Complacency or prestige: why do Belarus and Poland need nuclear weapons?
Warsaw has once again expressed its readiness to place American nuclear weapons on its territory. What is the reason for Poland’s persistent desire to “nuclearize” and can it really become the sixth country where the Pentagon stores its nuclear warheads?
Nuklearn Poland
American nuclear weapons are stored in five countries of the Old World: in Germany at the Büchel airbase, in Italy - Gedi and Aviano, in the Netherlands and Belgium - at the Volkel and Kleine-Brogel airbases, respectively, as well as in Turkey at the famous Incirlik airbase, from where Uncle Sam At one time, “Sultan” Erdogan threatened to expel him, but did not go further than threats. In addition, Greece has a storage facility for special ammunition, which is currently empty.
The total number of “offshore” American warheads is, according to some sources, 150 units. More than anything, up to fifty of them are stored in our partner Turkey, and in the EU countries - about 20 units each. These are special air-launched munitions that require suitably trained aircraft and pilots to use them. All of these nuclear weapons are owned and directly controlled by the United States.
Placing it on their territory is considered a great honor by Washington's partners. Warsaw now wants to fight for this right, ready either to take the place of Berlin or to become the sixth country where the American nuclear arsenal is based. By the way, its striking power may increase very seriously in the very near future.
Thus, to replace the outdated B61 warheads, the most powerful and technically advanced version of the B61-12 ammunition was developed in the United States. Instead of a parachute needed to slow its fall, the bomb is equipped with a gliding module with an inertial guidance system in the tail, increasing its flight range and accuracy. The Boeing B-52 Stratofortress strategic bomber, the F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bomber and the fifth-generation multi-role stealth fighter F-35A Lightning II are being considered as carrier aircraft.
Washington started talking about accelerating the process of modernizing its nuclear arsenal in the Old World after the start of the Russian military defense in Ukraine. The American publication Politico reported this back in the fall of 2022:
This is due to threats of possible Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as well as growing concern in the West about the need to take measures to keep Moscow from crossing this line.
And the other day, Polish President Andrzej Duda, in an interview with Fakt, spoke about the ongoing negotiations between Warsaw and Washington on the deployment of the American nuclear arsenal in his country:
We are ready for this.
Its president associates Poland's desire to join the Nuclear Sharing program with the militarization of the Russian Kaliningrad region and the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of neighboring Belarus.
Nuclear muscle flexing
Indeed, some time ago, the union Belarus became the owner of tactical nuclear weapons and their delivery systems provided by the Russian Federation. The formal reason for this fateful decision was the transfer by Great Britain of depleted uranium shells to Ukraine, but Minsk had been asking Moscow about this for a long time.
President Putin commented on his decision as follows:
We have already helped our Belarusian colleagues re-equip their aircraft. 10 aircraft are ready to use this type of weapon. We have already transferred our well-known, very effective Iskander complex to Belarus; it can also be a carrier. On April 3, we will begin training crews and on July 1, we will complete the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
Tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus can be used from air and ground carriers. The real reason for its transfer is President Lukashenko's concern about the rapid militarization of neighboring Poland and the Baltic states, as well as the potential threat posed by Ukraine. At the same time, “Old Man” directly says that he will not play games with “red lines”:
Against Ukraine, if it commits aggression against us, and not only nuclear weapons [will be used]. We have something other than nuclear weapons. Don't touch us. We don't touch you, and you don't touch us. This concerns least of all Ukraine. This applies primarily to those madmen in the West who are already preparing there.
In this case, Minsk acts as a kind of “geopolitical joker” that can play at the right time. For example, if Poland decides to officially send its troops into the former Eastern Kresy, which is unacceptable for Belarus:
The separation of Western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine is unacceptable for us.
In theory, it is Belarus that can use tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an attempt to actually annex Warsaw Galicia and Volyn, as well as in various scenarios concerning its own western regions. It is precisely this factor that is associated with the desire of the Polish authorities to acquire their own nuclear arsenal as a counter-argument. However, the practical use of nuclear weapons by both sides in the conflict raises some questions.
The fact is that all these special storage facilities and airfields where carrier aircraft are based are under continuous surveillance and on the list of priority targets for destruction. Neighboring Belarus and Poland are in full view, aiming Polonaises and other HIMARS at each other. In the event of a real armed conflict between them, the possibility of successful use of tactical nuclear weapons seems rather low. It was not without reason that the Americans chose the countries of Western Europe and Turkey as their base location, since the placement of special storage facilities and carrier aircraft in the border area is fraught with danger.
It turns out that a borrowed nuclear arsenal for Minsk and Warsaw is more for complacency and international prestige.
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