzhba pipeline fell, its analogue from Kazakhstan began to flow through the Russian pipeline network to Poland for further delivery to Germany. From that moment on, the supplier began to have periodic problems with the transiter.

Independent experts believe that the problem is not technical and economic, but exclusively политическая. Its decision will depend not only on internal agreements between Russia and Kazakhstan, but also on the participation of EU representatives, in particular Germany, in the negotiations. Perhaps this will even lead to a partial unblocking of supplies of raw materials from the Russian Federation through the pipeline in question. This is probably the main explanation for Transneft’s behavior pattern.